Correa or Bust, or, How Much is that SS in the Window, the One With the Questionable Back?

What is the most you would offer Corea?

  • $360M+ (Litterally whatever he wants)

  • $340M - $360M (He's going to get more than Lindor)

  • $300M - $340M (He'll get the best SS deal signed this off-season)

  • $250M - $300M (The market is exhausted & all the crazy spenders are gone, but someone will pay him)

  • $150M - $250M (Boras overplayed his hand again, and he's taking a high AAV/ shorter term deal)

  • $0 (He's a cheating cheater who cheats and I don't want him on the Red Sox)


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OCD SS

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If we're going to consider Swanson, we should also consider Correa, who is in his second year as the premiere SS on the FA market.

He has the best performance indicators on both sides of the ball, he's the youngest, and he doesn't have a qualifying offer attached. He also seems very bright and is interested in the analytics underlying the game, which may help translate what Bloom and the Sox are trying to do to the clubhouse. But he also has a history of missing games and unless you think he's taking another short term deal, the length is going to take him up to (and probably beyond) his playing career.

Of course it seems like the Sox under Bloom are just not going to eat any of this money on the back end, so this is probably a theoretical exercise (especially given recent comments by Bloom about lateral moves in the SS market), but if the Sox can't extend Devers, Correa on a long term deal would then be able to slide over to 3B if Mayer proves to be a better option.

The poll is just total dollars, tricks to bring down the AAV are irrelevant.
 

simplicio

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Voted the cheapest option, as the poll is about what he's worth to the Sox, not what I think he'll get when he goes elsewhere (my guess is 320-350). We already displayed pretty clearly that we aren't in the market for a 200m+ SS.
 

pedro1999mvp

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I highly doubt we go long term with Correa who has a bad back and no history of playing in Boston if we wouldn't go long term with Bogey. But I voted for the 150-250 option because even though I doubt it's what he and Boras are looking for, I would at least throw some big money for short term (4 for 150) at him and see if he bites. Highly unlikely we are a player in the Correa sweepstakes, but I didn't want to vote 0.
 

chawson

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I 100% doubt we sign him. Mayer is our future SS, and you block him with a massive contract to someone else would just be dumb. He'll go to the Giants.
FWIW, the Giants also have a shortstop prospect of roughly equal caliber (Mayer is #7 in MLB's Top 100; Luciano is #17) who is much closer to the majors, though less likely to stick at short long-term than Mayer. They've also got a really slick defensive shortstop prospect in Aeverson Arteaga in Low-A. Some scouts (like Keith Law) say he's got a promising bat, and he's projected to hit the majors in 2025.
 

OCD SS

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I 100% doubt we sign him. Mayer is our future SS, and you block him with a massive contract to someone else would just be dumb. He'll go to the Giants.
In this case the way things have played out I'm assuming that the Sox can't get certainty with Devers, and so he's traded. The issue with X and Devers is that if you wanted to lock Devers up long term, he and Story block the most logical landing spots for X when he is finally moved off SS. Once you move Devers though 3B is open when Mayer is ready (which is assuming that Mayer isn't better as a 3Bman). Also, a deal of real length for Correa could also see him moving to 2B when Story leaves.

In this scenario I'm trying to decide if the Sox unwillingness to sign anyone to a mega contract is going to mean they're just not competitive for the next several years, since we're only seeing talent leave, of if it's possible to cobble together a 2013 "deep depth" style short term fix while they continue to build their prospect depth...
 

Dustin the Wind

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FWIW, the Giants also have a shortstop prospect of roughly equal caliber (Mayer is #7 in MLB's Top 100; Luciano is #17) who is much closer to the majors, though less likely to stick at short long-term than Mayer. They've also got a really slick defensive shortstop prospect in Aeverson Arteaga in Low-A. Some scouts (like Keith Law) say he's got a promising bat, and he's projected to hit the majors in 2025.
To piggy back off of this, I don't really see why a prospect, even of Mayer's caliber would block a team that wishes to contend from signing one of the best players in all of baseball. Setting aside what we think of Mayer, of course we all have promising outlooks for his future, wouldn't it be a great problem to have if in a few years the Red Sox had two very athletic and capable defensive shortstops? Carlos Correa is the perfect fit for this team. An impact right handed bat, who's defense allows you to keep Story at second, who looked great there, with questions on how well he'd return shortstop, as well as elevate those around him, and assist a young pitching staff with his defensive stability. In my personal (worthless) opinion, Correa seems to be the perfect premier free agent to spend big on.
 

