Conference Realignment Thread

[berniecarbo1]

You are the one who said BC and Wake bring nothing to the table. And yet you rank Maryland ahead of BC? Have you checked the record of BC-Maryland over the past 5 years, and what happened to the Terps last year, at home against BC? Look, you can root for whoever you want and if that is ND, so be it. But don't sit there and make a statement that BC brings nothing to the ACC. If it is the small lens of TV viewership, then really the only programs that mean anything nationally or even on the East Coast are FSU and Miami...and to a lesser extent Va Tech. The rest of the league is regional and no one outside of Tobacco Road really gives a damn. Ga tech is not a factor in that area as they are dwarfed not only by Georgia but also Clemson. So if you want to give your shots to BC and Wake, go for it.

Your statement that the ACC bet bringing in better talent would increase ratings is not the major reason, if a legitimate reason at all, they brought in BC. BC went to the ACC because they knew the BE was in trouble back 10 years ago, in fact all the football memebers knew it. One of our fellow SOSH brothers posted the minutes of the meetings back then and everybody wanted out. The ACC needed a 12th team. They needed a team not to boost ratings in a market that was not in the geograhical region of the conference (Mid Atlantic and Southeastern Coastal States)but one that was competitive, but not overally competitive in football and basketball. They needed a team that was legitimate but not over the top in athletics and had a good academic background. BC, along with a few other BE schools met the bill. BC was invited and went. TV ratings had nothing to do with it. A Championship game in football and the revenue that would produce was the basis for the ACC inviting BC.

As an ND fan you should be more concerned with the long term health of your program than pissing over two allegedly mediocre D1 programs.

 

[TomRicardo]

Yes, I stay awake at night worrying about the second most valuable college program in which any conference would immediately accept into it and has its own tv contract with a major network until 2015 will survive. DAMN THOSE LONG NIGHTS.

I am not taking shots at Wake and BC for the hell of it. They are the worst programs in ACC. BC has awful awful ratings. Only Duke has worst ratings in football and no one watches BC basketball. The Hockey Team is the only program worth a damn. BC has been on a freefall for a while.

I would be worried as BC fan because your team is the second least valuable school in conference about to get raided. Since the move to ACC, BC has lost any relevance it ever had in college football and actively has been trying to block any regional school to join its league. I hope they end up in the MAC and die a slow death. They deserve it.

 

[cannonball 1729]

Davidson likely not leaving SoCo for CAA.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-05-26/bob-mckillop-davidson-unlikely-to-leave-southern-for-caa

While I don't doubt that Davidson is staying in SoCon, all the quotes in that piece are from a week ago. I don't think we'll hear anything official from Davidson until they meet with the rest of the SoCon administrators in Asheville this week.

 

[kenneycb]

Yes, I stay awake at night worrying about the second most valuable college program in which any conference would immediately accept into it and has its own tv contract with a major network until 2015 will survive. DAMN THOSE LONG NIGHTS.

I am not taking shots at Wake and BC for the hell of it. They are the worst programs in ACC. BC has awful awful ratings. Only Duke has worst ratings in football and no one watches BC basketball. The Hockey Team is the only program worth a damn. BC has been on a freefall for a while.

I would be worried as BC fan because your team is the second least valuable school in conference about to get raided. Since the move to ACC, BC has lost any relevance it ever had in college football and actively has been trying to block any regional school to join its league. I hope they end up in the MAC and die a slow death. They deserve it.

Before you keep talking about BC, you should probably familiarize yourself with BC and their performance since joining the ACC. And I'm talking about both their basketball and football teams. Your comments on their performance are laughable and fly in the face of all fact, with a specific focus on the "for a while" part. Never change.

 

[kenneycb]

BC was on the bubble in Donahie's first year as well, something like the last four out, so it's not as if they've been bottom feeders for the past five years. Hell, for as much football has sucked they weren't unmitigated disasters until last year.

 

[Doug Beerabelli]

At least BC is on the inside looking out, as opposed to UConn who is on the outside, looking in. I would rather be at the feast and have the last seat at the table than be out in the hallway pandering to get a seat...and everyone walking past me. If you think BC and Wake bring nothing to the table, and you may have a small point when it comes to television ratings, they obviously (at least in BC's case) carry a lot of weight in that league as they seem to have been the obstacle that kept UConn out of the ACC. And the football teams, despite thier lousy conditions today, were pretty competitive within a weak ACC by collectively playing in 3 ACCCGs and Wake played in the Orange Bowl. UConn? yes, they went to the Fiesta as we all know, but again as a result of playing in yet another weak football conference. I gave them props on the UConn thread back then, but like BC and Wake, they seem to have not been able to sustain it, they too have appeared to regress to an average D1 football program.

