Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I would say his best case is Dan Uggla hitting with Pedroia's defense.


I think you meant that the last 11 games have looked more like the first 26. This is largely due to fluctuations in home runs, which are rare events. It will be telling to see whether the next 15 games resemble the first 26 or not.

Regardless, the larger question is whether Chavis can adapt. My primary concern isn't just the current trajectory, however, its that Chavis has a glaring weakness for high fastballs in the strike zone. Until he can demonstrate an ability to make contact with high fastballs, I don't see him adjusting very far.

In any case, you are right that Chavis has demonstrated more predictive value than Dalbec. Much of that value resides in Chavis being able to hit well. However, Dalbec generates value with merely a league average bat.



This is a really good reason not to do anything yet. I don't think trading Chavez nor Dalbec at the deadline would be selling high.
I really hope if JDM leaves (I think it's more likely the Sox ink him to a 4/$100 deal) that they'll address that through better means than Dalbec.

EDIT- I'm not sure who will be FA's that could come close to replacing his bat for $25M per season. And while a lineup with Devers as the future anchor, Betts (at least for one more season), Bogaerts will be pretty dangerous even if Dalbec is his (JDM's) replacement in the lineup (which I highly doubt)..... more likely he'll be (if anything) JBJ's replacement in the lineup and yes, Benintendi's replacement in LF (10D moving to CF).

EDIT2- Only FA's I'm seeing that the Sox could use to address JDM wanting to play elsewhere, opting out and and looking for ridiculous money still....Anthony Rendon? Marcel Ozuna? Josh Donaldson? Puig? Abreu? Castellanos?
 
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Plympton91

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That’s interesting. If Houck and Hernandez can be the bullpen reinforcements instead of trading for them it would be nice.

Feldman with an horrific outing, 3 H, a HBP, and a WP for 2 runs.

On the positive side, this G. Jimenez dude at Lowell, only 19 with a 890 OPS. Like.
 

bosox79

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That's a weird promotion re: Tanner Houck unless he's just been working on stuff in his 2 bullpen appearances, which is very possible.

Also in his first 3 bullpen appearances since moving to the pen, Darwinzon has 3.1 ip, 0 hits, 0bb/5k. I've been hoping for awhile now that the move to the pen would help him repeat his delivery, thus improving his command. We'll see. His last outing he struck out the side.
 

Plympton91

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Brayan Bello, pitcher for Greenville, tonight had 13 K in 6 scoreless innings. He has had an awful season with an ERA over 7 before tonight in 69 innings. But, apparently when he’s good, he’s spectacular.
 

bosox79

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Brayan Bello, pitcher for Greenville, tonight had 13 K in 6 scoreless innings. He has had an awful season with an ERA over 7 before tonight in 69 innings. But, apparently when he’s good, he’s spectacular.
Sometimes guys just have really great games too tho.. With that caveat:

Bello is another guy who saw his velocity jump 2-3 mph. I'm not a pitcher/scout/whatever but I'd guess the increased velocity takes some time to get used to and affects (effects?) control/command some too. Bello had a great season last year in the DSL, with an era of 1.60 in 67.1 ip, 10bb/74k. and a WHIP of .73. That's hard to do in any league. Granted he was pretty old for the DSL at 19 years of age. He had 3 innings in the GCL last year but for the most part, skipped rookie ball all together.

Going further into his numbers this season, hitters are slashing .315/.383/.479 off him with a .398 BAbip. His k% is only 22.1% and his BB% is 8.8%. I'd guess last nights game was just an outlier but maybe it's a sign of things to come.

Either way, It's "funny" how pitching prospects work out. I wonder if it's better for pitchers to add velocity later on in their career because it forces them to learn how to pitch, and it's probably less strain on their arm earlier on. Mata (who is only 2 weeks older than Bello) and Bello are now sitting around 95 at age 20 and we've seen Groome, Espinoza and Kopech's careers get derailed early on by injuries.