Manramsclan

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Offer him $360 M for 10 years.

To me, that's the only way this team stays competitive for the next 5 years. Once the first wave of Bloom's prospects hit the Sox will then hopefully have more than one spot at the league minimum. If those prospects don't pan out, he team will be terrible anyway. At least with Correa you have a monster in the lineup who can move down the defensive spectrum (or perhaps even DH) and still hit and for at least the next 5 years you have a great defender and middle of the order bat.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I changed my vote to "whatever it takes."

At this point, I think there is very little chance we sign Devers, and I think our pitching is not anywhere nearly good enough to be a true contender. The only pieces I look at and say "they're the core" for the future are Casas (whom hasn't shown an ability to hit LHP in AA or AAA, which is a concern), Story and Yoshida on the offensive side, and we really have no idea how good either Casas or Yoshida will be in the majors.

On the pitching side, it's Whitlock and Bello.

I think they need to address the middle of their order long term, and I think they need to show there is some desire / commitment toward winning in the short and medium term, at his age, Correa is still young enough that even if you don't believe the supporting offense or the rotation in general is good enough to contend this year (raises hand) and maybe even next you need something to build around.

To be clear, I think there is almost a literal 0% chance we sign Correa (or Devers). But it's what would I do, and I'd sign him for whatever it takes.
 
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chawson

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To piggy back off of this, I don't really see why a prospect, even of Mayer's caliber would block a team that wishes to contend from signing one of the best players in all of baseball. Setting aside what we think of Mayer, of course we all have promising outlooks for his future, wouldn't it be a great problem to have if in a few years the Red Sox had two very athletic and capable defensive shortstops? Carlos Correa is the perfect fit for this team. An impact right handed bat, who's defense allows you to keep Story at second, who looked great there, with questions on how well he'd return shortstop, as well as elevate those around him, and assist a young pitching staff with his defensive stability. In my personal (worthless) opinion, Correa seems to be the perfect premier free agent to spend big on.
I completely agree. I voted $340-360M. I don't think it will take quite so much, but who knows.

I think there's a good chance Correa ages well. I could see him aging in his mid-thirties as a third baseman who's above-average across the board without being exceptional, kind of like a Scott Rolen-type.
 

simplicio

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I agree on all that as well except for the part where it ignores that you're gambling a huge chunk of payroll on a guy with a history of back problems. That's too much long term risk for me to want to cut a check that big.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think.... I think I'm in the Correa or bust brain right now and in the $300-340M range at 12 years and even allowing an opt-out after 2 years. I suspect adding him would help to get Devers signed long-term also, just showing that yes, they're committed to winning and they want him to be part of the next core. That said... if they can add Correa, I think the SP and BP are in fine shape to actually compete in '23 as is, no other additions (realizing I'm in the minority here) necessary. If they're struggling and fail to extend Devers, then look to blow up the team and trade Devers at the deadline. Sure, the return will be less but if you do sign Correa you have to try and go for it this season as long as Devers is still here and motivated to stay healthy and super productive. Already been discussed how to accommodate Mayer, and I think Correa's bat and arm would translate better to a move to 3B if he doesn't opt-out. In the scenario that Devers is no longer on the team in '24 and Mayer isn't ML ready.... I'm sure they can find a 3B easier than a SS for a one year deal.
 

Benj4ever

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To piggy back off of this, I don't really see why a prospect, even of Mayer's caliber would block a team that wishes to contend from signing one of the best players in all of baseball. Setting aside what we think of Mayer, of course we all have promising outlooks for his future, wouldn't it be a great problem to have if in a few years the Red Sox had two very athletic and capable defensive shortstops? Carlos Correa is the perfect fit for this team. An impact right handed bat, who's defense allows you to keep Story at second, who looked great there, with questions on how well he'd return shortstop, as well as elevate those around him, and assist a young pitching staff with his defensive stability. In my personal (worthless) opinion, Correa seems to be the perfect premier free agent to spend big on.
I wouldn't put Correa in the "best in all of baseball" bracket. I wouldn't mind too much if they signed him to a short (<4 years) deal, but that's about it.
 