You have to stop thinking hoops has any releveance to any of this realignment stuff...it doesn't. BC gave the ACC a 12th team to start a Championship game, and at the end of the day, it stands in overall better shape than UConn, as far as its athletic future in D1 is concerned. If you could change places on the athletic landscape with BC and UConn, given that the ACC has a TV deal in place, is fully capable of reaching out to other D1 programs to expand the league should the FL schools and or Clemson leave (bear in mind Clemson originally was in the SEC, and to dismiss the ability of the ACC to grab a team out of the SEC or perhaps going after another team in the South or Northeast is shortsighted, just look at the Big 12 today), I think you would say BC. Your hatred and jealousy of BC is so transparent it is laughable. Hartford is the #30 TV market in the US, Boston is #7, metro DC is #8, Raleigh-Durham is #24. Wake is #25 in the US News and World Report natonal rankings, BC is #31, UConn is #58. I think BC and Wake bring a lot to the table. They bring as much if not more than UConn. So if BC and Wake are nothing, I guess that makes UConn nothing as well. If you want to compare apples to apples its UConn and Maryland. But if you think the ACC would somehow drop the Terps for UConn or bring in another Maryland type I think you are wrong. Come up with a better game plan as to why UConn should supplant current and in some cases longstanding members of the ACC.

Did TR even mention UConn in his post? You mentioned them about 10 times in your response. Thou doth protest too much

And like I said earlier, both BC and UConn both look they are in a world of conference limbo suck in the near future. If "we are better Than UConn" is your college footie version of " Serenity Now," just say so and I'm sure the UConn fans here will stop responding to these posts in the future.

 

[Infield Infidel]

The problem with that is the television contract gets decimated. If VTech, GTech, Clemson, and FSU leave the ACC the television contract would be cut drastically. FSU and Clemson count for about 1/4 of the ACC's value. If what you proposed happened the ACC with its current contract with ESPN would be paying teams at best 8 million a year.

The Big East at least can try to get NBC's new sports network to bid. They are not going to get back to 14.4 million ESPN offered but the Big East will end up making more than decimated ACC.

Edit - ACC's new deal says they get 17.1 million a year but would go down below 12 million with the loss of just Clemson and FSU. You lose around 2 million for each of Miami, VTech, and UNC that leaves.

I don't think UNC or Miami leaves. UNC is tethered to Duke, and they get to run the house and pick who gets into the ACC. Miami has been on probation 3 or 4 times in the last 20 years; I don't think the Big12 wants to deal with it, and if Miami gets into trouble competing with big state schools like FSU and Clemson, what would they have to do to compete with monsters like Texas, Oklahoma and OkSU? Miami was a big fish in the old Big East, and they'd be the same in the ACC sans FSU/Clemson/VaTech.

Second, the only Big East draw for the remaining ACC teams is basketball, but I don't think BC/UNC/UVa would want to go to Boise, San Diego, Memphis, Dallas(SMU) and Houston every other year for football and the latter three for basketball. (the Big East really pigeon-holed themselves adding those schools). Being in a conference with bball-only AND football-only schools is anachronistic today, and a headache you only deal with if you have lesser options. Everyone remaining in the Big East, except Rutgers, joined in the last decade from shit conferences or FCS; going to the ACC they would get to replace GTown/Nova/St.Johns with UNC/Duke/Wake, and keep Temple and UConn. ACC keeps football afloat. it's a win-win out of the crappy options.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

All this realignment will basically marginalize the entire northeast and mid-atlantic area in terms of football rooting interest. Notre Dame and PSU will have followers there, but realistically neither team will be competitive nationally for a long, long time if ever. Maybe PSU in 10 years or something. It will be an interesting test on TV ratings if the four superpower model that shuts out the largest population base works in terms of advertisers. It may, I have no idea. I cannot imagine that college sports interest is going to grow in the northeast and mid-atlantic ares with the death of the Big East and ACC. I probably will stop caring about college football and if UConn is marginalized, college hoops, too. will advertisers care if their ratings are hitting a larger chunk below the mason-dixon line and in the midwest than in the more affluent northeast?

I wonder how thi will all work out in the end. I'm sure the four conferences will make a ton of $$ at first, but will overall interest wane and eventually the pie shrink materially? I really have no idea, but someone should take a look at this. could make for a nice thesis or book one day

 

[TomRicardo]

That would be like saying NASCAR is doomed to fail because no one in the Northeast pays attention to it. There is more than enough interest elsewhere to continue to drive the sport.

Also when I say BC has diminished I am talking about the ratings. Since the move to the ACC their ratings have been horrible. Even when they got up to a number 2 ranking with Matt Ryan as QB, no one was watching. They set an all time low for ABC last year against Miami, Since when was a Miami/BC game unwatchable. I understand they suck now but the ACC has completely failed to drive a market in New England. If anything it has got worse.

And in the end game of all this, ratings are what matter. BC does not get eye balls to a television set especially in the ACC.

 

[cannonball 1729]

That would be like saying NASCAR is doomed to fail because no one in the Northeast pays attention to it. There is more than enough interest elsewhere to continue to drive the sport.

"Not doomed to fail" seems a pretty low threshold for college football's ambitions, doesn't it? NASCAR is profitable, but they're clearly stuck a tier below the four major sports, and their inability to capture certain regions of the country has a lot to do with it. Their 2010 revenues were closer to the MLS than they were to the NHL. This isn't a model that college football should be following.

 

[ethangl]

Their 2010 revenues were closer to the MLS than they were to the NHL. This isn't a model that college football should be following.

???

Google tells me NASCAR's annual revenue is right around the NBA level -- $3.5-4 billion.

