#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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djbayko

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dcmissle said:
Beyond that, I don't see Berman doing this unless he got buy-in from both sides in advance, that they would not appeal. Because otherwise, he's going to get reversed and look like a jackass after acquitting himself very solidly throughout.

And if the parties have refused to buy-in thus far, why would they buy-in after the fact? Doesn't it seem probable that the court floated the notion of a cut in the suspension with both sides walking away?
Why would two sides in litigation *ever* agree to something like that? It sounds to me like a settlement + a judge's decision. What is the advantage of that?
 

BusRaker

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pappymojo said:
Funny but Jets and Giants are higher on the list than the Texans.  I'm still rooting for the Texans even if the owner is an ass, mostly because
 
fuck the colts.
FIFY
 

OnWisc

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I think the NFL would immediately appeal any such decision. Their PR obsession wouldn't permit a situation where Brady appeals and they don't. And if the NFL filed first they'd float it that guilty Brady was ecstatic to get two games and only appealed because the NFL did first. Plus if the likely worst case scenario for the NFL in an appeal becomes two games, why not?

Beyond that, Goodell doesn't settle. He may try to signal that he's happy finding common ground but you can bet that behind the scenes he's doing everything possible to advance his own cause and fuck you over. He's not the kind of guy who is going to take his foot off anyone's throat, (even if he's actually just stomping on his own balls). He's always on the offensive and by now the NFLPA must realize that.

He's the kind of guy that in the wake of such a decision would reach out to Brady and Kraft, tell them it's unfortunate they couldn't find common ground to settle, but hopes they can move forward with the judges decision behind them. Then five minutes before kickoff in week three the NFL would announce they were appealing.

Goodell is nobody's friend. If he were an ice cream flavor, he'd be pralines and dick.
 

dcmissle

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Shelterdog said:
 
I've yet to meet the former clerk who doesn't intimate that they know an awful lot about how their judge would rule.  Not to the wall street journal but you can bet that every former Berman clerk at a big firm is getting peppered with questions by curious partners, and they're all kind of shrugging and giving sphinx like looks and Delphic answers and saying "well on the one side he really cares about the merits, but he also cares about the law."  Also, none of them have any fucking idea what they're talking about.
I would listen to someone who clerked for him within the last five years. I'd like to know how risk averse he is recently to reversal -- that can change over time. I'd like to talk to the clerk on the recently issued opinion, referred to here yesterday, that supposedly gives team Brady so much reason for hope. How does that differ from this case? Are those differences likely to be important to the judge? To be sure, this isn't foolproof, but it seems to me that these are useful conversations to have.

I have had a couple of such conversations with people who clerked for court of appeals judges I would soon be arguing to. I was very circumspect and elliptical. His was after studying everything written by those judges on the relevant issues. Small sample size, but those conversations proved valuable.

I have also been on the other end of those conversations, offering advice very general -- the judge likes this (he did); don't do that ( cause he didn't like it). I'd like to think that helped.
 

Jimbodandy

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Perhaps if NFLPA wins, the cover story is "rogue judge" rather than "technicality!!".  "Heck even the Brady team thought they were gonna lose !!!!11"
 

amarshal2

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dirtynine said:
This made me feel optimistic...
https://twitter.com/SeanTierney/status/639126702992572416
 
 
I'm probably naive, but I have no idea who this guy is.  Still, he later posted a seemingly informed guess at how this will play out.  
 
tl;dr: He thinks Berman's efforts to keep himself and the courts out of this means he will only rule on FAA evident partiality and not law of the shop (notice, etc.).  Further, the thinks this will force the NFL's hand away from appealing because the entire appeal would be about Goodell's neutrality and would not play well in the public. 
 
