David Ortiz Extended!

[shoebox91]

The bigger picture of course is that the Sox expect to work a ton of low-cost players on to the team over the next two years.  In addition to still inexpensive X, JBJ, WMB, and Workman, they'll drop an expensive Peavy and replace him with a cheap young arm.  Add Cecchini.  Another young starter and a couple more arms into the BP.  Nap, Vic and Gomes ($35M) will be gone in 2 years. $10M worth of old catchers will be replaced by <$1M of young catchers. 
 
Having Papi around as a veteran leader for $11-16M will be  cost-effective in every sense and not the least bit restricting.  The team could extend Lester at $20M+ per and add another big, expensive bat and STILL have a lower payroll in 2016 than they do now.

This is exactly right. The deal makes a ton of sense in that it only keeps him past 2015 if he is still getting the PAs which he'll only get if he's putting up the numbers. If that's the case then I don't see how anyone can look at this as anything but a win for the team.
 
Having said that, it's also a huge win for the fans. I know we don't like to address that side a ton here, but it's part of it. If he gets into the HOF one day I want it to be that he's finished his career with the Sox. I know he would still go into the hall as one regardless but it means something as a fan. I want to be there for his last game at Fenway. I want to be there when 34 goes up with the other greats' numbers. I want that for my kids. I never wanted to have to explain to them why he would leave the Sox and now I won't have to. 

 

[CoRP]

What are you going to do when Grandma dies? I vote that you tell them she went to work at Disney World but family of employees are not allowed to go to the park. Kill two birds with one stone.

 

[TheoShmeo]

CoRP's line is funny, as usual.
 
That said, count me as one who thinks that the Sox will not be overly hampered by the Ortiz contract if he turns out to be a bust at any point during the term of this contract AND someone who is damned happy that Mr. Ortiz will never wear the uniform of the NY Storm Troopers or some other team outside of Boston.  
 
The Sox have shown a willingness to spend near the luxury tax cap and it's therefore hard to conceive of a $16 mm dead weight being a significant negative in fielding a competitive team in any one year.  And yeah, David Ortiz is one of those rare special players.  For me, there have been too many incredible Ortiz moments for the usual "I just root for the laundry" reaction to players leaving to apply.

 

[reggiecleveland]

After Ortiz tied rice last night for third on the Sox homer list I was wondering if he hada better chance of catching Yaz for 2nd or catching Ted on the all time list. My guess was they were about the same, and both are a long shot.
 
I found this interesting. Ortiz hit 58hr as a Twin. Ted had 521 hr and Yaz 452 a difference of 69. So if Ortiz can catch Yaz for 2nd all time on the red Sox he will be just  short of Ted's total. Do you think Ortiz has 70 or 79 more HR in the tank?

 

[smastroyin]

Ted had 521,so you have to add 9 more to your total.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

And MLB has changed the error from Darvish's game to a Hit for Ortiz

 

[DJnVa]

And MLB has changed the error from Darvish's game to a Hit for Ortiz

 
And fantasy owners scramble to see if it changes their outcome from last week!!!

 

[WenZink]

And MLB has changed the error from Darvish's game to a Hit for Ortiz

 
Some day, in the late innings of a no-hit game, a batter who's got a consecutive hit streak above 40 games, is going to knock a bloop that falls between a couple of fielders, is legitimately disputable, and, if he's not a complete homer, the official scorer's head is going to explode.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Some day, in the late innings of a no-hit game, a batter who's got a consecutive hit streak above 40 games, is going to knock a bloop that falls between a couple of fielders, is legitimately disputable, and, if he's not a complete homer, the official scorer's head is going to explode.

 
Official scorers are employed by the league, not the teams, so hopefully that's not a huge issue. I know in other sports, things like that are done by team/school employees.

 

[WenZink]

 
Official scorers are employed by the league, not the teams, so hopefully that's not a huge issue. I know in other sports, things like that are done by team/school employees.

 
It's not nearly as bad as it used to be, but scorers still reside in the region of the home team.  If it's close to a coin-flip you generally know how the scorer is going to rule.

 

[smastroyin]

Luckily the situation you describe is a clear hit.  Stephen Drew got credit for a hit on the ball that Wainright called off Molina and then didn't catch in Game 1 of the WS, for instance.
 
Probably you meant something that is actually questionable, like a grounder that gets bobbled.
 
