Dolphin Day: Thursday
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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It seems BB has traditionally taken away what teams want to do primarily and makes them beat you using their plan B. My best guess to the Patriots approach starts with stopping Lamar Miller first and foremost. The Dolphins offense has been a completely different animal when Miller has gotten going. My guess is the Pats commit to stopping Miller and make the offense one dimensional and force Tannehill to beat them.
Tannehill, Landry, and Matthews have been in a serious groove, but if they stuff Miller on first and second downs, it forces Tannehill into third and longs, something they've struggled with all season.
Tannehill, Landry, and Matthews have been in a serious groove, but if they stuff Miller on first and second downs, it forces Tannehill into third and longs, something they've struggled with all season.
Tannehill career vs. NE:
2012
vs NE (L, 23-16) - 13-29, 186 yds, 0 td, 0 int
at NE (L, 28-0) - 20-35, 235 yds, 0 td, 1 int
2013
at NE (L, 27-17) - 22-42, 192 yds, 2 td, 2 int
vs NE (W, 24-20) - 25-37, 312 yds, 3 td, 0 int
2014
vs NE (W, 33-20) - 18-32, 178 yds, 2 td, 1 int
at NE (L, 41-13) - 29-47, 346 yds, 1 td, 2 int
TOTALS: 127-222 (57.2%), 1,449 yds, 8 td, 6 int, 77.7 rating
So not really very good, but he's had a couple of nice games against NE. He's capable of playing well vs. the Pats, but I'd say his best games vs. NE have been in Miami. He hasn't really been that good in Foxboro.
2012
vs NE (L, 23-16) - 13-29, 186 yds, 0 td, 0 int
at NE (L, 28-0) - 20-35, 235 yds, 0 td, 1 int
2013
at NE (L, 27-17) - 22-42, 192 yds, 2 td, 2 int
vs NE (W, 24-20) - 25-37, 312 yds, 3 td, 0 int
2014
vs NE (W, 33-20) - 18-32, 178 yds, 2 td, 1 int
at NE (L, 41-13) - 29-47, 346 yds, 1 td, 2 int
TOTALS: 127-222 (57.2%), 1,449 yds, 8 td, 6 int, 77.7 rating
So not really very good, but he's had a couple of nice games against NE. He's capable of playing well vs. the Pats, but I'd say his best games vs. NE have been in Miami. He hasn't really been that good in Foxboro.
I defer to the ITP guys about what the Pats did against the Dolphins last year and what the Dolphins offense did this year, but that sounds right.sodenj5 said:
I also wouldn't be surprised if he has Ryan and McCourty double Landry, who seems to be a key piece of that offense.
In some ways, this is actually like the Jets defensive game plan -- stop the run on 1st down, double the key WR (Marshall on Sunday, Landry? on Thursday).
Has Jordan Cameron been effective the last few weeks? That's a wrinkle the Jets lacked.
Price at EEI did a write up "5 things you should know about the Dolphins" http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/10/26/5-things-you-have-to-know-about-dolphins-dan-campbell-has-miami-feeling-good-entering-clash-with-patriots/sodenj5 said:
I found it pretty informative. Seems like the tandem of Landry (5'-11" 202#) and Matthews (6'-0" 217#) has been pretty good for the Dolphins. I would have to think that the Pats secondary matches up much better with them than the Marshall (6'-4" 230#)/ Decker (6'-3" 214#) duo that the Pats struggled with last week.
C4CRVT said:
Miami's primary guys are definitely Matthews and Landry, and they're both typical west-coast offense guys. Smaller, quicker than fast, good hands, YAC ability. They do have size in the form of Cameron and Sims around the goal line and DeVante Parker, who hasn't contributed much because of the play of the three guys in front of him on the depth chart, but did make a circus catch that was negated by a penalty in the Houston game. Their offensive skill position guys are very deep, diverse, and talented, it's just taken longer than expected for them to really start clicking.