 

[kenneycb]

That would be like saying NASCAR is doomed to fail because no one in the Northeast pays attention to it. There is more than enough interest elsewhere to continue to drive the sport.

Also when I say BC has diminished I am talking about the ratings. Since the move to the ACC their ratings have been horrible. Even when they got up to a number 2 ranking with Matt Ryan as QB, no one was watching. They set an all time low for ABC last year against Miami, Since when was a Miami/BC game unwatchable. I understand they suck now but the ACC has completely failed to drive a market in New England. If anything it has got worse.

And in the end game of all this, ratings are what matter. BC does not get eye balls to a television set especially in the ACC.

Could you provide anything other than anecdotal evidence? I'm legitimately curious.

Edit: And the big thing driving the suck that is the ACC is the fact Miami and FSU have been jokes, relatively speaking, for the better part of the last decade. Which makes all the talk about FSU leaving for greener pastures all the more amusing.

 

[grsharky7]

This whole realignment thing is getting really tiring. I wonder if it will ever truly end, even if we get the 4 super conferences. As a WVU alum I have kept a close eye on all of this since WVU was in real danger of being left in the cold. I believe college sports as we know it is about to go by the wayside. The rivalries that made college sports so great are dying. A few of the big ones are going to survive (OSU-Michigan, Bama-Auburn, Duke-Carolina), but many others have died and they are most likely not coming back. I'll love it when Texas, Oklahoma, or OK. State come to Morgantown, but I'm going to miss playing Pitt. Just a shame.

College sports should look at NASCAR as a warning of what can happen when you chase "new markets" and big money. NASCAR was a booming sport 15 years ago and they couldn't put in new seats fast enough. Everyone wanted in the sport and it was exploding. NASCAR started chasing the money and building tracks in places that didn't really care about the sport to open up new markets. They forgot their roots in the southeast and left many of the tracks that made the sport what it was. Today the ratings are dow, the drivers are robots, and there are thousands of empty seats at all tracks. They chased the almighty dollar and got away from what made them successful, much like college sports are doing now.

Yeah you might add thousands of TV sets by adding schools in new areas, but I'm sorry Boston, NYC, etc will never be college football hotbeds. Even Pittsburgh is not a huge CFB town. Pitt does not draw at all most of the time, only when they are playing well. The attendance at college football and bball games are ready down. Part of that is due to the economy but also because schools are pricing out fans as well as people tiring of the drama.

 

[TomRicardo]

Could you provide anything other than anecdotal evidence? I'm legitimately curious.

Edit: And the big thing driving the suck that is the ACC is the fact Miami and FSU have been jokes, relatively speaking, for the better part of the last decade. Which makes all the talk about FSU leaving for greener pastures all the more amusing.

FSU's ratings are the highest in the ACC by a huge margin. They get double the football viewers of an average team in the ACC. FSU and Clemson make up over 30% of the ACC football viewership or 25% of the league television value in football alone (they make up close 30% of the value in the ACC contract).

Winning does not equal value. Notre Dame is the second most valuable program and haven't won for years. BC is among the lowest values in the BCS and was ranked number 2 as recently as five years ago.

UConn which you love to bring up had larger total viewership numbers than BC did last year.

 

[kenneycb]

Yes, I am aware that winning doesn't equal value. But considering FSU brings so many viewers to the table, them not winning and being in the marquee matchups (read: ACCCG, Orange Bowl, other BCS bowl) detracts from ACC viewership as a whole, thus devaluing the entire product, albeit somewhat indirectly. I just feel that FSU has an inflated sense of its self-worth considering it has largely prevented the ACC from catapulting to at least be on a similar level as the Big XII due to a decade of mediocrity.

Side note, but when have I brought up UConn recently? You're confusing me with Bernie.

 

[TomRicardo]

Possibly. If so I apologize. But in the end these massive contracts and this entire Game of Conferences is about eyeballs to the tv. Without Clemson and FSU, the ACC is less than 70 percent as valuable. They move and East Coast college football is dead.

The Big 12 is in a position to eat the ACC whole. Without Clemson and FSU, Miami UNC and VTech have to be looking to run as well. Texas is the ACC's last hope

 

[mauf]

Possibly. If so I apologize. But in the end these massive contracts and this entire Game of Conferences is about eyeballs to the tv. Without Clemson and FSU, the ACC is less than 70 percent as valuable. They move and East Coast college football is dead.

The Big 12 is in a position to eat the ACC whole. Without Clemson and FSU, Miami UNC and VTech have to be looking to run as well. Texas is the ACC's last hope

Which is why I continue to believe the SEC -- which can pretty much have its pick of the litter -- is going to surmount any parochial objections from UF and USC and add FSU and Clemson. If one of those falls through, either Va. Tech or (less likely) UNC is Plan B.

As others have noted, the landscape is going to change, with six major conferences consolidating into five. Three conferences are assured of survival -- the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12. So long as Texas and OU stay put, the Big 12 isn't going anywhere either. That leaves the Big East and ACC to fight over the leavings. The ACC has the upper hand right now, but that could change quickly if Miami, FSU, Clemson and Va. Tech all run to the exit -- at that point, the big boys are going to cut their own deals, and anything is possible. The ACC has the stronger brand name, but it's not SEC/Big Ten strong -- that is, it's not enough to keep the powerhouse ACC schools from abandoning the conference if they conclude they can make more money by forming a new conference, or by seizing upon the Big East's expiring TV deal.