Sorry, just striving for some precision and working off some Bruins fed tension.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Luckily the situation you describe is a clear hit.  Stephen Drew got credit for a hit on the ball that Wainright called off Molina and then didn't catch in Game 1 of the WS, for instance.
 
Probably you meant something that is actually questionable, like a grounder that gets bobbled.
 
Sorry, just striving for some precision and working off some Bruins fed tension.

 
It was a clear hit by the standards of every other scorer who has made a similar call in the last, I don't know, 50 years (the "no one touched it" standard).  But by the letter of the rule, which does not include anything about touching the ball, the scorer wasn't exactly wrong to rule Ortiz's pop-up an error. Nor would the scorer have been wrong to call Drew's hit an error in the World Series.  The question in calling it an error then becomes who do you assign the error to, since someone has to be credited for it?  Thus the "standard" has long since become to rule such plays hits, if only to simplify things.

 

[WenZink]

 
It was a clear hit by the standards of every other scorer who has made a similar call in the last, I don't know, 50 years (the "no one touched it" standard).  But by the letter of the rule, which does not include anything about touching the ball, the scorer wasn't exactly wrong to rule Ortiz's pop-up an error. Nor would the scorer have been wrong to call Drew's hit an error in the World Series.  The question in calling it an error then becomes who do you assign the error to, since someone has to be credited for it?  Thus the "standard" has long since become to rule such plays hits, if only to simplify things.

 
I think the only thing that is pertinent is that in the case of Ortiz' hit, the official scorer actually called the Elias Bureau to see if there was anyway he could call it an error.  If it had happened in Fenway, there's no call to Elias and just a simple F--- Yu.

 

[smastroyin]

The problem with the application of the "noone touched it" is the question of "ordinary effort" which we all can agree is a stupidly ridiculous and subjective standard.  Not that I want to get into the debate about how useful it is to distinguish errors from hits anyway.  Perhaps the Drew example is a poor one because it would have qualified for the infield fly rule had the situation merited, but typically the reason these are hard to call is that since no play is made on the ball, you can't really tell whether "ordinary effort" would have assured the out.  
 
So I guess I'm making the point that errors are stupid anyway.
 
In the situation that WenZink describes (a no-hitter vs. a long hit streak) I have no doubt that the Ortiz ball is called an immediate hit.  Maybe if it had happened after 21 outs had been recorded, it would be more of a question, even then, in this case, I think the call would be hit.  
 
Regardless, I would bet the house on this situation never coming up as each variable is a significantly rare occurance, so again, just wasting time waiting for this damn game 7.

 

[WenZink]

.....
 
In the situation that WenZink describes (a no-hitter vs. a long hit streak) I have no doubt that the Ortiz ball is called an immediate hit.  Maybe if it had happened after 21 outs had been recorded, it would be more of a question, even then, in this case, I think the call would be hit.  
 
Regardless, I would bet the house on this situation never coming up as each variable is a significantly rare occurance, so again, just wasting time waiting for this damn game 7.

 
Although I didn't mean my throw-away post to spark any kind of debate, let me engage in frivolity, while I, too, await the Bruins/Canadiens.
 
There are many other cases (besides the 40-game hit streak vs no-no) that could apply... a player's 3000th hit, Jeter's last at-bat, last weekend of the season with a hometown player in a race for the batting title, etc.  And in the event that it might occur, why does MLB still have official scorers at the game?  In light of centralized instant-replay, why not have centralized scoring?  Probably cheaper than hiring 15 scorers every night.  Or maybe just make the couch-potatoes in the Fan Cave do it.

 

[djhb20]

Well, the problem to me is that the ball fell in and the defensive players *were* giving ordinary effort. They didn't fail to catch it for lack of effort; it was for lack of effective communication.

 

[smastroyin]

Just for the record.  Since the beginning of the Cincinnati Series, David Ortiz's line is:
 
33 PA, 29 AB, 16 H, 5 HR, 3 2B, 552/606/1172.
 
That's almost as good as his World Series (668/760/1188 in 25 PA, in case you forgot).

 

[glennhoffmania]

And even some of his outs have been crushed, like the line drive in his last AB last night.  He's completely locked in right now.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Yeah, but did he ever learn to bunt or do all the little things? 
 
If only all our opponents could be the Twins.

 

[Mike F]

Yeah, but did he ever learn to bunt or do all the little things? 
 
If only all our opponents could be the Twins.

We get enough of the Twins @ Jet Blue.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

MAYOR'S CUP CHAMPS AGAIN!!!

