Daryl Morey & The Houston Rockets

[Statman]

Lets ignore the idea that Morey "f'ed up" (which I think is wrong, but reasonable minds can differ) - how did he cost his chance to compete for a title for the next couple years?

 
Not trying to speak for Clears Cleaver, but my belief is that Morey totally screwed up this off season for the Rockets and significantly weakened them as championship contenders.
 
For me, two huge mistakes were made:

1) Declining Parsons' team option and consequently losing him for nothing. This was an unacceptable gamble and backfired massively. 
 
As discussed upthread, Morey did not do his job if he did not think that some team out there with cap space was going to throw a massive offer to Parsons as a RFA.  The option would have brought back Parsons at $960,000 which is chump change even if you are trying to shead salaries to try and bring in a 3rd max salary player (i.e., Bosh).  Morey could have exercised the option and then dumped someone like Motiejunas ($1.5M) if Bosh committed to them. 

2) Trading away Asik and Lin for nothing in return (I consider the 1st rounders in both transaction to cancel each other out) before having 100% assurances of signing a major free agent to replace their cap holds. The Rockets went from having a mediocre bench to now having no bench whatsoever and apparently no plans to add major players to replace the ones we lost.
 
Just take a look at the Rockets right now.  When Isaiah Canaan and Francisco Garcia are your backup PG/SG respectively, you have serious problems. 

 

[Statman]

I mean, I expect them to mostly tread water (Ariza is just as good as Parsons), but even if you don't think Ariza is a good fit, they weren't really title contenders with Parsons regardless, right? And there's no "couple years" impact - it's one season.
 
This isn't a nitpicky point - it's related to the size of the risk.

 
I disagree that Ariza is as good as Parsons because you simply can't compare their stats and say that Ariza is going to replace X% of what Parsons provided. 
 
If the Rockets would have exercised Parson's option he would be on the books for $960,000 next year which still leaves the Rockets with a ton of cap space to throw a 2-3 year at $10M per year at someone like Deng.  Deng would have seriously helped the team because he actually cares about playing defense. 

 

[bowiac]

my understanding is that Houston has little in assets to trade and a roster that is likely worse than last year. with limited flexibility to do something next year. He went for it and it didn't work and now he has the fifth or sixth best team in the conference with limited flexibility. That is NBA hell, right?

Okay, but if he'd picked up Parsons' option, then he'd be in mostly the same situation, right? The "mistake" didn't cost them a shot at multiple championships, did it?
 
I don't think they're in NBA hell, but that's basically neither here nor there.

 

[bowiac]

If the Rockets would have exercised Parson's option he would be on the books for $960,000 next year which still leaves the Rockets with a ton of cap space to throw a 2-3 year at $10M per year at someone like Deng.  Deng would have seriously helped the team because he actually cares about playing defense. 

Are they a championship contender with Deng and Parsons do you think? Not that Deng would sign for 2 years/$10M with Houston, but they could have given him 4 years if needed.
 
I think Ariza is as good as Parsons because of fit, not because of any stats. I think he's probably a slight improvement over Parsons considering fit actually.

 

[bowiac]

As discussed upthread, Morey did not do his job if he did not think that some team out there with cap space was going to throw a massive offer to Parsons as a RFA.  The option would have brought back Parsons at $960,000 which is chump change even if you are trying to shead salaries to try and bring in a 3rd max salary player (i.e., Bosh).  Morey could have exercised the option and then dumped someone like Motiejunas ($1.5M) if Bosh committed to them. 

He wasn't trying to clear room for Bosh. Declining Parsons' option actually increased his cap hold. He was trying to keep Parsons and add a max guy, which he could only do by declining the option.

 

[Statman]

Are they a championship contender with Deng and Parsons do you think? Not that Deng would sign for 2 years/$10M with Houston, but they could have given him 4 years if needed.
 

 
With Deng and Parsons, they definitely would be a better team for the next year or two, than without those players.  For me, I will always take a stronger team over a weaker team.
 
Also as to Deng, maybe I wasn't clear, but I was specifically referring to offering Deng as 2-3 year deal at 10M PER year - essentially the same offer that he signed for in Miami except for an extra year (or two since Houston could have offered him a 4-year deal). 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Are they a championship contender with Deng and Parsons do you think? Not that Deng would sign for 2 years/$10M with Houston, but they could have given him 4 years if needed.
 