Hank Scorpio

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3/$150 - then an opt out - 2/$80 - then an opt out - 6/$120

We get him for 3 years at $50mil, and he then gets to decide if he wants to opt into 8/$200

We then potentially get him for two more years at $40mil, before he has to decide if he wants to stick around for 6/$120.

Possibly get him for 11/$350, but maybe he’s here for three years at an insane AAV, puts up MVP numbers, and then leaves town just in time for Mayer to step in.
 

jon abbey

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3/$150 - then an opt out - 2/$80 - then an opt out - 6/$120

We get him for 3 years at $50mil, and he then gets to decide if he wants to opt into 8/$200

We then potentially get him for two more years at $40mil, before he has to decide if he wants to stick around for 6/$120.

Possibly get him for 11/$350, but maybe he’s here for three years at an insane AAV, puts up MVP numbers, and then leaves town just in time for Mayer to step in.
I think this would get him, I don't think there's any way BOS actually offers it, but I do think it would work.
 

ehaz

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No way that Boston offers it but I'd go to $300-340M over 11 years easily. Basically the Bogaerts deal + an extra $20-60M.
 

bosockboy

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The Sox not playing in the deep end of the pool is a big problem for Boras as it removes a big spender. I bet he’ll get creative to engage them on Correa.
 

mr_smith02

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Why would Correa want to come to Boston, especially with the likelihood that Devers will be the next big name heading out of town? I know the quick answer will be money, but this off-season has shown that is not the singular driving force in the decision-making process for these players.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Why would Correa want to come to Boston, especially with the likelihood that Devers will be the next big name heading out of town? I know the quick answer will be money, but this off-season has shown that is not the singular driving force in the decision-making process for these players.
I think that absolutely plays a role with guys whom are chasing a ring toward the end of their careers. For someone like Abreu, Verlander or similar with other suitors who'd pay as much money and are much closer to contention than the Red Sox, coming to Boston doesn't make a bit of sense.

Correa on the other hand is still young, and he did just sign with the Minnesota Twins. If he were leaving Houston, I'd tend to agree, but he's already shown a willingness to join a bad team. If we offer him the most money, I don't see a reason this player specifically wouldn't join our bad team.
 

chrisfont9

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To piggy back off of this, I don't really see why a prospect, even of Mayer's caliber would block a team that wishes to contend from signing one of the best players in all of baseball. Setting aside what we think of Mayer, of course we all have promising outlooks for his future, wouldn't it be a great problem to have if in a few years the Red Sox had two very athletic and capable defensive shortstops? Carlos Correa is the perfect fit for this team. An impact right handed bat, who's defense allows you to keep Story at second, who looked great there, with questions on how well he'd return shortstop, as well as elevate those around him, and assist a young pitching staff with his defensive stability. In my personal (worthless) opinion, Correa seems to be the perfect premier free agent to spend big on.
I think if you are trying to be the astros, you avoid these commitments and wait for your prospects, even knowing the risk that they won't work out. It works well if your team is actually good at developing prospects and your fanbase is patient or indifferent enough to tolerate the losing seasons. Obviously those are both sticking points for the Sox.
 

LoweTek

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Reports yesterday indicated Correa had a significant offer in hand from the Twins. Today there was indication the Giants were interested. Giants are flush with LT space so I'd assume they will be aggressive. I don't see the RS offering these 8-10 year megadeals carrying players into mid-late 30s decline years. Why would Correa go short term if he doesn't have to?
 

