#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[Shelterdog]

You may be right. I checked the NFL Constitution and Bylaws in search of owners' arbitration rights, and surprisingly to me found none. This is in contrast to the NBA's, which became relevant when the Sterling situation broke.

If Kraft can do nothing but sue in court in the event the Pats get screwed, that maybe changes things considerably. Kraft clearly would be reluctant to do that.

Lesson -- never assume.

 
It might be in another document (for example, I believe that individual owner's enter into owner's agreements with the league)--the Cowboys and Redskins entered into arbitration with the league (and lost) over the penalties they received for cap violations a few years ago.

 

[dcmissle]

 
It might be in another document (for example, I believe that individual owner's enter into owner's agreements with the league)--the Cowboys and Redskins entered into arbitration with the league (and lost) over the penalties they received for cap violations a few years ago.

You are correct:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82901f84/article/dallas-cowboys-washington-redskins-see-arbitrator-in-cap-case

Those teams didn't prevail, but at least they had a hearing.

 

[DJnVa]

Some of you guys are scared of your own shadow.

 

[Leather]

Some of you guys are scared of your own shadow.

 
Well you would be too if your shadow was named Aaron Hernandez.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I don't think it's about fear, DD.  I think it's an assessment of a commissioner who will moved by the following factors:
 
- The reaction of MANY people, those who hate the Patriots and those who are even-keeled, is that there is simply no way to explain how the Pats balls were underinflated and the Colts were not other than based on some kind of foul play.  I have heard this refrain from truly objective fans and people who are not even sports fans.  Goodell has heard it too and I think it will resonate with him.
 
- The Patriots have been caught before.  SPYGATE brothers and sisters.
 
- The Pats have various other allegations made about them and there is a perception that they are always on the edge or over the line.  Perception.
 
- There is a general bias throughout the league, the media and NFL fans against the Pats.  Whether it's jealousy, BB's penchant for making people look like clowns and being uncooperative or something else, the Pats are not loved.
 
- Kraft laid down the gauntlet and told Goodell that he needs to apologize if there isn't a smoking gun.  That speech, and the death stare at the podium, were quite pleasurable going down the hatch for Pats fans, but I could see those moves pushing Goodell into a corner.  Insecure, douchey men like him could have the opposite reaction.  "Smoking gun?  I don't need no smoking gun, and don't tell me when I need to apologize.  I will determine the level of proof I need, not you."  That is intended as an inner thought and not something he would say in so many words.
 
- There is a sense out there in the big, irrational world that the Pats did something wrong and need to be punished.
 
Make no mistake, I think this way of thinking is a big, stinking pile of shit.  I think Goodell is a chump if he actually punishes the Pats without real hard evidence in the Wells Report to justify it.  I think assessing any penalty given the keystone cops nature of the Refs, Kensil's presence, the fact that this story would have blown over quickly if any other team was involved, the possible sting element with Grigson having alerted the league, the presumed lack of any hard evidence, the atmospheric explanations and many other factors that have been mentioned in this thread is utterly deplorable.
 
I just don't think Goodell has it in him NOT to punish the Pats in light of the points made above.  As is always the case when forecasting a bad result, I hope I am dead wrong.
 
PS: The notion of quitting the NFL over this is laughable in my view.  If I was going to quit the NFL, it would be because the game often turns my favorite players' brains into mush.  Does anyone think that Wes Welker is going to have a pretty future?  I hope he does but I'd be shocked if he didn't resemble a lot of the other pathetic messes we've seen in the various documentaries and reports.  THAT should make me think twice and give me pause.  But it doesn't really, because like most NFL fans, I just love watching the game and can't look away (especially when the Pats are still a freaking dynasty and Brady and Belichick are around).  An unjust penalty handed down by a fool at the top of the heap doesn't remotely touch the importance of the concussion impacts issue for me.  
   
 

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

I believe the above is irrational.  There are plenty in the league and media that have hatred or jealousy of the Pats.  There has been nothing in this episode from Goodell to indicate a vendetta against the Pats, if anything the opposite (by hiring Wells).  You can point to the early leaks, but those were probably coming from Irsay or Kensil...everyone agrees Goodell''s incompetent spygate handling and subsequent punishment set the stage for much of the hatred / jealousy that exists today, however, his statements and actions on deflategate do not support the feelings of paranoia.  The leaks essentially stopped upon the hiring of Wells, and Goodell's only direct statement on the Patriots on this matter was something to the effect of "we don't even know if there was any wrongdoing".  I fully expect Wells to find the officials (whether it be the refs or Kensil himself) to be at fault) and for Irsay / Grigson to be slapped on the wrist for the leaks.  
(Of course I fully expect the Pats to win the SB every year, so I always expect the best). 