I think Ariza is as good as Parsons because of fit, not because of any stats. I think he's probably a slight improvement over Parsons considering fit actually.

On the surface Ariza appears to be a very capable Parsons replacement. However there is history to suggest he *may* suffer from JPS (James Posey Syndrome) of conveniently having a big year when it financially benefits him only to stop caring afterward.

 

[bowiac]

With Deng and Parsons, they definitely would be a better team for the next year or two, than without those players.  For me, I will always take a stronger team over a weaker team.
 
Also as to Deng, maybe I wasn't clear, but I was specifically referring to offering Deng as 2-3 year deal at 10M PER year - essentially the same offer that he signed for in Miami except for an extra year (or two since Houston could have offered him a 4-year deal). 

If they'd picked up Parsons' option, they only have him for a year. So they'd be stronger for a year, then be struck with Deng, no Parsons, and no cap flexibility thereafter. Plus they'd have abandoned any shot of getting Parsons and Bosh/Melo.
 
Deng refused to sign with Houston for the same deal Miami offered. He wanted 4 years from them.

 

[bowiac]

On the surface Ariza appears to be a very capable Parsons replacement. However there is history to suggest he *may* suffer from JPS (James Posey Syndrome) of conveniently having a big year when it financially benefits him only to stop caring afterward.

That's possible, sure. He's always been a pretty good defender however, which is largely what they needed from the wing.

 

[jon abbey]

Zach Lowe on this, among other things:
 
http://grantland.com/features/2014-nba-free-agency-winners-and-losers-houston-rockets-chandler-parsons/

 

[Statman]

If they'd picked up Parsons' option, they only have him for a year. So they'd be stronger for a year, then be struck with Deng, no Parsons, and no cap flexibility thereafter.
 

 
That's not true, because it assumes that Parsons would have left as an UFA after the 2014-2015 season.  If they picked up Parson's option this year, his cap hold for the upcoming season would be $1,833,025 which not only brings Parsons back, but gives them flexibility to possibly pursue a max guy in 2015. 
 
The Rockets would be able to use all of their available cap room in 2015 — except for the $1,833,025 Parsons cap hold amount — to pursue outside free agents in 2015 (in a free agent class that is expected to include Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge), then later exceed the salary cap to re-sign Parsons to any amount using his Bird rights. 

 

[jon abbey]

Crucial point from the Lowe piece that no one has mentioned here (because no one knew it before really):
 
"No one directly involved with the Parsons negotiations will confirm it, but it is widely suspected around the league that Dan Fegan, the lead agent representing Parsons and Howard, made it clear that accelerating Parsons’s payday was an unofficial part of the Howard contract. The Wizards splurged on Martell Webster last summer in part because Fegan represents both Webster and John Wall, per several league sources. This is not an uncommon thing; the Cavaliers may soon experience it with Thompson."

 

[Tony C]

Man, as someone who once had a tangential relationship to the agenting business, if true I find that absolutely unethical.

 

[Statman]

Here is an interesting piece on Morey that summarizes how I feel about him as a GM.
 
https://medium.com/the-cauldron/the-man-who-sold-the-world-3df16d8b754a

 

[bowiac]

Man, as someone who once had a tangential relationship to the agenting business, if true I find that absolutely unethical.

I get tidbits here and there, and it is absolutely mind boggling. Besides stuff like this Fegan situation (which I don't know anything about - I've avoided asking), teams have caught open shenanigans, like an agent being paid an envelope full of cash by a team to withhold a prospect from a workout, and stuff like that.
 
I mostly didn't believe in this side of the business, thinking it couldn't work that way for such a big business, but I've told repeatedly that it does.

 

[Blacken]

This stuff doesn't surprise me. The NBA is big business, but not Big Business. Many teams are run by jokers.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

ugh, that's brutal. makes signing Howard a lot less attractive

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

That's pretty tough in a league where top talent is at such a premium. Belichick can swear off a Tom Condon and not worry too much about it affecting his team. NBA is a much smaller club.

 

[swingin val]

if Morey's actions had been done by Billy King or David Kahn, it would be a national mocking fest.

