Cora, Cora, Cora!

[Rovin Romine]

Your argument seems to actually boil down not to "A manger's job is to maximize his team's chances of winning games" but instead to "A manager's job is to maximize his team's chances of winning *this particular* game." Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think it's clear that in Cora's mind, his bullpen usage last night was with an eye toward maximizing his team's chances of winning games. It may or may not have maximized the team's chances of winning that particular game.

I may as well copy the tracking post in the 2023 Starter thread here. This is what's actually happened in the post-Houck injury era:

The white text is the original proposed schedule for how the team might fare in the 3 starter/injury era. Its interesting in that instead of using the starters on a 5 day rotation and absorbing bullpen games on the off days, the Sox have chosen to commit to the maximum number of bullpen games (bulk Pivetta and Murphy, mostly).​

​

Greens are wins, Reds are losses, indents are notes and roster moves.​

Innings are 1(ish) with significant long/short appearances noted.​

Bold is most contributive pitcher, good in a win or bad in a loss (my subjective reading.)​

​

July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).​

July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).​

Scott DFA'd (OAK), Jake Faria up from AAA, stretched out as a starter, last pitched 7/5.​

July 16 @ Cubs Crawford - Crawford (6), Jacques, Faria (2 - 65 pitches).​

Faria DFA'd (Worcester), Bleier off the IL.​

July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (2), Pivetta (6), Martin.​

July 18 @ A’s Bullpen - Jacques, Murphy (4.2), Rodriguez, Bleier.​

July 19 @ A’s Bello - Bello (4), Rodriguez, Winckowski (2), Jansen.​

July 20 off​

July 21 vs NYM Paxton - Crawford (4) Suspended Game due to Rain. (score 4-3 Mets)​

Bello on Paternity List, Garza up from AAA.​

Story and Kluber begin rehab assignments.​

July 22 vs NYM (cont.) Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier (2), Martin.​

July 22 vs NYM Crawford - Paxton (6), Winckowski, Pivetta, Garza, Jansen (.1).​

July 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (1.2), Murphy (3.2), Winckowski, Rodriguez, Jacques, Martin, Walter. ​

July 24 off​

Garza and Walter to AAA. (note: very light use of Walter recently.)​

Schreiber off the IL. Bello off the Paternity List​

July 25 vs ATL Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (5), Bleier, Martin, Rodriguez (2).​

Kluber begins rehab assignment.​

Story begins rehab assignment.​

July 26 vs ATL Paxton - Bello (6), Jacques, Schreiber, Bernardino (.1), Jansen.​

July 27 off​

July 28 @ SF Crawford - Crawford (5.2), Bernardino (.1), Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.​

Jacques to AAA.​

Llovera (acquired from SFG) called up.​

July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Bleier, Llovera, Jansen.​

July 30 @ SF Bello - Bernardino, Schreiber (2), Murphy (3.1), Winckowski (1.2), Bleier, Martin, Llovera.​

Jacques called up.​

Rodriguez to 15 day IL (hip), retroactive to the 29th.)​

July 31 @ SEA Paxton - Pivetta (7.1), Jacques.​

Aug 1 @ SEA Bullpen - Bello (6), Martin, Winckowski, Jansen.​

Sale begins rehab assignment at AAA.​

(Note: Trade Deadline)​

Aug 2 @ SEA Crawford - Crawford (5), Schreiber, Bleier, Llovera.​

Aug 3 off​

Aug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Llovera, Jacques, Bleier.​

Houck begins rehab assignment at AAA.​

Aug 5 vs TOR Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (4), Bernardino, Winckowski (1.2), Martin, Jacques.​

Jacques to AAA.​

Nick Robertson called up. (Acquired in E.Hernandez trade.)​

Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton - Bernardino, Murphy (2.1), Llovera, Bleier (2.1), Robertson, Reyes. ​

Bleier DFA'd​

Lamet called up.​

Aug 7 vs KC Crawford - Bello (6.2) Winckowski (.1), Martin, Jansen.​

Story Returns from IL (goes 0-4 batting 3rd on 8/8)​

Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen - Crawford (3.1), Bernardino, Lamet (2), Robertson (3). ​