Since it's Fins week, some guy wrote an article for ITP on Miami's receivers before the start of the season.
rymflaherty said:
Ugh, I was at that Tyler Thigpen Bears game too. The Dolphins never crossed the 30 yard line. I'll never forget with about a minute left the Fins picked up a first down and right on cue the PA Guy plays "That's another Miami Dolphins First Down" and this gaggle of obnoxious Bears fans were laughing their selves silly.(in fairness, it reminded me of how hard I was laughing when the Yankee Stadium guy was playing Enter Sandman for Rivera when he came into Game 7 in 2004, down 10-3). I took my 8 year old to his first game in 2012 and got to witness the 37-3 Titans game, the worst Dolphins home loss in 45 years. Chart brought back some fond memories.
That being said, this week I'd just like to see the Dolphins continue to play with the same passion and to look like they actually belong on the same field. I don't expect to win this game, just would like to come out of it still feeling better about the team. There are enough non-Patriot games left on the schedule to salvage the season.
I read the article, nicely done.sodenj5 said:
As for the matchups, I'd have to wonder if Miami is going to try to surprise the Pats with Parker. He's more of a match up problem. He could pull a bit of a Chris Matthews.
C4CRVT said:
Thanks! I sort of doubt it. He might see some red zone work as an additional wrinkle/mismatch possibility, but they've been consistently saying that Parker has shown flashes in practice, but he's clearly behind Landry, Matthews, and Stills. Part of that is him missing time in training camp recovering from foot surgery, part of it is being a rookie, and part of it is there's three really good receivers in front of him. He's probably playing more for another team right now.
They have the luxury of "slow cooking" him. Maybe not the contribution that you want from your first round pick, but I don't think the front office was banking on Matthews not only being the best receiver on the team, but being among the very best receivers in the league according to DVOA and DYAR.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2015/week-7-quick-reads
Pats allow 107.5 YAC/G which is 8th in the league which suggests they tackle quite well.
The more I think about it, Miami's defensive line dominating the Patriots' resilient O-line is going to have to be the storyline for the Fins to win this one. It's the only way I see it happening. That'll require a massive game from Suh, both in the run game and with the interior pass rush. Let's see how much of that paycheck he earns Thursday night.
pdaj said:
Miami can't win with just this....it will take much more than that. If the o-line is getting dominated, Brady will get the ball out in under 2 seconds and it just won't matter. Nobody gets consistent pressure up the interior in under 2 seconds. If your goal is to win by slowing the Pats, then at the very, very, least you need the d-line to dominate AND you need the secondary and scheme to confuse Brady and get him to hold onto the ball.
Obviously there's a million ways the Fins can win (e.g., turnovers) but even if Suh has the game of his life the Pats win if everything else plays out as expected.
Greg Bedard, who knows his stuff, was completely dismissive of Miami's chances in this game on 98.5 today, saying that while the DL would probably get pressure - especially off the edges - the secondary will get eaten alive. He thinks having Jones cover Gronk creates other big holes the Pats can exploit and didn't even want to guess at who they'd try to cover him with.
Also, the audio clip of Dan Campbell starting a sentence with dude and ending it with man will always be funny.
Also, the audio clip of Dan Campbell starting a sentence with dude and ending it with man will always be funny.
I really do see the Fins' secondary as a major mismatch in this one. Nothing I've seen thus far this season makes me confident that the Fins' DB/S/LB can contain Gronk/Edleman/Co. Bobby McCain better bring his big boy pants.
I think Miami doubles Gronk with Jones and a LB. Jones is a very good SS, but he's not the best when it comes to coverage. If they plan on singling Gronk with Jones, that will be a mismatch all game long. Miami has said that they've simplified their gameplan. They aren't going to go out there and throw a bunch of exotic blitzes or crazy looks at Brady to try and confuse him. They're going to come after him with the front 4 as much as possible. If Miami can create consistent pressure without having to bring extra blitzers, they stand a chance. One thing they've been doing lately is rotating Cam Wake a lot more than they did in the past. Shelby plays a fair share of the first and second downs against the run, and Wake will come in on third downs to get after the QB.
Being completely realistic, it's a game NE should win. Miami has struggled in NE and playing them on a short week will do them no favors. I'm honestly not sure how I would play NE defensively. Do you consistently bring heat and squat on the underneath stuff? You leave yourself vulnerable to the big play if the blitz gets picked up and Brady can chuck it downfield to the monolith with the 87 jersey. The season opener last season showed that Miami can get to Brady and fluster him. I'm just not sure if they'll be able to do it consistently enough for 60 minutes to pull out a win on the road.