When all is said and done, Logan Allen may be the best SP the Redsox traded away.
 

bosox79

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DSL updates
SS Brainer Bonaci cooled off a bit from his hot start but has still been producing. For the season, he's at .344/.414/.480 with 13 sb/6cs. He just turned 17 on 7/9, so he's young even for the DSL. He has had 2 PA against pitchers older than he is.

OF Albert Feliz hit his 7th HR of the season on 7/11. In 35 games, he's slashing .256/.326/.504 with 13bb/41k in 144 PA. He was given $400k in large part because of his power potential and it's already starting to emerge in games and he's only 17.

SP Nixson Munoz continues to dominate DSL hitters, going 6.0 ip, 3 hits, 0 er, 0bb/1k. Now at a 1.37 era over 26.2 ip with 2bb/34k.

3b Alex Zapete continues to hit for average but not much else. In 112 PA, he's slashing .337/.375/.404 with 6bb/9k. He's Randall Simon, apparently.

OF Bryan Gonzalez has been in a deep funk the last 15 games: 62 PA, .151/.274/.151 on a .229 BAbip. Now at .263/.362/.458 for the season in 138 PA, 16bb/37k.

Lowell
OF Gilberto Jimenez is slashing .376/.409/.482 in 93 PA with a .449 BAbip, 5bb/17k. Last year in the DSL, he was at .319/.384/.420 in 284 PA. He was signed for only $10k. The guy is a stand out athlete at the very least. Very fast, good range, fast bat. He's just very raw but turned 19 a week ago. He has plenty of time.

Greenville
3b Triston Casas has cooled off over the last week. 32 PA, .074/.219/.111 with 4bb/11k. We'll see how he adjusts now that he's struggling again for the first time since April.

Salem
OF Marcus Wilson is playing a video game over his 42 games, slashing .363/.432/.644 on a .477 BAbip in 155 PA with 12 doubles, 1 triple and 8 HRs. 17bb/43k. For the year: 282 PA, .281/.376/.496 with 36bb/93. He turns 23 on August 15th. I'd like to see him back in Portland again.

Portland
OF Jarren Duran: After getting caught 4 times in his first 6 steal attempts, He is 8/8 since, including 7/7 in the last 10 games. Still not really hitting that much, especially when you factor in his 4/5 game but it's a start. Last 14: 59 PA, .298/.322/.333 with 1bb/15k and a .405 BAbip.

MR Eduard Bazardo: He "struggled" upon promotion in his first 3 games: 3.60 era, 5.0 ip, 4 hits, 5bb/4k but has been dominate his last 3: 1.35 era, 6.2 ip, 4 hits, 1bb/9k. Season to date: 1.88 era, 52.2 ip, 15bb/66k, 0.987 WHIP.

Pawtucket
1b Sam Travis: Kind of amazing he only turns 26 in August. Not that that's particularly young, just that it feels like he's been in the sox system forever. He's having a solid year in AAA this year, slashing .277/.365/437 in 263 PA.
vs RHP: 204 PA, .234/.343/.354
vs LHP: 90 PA, .333/.356/.517

That's pretty much a trend throughout his career. I wonder how and him Ockimey would do as a tandem, though Ockimey has been getting considerably worse as the season goes along and tends to be very hot for a month or two and then cold for a month or two. Kinda like a mini JBJ.
April: .246/.402/.565 in 87 PA
May: .190/.377/.506 in 106 PA (wow!)
June: .205/.308/.410 in 91 PA
July: .100/.206/.233 in 34 PA.


SS Tzu-wei Lin has been pretty terrible this year in AAA, though he's been battling injuries too. In 107 PA, he's slashing .229/.293/.323 and looking more like the 2012-2016 version of himself. I had high hopes for him coming into the year. I still think he can be close to a fringe average hitter. Couple that with plus defense at SS, 2b, 3b and the ability to play the OF spots and you have Brock Holt with a better glove. He still needs to prove he can actually hit though.