Lamet DFA'd​

Robertson to AAA.​

Walter called up.​

Barraclough called up.​

Whitlock begins rehab assignment (expected to be short.)​

Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta​

Aug 10 vs KC Bello​

Aug 11 vs DET Paxton​

Aug 12 vs DET Crawford​

Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta​

Aug 14 off​

(Note from the beginning of the thread: Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return? Story actually back on 8/8)​

Aug 15 @ WSN​

Aug 16 @ WSN​

Aug 17 @ WSN​

(Note: the Gauntlet starts)​

Aug 18 @ NYY​

Aug 19 @ NYY​

Aug 20 @ NYY​

Aug 21 @ HOU​

Aug 22 @ HOU​

Aug 23 @ HOU​

Aug 24 @ HOU​

Aug 25 vs LAD​

Aug 26 vs LAD​

Aug 27 vs LAD​

Aug 28 vs HOU​

Aug 29 vs HOU​

Aug 30 vs HOU​

 

[Humphrey]

He was DFA’d just now.

I would think they believe no one will claim him and they can "fix" him in Worcester. Otherwise, what was the point of acquiring him? One game, he sucks (which he did before), goodbye????

 

[LogansDad]

The team has looked completely dead since Cora left Schrieber in for a second inning after his atrocious first inning of work, and he ended up blowing the game against Seattle.

If they hold on to win that game, the entire last week might not have gone differently, but I have a feeling some of it would have.

 

[BringBackMo]

The team has looked completely dead since Cora left Schrieber in for a second inning after his atrocious first inning of work, and he ended up blowing the game against Seattle.

If they hold on to win that game, the entire last week might not have gone differently, but I have a feeling some of it would have.

I don't know. The Sox have had streaky periods of suck and of success all season long. Young teams often do. That plus the piled-up injuries to the pitching staff finally catching up with the team seem to me to have had a lot more to do with the past week of suck than bringing Schrieber out for another inning did. (And the inability to score runs, come to think of it.)

 

[Rovin Romine]

The team has looked completely dead since Cora left Schrieber in for a second inning after his atrocious first inning of work, and he ended up blowing the game against Seattle.

If they hold on to win that game, the entire last week might not have gone differently, but I have a feeling some of it would have.

I think the story of the red block is mostly on the hitting coaches and offense.

I think the overall scheduling is a bit weird. They ended up with 2 bullpen games against Toronto - compare that to the original white schedule. Ultimately, it's not like the extra rest helped.

Also you can see the A and B squad pretty clearly - just compare the red and the green and you'll see the same clustering of names.

 

[BringBackMo]

The only real reservation I have about Cora is that it's not clear to me that Bloom truly wants him as his manager. Bloom obviously didn't hire him in the first place, and he seemed pretty noncommittal when Cora was brought back. Am I wrong about that? I could be, as I'm going from memory here, but that is my recollection. To my memory, all indications were that ownership and holdover members of the front office from the Dombrowski era loved Cora, but you do wonder whether Bloom would have preferred to have his own hand-picked person in that spot.

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

I don't know. The Sox have had streaky periods of suck and of success all season long. Young teams often do. That plus the piled-up injuries to the pitching staff finally catching up with the team seem to me to have had a lot more to do with the past week of suck than bringing Schrieber out for another inning did. (And the inability to score runs, come to think of it.)

The Red Sox are the third-oldest team in all of baseball. THIRD! No idea why "young team" keeps getting trotted out around here.

 

[BringBackMo]

The Red Sox are the third-oldest team in all of baseball. THIRD! No idea why "young team" keeps getting trotted out around here.