A quick FYI, Miami is third in the league in terms of defensive DVOA against TEs. They obviously haven't faced a TE the caliber of Gronk, but they've done a decent job of containing TEs in general this year.
Being completely realistic, it's a game NE should win. Miami has struggled in NE and playing them on a short week will do them no favors. I'm honestly not sure how I would play NE defensively. Do you consistently bring heat and squat on the underneath stuff? You leave yourself vulnerable to the big play if the blitz gets picked up and Brady can chuck it downfield to the monolith with the 87 jersey. The season opener last season showed that Miami can get to Brady and fluster him. I'm just not sure if they'll be able to do it consistently enough for 60 minutes to pull out a win on the road.
A quick FYI, Miami is third in the league in terms of defensive DVOA against TEs. They obviously haven't faced a TE the caliber of Gronk, but they've done a decent job of containing TEs in general this year.
The game will be a struggle but I still think the Patriots will take it at home. Everyone wants to cite the Dolphins being able to get pressure on brady as the deciding factor, but both the Cowboys and Jets got to Brady often early in the game and the Patriots still put up 30 on both teams. So even when teams get pressure, the Pats o-line seems to make the necessary adjustments and the team still scores a ton. I think that same thing holds true this week and the Pats win say 31-24. If Tannehill throws a couple picks though, there is a chance the Pats win closer to something like 34-10.
You're not likely to confuse him into doing something dumb, but it's about making him hesitate for a bit - maybe not even a full second - and come off his first read, diagnose the coverage, find the open man, and maybe you buy time for the pass rush to get home. I think the last play mascho drew up in his Chess Match piece today is a good example - the Jets sugared the A gaps with the LBs, but then dropped them right into his throwing lane and took away his first read. Brady to had to scramble around. Eventually he made a play, dumping it off to Gronk, but the Jets made it tricky. If you don't disguise what you're doing presnap and just go out there with a vanilla defense, Brady will diagnose it presnap and just eat you alive.Koufax said:
While this may be true, Cam Wake might be the hottest pass rusher on the planet the last two weeks. He has been eating RTs alive. If you don't think that Wake vs Flemming is a major matchup problem, you're in for a shock tomorrow.NickEsasky said:
I think a team's best hope of containing the Pats offense requires a team to hope that 4 rushers can get to Brady because the back 7 have completed flooded all the short stuff, thereby challenging Brady to hold onto the ball and beat you over the top, the one area where the Pats aren't optimally situated.sodenj5 said:
sodenj5 said:
Oh, it's a major mismatch. That's why it's likely Michael Williams or Scott Chandler will be lined up next to Fleming and tasked with chipping Wake before releasing into a pattern. They'll do the same thing on the other side with Gronkowski or Chandler and Vernon.
Of course it's a mismatch. But Greg Hardy was also eating Solder and Cannon's lunch until the pats adjusted and he ran out of gas getting chipped by a TE then dealing with a LT on every play. I trust the Pats to try to do enough to slow Wake down while giving Brady the 2 or so seconds he needs to find an open guy. We keep hearing about how such and such a defense will slow down the Pats and while certain teams made things hard on the offense, at the end of the day they dropped 30+ on all of them. I respect the Dolphins for sure, don't think otherwise. But until a team actually stops the Patriots offense, I am going to believe in them.sodenj5 said:
It's hard to say how good Miami's D is. FO rankings:
After week 5 Overall 30 (17.9%)
After week 6 Overall 25 (8%)
After week 7 Overall 15 (2.7%)- Rush 19- Pass 13
Two really good games against the Titans and Texans have moved them from being a putrid D to a middle of the pack D.
The thing that makes me nervous is the house of cards that is the OL right now.
Hopefully Cannon will be healthy soon...
After week 5 Overall 30 (17.9%)
After week 6 Overall 25 (8%)
After week 7 Overall 15 (2.7%)- Rush 19- Pass 13
Two really good games against the Titans and Texans have moved them from being a putrid D to a middle of the pack D.