 

[Nick Kaufman]

One thing that impresses me is the amount of sanctimony -ostensibly about the integrity of the game- but really about trivial things. Not just about the Pats balls, but even let's say the Falcons pumping crowd noise. Like really, even if they did it, I am not aware of any evidence that crowd noise is a contributing factor to home advantage. From what I read, no matter the size or the passion of the crowd, home advantage is created by refs giving more calls to the home side.
 
Meanwhile, on soccer leagues I follow around the world, you ve got real problems with the integrity of the game. Like some months ago, a ref was told to make sure a certain team doesn't lose and when he didn't, he had his bakery burnt down. Or having UEFA officials monitoring asian betting shops for funky movements in bets. Apparently, there are teams being suspected for arranging  who and in what order is going to score goals so that they can win money off betting. There's also a great deal of soccer players who aren't getting paid enough and thus being susceptible to being bribed. Same with lower profile tennis players who lose in order to win certain punters money.
 
You know, these are REAL problems with the integrity of the game. Not crowd noise and deflated balls for which other than old wives' tales no one has any proof that they actually make a difference.
 
I d say that the NFL has it pretty good if this the sort of problems its commissioner has to deal with, but then again, the real problem with the NFL is that in all probability the sport destroys the participants' health. But then I guess it's not as easy to get high and mighty when we all carry a certain degree of culpability as it is when it comes to utterly trivial things.

 

[bankshot1]

Goodell's bread is bought by the NFL owners, not the fans.
 
If he punishes the Pats absent compelling evidence of wrong doing found by the "independent" Wells investigation, I believe Kraft will seek a remedy. He's already gone all in on this, and IMO absent that evidence his reputation and his organization's reputation is at stake, and he will fight for it.
 
So what's a few million dollars to a multi-billionaire to run his own independent investigation of Deflategate and the inept nature of  the Commissioner's office that runs a $10 billion business that wants to double in size.
 
It only takes 10 votes to kill an election for the Commisioner, and we know the Kraft's have influence among some other influential owners. the Maras, Tischs, Rooneys, Jones and others. If these owners find the Deflategate ruling based on taking down the Kraft and the Pats rather than on real wrong doing, it should not be beyond the realm of possibility that they could see the danger of having a vindictive small-dicked guy running the shop.
 
Support for Goodell could evaporate faster than a air pressure in a football on a cold night..
 
I hold out hope that the facts, reason and self preservation guide Goodell.

 

[nighthob]

Even if we concede that Kraft is the most powerful owner in football, and a quasi "assistant commissioner", he's still only one owner, and the league is probably better off, frankly, if one owner doesn't wield as much power as you and some others seem to think he has. 
 
In other words, Goodell may indeed "fear" Kraft (although I doubt the relationship, even now, is as strained as others seem to believe), but he also has every other owner and the fanbases of the rest of the football world encouraging him to put Kraft in his place.   
 
If the roles were reversed, and Jim Irsay was the dick-swinging "most powerful owner in the NFL", everyone here would probably agree that he needed to be taken down a peg.   Well, here's Goodell's chance.   
 
And nobody's suing the NFL.  First of all, I'd wager there's an arbitration requirement for disputes over this sort of thing, and second of all (and more importantly), going nuclear and dragging the NFL through a 2-year litigation process over...what?  Belichick being suspended for a few games?  A 3rd round draft pick?  Would just be bad for business.

During the last attempted palace coup Kraft was one of the guys that kept Carrot Top on the job. If he decides to punish the Patriots for not breaking the rules, opening a gigantic can of legalese worms that are going to make the NFL as fun to watch as Judge Judy, then come next palace coup, and there will be one, Ginger is dead. And don't think he doesn't know that.