There are many ways to consider an issue such as this. MANY! You could, say, go with the average age of the roster, which might tell us a lot about what happens when you add up the ages of all the players on the roster and then divide by the number of the players on the roster. Or, you could look at the ages and service time of the key contributors, the players upon whom your success hinges. But fine, I retract the comment. I will now restate:

I don't know. The Sox have had streaky periods of suck and of success all season long. Young teams Third--THIRD!--oldest teams often do. That plus the piled-up injuries to the pitching staff finally catching up with the team seem to me to have had a lot more to do with the past week of suck than bringing Schrieber out for another inning did. (And the inability to score runs, come to think of it.)

 

[chawson]

The Red Sox are the third-oldest team in all of baseball. THIRD! No idea why "young team" keeps getting trotted out around here.

By what, median age? Sure. By another measure, the Red Sox have 13 players 30+ on the 40-man (if you count Barraclough). The Mets have 20 players aged 30 and up on their 40-man, the Dodgers and Phillies have 16, the Jays and Rangers 15, Yankees 13, etc.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There are many ways to consider an issue such as this. MANY! You could, say, go with the average age of the roster, which might tell us a lot about what happens when you add up the ages of all the players on the roster and then divide by the number of the players on the roster. Or, you could look at the ages and service time of the key contributors, the players upon whom your success hinges. But fine, I retract the comment. I will now restate:

The age of a team is determined by weighting playing time (plate appearances, innings) by the age of a player. It’s not like they just add up all the ages of the players and divide by the number of players .

The Red Sox are not a young team, by any metric.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The Red Sox are playing or counting on a lot of inexperienced players:
Bello, Crawford, Murphy, Walter, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Casas, Duran.
(Devers is younger than some of those guys but has way more experience.)
But Turner and Kenley and Martin and Kluber are old as hell so the inexperience of the others doesn't matter, apparently.

 

[BringBackMo]

The age of a team is determined by weighting playing time (plate appearances, innings) by the age of a player. It’s not like they just add up all the ages of the players and divide by the number of players .

The Red Sox are not a young team, by any metric.

This is absurd. Fine. The Boston Red Sox are not a young team. By any metric. I retract the observation. The Boston Red Sox do, though, have a number of key contributors who are young, both by chronological age and by years of service time. Many of these key contributors have been in the major leagues for three years or fewer.
EDIT: Said better by Chawson and Gray Eagle

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

The Red Sox are playing or counting on a lot of inexperienced players:
Bello, Crawford, Murphy, Walter, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Casas, Duran.
(Devers is younger than some of those guys but has way more experience.)
But Turner and Kenley and Martin and Kluber are old as hell so the inexperience of the others doesn't matter, apparently.

This is absurd. Fine. The Boston Red Sox are not a young team. By any metric. I retract the observation. The Boston Red Sox do, though, have a number of key contributors who are young, both by chronological age and by years of service time. Many of these key contributors have been in the major leagues for three years or fewer.
EDIT: Said better by Chawson and Gray Eagle

Every team counts on inexperienced players, and the age calculations are weighted for playing time. You're literally arguing against math to fit a narrative.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Houck, Whitlock, Walter, Wong, Duran are all 26-27 years old though. They don’t have a ton of service time but as far as Major League Baseball players go, they aren’t really young. Casas and Bello, though, sure.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

This is absurd. Fine. The Boston Red Sox are not a young team. By any metric. I retract the observation. The Boston Red Sox do, though, have a number of key contributors who are young, both by chronological age and by years of service time. Many of these key contributors have been in the major leagues for three years or fewer.
EDIT: Said better by Chawson and Gray Eagle

Calculating a median age by weighting playing time and comparing it to other teams is “absurd”? Take your complaints to baseball reference, I guess

The Red Sox have a number of significant contributors who have been in the league for three years or fewer. Ok. Sure. Now how does that compare to other teams?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Houck, Whitlock, Walter, Wong, Duran are all 26-27 years old though. They don’t have a ton of service time but as far as Major League Baseball players go, they aren’t really young. Casas and Bello, though, sure.

I said they were inexperienced. Specifically did not call them young. Pointed out that Devers was older than most. So what are you arguing? You just thought that when I specifically didn't call them young and was only talking about experience, you should remind me that they aren't young? Thanks!

