2012 was an ok year.. Ok. So I didn't see the patch but good catch. Point still sort of stands that the picture was from a game the Dolphins haven't seen for a while.E5 Yaz said:
Lars is living in 2012
2012 was an ok year.. Ok. So I didn't see the patch but good catch. Point still sort of stands that the picture was from a game the Dolphins haven't seen for a while.E5 Yaz said:
Lars is living in 2012
I defer to the ITP guys about what the Pats did against the Dolphins last year and what the Dolphins offense did this year, but that sounds right.sodenj5 said:It seems BB has traditionally taken away what teams want to do primarily and makes them beat you using their plan B. My best guess to the Patriots approach starts with stopping Lamar Miller first and foremost. The Dolphins offense has been a completely different animal when Miller has gotten going. My guess is the Pats commit to stopping Miller and make the offense one dimensional and force Tannehill to beat them.
Tannehill, Landry, and Matthews have been in a serious groove, but if they stuff Miller on first and second downs, it forces Tannehill into third and longs, something they've struggled with all season.
Price at EEI did a write up "5 things you should know about the Dolphins" http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/10/26/5-things-you-have-to-know-about-dolphins-dan-campbell-has-miami-feeling-good-entering-clash-with-patriots/sodenj5 said:It seems BB has traditionally taken away what teams want to do primarily and makes them beat you using their plan B. My best guess to the Patriots approach starts with stopping Lamar Miller first and foremost. The Dolphins offense has been a completely different animal when Miller has gotten going. My guess is the Pats commit to stopping Miller and make the offense one dimensional and force Tannehill to beat them.
Tannehill, Landry, and Matthews have been in a serious groove, but if they stuff Miller on first and second downs, it forces Tannehill into third and longs, something they've struggled with all season.
C4CRVT said:Price at EEI did a write up "5 things you should know about the Dolphins" http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/10/26/5-things-you-have-to-know-about-dolphins-dan-campbell-has-miami-feeling-good-entering-clash-with-patriots/
I found it pretty informative. Seems like the tandem of Landry (5'-11" 202#) and Matthews (6'-0" 217#) has been pretty good for the Dolphins. I would have to think that the Pats secondary matches up much better with them than the Marshall (6'-4" 230#)/ Decker (6'-3" 214#) duo that the Pats struggled with last week.
rymflaherty said:I hate that Sunday - Thursday chart because it just reminded me of the Dolphins 2010 game vs. the Bears.
That was one of the ugliest offensive performances I have ever seen . Tyler Thigpen was the starting QB, and if I'm recalling correctly, due to injuries, every lineman available was on the field, including a guy playing Center who wasn't a Center.
From what I've seen, the short week really favors the better team. If your poorly coached, lack depth/talent, etc. that seems to be accentuated on short rest, especially on the road. That said, the Patriots coming off a tough game with the Jets and the Dolphins having to really only play a half of football is about as good a situation you can hope for as a Dolphins fan.
At this point I feel like the Dolphins at least have a slim chance at victory, which I'll take, because after that London game I felt like the Patriots would be able to come out on the field and name their score.
That guy does nice work, thanks for that.sodenj5 said:Miami's primary guys are definitely Matthews and Landry, and they're both typical west-coast offense guys. Smaller, quicker than fast, good hands, YAC ability. They do have size in the form of Cameron and Sims around the goal line and DeVante Parker, who hasn't contributed much because of the play of the three guys in front of him on the depth chart, but did make a circus catch that was negated by a penalty in the Houston game. Their offensive skill position guys are very deep, diverse, and talented, it's just taken longer than expected for them to really start clicking.
Since it's Fins week, some guy wrote an article for ITP on Miami's receivers before the start of the season.
I read the article, nicely done.sodenj5 said:
Miami's primary guys are definitely Matthews and Landry, and they're both typical west-coast offense guys. Smaller, quicker than fast, good hands, YAC ability. They do have size in the form of Cameron and Sims around the goal line and DeVante Parker, who hasn't contributed much because of the play of the three guys in front of him on the depth chart, but did make a circus catch that was negated by a penalty in the Houston game. Their offensive skill position guys are very deep, diverse, and talented, it's just taken longer than expected for them to really start clicking.
Since it's Fins week, some guy wrote an article for ITP on Miami's receivers before the start of the season.
C4CRVT said:I read the article, nicely done.
As for the matchups, I'd have to wonder if Miami is going to try to surprise the Pats with Parker. He's more of a match up problem. He could pull a bit of a Chris Matthews.