MR Bobby Poyner's last 19 games in AAA: 1.73 era, 26.0 ip, 15 hits, 5 er, 9bb/30k, 1 HRA. Exactly 100 BF, so 9% BB%, 30% K%. Of course he has that 3.0 ip, 6 hit, 5 er, 2bb/2k performance at the Majors between that.
He's also not a LOOGY, as he's basically had a reverse split/no split his whole career. So if the Sox are looking for a lefty, he aint it.
This year vs R: .222/.315/.352 in 124 PA, 14bb/33k
This year vs L: .280/.404/.533 in 59 PA, 10bb/13k
Last year vs R: .259/.311/.414 in 191 PA 10bb/43k.
Last year vs L: .259/.299/.402 in 89 PA 4bb/17k.
2017 vs R: .145/.231/.211 in 169 PA, 16bb/59k.
2017 vs L: .250/.257/.397 in 71 PA, 1bb/25k.
2016 vs R: .217/.254/.331 in 180 PA, 8bb/48k.
2016 vs L: .244/.268/.359 in 82 PA, 3bb/14k.
2015 vs R: .328/.349/.525 in 64 PA, 2bb/16k
2015 vs L: .250/.270/.333 in 37 PA, 0bb/6k.

MR Darwinzon Hernandez: Incredibly SSS but the early results are good. Since being moved to a bullpen role this year: 3 games, 3.1 ip, 0 hits, 0 bb, 5k, 10 batters faced.
Last 2 years out of the bullpen: 17 games, 1.96 era, 23.0 ip, 18 hits, 5 er, 13bb/43k, 0 HRA, 1.44 WHIP. 103 Batters faced. 12.6% BB%, 41.7% K%.

He had another game in the minors this year where he pitched 4.2 ip, 4 hits, 4er, 4bb/8k but that was piggy backing a returning Brian Johnson who pitched for the first time in a month so I removed it.
 

RoDaddy

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7 dingers by Feliz is already very impressive for the DSL. I'm not sure what the home run record is for a Sox DSL affiliate, but I wonder if he's closing in

I'm pretty sold on Bonaci and now find myself hoping he'll grow a few more inches (he just turned 17) more than anything else!

Just checked in on the minor league boxes and looks like another good performance by Mata

Lots of good discussion about Dalbec. Personally, I think he's a solid big league prospect in large part because of his OBP in addition to the prodigious power. He's up to .375 OBP right now despite a low average, and this has been trending upwards during his minor league career. I believe Plympton pointed out his improved BB/SO ratio. Someone projected him at .300 OBP if he makes the bigs but I think it will be much higher, and make him a decent prospect even for a first division team like the Sox when combined with probably 30+ dingers and good defense wherever he plays
 

bosox79

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Yeah, Bryan Mata is a machine. 6.0 ip, 4 hits 2 er, 1bb/8k. 1 HRA. Ward was pulled early in Salem though. 2.0 ip, 2 hits, 2er, 2bb/5k. 45 pitches. Maybe planned.

Re Feliz: For reference, last year's DSL1 team hit 8 HRs combined in both 2017 and 2018. On the other hand, the DSL2 team had 17 year old Danny Diaz hit 6 HRs in 113 PA last year.

In 2013, 17 year old Victor Acosta had 8 HRs in 264 PA. That's the most HR a Redsox player has hit in the DSL since at least 2005. I couldn't find stats predating that.

edit: Also, Darwinzon Hernandez wasn't very good today. Came in to a 3-3 game in the top of the 8th and went 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 1er, 1bb, 1k, 1 hbp.
 
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simplicio

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Stephen Scott, 10th round selection this year as a senior out of Vandy, has started off the first 4 games of his career playing LF in Lowell with a .571/.600/.786 line with three doubles.

Also in the last week Nick Decker has whacked his way out of an increasingly mediocre line with his first 4 career HR in the last 5 games.