Calculating a median age by weighting playing time and comparing it to other teams is “absurd”? Take your complaints to baseball reference, I guess
The Red Sox have a number of net contributors who have been in the league for three years or fewer. Ok. Sure. Now how does that compare to other teams?

Who knows? You could look it up! Or do you think you'll just keep asking rhetorical questions all the time?
I specifically didn't make any comparisons to any other teams, because whether 20 other teams or 5 other teams have less experience, that doesn't change the fact that the Red Sox are playing some inexperienced players. Our guys don't get more experienced if the Pirates have 17 inexperienced players.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Since Cora did not waste his good relievers last night, they were able to be used tonight. With only 3 or 4 trusted relievers, Cora is in a Catch 22. They can't pitch every night and with the offense' s lack of scoring, the Sox have been playing alot of close games. Cora has to chose his battles of when to use his A squad of relievers. As previously mentioned, Lamet had gotten through the previous inning on 15 pitches. He tried to squeeze another inning out of Lamet. Alot of the criticism of Cora's thinking last night was 20/20 hindsight. Unlike what SJH said Lamet did not get blasted. He ended up going 2 innings giving up 3 runs on 2 hits and a walk. Not really Faria like.

 

[beautokyo]

This is a great popcorn thread....

 

[scottyno]

It's hilarious: Braiser's ERA is SIX RUNS LOWER in LA than it was in Boston. Really. Over the same number of games too.

Speaks poorly of Bush's coaching.

If this speaks poorly of Bush's coaching then what does turning Bernardino and Schreiber into very good relievers speak of? Not to mention guys like Crawford and Murphy? Or does coaching only make guys worse and not better?

 

[E5 Yaz]

This is a great popcorn thread....

...for sadomasochists

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If this speaks poorly of Bush's coaching then what does turning Bernardino and Schreiber into very good relievers speak of? Not to mention guys like Crawford and Murphy? Or does coaching only make guys worse and not better?

I mean, when a guy struggles for 2 years here without Bush being able to get him untracked and he goes to a new team and they change his pitch selection and he turns into Mariano Rivera, it's probably fair to question the coaching.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I mean, when a guy struggles for 2 years here without Bush being able to get him untracked and he goes to a new team and they change his pitch selection and he turns into Mariano Rivera, it's probably fair to question the coaching.

I think we have young coaches.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Since Cora did not waste his good relievers last night, they were able to be used tonight. With only 3 or 4 trusted relievers, Cora is in a Catch 22. They can't pitch every night and with the offense' s lack of scoring, the Sox have been playing alot of close games. Cora has to chose his battles of when to use his A squad of relievers. As previously mentioned, Lamet had gotten through the previous inning on 15 pitches. He tried to squeeze another inning out of Lamet. Alot of the criticism of Cora's thinking last night was 20/20 hindsight. Unlike what SJH said Lamet did not get blasted. He ended up going 2 innings giving up 3 runs on 2 hits and a walk. Not really Faria like.

Actual 20/20 hindsight is looking at last night and claiming the night before was well-managed simply because they won last night.

Lamet got blasted enough to get DFA'd.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Eh. Brasier’s FIP
2022: 3.61
2023 BOS: 4.36
2023 LA: 3.27

With relievers, it’s always a pretty small sample. Brasier’s hard hit and EV #s are much better with LA, though. Looks like he’s throwing a cutter with LA, and his barrels are way down.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I think we have young coaches.

This is a good point. Bush is only 43. He doesn't have as much experience as a lot of other pitching coaches in the league, although Kyle Snyder is only 45.

But the point remains. Perhaps he is learning on the job.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Actual 20/20 hindsight is looking at last night and claiming the night before was well-managed simply because they won last night.

Lamet got blasted enough to get DFA'd.

Nah, he was a warm body when they needed one, did what they needed him to do and was then replaced by another warm body, which was needed. He was always destined to be DFA’d (either for Sale, or another body).

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Eh. Brasier’s FIP
2022: 3.61
2023 BOS: 4.36
2023 LA: 3.27

With relievers, it’s always a pretty small sample. Brasier’s hard hit and EV #s are much better with LA, though. Looks like he’s throwing a cutter with LA, and his barrels are way down.