Mike Reiss @MikeReiss 3m3 minutes ago
Based on quick glimpse at walkthrough, unlikely that absent OT Marcus Cannon, DE Jabaal Sheard or WR Keshawn Martin will be ready Thursday.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2015/week-7-quick-reads
All in all, Tannehill's average pass on Sunday traveled only 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage, and his average completion came just 3.1 yards downfield, both the lowest of any quarterback this week. On the other hand, his average completion produced 12.6 YAC, the highest of any quarterback this week, by more than 4 yards over any other starter.
pdaj said:The more I think about it, Miami's defensive line dominating the Patriots' resilient O-line is going to have to be the storyline for the Fins to win this one. It's the only way I see it happening. That'll require a massive game from Suh, both in the run game and with the interior pass rush. Let's see how much of that paycheck he earns Thursday night.
Brady is the wizened old general out there now. He's seen everything, he's very smart and he's never confused. If that's what it takes, it ain't happening.amarshal2 said:
Miami can't win with just this....it will take much more than that. If the o-line is getting dominated, Brady will get the ball out in under 2 seconds and it just won't matter. Nobody gets consistent pressure up the interior in under 2 seconds. If your goal is to win by slowing the Pats, then at the very, very, least you need the d-line to dominate AND you need the secondary and scheme to confuse Brady and get him to hold onto the ball.
Obviously there's a million ways the Fins can win (e.g., turnovers) but even if Suh has the game of his life the Pats win if everything else plays out as expected.
You're not likely to confuse him into doing something dumb, but it's about making him hesitate for a bit - maybe not even a full second - and come off his first read, diagnose the coverage, find the open man, and maybe you buy time for the pass rush to get home. I think the last play mascho drew up in his Chess Match piece today is a good example - the Jets sugared the A gaps with the LBs, but then dropped them right into his throwing lane and took away his first read. Brady to had to scramble around. Eventually he made a play, dumping it off to Gronk, but the Jets made it tricky. If you don't disguise what you're doing presnap and just go out there with a vanilla defense, Brady will diagnose it presnap and just eat you alive.Koufax said:Brady is the wizened old general out there now. He's seen everything, he's very smart and he's never confused. If that's what it takes, it ain't happening.
While this may be true, Cam Wake might be the hottest pass rusher on the planet the last two weeks. He has been eating RTs alive. If you don't think that Wake vs Flemming is a major matchup problem, you're in for a shock tomorrow.NickEsasky said:The game will be a struggle but I still think the Patriots will take it at home. Everyone wants to cite the Dolphins being able to get pressure on brady as the deciding factor, but both the Cowboys and Jets got to Brady often early in the game and the Patriots still put up 30 on both teams. So even when teams get pressure, the Pats o-line seems to make the necessary adjustments and the team still scores a ton. I think that same thing holds true this week and the Pats win say 31-24. If Tannehill throws a couple picks though, there is a chance the Pats win closer to something like 34-10.
I think a team's best hope of containing the Pats offense requires a team to hope that 4 rushers can get to Brady because the back 7 have completed flooded all the short stuff, thereby challenging Brady to hold onto the ball and beat you over the top, the one area where the Pats aren't optimally situated.sodenj5 said:I think Miami doubles Gronk with Jones and a LB. Jones is a very good SS, but he's not the best when it comes to coverage. If they plan on singling Gronk with Jones, that will be a mismatch all game long. Miami has said that they've simplified their gameplan. They aren't going to go out there and throw a bunch of exotic blitzes or crazy looks at Brady to try and confuse him. They're going to come after him with the front 4 as much as possible. If Miami can create consistent pressure without having to bring extra blitzers, they stand a chance. One thing they've been doing lately is rotating Cam Wake a lot more than they did in the past. Shelby plays a fair share of the first and second downs against the run, and Wake will come in on third downs to get after the QB.
Being completely realistic, it's a game NE should win. Miami has struggled in NE and playing them on a short week will do them no favors. I'm honestly not sure how I would play NE defensively. Do you consistently bring heat and squat on the underneath stuff? You leave yourself vulnerable to the big play if the blitz gets picked up and Brady can chuck it downfield to the monolith with the 87 jersey. The season opener last season showed that Miami can get to Brady and fluster him. I'm just not sure if they'll be able to do it consistently enough for 60 minutes to pull out a win on the road.
A quick FYI, Miami is third in the league in terms of defensive DVOA against TEs. They obviously haven't faced a TE the caliber of Gronk, but they've done a decent job of containing TEs in general this year.
sodenj5 said:While this may be true, Cam Wake might be the hottest pass rusher on the planet the last two weeks. He has been eating RTs alive. If you don't think that Wake vs Flemming is a major matchup problem, you're in for a shock tomorrow.
soxfan121 said:
Oh, it's a major mismatch. That's why it's likely Michael Williams or Scott Chandler will be lined up next to Fleming and tasked with chipping Wake before releasing into a pattern. They'll do the same thing on the other side with Gronkowski or Chandler and Vernon.