 

[CoRP]

That's like the FA Cup, right?

 

[Reverend]

Just for the record.  Since the beginning of the Cincinnati Series, David Ortiz's line is:
 
33 PA, 29 AB, 16 H, 5 HR, 3 2B, 552/606/1172.
 
That's almost as good as his World Series (668/760/1188 in 25 PA, in case you forgot).

 

And even some of his outs have been crushed, like the line drive in his last AB last night.  He's completely locked in right now.

 
Hitting a home run while slipping, falling off balance and dropping one hand off the bat near the end of the swing is one of the more fucking terrifying feats of power hitting I think I've ever seen.

 

[Plympton91]

This is exactly right. The deal makes a ton of sense in that it only keeps him past 2015 if he is still getting the PAs which he'll only get if he's putting up the numbers. If that's the case then I don't see how anyone can look at this as anything but a win for the team.
 
Having said that, it's also a huge win for the fans. I know we don't like to address that side a ton here, but it's part of it. If he gets into the HOF one day I want it to be that he's finished his career with the Sox. I know he would still go into the hall as one regardless but it means something as a fan. I want to be there for his last game at Fenway. I want to be there when 34 goes up with the other greats' numbers. I want that for my kids. I never wanted to have to explain to them why he would leave the Sox and now I won't have to. 

 
I agree completely.  And, I hope that 6 or 7 years from now we're watching Lester make a run at the team record of 192 wins held by Clemens and Cy Young.  With 3 championships in 10 years, I'm happy to keep the guys who won those series and let ty hem climb the ladder of club history even if it means some down years near the end of this decade.  But, given the influx of young talent coming, I don't see why it would.  If the 2016-2017 lineup has Owens, one of Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes in the rotation, and another in the bullpen with Workman and Britton, plus Vazquez/Swihart, Betts, Cecchini, Bradley, Marrerro/Middlebrooks, and Bogaerts.   They have plenty of payroll space to cover for a few overpaid heroes at the end of their careers.
 
And at any rate bringing this back to the main subject of resigning David Ortiz, Papi is making them look brilliant to have locked him up for so little money -- again.  The guy is a beast and proving to be one of the best hitters of the steroid-testing era, even in his late-30s.  If he puts up numbers this year similar to the past two, I don't see how anyone can keep him out of the Hall of Fame, maybe not a first ballot because of the DH nonsense, but certainly by the second or third ballot. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
With 3 championships in 10 years, I'm happy to keep the guys who won those series and let ty hem climb the ladder of club history even if it means some down years near the end of this decade. 

 
Wait, what?  So you're ok with "punted years" but only if it's due to resigning older, more expensive players, but you're not ok with "punted years" if the purpose is to get younger, minimum salary players opportunities to play and improve?

 

[Plympton91]

 
Wait, what?  So you're ok with "punted years" but only if it's due to resigning older, more expensive players, but you're not ok with "punted years" if the purpose is to get younger, minimum salary players opportunities to play and improve?

 
This is not an either/or question.  As both 2007 and 2013 proved.

 

[glennhoffmania]

It's actually a pretty simple question, the purpose of which was to try to understand how you reconcile your various views on the team.

 

[Plympton91]

It's actually a pretty simple question, the purpose of which was to try to understand how you reconcile your various views on the team.

 
I don't know whether to be flattered or frightened that you care so much.  It's called a discount factor.  I prefer that approach for the same reason I prefer to have a $1 given to me today, rather than the promise of getting a $1 several years from now.   Then you throw in uncertainty, in that going for a "bridge year" intentionally downgrades the team in the near term, while the extent to which superstars decline over time is probabilistic. 

 

[joe dokes]

 
I don't know whether to be flattered or frightened that you care so much.  It's called a discount factor.  I prefer that approach for the same reason I prefer to have a $1 given to me today, rather than the promise of getting a $1 several years from now.   Then you throw in uncertainty, in that going for a "bridge year" intentionally downgrades the team in the near term, while the extent to which superstars decline over time is probabilistic. 

 
Your analysis begs the question of whether the team is actually downgraded this year, or whether it was done "intentionally." 

 

[Plympton91]

 
Your analysis begs the question of whether the team is actually downgraded this year, or whether it was done "intentionally." 

 
Let's not go down that road again in yet another thread.  They aren't going to be getting worse anytime soon as a result of having given David Ortiz a contract extension.  We'll leave it at that.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
 
Hitting a home run while slipping, falling off balance and dropping one hand off the bat near the end of the swing is one of the more fucking terrifying feats of power hitting I think I've ever seen.