Yeah this is the key. He's made a qualitative improvement in his pitching and did so the moment he got to LA.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

This is a good point. Bush is only 43. He doesn't have as much experience as a lot of other pitching coaches in the league, although Kyle Snyder is only 45.

But the point remains. Perhaps he is learning on the job.

Doesn't some of this also fall on Tek? I do know they have talked on broadcasts about how much he's involved in scouting hitters and talking to the catchers and pitchers on pitch selection and sequencing.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Agree.
Bloom waffles.
Don't want to hear him try to sell that nonsense that Sale and Story returning are all the moves they needed to make.

I think Bloom's problem is an unwillingness to be aggressive. He'll make individual moves that make sense, but not necessarily address all of the problems or the big picture of what they're trying to accomplish. I keep calling back to the 2022 trade deadline when selling to get under the cap made more sense. As for this offseason, the only explanation that makes sense for me is that his mandate was to stay under the luxury tax threshold and acquire pieces that could field a moderately successful team until the kids are ready next year. If there isn't a true push for a complete roster next year than we absolutely have to consider that Chaim isn't a good executive. I'm sure there are many on here that are already at that point.

 

[simplicio]

Doesn't some of this also fall on Tek? I do know they have talked on broadcasts about how much he's involved in scouting hitters and talking to the catchers and pitchers on pitch selection and sequencing.

I'm not sure it does. Brasier's case is kind of fascinating to view through the data, in part because we have a clear delineation by month (Apr-May BOS, Jun-Aug LAD). He went to LA and they started him on a cutter he'd never thrown in his career while drastically reducing his 4-seam usage. Then the massive cutter spike in July (June sample was only 4 games fwiw) coinciding with elite reliever results. But in August (only 4 games again) he's stopped throwing the cutter nearly as much. Coincidentally (?) he's also had his first bad performance in a month with that profile.

A narrative you might craft around this data is that he became such a different pitcher in July that it took time for his book to be rewritten, and perhaps the reversion is trying to stay a page ahead?

Whatever the story is, all credit to LA for seeing potential that our guys clearly missed and implementing it effectively. I'm just hoping Bush and co. are taking notes.

 

[joe dokes]

I'm not sure it does. Brasier's case is kind of fascinating to view through the data, in part because we have a clear delineation by month (Apr-May BOS, Jun-Aug LAD). He went to LA and they started him on a cutter he'd never thrown in his career while drastically reducing his 4-seam usage. Then the massive cutter spike in July (June sample was only 4 games fwiw) coinciding with elite reliever results. But in August (only 4 games again) he's stopped throwing the cutter nearly as much. Coincidentally (?) he's also had his first bad performance in a month with that profile.
A narrative you might craft around this data is that he became such a different pitcher in July that it took time for his book to be rewritten, and perhaps the reversion is trying to stay a page ahead?

Whatever the story is, all credit to LA for seeing potential that our guys clearly missed and implementing it effectively. I'm just hoping Bush and co. are taking notes.

Or he's stubborn; or the cutter made his arm hurt? Or the LA defense turned similar peripherals into better outcomes more often?
Regardless, I agree that's its interesting and will continue to be so.

 

[moondog80]

Sometimes shit just happens and it's not a failure on anyone's part. Cody Bellinger was non-tendered after two horrible years in LA and now he's a fringe MVP candidate with the Cubs. And in the AL, Corey Seager in the MVP leader in the non-Ohtani division. Did the Dodgers forget to be smart those times?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Bellinger had severe shoulder injuries for two years and had surgery, he's now back to his pre-injury form and even so this year is a lesser OPS+ than his age 23 year. Seager had UCL surgery and broke his hand on a NBP in his last year in LA. He's now healthy again.