Antoni Flores has finally started hitting and walking lately too. .447 OBP in July vs .244 in June.
 

Plympton91

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Bello followed up his otherworldly performance with another very solid 6 IP, 1 R, 1BB, 6 K outing.

And Houck pitches two clean innings for Pawtucket.
 

bosox79

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Over his last 82 PA, Josh Ockimey is hitting .118/.268/.235 with a .158 BAbip. 13bb/28k. Over his last 256 PA, .175/.324/.398. Ouch.

Ignoring his first outing (0.1 ip, 6 er, 3h, 2bb/1k) in relief, Tanner Houck: 4 games, 5.0 ip, 3h, 0er, 3bb/3k.

Since returning to AAA, Poyner: 10 games, 1.26 era, 14.1 ip, 6h, 4bb/18k. .128/.189/.191 against. Always wanted this guy to get more of a chance but I get it.

Bobby Dalbec is in somewhat of a small slump too, but still getting on base. Last 15 games: 64 PA, .204/.391/.245, .238 BAbip but with only 7k and 12bb. That's encouraging. I worry a lot of his walks will turn into strikeouts at the major league level tho.

OF Marcus Wilson was finally promoted back to Portland a little over a week ago. Since the promotion, 29 PA, .286/.448/.667 on a .235 BAbip. 5bb/3k. Over his last 184 PA across A/AA: .353/.435/.647, 22bb/46k. 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HRs. For the year, he is now at .281/.383/.510 in 311 PA. 41bb/96k. The guy is still just 22 years old. Wouldn't it be something if we ended up getting something of real significant value for Blake Swihart? One can dream.

Denyi Reyes went 7.0 ip, 4h, 0er, 1bb/7k in his last start. His last 10 starts: 3.09 era, 64.0 ip, 52h, 12bb/48k. .219/.262/.367 against. Last 4 starts: 1.93 era, 28.0 ip, 20h, 3bb/13k, .196/.234/.294 against.

Mata had a meh start his last time out, 4.0 ip, 7 hits, 3er, 2bb/6k. Since joining Portland: 5.03 era, 19.2 ip, 23 hits, 8bb/24k. The strikeouts are encouraging.

Casas busted out of his mini slump. Over the last 6 games, 28 PA, he's slashing .318/.464/.591 with 2 HRs, 2k/6bb. .278 BAbip.

Over his last 160 PA, Brandon Howlett is hitting .307/.428/.512 (.424 BAbip) with 26bb/42k. 15 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR. For the year, he's now at a respectable .261/.366/.405 for a 19 year old in Greenville. His BAbip for the year is .374 though.

Catcher Alan Marrero has turned back into a pumpkin, hitting .139/.235/.208 in his last 81 PA with 9bb/30k.

On the flip side, since June 1st, 4th round pick Catcher Kole Cottam is hitting .295/.393/.476 in his last 122 PA with 13bb/26k.

Last year's 2nd round pick, 19 year old Nick Decker is now hitting .269/.355/.551 for the year in 94 PA in Lowell. His last 33 PA: .423/.531/1.000 with 5 HR, 6bb/5k.

Bryan Gonzalez hit his 6th HR a few days ago. Him and Feliz will be interesting to watch next year.
 

RoDaddy

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Double ouch for Ockimey, the only o-fer tonight in a 21 hit Pawsox attack - plus 4 SOs and 10 LOB!

Duran Duran 6 for his last 11. It's sad that I'm citing only a 3 game stretch but I'm desperate for some life from him

There was a DSL buzz for a while but that has died down some, and Cannon and Lugo are off to slow starts. Throw in Duran's recent struggles and Dalbec having trouble getting out of AA and a lot of the farm looks mediocre these days. Hate to say it but it's kind of an overall reminder of our low rated system
 

SydneySox

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That last is a good point; in a vacuum we can get excited about some of these guys but in the greater context, would it be true to say many other farm systems would be relatively stocked with similar levels of players? ie how many Duran and Dalbecs are out there?
 

bosox79

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That last is a good point; in a vacuum we can get excited about some of these guys but in the greater context, would it be true to say many other farm systems would be relatively stocked with similar levels of players? ie how many Duran and Dalbecs are out there?
75-100. They'd probably rank around 150-200, but if you assume pitchers make up half that list so it would leave you with 75-100 positional prospects as good or better than those 2. Maybe I'm being harsh and they actually rank better.