 

[joe dokes]

I believe the above is irrational.  There are plenty in the league and media that have hatred or jealousy of the Pats.  There has been nothing in this episode from Goodell to indicate a vendetta against the Pats, if anything the opposite (by hiring Wells).  You can point to the early leaks, but those were probably coming from Irsay or Kensil...everyone agrees Goodell''s incompetent spygate handling and subsequent punishment set the stage for much of the hatred / jealousy that exists today, however, his statements and actions on deflategate do not support the feelings of paranoia.  The leaks essentially stopped upon the hiring of Wells, and Goodell's only direct statement on the Patriots on this matter was something to the effect of "we don't even know if there was any wrongdoing".  I fully expect Wells to find the officials (whether it be the refs or Kensil himself) to be at fault) and for Irsay / Grigson to be slapped on the wrist for the leaks.  
(Of course I fully expect the Pats to win the SB every year, so I always expect the best). 

 
I think this missses a point.
I dont think you need to have any antiPats bias or jealousy in the mix to end up with Goodell imposing some sort of punishment here. The balls were deflated.  That's all he (in his mind) needs. Assuming no evidence of "actual wrongdoing" by the Patriots or of Kensil sucking the air out of the balls, Goodell will be criticised more if he does nothing than if he issues a meager penalty. That's what motivates him. "Patriots failed to prove they weren't responsible for deflation."  Goodell has demosntrated several times his (at best) ham-handedness in this arena and his creation of the *appearance* of things, rather than the things themselves; why should this time be different?
 
I will be shocked if the outcome isn't the loss of a 7th round pick or somesuch.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It's not really hard to understand why we're worried. The commissioner is a stupid capricious asshole looking to swing the hammer for any reason he can find. There's no reasoning or logic at work here. He just wants to bring the pain, facts of the case be damned.

 

[Hoya81]

Goodell's bread is bought by the NFL owners, not the fans.
 
If he punishes the Pats absent compelling evidence of wrong doing found by the "independent" Wells investigation, I believe Kraft will seek a remedy. He's already gone all in on this, and IMO absent that evidence his reputation and his organization's reputation is at stake, and he will fight for it.
 
So what's a few million dollars to a multi-billionaire to run his own independent investigation of Deflategate and the inept nature of  the Commissioner's office that runs a $10 billion business that wants to double in size.
 
It only takes 10 votes to kill an election for the Commisioner, and we know the Kraft's have influence among some other influential owners. the Maras, Tischs, Rooneys, Jones and others. If these owners find the Deflategate ruling based on taking down the Kraft and the Pats rather than on real wrong doing, it should not be beyond the realm of possibility that they could see the danger of having a vindictive small-dicked guy running the shop.
 
Support for Goodell could evaporate faster than a air pressure in a football on a cold night..
 
I hold out hope that the facts, reason and self preservation guide Goodell.

I was of the opinion that Kraft needed to declare war on the league if the Pats get railroaded here, but I don't think he will. He has a lot of non-football business interests that are assisted by his good relations with the NFL and the networks, and in the long run, I don't think he'd jeopardize them.

 

[bankshot1]

It's not really hard to understand why we're worried. The commissioner is a stupid capricious asshole looking to swing the hammer for any reason he can find. There's no reasoning or logic at work here. He just wants to bring the pain, facts of the case be damned.

 
I'd like to think that Ted Wells is probably not a stupid capricious asshole, and if the evidence of Pats tampering is not there, he will advice the stupid capricious asshole it would be in his best interest and the leagues best interest to save the hammer and dick swinging for another day.

 

[ifmanis5]

Wait, so it isn't a league of rules?

Peter 'The Sacred By-Laws' King disagrees.

 

[lexrageorge]

I would say there's as much of a chance of Goodell using the Wells report to conclude that there's no grounds for punishment, but that steps will be taken in the future to prevent any similar issues.  Maybe I'm just optimistic and/or naive, but I don't see what Goodell gains by imposing a severe punishment if the investigation is unable to come up with any evidence of wrongdoing (which seems more and more likely each passing day).  
 
If Goodell is stupid enough to impose a suspension and/or loss of high draft picks despite there being zero evidence of any wrongdoing, I do see Kraft taking the nuclear option.  He's made it clear how he feels, and I don't see him just taking it lying down, regardless of what's written in the bylaws.  Kraft does have some leverage, and he will use it if necessary. 
 
The 3rd scenario is a token fine and/or loss of 6th or 7th round draft pick.  It would be stupid and unjustified based on what little we know today, but I would not be surprised (or particularly distraught) with this outcome either.

 

[nighthob]

I was of the opinion that Kraft needed to declare war on the league if the Pats get railroaded here, but I don't think he will. He has a lot of non-football business interests that are assisted by his good relations with the NFL and the networks, and in the long run, I don't think he'd jeopardize them.