I think that's a far simpler explanation than "shit happens." There was no failure there as they were due to injuries. But when a pitcher changes teams and the new team immediately adjusts him to become dominant, yeah it's fair to question why the Sox couldn't do the same.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Or he's stubborn; or the cutter made his arm hurt? Or the LA defense turned similar peripherals into better outcomes more often?
Regardless, I agree that's its interesting and will continue to be so.

I'm intrigued by the cutter idea, that it could be effective but also harder on his arm. LA has an opportunity to use him as a dominant reliever with careful work.

 

[bosox188]

Bellinger had severe shoulder injuries for two years and had surgery, he's now back to his pre-injury form and even so this year is a lesser OPS+ than his age 23 year. Seager had UCL surgery and broke his hand on a NBP in his last year in LA. He's now healthy again.

I think that's a far simpler explanation than "shit happens." There was no failure there as they were due to injuries. But when a pitcher changes teams and the new team immediately adjusts him to become dominant, yeah it's fair to question why the Sox couldn't do the same.

The wild thing with Bellinger this season is, despite the 2nd highest wRC+ of his career, he's posted by far his worst exit velos and hard hit rate ever, while simultaneously running his highest ever BABIP. One could argue his luck is off the charts and there's just nothing the Dodgers could have done to predict it. It's tangential to the discussion at hand but I found it interesting.

Brasier isn't the only one who's seen short term success after going to the Dodgers. Lance Lynn has also had a couple of good starts since they traded for him, and they've also messed with his pitch mix. Maybe the Dodgers' pitch modeling is still ahead of other teams, maybe it's the unfamiliarity effect with hitters, maybe it's a bit of both.

It makes me wonder about guys who have been pitching in the same division for multiple seasons, especially relievers who tend to be mainly 2 pitch fastball-slider pitchers. Outside of having an elite-elite pitch like Mariano's cutter, you'd think it might be difficult to stay ahead of hitters after they've seen you for so long. I took a quick look at Brasier's pitch mix dating back to 2018, and I picked out Jordan Romano and Pete Fairbanks as two other relievers who have been in the AL East for a while and haven't really had a bad season in that time.

Brasier's fastball-slider use percentages starting from 2018: 63-32, 59-32, 62-33, 69-27, 56-43, 54-37.

Romano fastball-slider from 2019: 64-36, 40-60, 63-37, 48-52, 43-57.

Fairbanks fastball-slider from 2019: 44-56, 58-42, 59-41, 62-37, 47-52.

What stands out to me is that Brasier has pretty much always thrown predominantly 4-seam fastballs with slider usage around 1/3 of the time, whereas you see Fairbanks and Romano switching back and forth between their fastball or slider being >50% usage. And the average fastball velocity doesn't change much for any of those guys between seasons, so it wouldn't appear any of them were compensating for velocity dips. Just appears to me like Brasier hadn't needed much of a scouting report change in 5 seasons.

 

[moondog80]

Brasier has had 21 innings with a FIP of 3.27 with the Dodgers, compared to 3.79 with Boston (for his career). HIs K and BB rate with LA are both worse than his career numbers with the Red Sox. Even if you only look at this year, his Boston K rate is still better and his Boston BB rate isn't crazy worse (3.9 to 3.0). He is succeeding based on a hit rate of 4.3 and a HR rate of 0.4 per 9 innings. I'll take the over on those for the rest of the year.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Or the LA defense turned similar peripherals into better outcomes more often?

While that may be a factor among many, we're talking an ERA swing of 6 whole runs - 7.29 to 1.29.

Overall he's gotten better, but his splits against LHH show massive improvement. I wonder how much the cutter is in play there?

 

[moondog80]

I mean, does anyone who think Brasier is for real as a "dominant" reliever also think that the Sox pulled a .321 hitting middle infielder off the scrap heap in Pablo Reyes?

 

[chrisfont9]

I think Bloom's problem is an unwillingness to be aggressive. He'll make individual moves that make sense, but not necessarily address all of the problems or the big picture of what they're trying to accomplish. I keep calling back to the 2022 trade deadline when selling to get under the cap made more sense. As for this offseason, the only explanation that makes sense for me is that his mandate was to stay under the luxury tax threshold and acquire pieces that could field a moderately successful team until the kids are ready next year. If there isn't a true push for a complete roster next year than we absolutely have to consider that Chaim isn't a good executive. I'm sure there are many on here that are already at that point.