That's because both those guys have shown themselves to be completely clueless when it comes to a running a basketball team. Where as Morey has shown that he is quite good at his job.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Crucial point from the Lowe piece that no one has mentioned here (because no one knew it before really):
 
"No one directly involved with the Parsons negotiations will confirm it, but it is widely suspected around the league that Dan Fegan, the lead agent representing Parsons and Howard, made it clear that accelerating Parsons’s payday was an unofficial part of the Howard contract. The Wizards splurged on Martell Webster last summer in part because Fegan represents both Webster and John Wall, per several league sources. This is not an uncommon thing; the Cavaliers may soon experience it with Thompson."

 
Someone did allude to it being a favor (wink/nod) to the agent in one of the threads, presumably they have better sources than the rest of us!  Don't remember who offhand.
 
The other consideration with Parsons that cuts against Morey's process was that he had trade value; believe it was argued here on SoSH during the year that Parsons was close to if not the most valuable trade commodity around because of his production and salary...whether or not that is true, it speaks to there being something of value there which was not realized.    This doesn't change my overall view that Houston took a reasonable gamble to try and build a championship roster and missed...but it is part of the assessment of Morey.

 

[bowiac]

I am curious about the trade value element - I can't think of a precedent for someone like Parsons on a one year deal.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

since Morey has been the GM (2007) the Rockets have finished 5th, 5th, 9th, 9th, 9th, 5th and 4th in the conference and averaged 46 wins. they've won exactly one playoff series in that time. Last year was high water mark with 54 wins, but it is not clear the team is any better or closer to winning anything this year given the changes to the roster. Morey is considered brilliant but the numbers suggest he has been only adequate. And his big moves in acquiring Harden via trade, Howard via FA and clearing space to sign Bosh/Melo/Lebron are moderate successes so far. He basically built his team to win in 2015 and 2016 and he isn't going to do that. It will be a rebuild from there again.  
 
One issue I see is that he has hit on late draft picks but has dealt away or lost guys like Landry, PPatterson and PArsons and gotten nothing back for them. and he whiffed on his highest pick, Royce White. Terence Jones looks like a good pick, a solid rotation guy
 
The should have some payroll flexibility in 2015 and 2016, especially if the cap opens up with a new TV deal. But if they couldn't get anyone to come this year, why think it will be any easier next year or year after? Howard is signed for three years and Harden four more years. Maybe if he can trade for a legit PG? But he has almost no attractive trade assets.

 

[bowiac]

The issue you've mostly identified is that success in the NBA isn't easy, and there are no sure paths to anything. You need a lot of talent to win, and acquiring high end talent is mostly a function of circumstances beyond your control (the lottery, geography, and birth). The reason people like Morey is that he's acquired two stars, has maintained his best assets (cap flexibility), and fielded a good team in the process. People also like the process - you can't be results oriented in evaluating these guys. The sample size is too small and there's too much noise.
 
They didn't get anyone this year. Last year they got Howard. The year before they got Harden. That's why it's reasonable to think they've got a good shot going forward at getting a third guy - they've done it before, even if they didn't do it this year.
 
There's no formula though, and there are no guarantees. I would sign up for the Celtics having as good a next seven years as the Rockets though.

 

[mcpickl]

Well, because if any of the six don't happen, then Houston is fine? What part confuses you?
 
Houston couldn't offer Parsons a three year max. Doing so would have changed Parsons' cap hold, and prevented them from signing Bosh/Melo.
 
I think this is the reasoning that gets teams to punt on 4th and 1 from the opponent's 40 yard line, but as I've said, I don't think it was especially risky at the time, and the reward far outweighed the risk. Hard to really defend something being unlikely after it's happened however.

Not confused at all. They didn't have to put themselves in a position to need those six things to happen. Was self-inflicted.
 
And of course Houston could offer Parsons a three year max. You say on July 2, hey Chandler we're offering you a three year max. You can't sign til the tenth anyway so shut up about it and when he fill up our cap space, you officially sign it.

 

[bowiac]

Parsons would be nuts to wait. This is a guy who hasn't made a lot of money in his career to date - he's going to go off Morey's wink-wink assurance? If you had Mark Cuban offering you $45M guaranteed, and you had Morey telling you "don't worry about it, we'll take care of when we can do it without getting in trouble", you'd do it? Why?

 

[mcpickl]

Parsons would be nuts to wait. This is a guy who hasn't made a lot of money in his career to date - he's going to go off Morey's wink-wink assurance? If you had Mark Cuban offering you $45M guaranteed, and you had Morey telling you "don't worry about it, we'll take care of when we can do it without getting in trouble", you'd do it? Why?