The same is true of Goodell, though. And if he completely burns his bridges he's a dead man walking. His relationship with Kraft is strained, but the Wells report more or less allows him to hold out an olive branch. Especially if it addresses the problems created by league personnel in all this. Because then he gets to throw a couple of league office guys under the bus for mishandling matters and leaking to the press, and then making the whole story go away.

 

[ifmanis5]

It's not really hard to understand why we're worried. The commissioner is a stupid capricious asshole looking to swing the hammer for any reason he can find. There's no reasoning or logic at work here. He just wants to bring the pain, facts of the case be damned.

Exactly this. Ivan IV of Russia is your King, and you are all screwed.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
I'd like to think that Ted Wells is probably not a stupid capricious asshole, and if the evidence of Pats tampering is not there, he will advice the stupid capricious asshole it would be in his best interest and the leagues best interest to save the hammer and dick swinging for another day.

 
And then it's very possible and even likely that the stupid capricious asshole will read the Wells report, comprehend 1 word in 4, and then punish the Pats anyway.

 

[bankshot1]

 
And then it's very possible and even likely that the stupid capricious asshole will read the Wells report, comprehend 1 word in 4, and then punish the Pats anyway.

 
 

He could, but i think that the risks to his $40 million annuity increases significantly with a capricious fact-free finding of guilt on the Pats. I don't think Goodell is that stupid.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
 
 

He could, but i think that the risks to his $40 million annuity increases significantly with a capricious fact-free finding of guilt on the Pats. I don't think Goodell is that stupid.

 

 

 

[nighthob]

He could, but i think that the risks to his $40 million annuity increases significantly with a capricious fact-free finding of guilt on the Pats. I don't think Goodell is that stupid.

To be brutally frank it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the entire reason for Wellsing the the thing in the first place was so that he didn't need to do anything and that he's been eagerly anticipating the final report as a means of wriggling off the hook.

 

[bankshot1]

To be brutally frank it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the entire reason for Wellsing the the thing in the first place was so that he didn't need to do anything and that he's been eagerly anticipating the final report as a means of wriggling off the hook.

 
I agree, if the report finds no wrong-doing it will be easy to exonerate the Pats.
 
But I've wondered if what seems like a very long time to explore and investigate the deflation issue, indicates that other related issues (Colts, Ravens, Kensil) were also looked into, and that other issues were found to be more substantive than the deflation issue, and if so how to handle them. Probably a pipe-dream. 

 

[nighthob]

I've assumed since that pre-Superbowl press conference, when the head of officials essentially exonerated them, that the ultimate end of all this was that someone in the league office was going to get tossed under the bus. And probably Kensil given the large, inept, and improper role he's played in all this.

 

[dcmissle]

It's not really hard to understand why we're worried. The commissioner is a stupid capricious asshole looking to swing the hammer for any reason he can find. There's no reasoning or logic at work here. He just wants to bring the pain, facts of the case be damned.

There is a lot to this. Stern could be an a-hole, but there was rhyme and reason to what he was doing and you could usually anticipate it. Capricious is the word here.

 

[tims4wins]

There is a lot to this. Stern could be an a-hole, but there was rhyme and reason to what he was doing and you could usually anticipate it. Capricious is the word here.

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SruXEtYj4_8

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

To be brutally frank it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the entire reason for Wellsing the the thing in the first place was so that he didn't need to do anything and that he's been eagerly anticipating the final report as a means of wriggling off the hook.

 
I agree with the sentiment that Goodell doesn't want to be in this position and would have strongly preferred that the whole fiasco never occurred.  However, I think the basic problem is that exonerating the Patriots doesn't let him off the hook.  Instead, its going to create a shitstorm of angry people in the media and around the league.  Those people have never been interested in the facts, just the verdict, and so they are unlikely to give a shit what the Wells Report actually says or to react positively to a judgement based on those facts.
 
Goodell has been placed in a position where the most self-preserving action is likely to be some kind of faux Solomonic compromise involving minor punishment, not a complete exoneration of the Patriots.  Kraft has tried to head off that possibility by saying that he wants an apology if there is no smoking gun.  At the end of the day, however, Goodell is caught between multiple masters and angling for some kind of middle ground is the clear weasel's way out.  So don't be surprised if he takes it.

 

[Otis Foster]

 
I'd like to think that Ted Wells is probably not a stupid capricious asshole, and if the evidence of Pats tampering is not there, he will advice the stupid capricious asshole it would be in his best interest and the leagues best interest to save the hammer and dick swinging for another day.