This offseason should be judged differently. Up til now they had either good excuses or compelling cases, depending on your trust level, for the slow/steady building approach, and they have said that it wouldn't make sense to take big swings until the financial and system depth pictures were better. Both of those things have happened, which is awesome, but if they don't pivot to a more aggressive approach, that would be a huge WTF.

If this speaks poorly of Bush's coaching then what does turning Bernardino and Schreiber into very good relievers speak of? Not to mention guys like Crawford and Murphy? Or does coaching only make guys worse and not better?

Turns out those lemons can only produce a finite amount of lemonade. I don't know why we spend time arguing about the lesser problems -- just how well was some middling reliever salvaged? -- when they all stem from the fact that 4/5ths of our rotation got injured at the same time.

As to all of the other issues, slumping offense, BABIP misery, the maddening tendency for the Sox to catch teams (even bad ones) right when they get hot, and the idiotic schedule of the last month... all of the teams ahead of them (as well as the Yankees) have allowed fewer than 500 runs. Sox are up to 531. Tampa lowest at 454, and by pythag record they should be 9 (!!!) games up on Baltimore.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Brasier has had 21 innings with a FIP of 3.27 with the Dodgers, compared to 3.79 with Boston (for his career). HIs K and BB rate with LA are both worse than his career numbers with the Red Sox. Even if you only look at this year, his Boston K rate is still better and his Boston BB rate isn't crazy worse (3.9 to 3.0). He is succeeding based on a hit rate of 4.3 and a HR rate of 0.4 per 9 innings. I'll take the over on those for the rest of the year.

Which is why the Sox kept throwing him out there. The skills were there, just not the results. Same reason behind Ort, no doubt. He will go elsewhere and with some good luck might be dominating for a period of time

 

[Rovin Romine]

I mean, does anyone who think Brasier is for real as a "dominant" reliever also think that the Sox pulled a .321 hitting middle infielder off the scrap heap in Pablo Reyes?

I'd buy a "serviceable with periods of dominance" reliever for sure, because that's what he more or less profiles as. The Sox were able to (health permitting) mine that talent occassionally. Thusfar, the Dodgers are off to a great start doing that.

Also, the Sox have pulled a .321 hitting MI in Pablo Reyes. . .because that's what he's doing. Is he likely to continue to do so going forward? Or continue as even a "passably hitting" backup MI?

Probably not as likely as Brasier is to provide decent bullpen relief. Probably not as likely as Refsnyder, who blossomed into a very serviceable player at age 31. But you never know.

 

[moondog80]

Also, the Sox have pulled a .321 hitting MI in Pablo Reyes. . .because that's what he's doing. Is he likely to continue to do so going forward? Or continue as even a "passably hitting" backup MI?

Eh. Semantics maybe, but If I flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads, that doesn't mean I have a coin that is 70% likely to come up heads.

Yes, they both might sustain their recent success. But the odds are heavily against them.

 

[chawson]

Brasier isn't the only one who's seen short term success after going to the Dodgers. Lance Lynn has also had a couple of good starts since they traded for him, and they've also messed with his pitch mix. Maybe the Dodgers' pitch modeling is still ahead of other teams, maybe it's the unfamiliarity effect with hitters, maybe it's a bit of both.

It makes me wonder about guys who have been pitching in the same division for multiple seasons, especially relievers who tend to be mainly 2 pitch fastball-slider pitchers. Outside of having an elite-elite pitch like Mariano's cutter, you'd think it might be difficult to stay ahead of hitters after they've seen you for so long. I took a quick look at Brasier's pitch mix dating back to 2018, and I picked out Jordan Romano and Pete Fairbanks as two other relievers who have been in the AL East for a while and haven't really had a bad season in that time.

Brasier's fastball-slider use percentages starting from 2018: 63-32, 59-32, 62-33, 69-27, 56-43, 54-37.