5dice said:
Or even switch Vollmer to RT back if it is that bad.
Of course it's a mismatch. But Greg Hardy was also eating Solder and Cannon's lunch until the pats adjusted and he ran out of gas getting chipped by a TE then dealing with a LT on every play. I trust the Pats to try to do enough to slow Wake down while giving Brady the 2 or so seconds he needs to find an open guy. We keep hearing about how such and such a defense will slow down the Pats and while certain teams made things hard on the offense, at the end of the day they dropped 30+ on all of them. I respect the Dolphins for sure, don't think otherwise. But until a team actually stops the Patriots offense, I am going to believe in them.sodenj5 said:While this may be true, Cam Wake might be the hottest pass rusher on the planet the last two weeks. He has been eating RTs alive. If you don't think that Wake vs Flemming is a major matchup problem, you're in for a shock tomorrow.
Last year's Pats held opponents to under 15 points 5 times, and 20 points or fewer 9 times. Through six games this year, it's under 15 once and 20 or less twice. Even with a turnover or two, it's hard to imagine this defense holding a decent offense to less than two touchdowns. I hope it happens, but I would put the over/under on Dolphins points in the 17-20 range.NickEsasky said:The game will be a struggle but I still think the Patriots will take it at home. Everyone wants to cite the Dolphins being able to get pressure on brady as the deciding factor, but both the Cowboys and Jets got to Brady often early in the game and the Patriots still put up 30 on both teams. So even when teams get pressure, the Pats o-line seems to make the necessary adjustments and the team still scores a ton. I think that same thing holds true this week and the Pats win say 31-24. If Tannehill throws a couple picks though, there is a chance the Pats win closer to something like 34-10.
With no Mariota, those are the two worst offenses in the league.C4CRVT said:Two really good games against the Titans and Texans have moved them from being a putrid D to a middle of the pack D.
I think Miller and Landry are the guys BB focuses on taking away. This will likely be the game where their new found dedication to the run might be put to the test. If they go down by 7 or 10, will they continue to feed Miller or will they fall back into the pass happy trap? It's easy to run the ball up 35 in the first half.pdaj said:To piggy-back on some other peoples' points -- if Tannehill is consistently faced with 3rd-and-7+, this game's not going to be close. The Pats' front 7 will feast.
I agree with Sod' -- similarly to the Jets' game, the Pats will look to take away Miller. For that reason, Miami will have to either have success in the ground or simulate a "ground game" creatively, via screens, quick passes, etc. I expect RT to take some early shots down the field, also.
pdaj said:Cameron, Stills, Jennings, Parker, Sims. The options are there. We'll see just how good Lazor can be this week.
BernieRicoBoomer said:Well, despite losing big in the last match up with the Pats he did hit Wallace for 50 at one point and 32 for a sweet one handed TD.
No, that one was in 2013...the two from last year were all in the air.Trlicek's Whip said:If this is the play you are referring to, Tanny is on the Pats' 48 yard line when he throws, and Wallace catches it around the Pats' 25 before running virtually untouched the rest of the way after the catch.
As said upthread (or in the other Dolphins' thread), the huge priority in containing Landry, Cameron and their other spark plugs on offense is limiting YAC with sound tackling.
Clears Cleaver said:Tannehill is still amongst worst on third down in the league. If that is not better tonight they won't compete for 4Qs
BernieRicoBoomer said:No, that one was in 2013...the two from last year where all in the air.
Edit: That one sucked too though, and I agree with your point.
Trlicek's Whip said:
Google-fu + NFL clips = bad times.
I get the sense that the Jets game plan from last Sunday can be well applied in tonight's game. If MIA's offensive weapons past Miller, Landry, and Cameron are deeper than the Jets' corps (Decker was solid but past him no one was scary or consistent), there will be mayhem.
sodenj5 said:
I wouldn't even list Cameron in the top 3. Landry, Miller, and Matthews run this offense. While Landry gets most of the targets, Matthews leads the team in yards and is second in the league in DVOA. He's having a breakout year. Cameron and Kenny Stills are secondary options. Parker could be a wild card in the red zone, as well as Dion Sims.
Trlicek's Whip said:
It's funny, I wasn't following Cameron too zealously either, but Belichick mentioned him in his "Belestrator" segment on Pats All-Access this week.
Maybe that's the vanilla PR gloss since it's contractual that he's doing those segments and obviously it's not going to disclose his team's granular game plan, but it's presented as a "keys to the game" type stuff for their opponents, and he was very complimentary of Cameron.
ahemNickEsasky said:If Tannehill throws a couple picks though, there is a chance the Pats win closer to something like 34-10.