lexrageorge said:
I will agree with you that this decision was the one that I thought was most likely to bite them in the rear this season (and possibly next as well). Catchers do often seem to take time to develop at the major league level (at least that's my anecdotal observation). Varitek didn't become a full time starter until he was 27. The worst case scenario had they resigned Salty was that the minor league catchers were ready to play significant innings next year, and as a result the team is paying a lot of money for a part time catcher for the 2nd half of the contract. That doesn't seem such a bad scenario had it come to fruition.
But I'm not at all convinced that the team's deciding to replace Salty with AJP is evidence that the team has no plan, or that their planning process is seriously flawed. Sometimes the results don't pan out no matter what process is followed. Also, no process guarantees that mistakes are never made.
I see this said often here. I investigated a bit, and it doesn't really seem to be the case. The list below is the top 12 catchers this year, in terms of playing time, plus a few others i could think of off the top of my head, with the age they first came up for more than a handful of games (number of games in parentheses), and the age they became the "starter" (which I chose based on the first year they played in more than half of the games).
Player, First year age (games played), Full-time age
Yadier Molina, 21 (51G), 22
Salvador Perez, 21 (39G) -- had some injury issues, but was basically given the job as soon as he was called up
Brian McCann, 21 (59G), 22
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 22 -- he was instantly the starter for Texas (93G), but his travails are well-chronicled
Kurt Suzuki, 23 (68G), 24
Buster Posey, 23, immediately the starter
Miguel Montero, 23, immediately the starter
Jason Castro, 23 (67G), missed a season, then played 87G at age 25
AJ Pierzynski, 23 (33G), 24
Matt Wieters, 23, immediately the starter
Derek Norris, 23, has always split time, but also gets ABs at DH
Jonathan Lucroy, 24 (75G), 25
Yan Gomes, 24 (43G), 25
Jose Molina, 24, always a backup or splitting time
David Ross, 26, has only had two seasons where he played more than 81G
John Jaso, 26, immediately the starter
Ryan Hanigan, 27 (31G), 28
Carlos Ruiz, 27 (78G), 28
There's a pretty regular curve there that points to the average age for breaking in a catcher being at 23, with no more than a year before they take over (or flame out, I guess). Also, among the older rookies, there is more likelihood of remaining a backup.
Christian Vazquez will be 24 in August. Blake Swihart is currently 22. This is not to say they are ready, just providing the information for comparison.