Romano fastball-slider from 2019: 64-36, 40-60, 63-37, 48-52, 43-57.

Fairbanks fastball-slider from 2019: 44-56, 58-42, 59-41, 62-37, 47-52.

What stands out to me is that Brasier has pretty much always thrown predominantly 4-seam fastballs with slider usage around 1/3 of the time, whereas you see Fairbanks and Romano switching back and forth between their fastball or slider being >50% usage. And the average fastball velocity doesn't change much for any of those guys between seasons, so it wouldn't appear any of them were compensating for velocity dips. Just appears to me like Brasier hadn't needed much of a scouting report change in 5 seasons.

Jake Diekman, recuperated as a fastball/changeup guy, has put up a 2.08 ERA over 26 innings for the Rays.

 

[Fishy1]

Eh. Semantics maybe, but If I flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads, that doesn't mean I have a coin that is 70% likely to come up heads.

Yes, they both might sustain their recent success. But the odds are heavily against them.

This leads me to something I've been thinking about.

On this board you have what I'd call the "causal skeptics": people who look at three orders of data/information before making any judgment call: results/eye test are compared to underlying peripherals before asking "is something wrong with management/coaching/attitude/approach?" Because the causal skeptics are liable to chalk up bad results produced by good peripherals as bad luck before trying to make adjustments, just as they are likely to take good results produced by bad peripherals as a sign to get out from under the anvil before it falls.

On the other hand, you have what I think of as the reactionary determinists: people who see bad results and assume that there must be some underlying and even irrevocable issue with the player, coaching, management, or attitude.

Obviously I'm in favor of the former approach: it allows us to be dispassionate. It's like looking under the hood of the car before declaring it dead and kicking the tires. But the two approaches aren't necessarily divorced from each other. You can take both.

When it comes to Brasier, I'm quite agnostic. Brasier had good peripherals in Boston and bad results, good peripherals and good results in LA. It's hard for me to say what is what, but I definitely would not bet on the coaching being the issue. That's not to say coaching can't be influential; it certainly can. Pitching coaches suggesting changes to pitch mix, coaches making suggestions to hitters (a la Pedroia and Duran in the offseason).

As for Ort, he was a bad peripherals/bad results guy. He struck out a lot of guys in the minors, but always walked too many people, and he was never going to adjust in the bigs until he made an adjustment in his control, and that just never happened. He hung around in Boston because they didn't have anyone better and because Bloom values guys with options because there's such a 40 man roster crunch these days. Now that the Sox have better options he's rightfully disappeared.

 

[beautokyo]

...for sadomasochists

No arguement from me......I do really? Seriously? in my head at times......

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Credit where it's due, I like the way Cora has used his bullpen tonight. Using his top 4 relievers in back to back games, going for wins in winnable games. Tomorrow will be a challenge, but get this one in the win column and then figure out a strategy for tomorrow.

 

[LogansDad]

Credit where it's due, I like the way Cora has used his bullpen tonight. Using his top 4 relievers in back to back games, going for wins in winnable games. Tomorrow will be a challenge, but get this one in the win column and then figure out a strategy for tomorrow.

I agree, but it is 100% necessary at this point. They have to be all in on every winnable game from here on out, and there is zero margin for error left.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I agree, but it is 100% necessary at this point. They have to be all in on every winnable game from here on out, and there is zero margin for error left.

To a degree, but for example, they aren't going to be able to do it again tomorrow if it's another 2-0 game.

 

[Bergs]

I mean, when a guy struggles for 2 years here without Bush being able to get him untracked and he goes to a new team and they change his pitch selection and he turns into Mariano Rivera, it's probably fair to question the coaching.

"On track"?

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Credit where it's due, I like the way Cora has used his bullpen tonight. Using his top 4 relievers in back to back games, going for wins in winnable games. Tomorrow will be a challenge, but get this one in the win column and then figure out a strategy for tomorrow.

I imagine Bernardino, Barraclough, and Murphy would be next after Sale.