 
 
You're correct. He isn't.

 

[snowmanny]

I don't think it's about fear, DD.  I think it's an assessment of a commissioner who will moved by the following factors:
 
- The reaction of MANY people, those who hate the Patriots and those who are even-keeled, is that there is simply no way to explain how the Pats balls were underinflated and the Colts were not other than based on some kind of foul play.  I have heard this refrain from truly objective fans and people who are not even sports fans.  Goodell has heard it too and I think it will resonate with him.
 
- The Patriots have been caught before.  SPYGATE brothers and sisters.
 
- The Pats have various other allegations made about them and there is a perception that they are always on the edge or over the line.  Perception.
 
- There is a general bias throughout the league, the media and NFL fans against the Pats.  Whether it's jealousy, BB's penchant for making people look like clowns and being uncooperative or something else, the Pats are not loved.
 
- Kraft laid down the gauntlet and told Goodell that he needs to apologize if there isn't a smoking gun.  That speech, and the death stare at the podium, were quite pleasurable going down the hatch for Pats fans, but I could see those moves pushing Goodell into a corner.  Insecure, douchey men like him could have the opposite reaction.  "Smoking gun?  I don't need no smoking gun, and don't tell me when I need to apologize.  I will determine the level of proof I need, not you."  That is intended as an inner thought and not something he would say in so many words.
 
- There is a sense out there in the big, irrational world that the Pats did something wrong and need to be punished.
 
Make no mistake, I think this way of thinking is a big, stinking pile of shit.  I think Goodell is a chump if he actually punishes the Pats without real hard evidence in the Wells Report to justify it.  I think assessing any penalty given the keystone cops nature of the Refs, Kensil's presence, the fact that this story would have blown over quickly if any other team was involved, the possible sting element with Grigson having alerted the league, the presumed lack of any hard evidence, the atmospheric explanations and many other factors that have been mentioned in this thread is utterly deplorable.
 
I just don't think Goodell has it in him NOT to punish the Pats in light of the points made above.  As is always the case when forecasting a bad result, I hope I am dead wrong.
 
PS: The notion of quitting the NFL over this is laughable in my view.  If I was going to quit the NFL, it would be because the game often turns my favorite players' brains into mush.  Does anyone think that Wes Welker is going to have a pretty future?  I hope he does but I'd be shocked if he didn't resemble a lot of the other pathetic messes we've seen in the various documentaries and reports.  THAT should make me think twice and give me pause.  But it doesn't really, because like most NFL fans, I just love watching the game and can't look away (especially when the Pats are still a freaking dynasty and Brady and Belichick are around).  An unjust penalty handed down by a fool at the top of the heap doesn't remotely touch the importance of the concussion impacts issue for me.  
   
 

You may turn out to be right, but basically you are saying that Goodell is going to punish the Patriots because the air pressure in the Patriots balls (probably unreliably) measured on the sidelines was lower than the air pressure of the Colts balls (probably unreliably) measured indoors. Now there might be some other evidence we do not know about, including evidence from other games or from former players/coaches. But you are saying that even without anything else besides the simple (presumably unreliably) measured air pressures he is likely to punish the Patriots.  He might want to act like the strong enforcer but doing so without any justification beyond those meaningless data points is very risky.
 
I mean, the media resents the Patriots for being arrogant and resents the NFL for being reactive and stupid.  I wouldn't be too confident the media is going to give a pass on reactive and stupid just because it's directed at the Patriots.  Also, there is one other thing that happened since the deflategate broke: the Patriots won the friggin' Super Bowl.  A lot of fans and media members are front-runners and the tide may have turned a little. Punishing your champions for cheating may also something that even the NFL does not particularly want to do unless absolutely forced to do so by the evidence.

 

[Leather]

 
 
You're correct. He isn't.

Or: the report will be completed by Wells and counsel for the NFL, who will thank Wells for his job well done. Then counsel for the NFL will take the report to Goodell, and the two of them will consult with the heads of PR, Marketing, and Ad Sales, and decide what to do.

 

[E5 Yaz]

This has been about one thing and one thing only from the start ... perception
 
Outside of the Patriots fanbase, New England has been found guilty in the court of opinion. No ruling that clears the Pats of wrongdoing is going to be taken seriously; nor will it change peoples' minds. 
 
The only outcome that could change perception is one that finds that the wishcasting conspiracy actually existed. And even then, there will be those who say the NFL manufactured a way not to punish the Patriots.