UConn and B.C. would do well to bury the hatchet and work with one another. Right now, I could easily see either of them vetoing a move by the other if they had the power to do so -- yet, if they worked together, they could virtually ensure that neither would be left out in the cold.

 

[TomRicardo]

UConn and B.C. would do well to bury the hatchet and work with one another. Right now, I could easily see either of them vetoing a move by the other if they had the power to do so -- yet, if they worked together, they could virtually ensure that neither would be left out in the cold.

UConn is in a better position right. The ACC contract gets blown to shreds if at least two of Miami, VTech, UNC, or Georgia Tech leave with Clemson and FSU out. That leaves ESPN with a programming holes, and Fox and the expanded NBC sports looking for some more cheap college football. The Big Mess showed they have no problem playing Thursday football. Plus the Big East has Navy and Notre Dame behind them which should help a bit with NBC.

My guess is if FSU and Clemson leave, Miami is gone as well. At this point if you are Pittsburgh or Syracuse, you start thinking about going back to the Big East and asking if you can come back without paying your exit fee because you aren't to pay to join a league about to collapse.

Texas does not want to add teams unless Notre Dame comes aboard. It really is the only team that adds value to Big 12 for Texas. However if Texas budges on FSU, Clemson, VTech, and Miami the Big 12 becomes the second biggest conference and pretty much relegates the Big 10 and PAC12 to a second tier. Big 10 would go try to serenade Notre Dame again but would be smart to pick up some of the wreckage of the ACC.

 

[Sea Dog]

Which is why I continue to believe the SEC -- which can pretty much have its pick of the litter -- is going to surmount any parochial objections from UF and USC and add FSU and Clemson. If one of those falls through, either Va. Tech or (less likely) UNC is Plan B.

Thing is, the SEC probably could've reached out to FSU a year ago, when it took Texas A&M and Mizzou. No way do either of those two bring the same football TV numbers as FSU nationwide, but the SEC went with them anyway to expand the geographic footprint of the conference. It would seem odd for the SEC to go that route in expanding to 14, then do a 180 when attempting to expand to 16. I would think VaTech and N.C. State are the top two targets knowing UNC would never leave a still-sustainable ACC, and that the Tar Heels and Duke might be more interested in the Big Ten academics should a doomsday scenario come to fruition.

 

[mauf]

Are the ACC's bylaws publicly available? If three or four big players leave the conference, and the mid-market ACC teams (UNC, NCST, UVA, Va. Tech, Maryland) decide they're better off independent than in a decimated ACC, can they vote to dissolve the conference? The programs headed to the Big 12 would avoid hefty exit fees, and the remainders would have the opportunity to form a smaller, more lucrative conference -- wouldn't a 9-team conference consisting of those five schools plus GT, Syracuse, Rutgers and UConn earn more per school than a 12 or 13-member conference with those schools plus some combination of Duke, Pitt, BC and WF?

 

[mauf]

Thing is, the SEC probably could've reached out to FSU a year ago, when it took Texas A&M and Mizzou. No way do either of those two bring the same football TV numbers as FSU nationwide, but the SEC went with them anyway to expand the geographic footprint of the conference. It would seem odd for the SEC to go that route in expanding to 14, then do a 180 when attempting to expand to 16. I would think VaTech and N.C. State are the top two targets knowing UNC would never leave a still-sustainable ACC, and that the Tar Heels and Duke might be more interested in the Big Ten academics should a doomsday scenario come to fruition.

The SEC's brand is wrapped up in the quality of its football programs. Their ideal "add" is a program that brings in revenue and doesn't water down the on-field product. A&M makes the cut -- it figures to be a middle-of-the-pack football program and gives the conference a foothold in the largest state in the region. Mizzou is iffy on the quality of football, but it's the dominant program in a mid-sized state and makes the SEC the dominant player in two mid-sized media markets (StL, KC) where it previously had no presence.

The only available school that meets those two criteria is FSU, which is why I think they'd be the SEC's #1 target.

The others offer a mixed bag. Clemson has a pedigreed football program that makes a lot of money, but brings nothing to the table strategically. UNC is the most intriguing add from a revenue expansion standpoint -- it's hard to understate how much more popular the Tar Heels are than the Wolfpack -- but they would vie with Vandy for last place in the SEC East for the foreseeable future. Virginia Tech is somewhere in the middle -- they aren't as intriguing as Carolina or as safe as Clemson, but they offer a mix of pedigree and strategic opportunity. I don't see the appeal of NC State at all -- they'd be like Vandy without the academics.

 

[Sea Dog]

The SEC's brand is wrapped up in the quality of its football programs. Their ideal "add" is a program that brings in revenue and doesn't water down the on-field product. A&M makes the cut -- it figures to be a middle-of-the-pack football program and gives the conference a foothold in the largest state in the region. Mizzou is iffy on the quality of football, but it's the dominant program in a mid-sized state and makes the SEC the dominant player in two mid-sized media markets (StL, KC) where it previously had no presence.