Here are a couple interesting parts and a link:
 
Judge Berman will rule in favor of Brady. But Brady will not be out of the woods– and not for the reasons you think. Judge Berman will vacate the arbitrator’s decision using Section Ten of the Federal Arbitration Act (FAA). Section Ten of the FAA provides that a judge may vacate an arbitrator’s award if the arbitrator acted with evident partiality to one of the parties before him (see images below for my legal take on evident partiality is the winning argument). Here’s the catch: A vacation of an arbitrator’s award does not conclude the matter. Unlike the “law of the shop” argument, which would nullify the grounds and reasoning for the suspension, a section ten vacation would send the matter back down to be re-heard by a neutral arbitrator (my guess: former NFL Commissioner (and lawyer) Paul Tagliabue or a mutually agreed upon panel of three arbitrators).
This is the classic, “Everybody wins and everybody loses” outcome. For Judge Berman it is the most reasonable and most prudent route.
.....
First, the issue on appeal would be: “Was the Commissioner of the NFL objectively partial to the NFL when he served as arbitrator?” Not only is this a difficult legal argument for the NFL, it is an argument that will not hold well in the court of public opinion. (Really NFL? Rather than going back to arbitration you are going to fight tooth and nail by arguing Goodell wasn’t partial to his company?). Second, If the NFL feels strongly about their case, the Wells report, and the propriety of their investigation, wouldn’t they welcome the opportunity to present their case to a neutral third party and settle the issue once and for all?
 
 
https://spatricktierney.wordpress.com/2015/08/27/the-case-for-a-reasonable-outcome-in-deflategate/
He gets pretty detailed if you click on the "hot take" at the bottom.
 

dcmissle

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Expect vehement denial from team Brady in 3, 2, 1 ... Nobody on team Brady would confide such concern at this point unless it was totally off the record. Band even then, I don't think you would do it. Nothing to be gained.
 

LuckyBen

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amarshal2 said:
Because the Brady side is not only talking to ESPN, they're expressing doubts to them.
 
And one that covers the Giants to top it off. This guy had to of been camped out at NFL headquarters.
 

E5 Yaz

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espn.com: "For the NFL, this case is not about deflated footballs anymore. It is 100% about the authority of commissioner Roger Goodell to impose and arbitrate discipline," said ESPN's Dan Graziano.
 
***
 
Umm, Dan ... it's always been about that. Well, that and the next CBA
 

MarcSullivaFan

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I assume that Kessler and Co have been telling Brady and the Union from the beginning that this is an uphill battle. I started out seeing this as 75/25 in favor of the league. I'm at about 51/49 in favor of the union now.

So, it's certainly not surprising that Brady's "camp" would not be expecting a win.
 

DavidTai

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E5 Yaz said:
espn.com: "For the NFL, this case is not about deflated footballs anymore. It is 100% about the authority of commissioner Roger Goodell to impose and arbitrate discipline," said ESPN's Dan Graziano.
 
***
 
Umm, Dan ... it's always been about that. Well, that and the next CBA
 
And if he'd done it -by- the book, and not this... well, whatever 'investigation' this is, the authority of Roger Goodell would not even be an issue.
 
That he botched everything makes this an issue, and it's self-inflicted.
 

Myt1

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amarshal2 said:
Because the Brady side is not only talking to ESPN, they're expressing doubts to them.
There's a reason it's "union/Brady" side. Way more people who don't know what they're talking about and are all too happy to chat about it, when it's framed that way.
 

dcmissle

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I assume that Kessler and Co have been telling Brady and the Union from the beginning that this is an uphill battle. I started out seeing this as 75/25 in favor of the league. I'm at about 51/49 in favor of the union now.

So, it's certainly not surprising that Brady's "camp" would not be expecting a win.
Who poor mouths their prospects to a reporter, much less a reporter with a hostile network, on the eve of a decision? It's preposterous.
 

Jimbodandy

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dcmissle said:
Who poor mouths their prospects to a reporter, much less a reporter with a hostile network, on the eve of a decision? It's preposterous.
 
99% of this process pre-Berman has been preposterous, mostly coming from ESPNFL.  This is propaganda, not reporting.
 

Myt1

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dcmissle said:
Who poor mouths their prospects to a reporter, much less a reporter with a hostile network, on the eve of a decision? It's preposterous.
Giants player rep?
 

jimbobim

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Just read through Graziano's twitter discussion about his "info". Less than a grain of salt. So many caveats. 
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
soxhop411 said:
 
Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss  3m3 minutes ago
Texans owner Bob McNair on Tom Brady: "Is there anything conclusive there? No, you don't have any conclusive evidence." (via SportsRadio610)
 
"Excuse me, Mr. McNair, but did you say....  PETTriots?"
 