Because I don't think Daryl Morey is a liar.
 
It's not like he'd be asking him to wait a month. Waiting a weekend doesn't seem ridiculous to me, especially when the end result is I get my money and another good player added to the roster with the cap space.

 

[bowiac]

Alright. I mean, I don't think he's a liar either, but I wouldn't risk it (or something else happening - ownership intervenes, word gets out to the league office, you and Morey had a misunderstanding, etc...). Doesn't seem remotely worth it to me from Parsons' point of view, so he can have the privilege of playing for a different Texas team.

 

[radsoxfan]

On the surface Ariza appears to be a very capable Parsons replacement. However there is history to suggest he *may* suffer from JPS (James Posey Syndrome) of conveniently having a big year when it financially benefits him only to stop caring afterward.

 
Yup. Big risk there.  Ariza of 2013-2014 seems like a reasonable replacement, potentially a slightly better fit. But Ariza is capable of some serious clunkers, we've seen it happen plenty of times (and so have the Rockets).
 
Plus, Ariza is already 29 while Parsons is 25.  I'd bet pretty heavily on Houston being better off with Parsons than Ariza next year. 
 
The trade value part of the story is interesting as well. Parsons on a 1 year contract at less than 1M I think has some pretty serious value.  Definitely worth a 1st round pick or two (Asik at 15M just netted them a 1st rounder, and Parsons is better) or a good player.  I think the Celtics would have traded Rondo for Parsons for example. 

 

[Blacken]

I think a lot of people are really underrating Parsons in this thread. I think Morey rolled the dice and got unlucky, and I think it was a good gamble, but damn did they lose a lot. Parsons for Rondo? I'd carry Rajon's bags to the airport myself.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

There's no formula though, and there are no guarantees. I would sign up for the Celtics having as good a next seven years as the Rockets though.

 
Yes, but you'd also trade the Rockets last 7 years for the Celtics last 7 years in a heartbeat.   So at some point the question becomes 'don't results matter, too?'   
 
That's not to hate on Morey, who I like, but just to note that this is not a case (like with Popovich or Belichick, for example) where it's really just a cut-and-dried, indisputable answer, either.

 

[radsoxfan]

I think a lot of people are really underrating Parsons in this thread. I think Morey rolled the dice and got unlucky, and I think it was a good gamble, but damn did they lose a lot. Parsons for Rondo? I'd carry Rajon's bags to the airport myself.

 
Parsons is a big prize, especially at that sub 1M contract. He's definitely worth a nice package of picks or a good player (or both), even on a 1 year deal.  I didn't mean to say the best they could do was Rondo, just that he is one of many good players they could have gotten for him.
 
The risk Morey took was not trivial. Whether or not the payoff was worth it is debatable, but the downside was very substantial (too big for my taste in this situation). Many executives and coaches in sports are too conservative (the 4th and 1 example Bowiac mentioned, bunting too often, etc), so often we are tempted to think the riskier or less "traditional" decision is probably the better strategic play.  But there are still times, as rare as they may be, that the uber-aggressive decision is simply overly reckless. 
 
I think Morey should have just picked up the option, gone after Bosh/Melo, and dealt with Parsons after 2014-2015 or traded him if need be. Instead he lost Parsons for nothing, didn't get his 3rd star, and is stuck with a questionable Parsons replacement on a long term deal.  Thats a pretty terrible worst case scenario that, while maybe not the most likely outcome, I think was quite plausible. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Because I don't think Daryl Morey is a liar.
 
It's not like he'd be asking him to wait a month. Waiting a weekend doesn't seem ridiculous to me, especially when the end result is I get my money and another good player added to the roster with the cap space.

Gordon Gund didn't think Carlos Boozer was either. There has to be a special level of trust to leave $45m on the table for no benefit to oneself. I can't put the blame on Parsons for doing what's best for him.....this is a big league business not some friends making fantasy trades.

 

[bowiac]

EDIT - nevermind. Almost fed the troll.

 

[jon abbey]

Gordon Gund didn't think Carlos Boozer was either. There has to be a special level of trust to leave $45m on the table for no benefit to oneself. I can't put the blame on Parsons for doing what's best for him.....this is a big league business not some friends making fantasy trades.

 
This was a different case from Boozer, since Parsons helped recruit Howard to HOU and they have the same agent, so Morey would have even less reason to renege on his deal than he would otherwise.