I was waiting for someone else to break out the idea that the "Punto Trade" ain't all it's cracked up to be. Obviously, the payroll flexibility and signings that allowed were proximate causes of the 2013 Postseason Tournament Championship, which means you'd never say you wanted to undo it. But, if you just go by WAR/$ since the trade, I wonder how much ahead the Red Sox come out? $65 million on Gonzalez was replaced by $45 million on Napoli for 1 good season. Similarly, you got only one good season out of Victorino for $39 million. Beckett vs Dempster/Masterson? How much did you really "save?" I'm sure they come out ahead, but the trade was not this lopsided boon in terms of net WAR/$ it's made out to be. That Napoli and Victorino concentrated all the net value of the replacements in 2013 while Lester and Papi singlehandedly delivered the postseason is what makes it a great trade.
Ignoring any production/salary from 2012, the team traded:
- Carl Crawford, paid $60.7M for 5.8 fWAR (worth $43.4M) thru 2015, plus $41.8M for (projected) ~1.5 WAR (worth $12M) 2016-17. Net value of -$17.3M thru 2015, -$47.1M total.
- Adrian Gonzalez, paid $63M for 9.4 WAR (worth $72.8M) thru 2015, plus $64M for (projected) ~6.5 WAR (worth ~$54M) in 2016-18. Net value of +$9.8M thru 2015, total net value of zero.
- Josh Beckett, paid $31.6M for 0.6 WAR (worth $4.6M) thru 2014. Net value of -$27M.
- Nick Punto, paid $1.5M for 1.9 WAR (worth $14.3M) in 2013. Net value of $12.8M.
Together, the players traded were paid $156.8M from 2013 to 2015, and produced 17.7 WAR. They will continue to be paid $105.8M from 2016 onward, and are projected to produce ~8 WAR. That's a net "value" of -$21.7M from 2013 to 2015, plus a projected -$39.8M down the road. Yes, the most valuable player+contract the Red Sox gave up was Nick Punto.
In that trade, we acquired RDLR and Allen Webster, who were paid a combined $2M for $1.1M of production in 2013 and 2014. They were traded for Wade Miley, who was paid $3.5M for 2.6 WAR (worth $20.6M) in 2015, and subsequently traded for five years of Carson Smith. Net value of +$16.2M from 2013 to 2015, plus whatever Carson Smith does down the road.
They also used that money on the following players before the 2013 season:
- Shane Victorino, paid $39M for 6.3 WAR, worth $46.8M, from 2013 to 2015. Net value of +$7.8M.
- Mike Napoli, paid $37M for 3.3 WAR, worth $25.2M, from 2013 to 2015. Net value of -$11.8M
- Steven Drew, paid $19.6M for 3.6 WAR, worth $26.8, from 2013 to 2014. Net value of +$7.2M
- Ryan Dempster, paid $26.5M for 0.5 WAR, worth $3.9M, from 2013 to 2014. Net value -$22.6M
- Koji Uehara, paid $17.4M for 5.6 WAR, worth $42.1M, from 2013 to 2015, plus $9M for (projected) 1.1 WAR worth ~$8M in 2016. Net value +$23.7M
- Jonny Gomes, paid $10M for 1.2 WAR, worth $9M, from 2013 to 2014. Net value -$1M
Note that extensions and second FA contracts are included. If the player was dealt in midseason, his full salary for that season is still counted but his production with the new team is not.
Together, these FA acquisitions were paid $149.5M between 2013 and 2015, and produced 20.5 WAR. That is a net value of +$4.3M over that period. The only player still on the books is Koji, who projects to basically break even on his contract.
If we only look at 2013-2015, the Red Sox went from paying $156.8M for 17.7 WAR to paying $155M for 23.3 WAR. If we add in 2016 and onward, they went from paying $262.8M for ~26 WAR to paying $164M for 24.4 WAR, plus whatever salary/production we expect out of Carson Smith.
Alternately, they gave up assets with a net value of -$61.5M and gained assets with a net value of +$20.5M (plus Carson Smith).
In conclusion, It seem clear that the Punto trade was indeed a very good deal for the Red Sox, and they followed it up with a reasonably efficient (if massively frontloaded) free agency period before the 2013 season. I'm not sure if this meets expectations for lopsidedness or not, but I'm still impressed and thankful that Cherington pulled it off.