The only available school that meets those two criteria is FSU, which is why I think they'd be the SEC's #1 target.

But the Seminoles don't add any new TV sets. Given today's news that they're going to create an SEC Network, I would think adding new markets -- especially Virginia and rapidly growing North Carolina -- would make schools like VaTech and N.C. State the ideal targets. Florida State wouldn't do much to bring more value (i.e. be carried by local cable providers) to the SEC Network.

 

[TomRicardo]

Are the ACC's bylaws publicly available? If three or four big players leave the conference, and the mid-market ACC teams (UNC, NCST, UVA, Va. Tech, Maryland) decide they're better off independent than in a decimated ACC, can they vote to dissolve the conference? The programs headed to the Big 12 would avoid hefty exit fees, and the remainders would have the opportunity to form a smaller, more lucrative conference -- wouldn't a 9-team conference consisting of those five schools plus GT, Syracuse, Rutgers and UConn earn more per school than a 12 or 13-member conference with those schools plus some combination of Duke, Pitt, BC and WF?

No. They wouldn't. And there is zero chance UConn and Rutgers would leave money on the table on the Big East to join that less lucrative league.

Also UNC is the third most valuable team in the ACC. More so than Miami.

SEC or the Big 10 would grab it in a second if the ACC blows up.

 

[mauf]

No. They wouldn't. And there is zero chance UConn and Rutgers would leave money on the table on the Big East to join that less lucrative league.

Also UNC is the third most valuable team in the ACC. More so than Miami.

SEC or the Big 10 would grab it in a second if the ACC blows up.

Are there numbers to back up the UConn/Rutgers point? In my hypo, the three additional schools (i.e., the difference between a 9-team and 12-team conference) would have to increase the size of the pie by 33% to justify a decision to split the pie 12 ways instead of 9. Intuitively, it seems impossible that adding 3 low-revenue schools would ever make sense. The past experience with conferences expanding to capitalize on CCGs isn't instructive, as I don't recall any of them adding multiple revenue laggards to get to 12. So I'd be inclined to think UConn and Rutgers would earn more in the 9-team conference I described than in a 12-team Big East populated with the likes of UCF and Louisville.

You're absolutely right about UNC. If the Big Ten shed its risk-averse ways, they could make a real power play by grabbing ND/UNC/UVA/Duke (substitute Rutgers for Duke if you wish).

 

[TomRicardo]

The league you described wouldn't make more than the Big East especially since it lacks bowl affiliations and a championship game. It would especially bleed money on the basketball side which makes 20 to 35% of the money for a conference (much more in the Big East than an SEC). There isn't a single big time football team.

Also Louisville has a more valuable football program than every program in your nine team conference except possibly UNC.

And if the Big 10 could have Notre Dame, they would have already.

 

[berniecarbo1]

Possibly. If so I apologize. But in the end these massive contracts and this entire Game of Conferences is about eyeballs to the tv. Without Clemson and FSU, the ACC is less than 70 percent as valuable. They move and East Coast college football is dead.

The Big 12 is in a position to eat the ACC whole. Without Clemson and FSU, Miami UNC and VTech have to be looking to run as well. Texas is the ACC's last hope

I am often mistaken as someone else....just the other day someone thought I was Jesse Ventura. I don;t know if that was a compliment or not come to think of it....:/ BTW did I mention UConn lately?? Tom I do have a question, when was Northeast college football ever really relevant? Pre WWII maybe??? If the ACC was trying to get ratings, they never would have grabbed BC. BC caught lightning in a bottle 25 years ago and never cpaitalized on it. Number of reasons why, most notably crappy facilities, no real recruiting base close to home (New England HS football, with the exception of a couple of schools is pretty weak) tough academics and no real tradition (i.e. no "rivalry') plus other things I am sure you can pile on here all led to the decline in the program after Flutie left and only sporadic success since. Yes they had a bowl streak of 12 or 13 years but I will be the first to admit their schedules were never great overall and the biggest bowl they went to in that stretch was the Champs Bowl in Orlando when they beat Michigan State. It is a nice , middle of the road program. It is what it is. Even in the ACC, most BC fans agree that ther is no real "rival" within the league. BC fills out a 12 team league and hence is just a team on the schedule every year. From that perspective not many BC fans are or were happy about the move. IN hindsight, however, from most perspectives, BC has improved in stature, revenue and prominence on the acdemic side since moving, and their major revenue sports teams have remained competitive in the ACC, until the last 2 years or so.

As I said earlier BC fit a need back in 2003 or so. They were the 12th team. BC wanted out, the ACC was looking for an ACCCG and the two were wed, or somethng like that. Look I like BC football but I am not an apologist for it at all. Read my posts on the BC football thread every year and I bash them from pillar to post when it is correct to do so. I also give them props when they deserve it as well. I am no fan of GDF or Spaz. I agree that if the ACC imploded, BC would not be a team many "superconferences" would look to pick up. But I also ask, what teams would a super conference want out of the Northeast? THey all had a shot this year and Syracuse and Pitt jumoped to the ACC and WVU, really not a NOrtheast school went to the Big XII. The rest are still looking.