 

[Ed Hillel]

This has been about one thing and one thing only from the start ... perception
 
Outside of the Patriots fanbase, New England has been found guilty in the court of opinion. No ruling that clears the Pats of wrongdoing is going to be taken seriously; nor will it change peoples' minds. 
 
The only outcome that could change perception is one that finds that the wishcasting conspiracy actually existed. And even then, there will be those who say the NFL manufactured a way not to punish the Patriots.

 
Perception is low down on the totem pole for me. I'm more concerned with whether or not the team is punished and put at a disadvantage, and whether the level of evidence is in line with that punishment. Given that Atlanta was just docked a 5th rounder for a repeated offense that impacted play on the field and took place over 2 full seasons, I'd expect any punishment for the Pats, absent a smoking gun, to be significantly lighter.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Perception is low down on the totem pole for me. I'm more concerned with whether or not the team is punished and put at a disadvantage, and whether the level of evidence is in line with that punishment. Given that Atlanta was just docked a 5th rounder for a repeated offense that impacted play on the field and took place over 2 full seasons, I'd expect any punishment for the Pats, absent a smoking gun, to be significantly lighter.

 
It doesn't matter where it is for you. Perception is how the punishment will be determined by Carrot Top

 

[BigJimEd]

I really hope the NFL announces something soon.

I am really tired of reading the same arguments over and over for the 100th time. Yet for some reason I still open the thread when I see a new post.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
It doesn't matter where it is for you. Perception is how the punishment will be determined by Carrot Top

 
We'll see, but I doubt it. I fully expect the punishment, if any, to be in line with the Wells report. If Goodell's decisions were always made with the public's perception in mind he wouldn't be so unpopular. Nobody's boycotting over this decision, either. In the grand scheme of society, it's not a serious issue, despite the absurd news coverage it received.  
 
Freeman's tweet seems to have brought us back full circle to the thing we've been debating since the beginning. None of us know what Goodell is thinking. Nor do we know the facts, outside of a strong indication that there's no smoking gun.

 

[ifmanis5]

Outside of the Patriots fanbase, New England has been found guilty in the court of opinion. No ruling that clears the Pats of wrongdoing is going to be taken seriously; nor will it change peoples' minds. 

Agreed with all that. This "case" was decided long ago.

 

[Otis Foster]

Agreed with all that. This "case" was decided long ago.

 
We can sit weeping softly in the corner while clutching the SB trophies to our tear soaked chests.

 

[joe dokes]

 
We'll see, but I doubt it. I fully expect the punishment, if any, to be in line with the Wells report. If Goodell's decisions were always made with the public's perception in mind he wouldn't be so unpopular. Nobody's boycotting over this decision, either. In the grand scheme of society, it's not a serious issue, despite the absurd news coverage it received.  
 
 

 
No one said he was actually good at gauging public perception
 
He was something of an empty vessel until Rice clocked his fiancee. He's unpopular because his instinct, as reflected in his initial decision on Rice, was seen as poor.  And with the stench of that still on him, there were the other cases that piled up, all of which stuck to him.   Suspending Rice & Peterson indefinitely was *very* popular, but ultimately unallowable.  After the shit he took for giving Rice 2 games, he is now concerned with the popular, not the correct. I assume he thinks it would be great to be both, but I really dont think he cares if his decisions get flipped on appeal. 

 

[TheoShmeo]

Something like this is not a one-issue or one-factor thing.
 
Goodell is going to act based on the sum total of the many inputs and pressures.  His actions will not be wholly based on public perceptions but enjoy your stay in the nuthouse if you think it has nothing to do with that.  The public is the consumer of the product, after all, and not paying it any heed seems inconceivable. 
 
And it's not all because he's gunning for the Pats.  As MMA said above, Goodell is dealing with a lot of competing pressures, and is going to try to thread the needle.  Not that I expect him to do a good job of it.
 
While I think the Pats will be punished, I will say that I don't see severe penalties in absence of hard evidence.  But an apology or even no penalties seems inconceivable to me.  However you weight his own attitudes, the other owners, the public and the media, the net result is going to be some kind of penalty.
 
Here's to another one of my strongly held opinions being wrong.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm fine with any punishment as long as it comes with a dead-serious proclamation that moving forward the NFL will strive to be a leader in the "football manipulation space."

 

[snowmanny]

Something like this is not a one-issue or one-factor thing.
 