TomRicardo

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I don't get bidding in for Correa at this point. I don't think he is going to change the fortunes of this team. They decided to go real cheap outside of Jansen who at this point doesn't make a ton of sense (unless you think you can flip him in July for some prospects). I think you are better off going after Rodon then getting a grab bag of Conforto, Brantley, and Andrus on shorter deals. Or you can stand pat and the team can put up banners on the Monster celebrating getting their payroll in the bottom half of the league.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I don't get bidding in for Correa at this point. I don't think he is going to change the fortunes of this team. They decided to go real cheap outside of Jansen who at this point doesn't make a ton of sense (unless you think you can flip him in July for some prospects). I think you are better off going after Rodon then getting a grab bag of Conforto, Brantley, and Andrus on shorter deals. Or you can stand pat and the team can put up banners on the Monster celebrating getting their payroll in the bottom half of the league.
To be fair, it's not like we've gone "cheap." Yoshida at $19m per isn't cheap. Paying $8m for a middle reliever isn't cheap. At present with nothing else, our projected payroll (arbitration) is around $193m (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/) and I'm sure we'll spend money on bargain basement things like $8m on Noah Syndergaard, $7m on Drew Smyly and $12m on Jean Segura and have a payroll in the $210M range.

That said, think they're putting out a $210m payroll on a team that has no real prospect of winning much of anything (regardless of if they're within a handful of games of the last wild card spot at some point in July) and in no way do I agree with how we're choosing to spend the $200m or so, but they're spending it and will likely be somewhere in the top 10 in spending, conservatively.
 

chrisfont9

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I don't get bidding in for Correa at this point. I don't think he is going to change the fortunes of this team. They decided to go real cheap outside of Jansen who at this point doesn't make a ton of sense (unless you think you can flip him in July for some prospects). I think you are better off going after Rodon then getting a grab bag of Conforto, Brantley, and Andrus on shorter deals. Or you can stand pat and the team can put up banners on the Monster celebrating getting their payroll in the bottom half of the league.
I mean, they decided not to pay Xander a contract that 90% of people here agreed he shouldn't be paid. But "cheap"? I dunno, let's wait a month or so before declaring the offseason dead and gone.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I mean, they decided not to pay Xander a contract that 90% of people here agreed he shouldn't be paid. But "cheap"? I dunno, let's wait a month or so before declaring the offseason dead and gone.
FWIW, saw a tweet this morning with this info in it. Guaranteed money given to free agents by AL East teams so far this winter: Yankees $411.5M, Red Sox $137.5M, Jays $63M, Rays $40M, O's $10M. Take that as you will.

And let's call it what it is: saying the Red Sox are "cheap" or "going cheap" is a lazy shortcut way of saying they aren't spending their money the way *I* want them to spend it.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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FWIW, saw a tweet this morning with this info in it. Guaranteed money given to free agents by AL East teams so far this winter: Yankees $411.5M, Red Sox $137.5M, Jays $63M, Rays $40M, O's $10M. Take that as you will.

And let's call it what it is: saying the Red Sox are "cheap" or "going cheap" is a lazy shortcut way of saying they aren't spending their money the way *I* want them to spend it.
Not all teams have the same number of openings though; value of free agents acquired - free agents lost could be more yelling.

ultimately, it seems like the Sox strategy is to spend the most amount in the next year while committing the least possible to future years.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Not all teams have the same number of openings though; value of free agents acquired - free agents lost could be more yelling.

ultimately, it seems like the Sox strategy is to spend the most amount in the next year while committing the least possible to future years.
Definitely has been a lot of yelling here about lost free agents.
Now that the Red Sox are reported to be in on Correa, looks like we won't be signing him.
 

JM3

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Why would Correa want to come to Boston, especially with the likelihood that Devers will be the next big name heading out of town? I know the quick answer will be money, but this off-season has shown that is not the singular driving force in the decision-making process for these players.
$$$ (if they offer it), plus he's really close with Alex Cora. They're both from Puerto Rico & Cora was his bench coach in Houston. & they bonded over trashcan gate...
 

TomRicardo

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I mean, they decided not to pay Xander a contract that 90% of people here agreed he shouldn't be paid. But "cheap"? I dunno, let's wait a month or so before declaring the offseason dead and gone.
The team is not going to be very good especially if they don't make some moves. They will struggle to get to 70-75 wins with the team currently. I am not sure how they would market the team. They are not going use Devers if they think he is gone. The banner for undersized payroll is tongue in cheek for how this team really can't market the existing turd they have.

Maybe because I was brief, my main thesis was advocating for picking up some short term high AAV contracts trying to hit lightning in a bottle. It would more value than spending a ton of money on a guy who won't turn them into a winning team. You could call that cheap but I am feeling with knee jerk "defense" of the front office that wouldn't be your first instinct. I think you would get more expected value for spending 40 mil AAV for Andrus, Brantley, and Conforto than 35 mil AAV for Correa while not locking yourself up.