 
How about hitting a home run with a broken wrist?
 

Ortiz suffered the injury while diving into home plate in the fourth inning of the Twins’ game against the Royals on May 4, 2001. He proceeded to homer in the fifth inning — broken right wrist and all — after informing his coaches that he was OK.

Link

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Just in case you weren't paying attention, David Ortiz is leading baseball in RBI's and is only 3 off of the pace in HR's.
 
14th in SLG, 19th in OPS.
 
Seems like a decent deal to me. So far.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Just in case you weren't paying attention, David Ortiz is leading baseball in RBI's and is only 3 off of the pace in HR's.
 
14th in SLG, 19th in OPS.
 
Seems like a decent deal to me. So far.

I'd figure everyone here would pounce on the usage of RBI's, but this year it seems like he's done most of the run producing by himself... I don't have time to look this up, but I'd imagine the OBP of the players batting in front of him this season is significantly reduced compared to previous seasons.  

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Just a heads up that the documentary "David Ortiz in the Moment" is on right now on Epix2 (FIOS 896 HD) and will air again today at 3pm EST.    I don't have time to watch it now, but will record it for the cold winter ahead. 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKh1u3B9HU4

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

I'd figure everyone here would pounce on the usage of RBI's, but this year it seems like he's done most of the run producing by himself... I don't have time to look this up, but I'd imagine the OBP of the players batting in front of him this season is significantly reduced compared to previous seasons.  

 
He's ranked 15th in MLB in runners on base when he's at bat with 336, or 44 behind leader Ryan Howard.  There are 2 Marlins, 2 Orioles and 3 Phillies ahead of him.  He's 8th in Runners on 1st, 28th in Runners on 2nd and 32nd in Runners on 3rd.  I would suggest he's received about an average amount of opportunities for a top hitter in an MLB lineup.
 
Year / Ortiz Rank in Runners on Base
2013 / 13th
2012 / outside 150
2011 / 11th
2010 / 17th
2009 / 18th
2008 / 118th
2007 / 22nd
2006 / 9th (led league in RBI)
2005 / 4th (led league in RBI)
2004 / 11th
 
Before then he didn't play enough for me to check the leaderboards.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

There are five guys in baseball history who have logged an OPS+ over 150 in at least 2000 PA from age 35 on.
 
Their names are Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, and David Ortiz.
 
Just sayin'.

 

[Tharkin]

If one's name is going to be associated with a group of hitters, I guess you could do worse than those guys.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

If the HOF isn't a lock at this point for Ortiz they should shutter the place.

 

[Montana Fan]

If the HOF isn't a lock at this point for Ortiz they should shutter the place.

Caught a little of the game on XM last night and Sterling basically said the same thing. He said that after watching DO 19 games a season for a decade plus, he is a no brainer HoF'er. Hopefully voters who haven't seen him that often will also agree. Suzyn was noticeably silent.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Caught a little of the game on XM last night and Sterling basically said the same thing. He said that after watching DO 19 games a season for a decade plus, he is a no brainer HoF'er. Hopefully voters who haven't seen him that often will also agree. Suzyn was noticeably silent.

I hate Sterling with the heat of a thousand suns, but I have to admit that, unlike most of the MFY mouth-breathers, he's typically very gracious and open-minded when it comes to the talent and accomplishments of Red Sox players and management.
 
Always respectful of Ortiz.  Would acknowledge the difficulty in distinguishing who's better between Cano and Pedroia.  Frequently opined on how much he liked and appreciated Terry Francona during his tenure as Sox manager.  A little ahead of the curve (as MFY media goes) in acknowledging Lester as an ace.
 
Damnit, Montana, now look what you made me do...