The thing that makes me nervous is the house of cards that is the OL right now.
Hopefully Cannon will be healthy soon...
Last year's Pats held opponents to under 15 points 5 times, and 20 points or fewer 9 times. Through six games this year, it's under 15 once and 20 or less twice. Even with a turnover or two, it's hard to imagine this defense holding a decent offense to less than two touchdowns. I hope it happens, but I would put the over/under on Dolphins points in the 17-20 range.NickEsasky said:
Context matters. When the game was still in doubt, the pats defense has been very good overall this year. In two of the games that the opposing team ended up putting up 21 or more, the Pats were up meaningfully after 3 & had held the other team to under 14 through 3:
buffalo: 37-13 after 3
pittsburgh: pats up 21-11 after 3
That being said, trends matter too, and the last two games were close throughout and the other team managed to put up 23 and 27 points.
Maybe purely selective memory but Pats divisional games always seem to be too close for comfort even when they shouldn't be on paper. I think the Pats win by a 7 and there are a few nail-biter moments in the 4th.
buffalo: 37-13 after 3
pittsburgh: pats up 21-11 after 3
That being said, trends matter too, and the last two games were close throughout and the other team managed to put up 23 and 27 points.
Maybe purely selective memory but Pats divisional games always seem to be too close for comfort even when they shouldn't be on paper. I think the Pats win by a 7 and there are a few nail-biter moments in the 4th.
Something else that has been flying somewhat under the radar for Miami has been the play of their OLBs, Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins. Take their ratings for what they're worth, but among 4-3 OLB, both Misi (4th) and Jenkins (7th) are in the top 10 according to PFF, and Jenkins leads all 4-3 OLBs in terms of coverage and run stop percentage. Koa Misi is 2nd in pass rush productivity. Misi has been productive as an OLB before, he's just always had an issue staying healthy.
Between them and the high level of play from Reshad Jones, that aforementioned third DVOA rating against TEs doesn't appear to be an accident. The Dolphins are getting a really high level of play from their OLBs and SS.
Between them and the high level of play from Reshad Jones, that aforementioned third DVOA rating against TEs doesn't appear to be an accident. The Dolphins are getting a really high level of play from their OLBs and SS.
When Miami beat NE in week 1 it was largely due to Miami pounding NE on the ground. They ran it often and at will and allowed Tannehill to play action and no get exposed behind the poor pass rush. The best chance for Miami this week is to have Miller and Jonas Gray do the same, run the ball 30+ times for 150 yards or more. they wore NE down and dominated the fourth quarter of that game. Usually NE wins the 4Q because the opponent d-line and LBs are exhausted.
I think Miami's "secret" weapons could be Stills and Parker, both of whom will see plenty of man coverage. Both have made singular big plays this season down the field, but their opportunities have been very limited as others have said. They pose big problems for the Pats if they are using Mccourty to double Landry. Question is if Tannehill can make them pay (being able to connect down the field) or have time to make them pay
I think Miami's "secret" weapons could be Stills and Parker, both of whom will see plenty of man coverage. Both have made singular big plays this season down the field, but their opportunities have been very limited as others have said. They pose big problems for the Pats if they are using Mccourty to double Landry. Question is if Tannehill can make them pay (being able to connect down the field) or have time to make them pay
To piggy-back on some other peoples' points -- if Tannehill is consistently faced with 3rd-and-7+, this game's not going to be close. The Pats' front 7 will feast.
I agree with Sod' -- similarly to the Jets' game, the Pats will look to take away Miller. For that reason, Miami will have to either have success in the ground or simulate a "ground game" creatively, via screens, quick passes, etc. I expect RT to take some early shots down the field, also.
I agree with Sod' -- similarly to the Jets' game, the Pats will look to take away Miller. For that reason, Miami will have to either have success in the ground or simulate a "ground game" creatively, via screens, quick passes, etc. I expect RT to take some early shots down the field, also.
With no Mariota, those are the two worst offenses in the league.C4CRVT said:
I think the Dolphins defense is better then they showed in the early part of the season, but aren't as good as they appear the last two weeks. Borderline top 10 feels about right.