The main value is allowing you to dump the contract if you want to move Rafaela up in the middle of the season. If we are going to lose this season I rather treat the season like 2014 and have some new players come up midseason and gauge where they are.
 

chrisfont9

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The team is not going to be very good especially if they don't make some moves. They will struggle to get to 70-75 wins with the team currently. I am not sure how they would market the team. They are not going use Devers if they think he is gone. The banner for undersized payroll is tongue in cheek for how this team really can't market the existing turd they have.

Maybe because I was brief, my main thesis was advocating for picking up some short term high AAV contracts trying to hit lightning in a bottle. It would more value than spending a ton of money on a guy who won't turn them into a winning team. You could call that cheap but I am feeling with knee jerk "defense" of the front office that wouldn't be your first instinct. I think you would get more expected value for spending 40 mil AAV for Andrus, Brantley, and Conforto than 35 mil AAV for Correa while not locking yourself up.

The main value is allowing you to dump the contract if you want to move Rafaela up in the middle of the season. If we are going to lose this season I rather treat the season like 2014 and have some new players come up midseason and gauge where they are.
We might be close in our views. I am all for short term contracts of whatever sub-LT value. I see their plan as bearing fruit in 2024 or 25, more likely, so I don't care a ton about what they do for 2023 besides continuing to build. A few veteran FA contracts are fine, especially on the pitching side where they tend to be stabilizers in the short run. The essential conflict is that they keep denying they are on a longer-term rebuild, so on top of our natural impatience we are being baited into even greater impatience by their CYA public statements. Just rebuild, do it smart, pay the guys who will be good after 2025. If they want to spend more and win now too, that's OK by me, I don't care about Henry's money as long as they are under the LT. But I don't expect much to really change for another year or two. I can focus on the Celtics and getting my kid into college until then.
 

themactavish

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Like others, I see a discrepancy between the numerical figure (what you'd endorse offering) and the parenthetical remarks (which make predictions about what Correa is likely to get in light of the market). On the latter, I think he's sure to get $300M+. But if I were the Sox, I wouldn't shell out more than the $150-250M range, since (a) he won't make the difference between the Sox being mediocre and being really competitive, and (b) if Mayer is the real thing (maybe he's not), they wouldn't need to pay top dollar for Correa once Mayer comes along. A high AAV deal would be a different story, but that would surely fall in that $150-250M range.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I still think Correa makes more sense on a high dollar short year contract. If we were signing one of the SS to a large dollar and year contract though, I’d prefer Correa over the others.
 

Seels

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I agree with Tom and don't see a point. It already seems like they're writing off 2023 so why bother spending an extra $40m a year for it
 

chawson

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I agree with Tom and don't see a point. It already seems like they're writing off 2023 so why bother spending an extra $40m a year for it
I don't see how you arrive here at all. If the Sox sign Correa (roughly 5 WAR and Eovaldi (roughly 2.5), they've got the fifth-best fWAR projection in the AL. If they do both of those and trade for, say, Hoskins or Kepler, they're roughly tied with the Astros for the fourth-best projection.
 

Seels

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That's a lot of ifs for a team that still has basically 0 chance of even getting to 90 wins.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I don't see how you arrive here at all. If the Sox sign Correa (roughly 5 WAR and Eovaldi (roughly 2.5), they've got the fifth-best fWAR projection in the AL. If they do both of those and trade for, say, Hoskins or Kepler, they're roughly tied with the Astros for the fourth-best projection.
They don't even need to sign Correa. Work to sign Eovaldi or Wacha, trade for a shortstop, then wait out the right field/DH market for the best fit. In the meantime, see if a free agent has their market crumble and will take a big dollar/short year contract and explore whether a favorable trade might materialize. That team will be in the mix for a playoff spot without burdening the future with huge contracts for players in their late 30s and without giving up draft picks or international signing money. Onward and upward.
 

streeter88

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That's a lot of ifs for a team that still has basically 0 chance of even getting to 90 80 wins.
FTFY.
Sorry, this is kind of a wise ass thing to do, but I am in the camp that says we should shut down further spending especially on new FA hitters, focus on pitching and defense, and play the kids. If Devers can't be resigned, deal him at the deadline for prospects.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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While I’d get the “why bother” on someone like Verlander at his age, I don’t get it for Correa. He’s going to be 28 next season, and would be a core piece to build around. I can totally understand an argument about him not being worth it due to injury history or some other factor, but if you’re talking an 8-10 year deal, the Red Sox will ostensibly be playing baseball after 2023 and will have need for good players.