But I am also a realist about the ACC, IMHO. I do not think the ACC will die even if Clemson and FSU left. I do not think Miami will necesarily follow FSU. They have a lot of problems down there and they are going to get banged real bad in this agent thing with the hookers. They have to deal with that mess and ride through it. You will see TV bans, lost scholarships, etc. Al Golden is a good coach and he will get them through it but they have to right their ship and jumping to conferences for more $$$ isn't the way to do it.Having said that if they called a press conferce tomorrow and announced they were leaving, it wouldn't shock me. Nothing in this money grab shocks me. Assuming everyone is correct that FSU and Clemson are goners, they will be replaced. By whom who knows but as I have said before it would not likely be a Northeast team. As you say Tom, teams in the Northeast do not drive ratings for college football. PLus if you are the ACC, you don't lose 2 southern teams and replace them with 2 northern teams. In its heart the ACC is a southern conference. It will do everything to keep the southern base in tact.

One final note. Some of you guys probably weren't even born in the late 70's but Penn State wanted in on the Big East basketball conference. Joe Pa back then was all for it and actually indicated that he would be willing to entertain a football confernece as well. The BE honchos ( who were driven by the non football schools at the time, i.e. Dave Gavitt at Providence) turned down Penn State's overtures to join the league. Also, Holy Cross was the BE's first choice for a hoops team in Massachusetts/Boston. But Fr. Brooks, the then president of HC said no. Ron Perry, Sr, the AD at HC admitted it was the worst mistake ever made in regards to athletics at the Cross. BC jumped at the chance to get in, on the rebound if you will. I have said all along that had PSU been admitted ot the BE, they never would have gone to the Big 10 and you would have had a very healthy Eastern Football Conference today consisting of PSU, Syracuse, WVU, PItt, BC, Va Tech, Miami, Rutgers and Temple as your core teams. They would have expanded no doubt over time but that group as a core football program and basketball program would have been very competitive with just about any conference in the country. And it's schools would have been in the driver's seat. But alas, the BE said no....and here we are today. Oh, and yes, UConn eventually would have been admitted and BC would not have bolted because the league would have been solid. Did I mention Uconn??

 

[Infield Infidel]

No. They wouldn't. And there is zero chance UConn and Rutgers would leave money on the table on the Big East to join that less lucrative league.

Also UNC is the third most valuable team in the ACC. More so than Miami.

SEC or the Big 10 would grab it in a second if the ACC blows up.

The money on the table for the Big East is less than what would be available if the UConn/Rutgers etc joined a diminished ACC.

http://ucf.rivals.co...70666&PT=4&PR=2
A month ago, Johnson said people in the Big East were "hopeful" of a per-school payout in the "teens" of millions for all-sports members. Now he's shooting for at least $10 million.

"I'm hopeful of double digits to be honest with you," Johnson said. "I think that would be a great way to move on."

http://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/5/31/3055302/big-east-boise-state-byu-television-contract
-Football-only members in the Big East stand to make $7.8 million per year. Basketball-only members would make $3.2 million per year, and full members in all sports would make $11 million. SDSU and Boise plan to join in football only on July 1, 2013.

Option A: $12-14 million, less travel
Option B: $9-11 million, more travel

Even if they lose the big programs the ACC would still be above $10m. They'd be forced to renegotiate, but they'd be in a similar position to the Big East last year when they were offered $14.4m. Heck, they'd even have some of the teams that were in the Big East (UConn, Rutgers, USF perhaps, Syracuse/Pitt if they don't leave)

UNC/Duke/UVa/Maryland/Miami have more sway, and attract more eyeballs, than anyone left in the Big East. And none of those schools would join the Big East because a.) they'd have to travel to the west coast for football, b) travel to Texas and Memphis for basketball. and c) it would be a conference with 24 teams for basketball. Not happening unless they try to ditch some of the schools that the Big East just picked up, which would be a legal and financial nightmare.

 

[TomRicardo]

UNC/Duke/UVa/Maryland/Miami have more sway, and attract more eyeballs, than anyone left in the Big East. And none of those schools would join the Big East because a.) they'd have to travel to the west coast for football, b) travel to Texas and Memphis for basketball. and c) it would be a conference with 24 teams for basketball. Not happening unless they try to ditch some of the schools that the Big East just picked up, which would be a legal and financial nightmare.

This is wrong. UNC beats everyone in the Big East now except Boise St. Miami without sanctions is the same way but will probably nose dive. Duke, UVA, and Maryland would be average teams in the new Big East and would easily lose to Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati, Boise St., Navy, Houston, San Diego St and UCF in football ratings.

Duke is the least valuable BCS football program in the country. Duke's entire value is tied to basketball. Anyolne taking Duke is only doing it to improve their basketball at the cost of throwing millions away on their pitiful football program which probably shouldn't even be FBS.

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

Possibly. If so I apologize. But in the end these massive contracts and this entire Game of Conferences is about eyeballs to the tv. Without Clemson and FSU, the ACC is less than 70 percent as valuable. They move and East Coast college football is dead.