Casas is on another level, but it gives the sox 3 prospects at Dalbec's level or better. If every team has 3, that's 90 right there.
 

bosox79

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IOW, our farm system is trash. On the plus side, there's some talent at the lower levels so it could be in a bit better shape in a few years. 2018 is also looking like a pretty good draft in the early going. The average team should have 3ish top 100 prospects. The Sox will probably have 1.
 

bosox79

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Bello followed up his otherworldly performance with another very solid 6 IP, 1 R, 1BB, 6 K outing.

And Houck pitches two clean innings for Pawtucket.
6.0 ip, 4 hits, 1er, 1bb/6k yesterday. Last 3: 18.0 ip, 15 hits, 2 er, 1bb/25k.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Not the kind of guy we usually talk about in these discussions, but Chris Owings is hitting really well at Pawtucket. Makes me wonder what set of circumstances would lead him to Boston - you’d need an injury and an open 40-man spot, I guess?
 

chawson

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Not the kind of guy we usually talk about in these discussions, but Chris Owings is hitting really well at Pawtucket. Makes me wonder what set of circumstances would lead him to Boston - you’d need an injury and an open 40-man spot, I guess?
Owings is not nothing, and his solid play in the month since we grabbed him probably helped smooth the decision to DFA Nuñez. If they could fix whatever spiked his K rate the last few years he could be useful as a sort of RHH version of Holt. He’s only 27 and a plus defender everywhere but short.

How he gets on the 40-man is a good question, but since there’s gonna be trade chatter the next few days, 2017 Chris Owings is not a drastically different asset than Chavis.
 

Plympton91

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Owings is not nothing, and his solid play in the month since we grabbed him probably helped smooth the decision to DFA Nuñez. If they could fix whatever spiked his K rate the last few years he could be useful as a sort of RHH version of Holt. He’s only 27 and a plus defender everywhere but short.

How he gets on the 40-man is a good question, but since there’s gonna be trade chatter the next few days, 2017 Chris Owings is not a drastically different asset than Chavis.
WTH? You have a serious case of “grass is greener” disease.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
How he gets on the 40-man is a good question, but since there’s gonna be trade chatter the next few days, 2017 Chris Owings is not a drastically different asset than Chavis.
Well, first of all, it ain't 2017, and secondly, no, not drastically different other than being a 25-year-old in his fourth full major league season sporting an 85 wRC+, as opposed to a 23-year-old rookie sporting a 102. Owings is certainly a better and more versatile defender than Chavis, but his little AAA outburst notwithstanding, he has a very well-established level of offensive ability, and it is that of a backup catcher. Chavis probably doesn't have a ton of trade value, but Owings almost certainly has next to none.
 

chawson

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Look, it’s not that I’m wild about Owings, and I’m definitely not saying he’s any sort of trade asset. I just think our Dan Uggla clone might be more fungible than we think.

Since Chavis’s welcoming party ended 5/5, he’s hit .243/.304/.395. That’s 204th out of 235 MLB players in that period, a shade above Ian Kinsler’s season and without the good defense. He’s also got the tenth highest K rate in that period. And I don’t want to adjudicate it here, but he may have been a PED guy.

The Marlins coveted Will Middlebrooks badly in 2012-13. Stanton was off the table, but they might have parted with a Top 10 prospect, a group that included Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto and Heaney. I could be wrong, but I feel like I see more parallels to that situation than most here.
 