Goodell is going to act based on the sum total of the many inputs and pressures.  His actions will not be wholly based on public perceptions but enjoy your stay in the nuthouse if you think it has nothing to do with that.  The public is the consumer of the product, after all, and not paying it any heed seems inconceivable. 
 
And it's not all because he's gunning for the Pats.  As MMA said above, Goodell is dealing with a lot of competing pressures, and is going to try to
thread the needle.  Not that I expect him to do a good job of it.
 
While I think the Pats will be punished, I will say
that I don't see severe penalties in absence of hard evidence.  But an apology or even no penalties seems inconceivable to me.  However you weight his own attitudes, the other owners,
the public and the media, the net result is going to be some kind of penalty.
 
Here's to another one of my strongly held opinions being wrong.

What specific violation do you foresee them being
punished for?

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Something like this is not a one-issue or one-factor thing.
 
Goodell is going to act based on the sum total of the many inputs and pressures.  His actions will not be wholly based on public perceptions but enjoy your stay in the nuthouse if you think it has nothing to do with that.  The public is the consumer of the product, after all, and not paying it any heed seems inconceivable. 
 
And it's not all because he's gunning for the Pats.  As MMA said above, Goodell is dealing with a lot of competing pressures, and is going to try to thread the needle.  Not that I expect him to do a good job of it.
 
While I think the Pats will be punished, I will say that I don't see severe penalties in absence of hard evidence.  But an apology or even no penalties seems inconceivable to me.  However you weight his own attitudes, the other owners, the public and the media, the net result is going to be some kind of penalty.
 
Here's to another one of my strongly held opinions being wrong.

 
A lot of emhasis has been placed on Goodell's incentives and constrains, but not enough on the Pats'. What those should be is subjective, but IMO, this isn't merely a legal issue for them; if it was, any slap on the wrist like a 5th or 7th round pick is light enough to let this matter go and move to the next one.
 
However, anything other than full and clear exoneration is also a huge PR hit for the Pats as well IMO and it allows the undermining of all their accomplishments over the past 15 decades. Sure, some would say that certain people are going to view the Pats as being cheats no matter what the NFL says, but if the NFL metes out a punishment, then for the rest of our lives, we - and the Pats- are faced with "even the NFL found wrongdoing and they let you off easily too" type of arguments instead of the Pats being able to say "there was nothing there, it was just a huge media fracas".
 
If Craft shares the same analysis -and his actions so far lead me to believe that he does- then he has no other option other than to fight even the lightest of sanctions legally and publicly with all of his might.
 
All of which is to say, that our collective analysis should leads us into a prediction of a Kraft-Goodell clash after a likely Pats' punishment by the NFL.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'm fine with any punishment as long as it comes with a dead-serious proclamation that moving forward the NFL will strive to be a leader in the "football manipulation space."

I'd enjoy a commercial featuring a deflated football against a white backdrop in silence for 30 seconds.

 

[Ed Hillel]

His actions will not be wholly based on public perceptions but enjoy your stay in the nuthouse if you think it has nothing to do with that.  The public is the consumer of the product, after all, and not paying it any heed seems inconceivable. 
 
But an apology or even no penalties seems inconceivable to me.  

 
Then why hire Wells in the first place? Goodell could have docked the Patriots a 2nd rounder via "internal investigation" and been done with it, if he wanted to ride the perception wave. I'm sure I will hear it was a "concession to Kraft," but explain why he would grant such a concession and then feel compelled to largely ignore the Wells report and punish his franchise anyway. That's not much of a concession, in fact it's only a danger to the NFL Front Office, because I guarantee you they are not going to come away looking good in all of this regardless. For all we know, Roger is pissed at his underlings more than anyone and hired Wells to protect himself. Or perhaps he hired Wells because he planned on not punishing the Patriots in the first place and figured he could at least wash his hands clean of the matter and justify his lack of punishment. How else would you look at the hiring of Wells? His hiring was the best thing that could have happened for New England.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Snowmanny:
 
Deflating the balls.
 
Goodell will conclude that the there is no explanation other than the Pats did the deflating given the difference between the Pats and Colts PSI levels.
 
What a load of nonsense all this is....
 
That we're even debating it is sad.
 
That it's in the backdrop of THE GREATEST ENDING OF A SUPER BOWL EVER makes it go down a helluva lot easier. 
 