The Big 12 is in a position to eat the ACC whole. Without Clemson and FSU, Miami UNC and VTech have to be looking to run as well. Texas is the ACC's last hope

Tom - are you suggesting that Texas is a possible move to the ACC? Or are you suggesting that Texas and the Big 12 absorb selected ACC schools? The former will never, ever, ever, ever in a million years happen. With the LHN and its status as the 800-pound gorilla of the Big 12, there is no way that William Powers and DeLoss Dodds are going to risk a move to a distant, football-weak conference. If you are suggesting the latter, I think you are correct. There is a lot of smoke on the Texas boards these days about such a move from the ACC to the Big 12.

 

[ethangl]

He's suggesting that Texas' resistance to expanding the Big 12 is the ACC's last hope.

 

[TomRicardo]

He's suggesting that Texas' resistance to expanding the Big 12 is the ACC's last hope.

Yes. I think Texas doesn't want to add anyone without Notre Dame and Notre Dame has no absolutely no interest in the Big 12.

I think Texas is actually screwing themselves a little. I think they could definitely gain from adding a FSU and Clemson as well as Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

Texas really thinks that it can drag Notre Dame into its conference and then tell them what to do. It will never work that way, and Texas refuses to acknowledge that. They have been very stubborn with the LHN which really is what started this whole dance.

The Big 12 should move to improve itself despite of Texas which in the end will help Texas.

 

[ethangl]

I think Texas is actually screwing themselves a little. I think they could definitely gain from adding a FSU and Clemson as well as Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

Short term, maybe, but destroying the ACC would be like making the first strike in the Cold War. Nobody wants to start armageddon. Regardless of what business you are in, if you are #1, your interests lie in maintaining the status quo, not blowing the whole thing up.

Texas really thinks that it can drag Notre Dame into its conference and then tell them what to do. It will never work that way, and Texas refuses to acknowledge that. They have been very stubborn with the LHN which really is what started this whole dance.

Texas and ND are as friendly as two programs can get.

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

Who knows. My own view is that Texas will selectively look at programs as potential invitees with a view to perhaps growing the conference, but only if the program really is additive to the Big 12's attractiveness and TV audience. ND is clearly at the top of that list and it is known that Texas and ND have an excellent relationship. At the same time, I think Dodds will be part of the push for a playoff system, which is I believe more important than conference numbers to ADs of big programs like Texas. To the extent that conference realignment influences the likelihood of a playoff, schools like Texas will get behind it.

And yes, Texas has made a number of mistakes with the LHN, but I think it's wrong to place blame on Texas for starting all of this. Conference realignment has been happening for a long time now, and Texas is trying to drive the bus rather than hitching a ride. What I wish they would do is win a few more MNCs rather than fart around with the LHN and realignment. The rapid decline of Texas sports is really starting to bother me. I think they have been so consumed with crap like the LHN and building the brand that they have lost their sense of urgency about winning.

 

[TomRicardo]

I meant scaring Texas A&M away. Not that A&M is not at fault there either but A&M leaving really left the gate open for FSU and Clemson to leave the ACC.

 

[TomRicardo]

Texas and ND are as friendly as two programs can get.

Sure, but there is no chance in hell Notre Dame is going to leave its current deal with NBC for a chance to give game away every 1 year to LHN which ESPN is having a hard time selling locally let alone nationally

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

I meant scaring Texas A&M away. Not that A&M is not at fault there either but A&M leaving really left the gate open for FSU and Clemson to leave the ACC.

True enough. Aggy's (and Mizzou's) departure was a tipping point of sorts - it demonstrated that pretty much everything is on the table when it comes to conferences now. Nothing that happens would surprise me at this point. Not even ND aligning with Texas (but I doubt that scenario).

 

[TomRicardo]

I mean Oklahoma has to be able to convince Texas that adding two diehard Southern Universities would be good for the Conference right?

 

[ethangl]

Sure, but there is no chance in hell Notre Dame is going to leave its current deal with NBC for a chance to give game away every 1 year to LHN which ESPN is having a hard time selling locally let alone nationally

Show me something that says that any conference is doing anything other than waiting for the NBC deal to expire. Come on.

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

I mean Oklahoma has to be able to convince Texas that adding two diehard Southern Universities would be good for the Conference right?

Yuk yuk. I think you're overanalyzing it. Everything is on the table now, and it is being driven by the big schools' desire for a predictable championship structure that will make the most money. Whereas six months ago I would have said no way will Texas and OU go their separate ways in any realignment scenario, I am no longer so sure. I could see Texas doing any number of things if they thought it would mean more TV dollars and a yearly playoff. Look at the ersatz championship game they just set up with the SEC. ND is going to be looking at it the same way. There's a reason that TV contracts expire, and the powers that be in major college football recognize that they need to cash in on the next wave via realignment.

 

[JMDurron]

This seems to be Kremlin's most active thread lately, so...

Kremlin - Go to Support -> Invoices and pay that invoice. It should process almost immediately and restore your posting capability.

Cancel your other subscription and dispute that other payment, it is useless and will accomplish nothing.

It was either this or start a "TEXAS TO RECEIVE DEATH PENALTY" thread to get his attention, since he can't post in backwash, receive PMs, and has no contact info in his profile.

 

[Kremlin Watcher]

Because I can't seem to post anywhere else.