I also don’t get the “but he blocks Mayer” argument for a player like Correa (or Bogaerts, but that ship has sailed). Mayer has had all of one month in High A, he is an excellent prospect, but he (or Correa) could easily be moved down the defensive alignment.

Or Mayer can be traded to address another weakness if we happen to have the shortstop of the present also being the shortstop of the future. You have to start building a core somewhere and Correa would easily be the most talented piece of said core if we signed him.

I absolutely understand the logic behind wanting to pay him (talent, age, performance, position) or not (injury history), they‘re both logical. But I really don’t think the state of the team for one year out of a long term deal is reason to not sign someone.

To be clear, I don’t think there is any chance we will pay the money for Correa, it’s just a more interesting discussion than two “meh” pieces we might sign as the difference between being a 72 win team or a 74 win team like Elvis Andrus or Jean Segura.
 
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Hee Sox Choi

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FTFY.
Sorry, this is kind of a wise ass thing to do, but I am in the camp that says we should shut down further spending especially on new FA hitters, focus on pitching and defense, and play the kids. If Devers can't be resigned, deal him at the deadline for prospects.
What "kids?"
Casas will be the starting 1B. No one else is really close.
Looking at BP's top10 - Mayer, Raffaela, Bleis, Yorke, etc. None are close. Mata is coming off of surgery. There are some guys that might be RP but I don't see many kids that will be up this year. Who am I missing?
 

simplicio

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Soxprospects gives Rafaela a late '23 ETA, fwiw. Seems like he's lined up to take over the CF/utility role from Hernandez.
 

Benj4ever

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FTFY.
Sorry, this is kind of a wise ass thing to do, but I am in the camp that says we should shut down further spending especially on new FA hitters, focus on pitching and defense, and play the kids. If Devers can't be resigned, deal him at the deadline for prospects.
I would agree, to a point. I'd like to maintain as much financial flexibility as possible (i.e., stay away from long-term deals), but I'm fine with short-term deals for guys in their early 30s. And, yeah, I value defense highly, so I'd like to see Jose Iglesias back in a Sox uniform.
 

glennhoffmania

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The Mets are interested:

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mets have some interest in All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, who became a free agent after he opted out of his contract with the Twins. Presumably, Correa would shift to third base in deference to current Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor. Whatever the specifics, consider the Mets a surprise entrant into the Correa fray.
Link
 

streeter88

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What "kids?"
Casas will be the starting 1B. No one else is really close.
Looking at BP's top10 - Mayer, Raffaela, Bleis, Yorke, etc. None are close. Mata is coming off of surgery. There are some guys that might be RP but I don't see many kids that will be up this year. Who am I missing?
Sorry, "kids" was too glib and vague. Basically, try to cobble together a lineup with the players they have now - Casas / Dalbec at 1B, Arroyo, Story, Devers (if not traded); Wong / McGuire at C; platoon at DH; Yoshida, Kike, Verdugo, Refsnyder in OF. Don't waste significant further $$ on hitters with maybe the exception of Iglesias or a 3B of similar grade. Any investments now should be simply bridging for 2024/25 - as that logically seems to be the Bloom / FSG plan anyway.

I was thinking about the end of the shift and its predicted impact on offense, and my guess is that the defensive metrics collected from at least the last 3-4 years are probably not relevant as the shift has been extensively in use for most of that time. I have to hope that the front office has devoted substantial research and thinking on this issue, and would guess they have a list of both hitters and fielders (and pitchers) who they think will benefit most (suffer least). I am not that guy who has the tools, time or skill to try to create such a list, but that's what I would be doing if I were Bloom and his staff. (in fact if they actually got that part right, it would be the one saving grace for this completely frustrating offseason to date).