I think Miller and Landry are the guys BB focuses on taking away. This will likely be the game where their new found dedication to the run might be put to the test. If they go down by 7 or 10, will they continue to feed Miller or will they fall back into the pass happy trap? It's easy to run the ball up 35 in the first half.pdaj said:
Cameron, Stills, Jennings, Parker, Sims. The options are there. We'll see just how good Lazor can be this week.
pdaj said:
I'm not holding my breath for Parker to do anything great this game. I think Stills is the guy that could have a breakout game if they focus their energy on taking away the short game and stopping Landry. The Pats can be beaten deep, and Stills is on of the best in the business at doing it. If they take away Landry underneath and double Matthews outside, who is a sneaky vertical threat himself, Stills could see a lot of single coverage.
Has Tannehill improved his deep ball accuracy? I know he could never get anything going with Mike Wallace and thought it was largely attributed to his problems with the deep ball. I'm certainly not well versed on MIA so would be curious if those who follow the team closer really think they can win a game with a lot of deep shots.
Harmon is an excellent deep ball safety who has his share of picks on long pass attempts. I'm not sure that is a strategy that is going to beat NE. Perhaps if they can establish the run and get Harmon off the field then you can take some shots downfield off play action but if you line up 3,4,5 wide and attempt to beat NE deep I think you are you asking for a turnover.
Harmon is an excellent deep ball safety who has his share of picks on long pass attempts. I'm not sure that is a strategy that is going to beat NE. Perhaps if they can establish the run and get Harmon off the field then you can take some shots downfield off play action but if you line up 3,4,5 wide and attempt to beat NE deep I think you are you asking for a turnover.
Well, despite losing big in the last match up with the Pats he did hit Wallace for 50 at one point and 32 for a sweet one handed TD.
BernieRicoBoomer said:
If this is the play you are referring to, Tanny is on the Pats' 48 yard line when he throws, and Wallace catches it around the Pats' 25 before running virtually untouched the rest of the way after the catch.
As said upthread (or in the other Dolphins' thread), the huge priority in containing Landry, Cameron and their other spark plugs on offense is limiting YAC with sound tackling.
No, that one was in 2013...the two from last year were all in the air.Trlicek's Whip said:
Edit: That one sucked too though, and I agree with your point.
Tannehill is still amongst worst on third down in the league. If that is not better tonight they won't compete for 4Qs
Clears Cleaver said:
Another reason that it's critical that Lamar Miller gets going this game. If Miami finds itself in third and long routinely, they don't have an answer for it. They can't protect well enough to give Tannehill the time he needs to make throws downfield if the defense is bringing pressure. It may be a little better now that Albert is back and is somewhat healthy, but I still wouldn't bank on Miami converting many third and longs this game.
FWIW, NE's defense is ranked 21st in the league against the run with a -6.5% DVOA, so it's not like they can't be run on. The question is, can Miami's D keep the game close enough where they can sustain the running game on offense?
BernieRicoBoomer said:
Google-fu + NFL clips = bad times.
I get the sense that the Jets game plan from last Sunday can be well applied in tonight's game. If MIA's offensive weapons past Miller, Landry, and Cameron are deeper than the Jets' corps (Decker was solid but past him no one was scary or consistent), there will be mayhem.
Trlicek's Whip said:
I wouldn't even list Cameron in the top 3. Landry, Miller, and Matthews run this offense. While Landry gets most of the targets, Matthews leads the team in yards and is second in the league in DVOA. He's having a breakout year. Cameron and Kenny Stills are secondary options. Parker could be a wild card in the red zone, as well as Dion Sims.
sodenj5 said:
It's funny, I wasn't following Cameron too zealously either, but Belichick mentioned him in his "Belestrator" segment on Pats All-Access this week.
Maybe that's the vanilla PR gloss since it's contractual that he's doing those segments and obviously it's not going to disclose his team's granular game plan, but it's presented as a "keys to the game" type stuff for their opponents, and he was very complimentary of Cameron.
Trlicek's Whip said:
Cameron has been good, and he's certainly a weapon, basically a really big WR. I didn't mean that as a slight against Cameron, just that Miami has some really good players at the skill positions. Having someone of Cameron's caliber as the 4th best option on your offense is a good luxury to have.