D&H playing the audio now, which if I heard them correctly, the Texans are trying to claim ownership of......?
 

Eddie Jurak

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MarcSullivaFan said:
I assume that Kessler and Co have been telling Brady and the Union from the beginning that this is an uphill battle. I started out seeing this as 75/25 in favor of the league. I'm at about 51/49 in favor of the union now.
Because you obviously know your shit, I find this to be horrifying. In the end, what Goodell has done is not that far from: 1. pick a player at random, 2. Trump up a ridiculous accusation, 3. Wage an illicit PR campaign against said player (and his team), 4. Make a mockery of said player's right to appeal under the CBA.

If this ends with "5. Profit" I will be beyond disgusted.

I don't see what protection any player would have against having Goodell fuck with him and wreck his career on an unproven technicality.

We have basically a coin flip over THAT outcome? If Brady loses here, the NFL is basically the WWE.
 

dcdrew10

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TheWizard said:
Dan Graziano ‏@DanGrazianoESPN  2h
The people to whom I'm talking on the union/Brady side do not expect the decision to go their way. That's what I meant.
 
Link to Tweet
 
Why do I imagine Graziano's phone ringing, him looking at the Caller ID seeing "Kensil, Mike" answering it to hear this: "Hey Dan, it's Ke...Kessler, yeah, Kessler...just wanted to say, off the record, that we aren't too optimistic and we think Berman is going to rule for Mr. Goodell. You can repeat that, but it's off the record. Again this is Jeffrey Kessler, K-E-S-S-L-E-R. Not Kensil."?
 
Like most people said, I can't imagine anyone from the NFLPA or Brady's inner circle calling Graziano. 
 

Eddie Jurak

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dcdrew10 said:
 
Why do I imagine Graziano's phone ringing, him looking at the Caller ID seeing "Kensil, Mike" answering it to hear this: "Hey Dan, it's Ke...Kessler, yeah, Kessler...just wanted to say, off the record, that we aren't too optimistic and we think Berman is going to rule for Mr. Goodell. You can repeat that, but it's off the record. Again this is Jeffrey Kessler, K-E-S-S-L-E-R. Not Kensil."?
 
Like most people said, I can't imagine anyone from the NFLPA or Brady's inner circle calling Graziano. 
"Kessler, yeah, Kessler... That's the ticket!"
 

Bongorific

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Potentially but I have received decisions at all hours. The primary reason for a 4/5pm filing is office logistics. Orders are drafted during the day and a clerk or secretary e-files the day's work at the end of the day. If Berman doesn't have much else going on though he could file it at any hour.
 

ifmanis5

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When a judge writes a decision, does the judge show it to anyone else for vetting/editing, or is it just their words only and that's that?
 

DJnVa

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
Referring to this as GoodellGate instead of DeflateGate my be pointless and petty, but damn it's satisfying.
 
 
It's all been pointless and petty.
 
 

JimD

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The 'union/Brady side' could arguably include anyone who's a member of the NFLPA.
 

Marciano490

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ifmanis5 said:
When a judge writes a decision, does the judge show it to anyone else for vetting/editing, or is it just their words only and that's that?
His clerks. Appellate judges circulate it on the panel. Some district judges will have others in the district review it or will talk it out.
 

Captaincoop

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I've now got "Defamation" playing in my head to the tune of "Cat Scratch Fever". 
 
Thanks Roger Goodell, you've officially finished me off as a somewhat useful member of society.
 

RG33

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natpastime162 said:
 
Careful, touchy subject.  Somehow gets past all the sarcasm and satire sensors.
Also, FYI - Judges are people too.  They have feelings, emotions, and sometimes can be flirty and whimsical.  
 

djbayko

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If Berman does rule for the NFLPA - and especially if it's scathing - I really hope the order drops soon. With the NFL controlling leaks and information flow up to now, Brady deserves maximum news cycle time on this before the long weekend kills anything.
 

ifmanis5

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Captaincoop said:
I've now got "Defamation" playing in my head to the tune of "Cat Scratch Fever". 
 
Thanks Roger Goodell, you've officially finished me off as a somewhat useful member of society.
We're through the looking glass, people.