JMD - thanks. But I have decided to go the safe route and let SoSH solve it for me. I figured out how to contact SoSH Tech Support and they acknowledge the payment has been made, but for some reason the system won't process it. So I am re-subscribed as far as Tech is concerned, but they just have to puzzle out how to reactivate my full membership in the server. Don't want to risk going to Support and screw up what Tech is doing to fix it.

Oh, and despite the fact that we seem to suck at everything these days, Hook 'em!

 

[Sea Dog]

Whereas six months ago I would have said no way will Texas and OU go their separate ways in any realignment scenario, I am no longer so sure. I could see Texas doing any number of things if they thought it would mean more TV dollars and a yearly playoff.

Texas and Oklahoma are already locked into a six-year grant of rights the Big 12 agreed to last year and signed this spring -- TCU and WVU were the last two to sign, obviously, but all 10 current members have done so. The new TV contract will push that grant of rights to 13 years once the ink is dry. Simply put, Texas and Oklahoma will not be going their separate ways anytime soon.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Interesting tidbit from Ivan Maisel

2. Let’s all forget my recent prediction that Florida State and Clemson would leave the ACC for the Big 12. Not just because the Big 12 has said it wants to stay at 10 members. From what I’m hearing, recruits in SEC and ACC country have made it clear that they aren’t interested in playing in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. Did you notice the news release last week about Tigers coach Dabo Swinney's new contract? Both he and the chair of the Board of Trustees mention succeeding in the ACC for years to come.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

lol...we as 19-year olds are not interested in playing in Texas and Oklahoma in front of 80k people but want to play in College Park, Syracuse and Boston in front of 25,000? LOLOLOLOL

yeah, right. If that is the reason why FSU and Clemson do not go to the Big12 then the people down there are less intelligent than I imagined (and I imagine they are not the brightest)

 

[Infield Infidel]

Personally, I'd much rather go to DC, Syracuse or Boston than Manhattan or Lawrence KS, Stillwater, Lubbuck, Waco, or Ames.

 

[RingoOSU]

You really think they have much time or permission to do much besides go to bed, prep for the game, eat, play, then leave? Or did you just want to take any opportunity you can to shit on middle America?

 

[Infield Infidel]

Look, places in NC, SC, Georgia, FL are all within driving distance, and Atl, DC and Boston are direct flights from most places in the southeast. If you are a player and you want your family to see you play, those are things you would consider. It would certainly be tougher flying from Tallahassee-Atlanta-Dallas-Ames than just driving to the Triangle or flying to Boston.

But yes, I'm shitting on middle america because people from far away would have a hard time getting there. If a player is from middle america (whatever the fuck that means), I wouldn't begrudge them or their family not wanting to go far from home either.

 

[mauf]

Look, places in NC, SC, Georgia, FL are all within driving distance, and Atl, DC and Boston are direct flights from most places in the southeast. If you are a player and you want your family to see you play, those are things you would consider. It would certainly be tougher flying from Tallahassee-Atlanta-Dallas-Ames than just driving to the Triangle or flying to Boston.

But yes, I'm shitting on middle america because people from far away would have a hard time getting there. If a player is from middle america (whatever the fuck that means), I wouldn't begrudge them or their family not wanting to go far from home either.

Something like 70% of D-I players went to high school in the same state they went to college. I suspect that percentage is much lower among SoSH members.

I'm skeptical that the location of road games would be a major factor for many recruits, but I suppose it's possible -- we're talking about a population that values being relatively close to home.

 

[cannonball 1729]

Downballot news:

It doesn't look like Davidson is going anywhere. The SoCon directors met and decided to lower the number of in-conference basketball games from 18 to 16, which gives a school like Davidson or College of Charleston or Wofford a chance to schedule a couple more out-of-conference games and make a little more money. Two games doesn't sound like a lot, but it pretty much eliminates the need to play any SoCon games in December, so schools will have more scheduling flexibility during their month without classes. The SoCon's ultimate goal is probably to make themselves into a 2-bid basketball conference, so the extra two games for each team should help with RPI's and ranking calculations.

Separately, App State and Georgia Southern are angling to be in the FBS by 2014 or so, which led to a rather amusing public comment by SoCon president John Iamarino:

We understand that App State and Georgia Southern have been fairly public about aspirations to move to the Bowl Subdivision, but as their coaches and administrators said, you need an invitation and their phone isn’t ringing. They’re happy to be in the SoCon and we’re happy to have them.​

​

​

Ouch.

App State has agreed to host the women's soccer tournament in Boone in spring of 2014, so it looks like they're not planning to leave the SoCon until at least the 2014-15 season.

 

[mabrowndog]

I still think a number of FCS teams could ultimately band together and form their own conference, moving to FBS as a group. No invitation needed.


Villanova
Delaware
James Madison
Liberty
Appalachian St
GA Southern

That would meet the 6-team minimum for FBS status, and you'd have three pairs of geographic rivals that also have solid head-to-head histories. Adding UMass & Army would get them into the NYC/Tri-State and Boston/Hartford markets. After a few years, a group like this might prove appealing to other programs that could be FBS candidates (Chattanooga, Furman, Elon, Wofford, NC-Greensboro, NC-Wilmington, Albany) as well as schools that already jumped to crappy or ill-fitting FBS conferences, such as GA St & Fla Atlantic (Sun Belt) and Buffalo (MAC).