 

[SMU_Sox]

Sometimes the simple stats tell a lot. Ortiz has 32 HRs and 55 Runs. He's only been batted in 23 times. He's batted himself in more than his teammates have by a considerable margin. I wonder what the record is for that difference.
As for the hall? I'm in the minority, I suppose, but I think both Edgar Martinez and Ortiz are deserving and it's disturbing to me, from both a fairness point of view and as a barometer for Papi's chances, that Martinez only got 25% of the votes this past year. As a reminder Martinez has a career wrc+ of 147! and had an f-war, fwiw, of 65.6. He didn't have any crazy seasons, 7.0 was his highest, but he did play 9 seasons at 5.0+ f-war and a few that were close to it. That's damn good. Ortiz? Career wrc+ of 138, amd a 43.0 f-war. His peak was a 6.2 in 2007 and he's had 3 5+ f-war seasons. Like I said, I think they both need to be there. Martinez doesn't have Papi's hype which is sad because Edgar Martinez was one of the games best offensive players of all time (33rd highest career wrc+. And, yes, I think 33rd over the course of over one hundred years qualifies as one of the best). I hope Papi's 3 rings and more HRs help his candidacy (463 and counting to 309) even if the latter annoys me.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Sometimes the simple stats tell a lot. Ortiz has 32 HRs and 55 Runs. He's only been batted in 23 times. He's batted himself in more than his teammates have by a considerable margin. I wonder what the record is for that difference.
As for the hall? I'm in the minority, I suppose, but I think both Edgar Martinez and Ortiz are deserving and it's disturbing to me, from both a fairness point of view and as a barometer for Papi's chances, that Martinez only got 25% of the votes this past year. As a reminder Martinez has a career wrc+ of 147! and had an f-war, fwiw, of 65.6. He didn't have any crazy seasons, 7.0 was his highest, but he did play 9 seasons at 5.0+ f-war and a few that were close to it. That's damn good. Ortiz? Career wrc+ of 138, amd a 43.0 f-war. His peak was a 6.2 in 2007 and he's had 3 5+ f-war seasons. Like I said, I think they both need to be there. Martinez doesn't have Papi's hype which is sad because Edgar Martinez was one of the games best offensive players of all time (33rd highest career wrc+. And, yes, I think 33rd over the course of over one hundred years qualifies as one of the best). I hope Papi's 3 rings and more HRs help his candidacy (463 and counting to 309) even if the latter annoys me.

 
I think it's Mark McGwire, 1997.  58 HR, 86 R, knocked himself in 30 more times than by teammates.  Ortiz is tied for 14th with 4 other players, including Ted Williams in 1953.

1. McGwire, 1997, 28
2. Bonds, 2001, 17
3. Tony Clark, 2005, 13
4. McGwire, 1999, 12
5. Sosa, 1999, 12
6. Howard, 2006, 12
7. Matt Williams, 1994, 12
8. Killebrew, 1962, 11
9. McGwire, 1998, 10
10. McGwire, 2001, 10
11. Joe Adcock, 1962, 10
12. Steve Balboni, 1990, 10
13. Johnny Blanchard, 1963, 10

Used this Play Index and applied math.  The report does not appear to have last night's results yet.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Sometimes the simple stats tell a lot. Ortiz has 32 HRs and 55 Runs. He's only been batted in 23 times. He's batted himself in more than his teammates have by a considerable margin. I wonder what the record is for that difference.
As for the hall? I'm in the minority, I suppose, but I think both Edgar Martinez and Ortiz are deserving and it's disturbing to me, from both a fairness point of view and as a barometer for Papi's chances, that Martinez only got 25% of the votes this past year. As a reminder Martinez has a career wrc+ of 147! and had an f-war, fwiw, of 65.6. He didn't have any crazy seasons, 7.0 was his highest, but he did play 9 seasons at 5.0+ f-war and a few that were close to it. That's damn good. Ortiz? Career wrc+ of 138, amd a 43.0 f-war. His peak was a 6.2 in 2007 and he's had 3 5+ f-war seasons. Like I said, I think they both need to be there. Martinez doesn't have Papi's hype which is sad because Edgar Martinez was one of the games best offensive players of all time (33rd highest career wrc+. And, yes, I think 33rd over the course of over one hundred years qualifies as one of the best). I hope Papi's 3 rings and more HRs help his candidacy (463 and counting to 309) even if the latter annoys me.

David has played in the NY/Boston spotlight for the majority of his career.

Edgar's games started at 10:05pm, when most decent people have gone to bed.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

David has played in the NY/Boston spotlight for the majority of his career.

Edgar's games started at 10:05pm, when most decent people have gone to bed.

Not only that, but Ortiz's hits have come at the right time whether it's in the playoffs or walk-offs. There was a long period there where it seemed strange when Ortiz didn't win the game single-handedly in the 9th. That reputation goes a long way. Not to mention the narrative surrounding the Red Sox finally winning it all while he was at his peak. Like it or not, being perceived as clutch or rising to the occasion or whatever is an essential aspect of national perception. (And of course doing all that while people are watching...)