"Confidence"￾: Thursday Night Gambling Preview

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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Dallas
http://central.sonsofsamhorn.net/nfl/confidence-thursday-night-gambling-preview/
 
I have no “Confidence” in this game for three reasons: 1) There is too much uncertainty surrounding how Tampa Bay’s offense will perform against Atlanta’s defense; 2) Tampa Bay has an extensive star-studded injury list with too many game-time decisions; and 3) The advanced statistics have the line much closer than the books. All the uncertainty revolves around Tampa Bay, which might normally make the Falcons the call, but I would not advise wagering on this game.
 
 
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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My first bet of the season is on Atlanta tonight. Their two lines have looked horrible in both previous games. That's the only thing I know about football, bet against a team that cannot protect OR pressure.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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Had I known McCoy and Martin were both out I'd have been much more confident in the Falcons (I have to write my prediction the day before). Roddy White isn't as important to Atlanta as McCoy is to TB. And although White is a good receiver he isn't nearly the talent McCoy is. TB is injury riddled on defense and their offense is a mess. Even if Pittsburgh gets dismantled by the Panthers that line is going to be heavy. How many points would you need to take Tampa Bay next week? Assume that 1) you have to take them, and 2) I am not asking to predict the line - just the number of points +1 you think Tampa Bay is going to lose by next week. Maybe one of you brave souls think the Buccaneers will win next week. Let's hear it.
 

Stitch01

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Jul 15, 2005
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Boston
Probably a decent chance I bet them next week, line is going to be inflated after a drubbing on national TV. Inpredictable had them as 6-7 point dogs before last nights game, if it opens something crazy like Pitt -10 I'll have a play on TB
 

SMU_Sox

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Stitch01 said:
Probably a decent chance I bet them next week, line is going to be inflated after a drubbing on national TV. Inpredictable had them as 6-7 point dogs before last nights game, if it opens something crazy like Pitt -10 I'll have a play on TB
I want to see who plays. They are down so many guys, Stich.
 

Stitch01

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Boston
McCoy is probably the only one that would possibly alter what I thought of betting.  I still don't think this team is Jacksonville/Raiders level bad, that absolute embarrassment nonwithstanding.  If the line moves 3-4 points off of that performance, which is what a move to 10 would represent, Im taking the value.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
33,299
I disagree a bit.  While McCoy is great, I don't think he's the biggest loss on defense for TB.  Mason Foster is, IMO, the unquestioned leader of the defense and he was out last week.  Guy has been starting since his rookie year at ML, and actually has more tackles than any other player in the NFL that started in 2011, which may not mean much, but it kind of a cool little statistic.  Adrian Claiborne and Mike Jenkins got hurt in the opener and have since gone on IR, and I'm pretty sure Michael Johnson didn't play and Gholston saw limited action last night.  If all of those guys are out next week, I'd be pegging that line at around 11.5 in Pittsburgh's favor, and Pitt hasn't really been playing well.  Anything less than 10, and I'm probably jumping all over Pittsburgh next week, especially if there are still question marks surrounding Glennon/McCown and who is starting.  I don't think Rainey is that much of a downgrade from Martin, except for the fumbles, to make much difference in the end result, and I say that as a huge Martin fan.  They just aren't good enough up front to have a running back not named AP or McCoy affect the end result all that much. If they don't get healthy, particularly on defense, I really think they could easily finish with less wins than Oakland or Jacksonville. 
 

Super Nomario

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Deathofthebambino said:
I disagree a bit.  While McCoy is great, I don't think he's the biggest loss on defense for TB.  Mason Foster is, IMO, the unquestioned leader of the defense and he was out last week.  Guy has been starting since his rookie year at ML, and actually has more tackles than any other player in the NFL that started in 2011, which may not mean much, but it kind of a cool little statistic.  Adrian Claiborne and Mike Jenkins got hurt in the opener and have since gone on IR, and I'm pretty sure Michael Johnson didn't play and Gholston saw limited action last night.  If all of those guys are out next week, I'd be pegging that line at around 11.5 in Pittsburgh's favor, and Pitt hasn't really been playing well.  Anything less than 10, and I'm probably jumping all over Pittsburgh next week, especially if there are still question marks surrounding Glennon/McCown and who is starting.  I don't think Rainey is that much of a downgrade from Martin, except for the fumbles, to make much difference in the end result, and I say that as a huge Martin fan.  They just aren't good enough up front to have a running back not named AP or McCoy affect the end result all that much. If they don't get healthy, particularly on defense, I really think they could easily finish with less wins than Oakland or Jacksonville. 
Lavonte David has more tackles than any other player in the NFL that started in 2012, was first-team All-Pro last year, and he was named a team captain and Foster wasn't. I have a hard time calling Foster the "unquestioned leader of the defense."
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
33,299
You know what, you're right.  For some reason, I always confuse the two, but David is by far the better player and given he's the captain, and Foster isn't, I'll agree with you that he's the real leader of the defense.  I don't think it changes the equation much though.  Foster is a huge loss to the middle of that defense.
 

Super Nomario

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Deathofthebambino said:
You know what, you're right.  For some reason, I always confuse the two, but David is by far the better player and given he's the captain, and Foster isn't, I'll agree with you that he's the real leader of the defense.  I don't think it changes the equation much though.  Foster is a huge loss to the middle of that defense.
And for what it's worth, I agree that the injuries hurt. However, the secondary was fairly healthy, with safeties Barron and Goldson and corners Verner, Banks, and Johnson playing (just Jenkins hurt), and they looked as awful as any of the rest of the team. It might be scheme-related, or it might be that some of these big names just aren't very good. Either way, it was a shameful effort no matter who was lining up - and the offense was reasonably healthy and looked perhaps even worse considering Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the league.
 

soxfan121

JAG
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Goldson looks like a guy happy to be cashing big paychecks. Credit due to Baalke/SF, they didn't try real hard to retain him and it looks like a great decision to let someone else pay him for average or worse performance.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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Dallas
Confidence is on vacation this weekend.

I have 3 plays:

New Orleans -4 and Denver +12
Risking .5 units to win .455.

Philadelphia PK and Baltimore +4.5
Risked .5 units to win .455.

Chicago +9 and Philadelphia PK.
Risked .5 units to win .455.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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So far I'm 4/4. One play hit. If either the Bears or the Broncos hit I'll be up for the week. I'm hoping for. Bears win (because as a fan I can't stand the Jets) and a Seahawks win by a TD or so (again want the Broncos to lose as a matter of fandom).
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
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Jul 20, 2009
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Ok. Well all that is left is a good bears game for 6-0 this week. Last week was rough. Glad this week turned out better.