Ed:
 
The report was needed for a bunch of reasons.  The two biggest ones were that Wells could have found a smoking gun and the NFL has a huge credibility issue so for process and perception reason, they had to have an outsider do the work.  My thesis is that if Wells finds really bad stuff, the Pats get will get whacked hard (not a controversial position, obviously) and if he finds nothing, essentially, they will still get whacked, but on the lighter side, because the facts on the ground speak for themselves.  Res Ipsa Loquitur for the lawyers and other morons in the crowd.  What will be more interesting will be if Wells finds something less than a smoking gun but more than the nothing most of us expect him to be find, but I digress.   

 

[joe dokes]

Then why hire Wells in the first place?
 

 
To protect himself. To look like they did something.  For the same reason they hired a bunch of doctors to mumble about concussions.  For the same reason they hired a bunch of women to occupy the domestic violence space. So when asked "what have you done?" he can say, "this, this and this." 
 
"I've read the exhaustive report." and [what Theo said]: "there is no explanation other than the Pats did the deflating given the difference between the Pats and Colts PSI levels" and res ipsa.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm not a lawyer, but I'm not sure how " res ipsa" is applicable when the Pats controlled neither the balls after giving them to the refs, nor the change in air temperature and atmospheric conditions. Nor were there measurements recorded to verify what the psi changes were. Assuming there is no evidence of tampering, I think Goodell  takes on far more risk than reward with a non-factually supportable verdict. And by Kraft's words it seems he would contest such a verdict to clear his reputation.
 
I understand cynicism can rule our logic, and many here feel Goodell is way way out of his depth, and operates with equal measures of short-sightedness, vindictiveness, while trying to gauge popular opinion, but I have a hard time believing that good counsel would advice him to pursue a course where the risks to him appear very high.  

 

[ifmanis5]

I understand cynicism can rule our logic, and many here feel Goodell is way way out of his depth, and operates with equal measures of short-sightedness, vindictiveness, while trying to gauge popular opinion, but I have a hard time believing that good counsel would advice him to pursue a course where the risks to him appear very high.  

Good counsel? Have you already forgotten about the Ray Rice saga?
We're dealing with a completely broken leadership regime here. Assume no good anything. Despite whatever common sense might be in the Wells report, it's going into a human turd machine.

 

[snowmanny]

Snowmanny:
 
Deflating the balls.

 
Goodell will conclude that the there is no explanation other than the Pats did the deflating given the difference between the Pats and Colts
PSI levels.
 
What a load of nonsense all this is....
 

That we're even debating it is sad.
 
That it's in the backdrop of THE GREATEST ENDING OF A SUPER BOWL EVER makes it go down a helluva lot easier. 
 
Ed:
 
The report was needed for a bunch of reasons.  The two biggest ones were that Wells could have
found a smoking gun and the NFL has a huge credibility issue so for process and perception reason, they had to have an outsider do the work.  My thesis is that if Wells finds really bad stuff, the
Pats get will get whacked hard (not a controversial position, obviously) and if he finds nothing, essentially, they will still get whacked, but on the lighter side, because the facts on the
ground speak for themselves.  Res Ipsa Loquitur for the lawyers and other morons in the crowd.  What will be more interesting will be if Wells finds something less than a smoking gun but more than
the nothing most of us expect him to be find, but I digress.   

I don't believe they get hit "on the lighter side". If they are found to have deflated balls then Belichick gets a long suspension.

 

[bankshot1]

Good counsel? Have you already forgotten about the Ray Rice saga?
We're dealing with a completely broken leadership regime here. Assume no good anything. Despite whatever common sense might be in the Wells report, it's going into a human turd machine.

 
I'm assuming Wells is a bright guy, with no axe to grind, who sees a bigger picture.
 
I'm assuming Goodell understands one more big PR fuck-up and he's probably gone.
 
So to pursue a powerful owner who has already proclaimed there is no smoking gun, with a bogus penalty, is all but to court a nasty fight. 
 
If he's going after Kraft he better have some compelling evidence, because anything less will entail a fight.

 

[twothousandone]

 
I'd like to think that Ted Wells is probably not a stupid capricious asshole, and if the evidence of Pats tampering is not there, he will advice the stupid capricious asshole it would be in his best interest and the leagues best interest to save the hammer and dick swinging for another day.

This is my thinking. I don't know that the report will recommend any sort of action, but if the report does note that a football can deflate from 11.5 psi to something less due to the kind of weather that existed in Foxborough that day, I can't see any punishment coming.