Plympton91

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Does that mean Chavis is going to need vision correction but refuse to wear contacts or glasses?

Where does Chavis rank relative to other players if you also take out their 20 best games of the season?
 

bosox79

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Cross posting some stuff:
I don't get why there isn't more hype around Bryan Mata. When he came into the league at 18, he was sitting around 92 and topping out at 94. Now his fastball is sitting at 95, topping out at 98 and he added a slider this year that he's taken a natural affinity to. He dominated the Carolina league despite being the youngest player in the league to start the year.

How much did adding a slider help him you ask?
2019 vs LHB: 144 PA, .267/.324/.359, .359 BAbip vs RHB: .194/.294/.226, .257 BAbip
2018 vs LHB: 174 PA, .310/.480/.380, .368 BAbip vs RHB: .145/.298/.177, .209 BAbip
2017 vs LHB: 155 PA, .257/.325/.350, .333 BAbip vs RHB: .260/.341/.353, .339 BAbip
2016 vs LHB: 092 PA, .301/.370/.386, .373 BAbip, vs RHB: .207/.268/.286, .287 BAbip

He's probably going to start next year in AAA, where he will still be 20 years old until May 3rd. His numbers vs RHB since 2018 are comical.

Jarren Duran's last 8 games: 35 PA, .455/.471/.515, .571 BAbip. Brings his Portland line to .250/.308/.397 in 211 PA, 13bb/50k with 15sb/6cs on a .338 BAbip.

Bobby Dalbec's last 44 games: 181 PA, .201/.359/.368, .242 BAbip, 29bb/44k. His Three true outcomes % for the year is 48.2%.

Looks like Marcus Wilson may have finally cooled off going 0/6 with 5k his last 2 games.

Denyi Reyes pitched last night: 6.0 ip, 7 hits, 3r/2er, 0bb/7k.
First 8 starts: 41.0 ip, 5.49 era, 43 hits, 19bb/32k, .264/.339/.417 against. WHIP of 1.512. 17.5% K%, 10.4% BB%
Last 12 starts: 76.0 ip, 2.84 era, 62 hits, 13bb/59k, .219/.258/.357 against. WHIP of 0.987. 19.7% K%, 4.3% BB%. He has gone at least 6 innings in all of these starts. 7.0 twice and 8 once.
Last 6 starts: 40.0 ip, 1.80 era, 30 hits, 4bb/24k. .203/.234/.297 against. WHIP of 0.850. 15.6% K%, 2.6% BB%. The two times he pitched 7.0 innings and the one time he pitched 8 came in this 6 game stretch.

Career: 21.3% K%, 3.7% BB%. It'll be interesting to see how he fares in the majors because his stuff is well below average and none of his pitches are better than average. It probably won't end well but there's always Brad Radke to dream on. I think he has an outside chance at Boston this year. We'll definitely see him in some capacity next season barring injury/trade.

Also if you are excited about Chris Owings, why not Chad De La Guerra? Since returning off the DL, he's hitting .282/.362/.476 in 47 PA, which is actually much worse than his season line do date of .316/.390/.572 in 211 PA with 21bb/54k and 10 HR. He's also been a pretty decent hitter since 2017 minus his time in AAA last year after promotion in which he was dreadful (.137/.158/.205 in 76 PA).

Fun (not fun for him) Josh Ockimey stats:
1 for his last 27 with 5bb/11k in 32 PA, and 3/42 with 8bb/16k in 51 PA. In the month of July, he is slashing .100/.229/.183, .143 BAbip with 9bb/24k in 70 PA.
His last 70 games: 270 PA, .168/.311/.377, .198 BAbip, 45bb/85k. That includes May where he was "good" slashing .190/.377/.506.
vs LHP: .90 PA, .081/.233/.243, 14bb/28k.
--
Last 48 games: 179 PA, .145/.263/.285, .189 BAbip, 23bb/59k.
First 43 games: 175 PA, .239/.411/.590, .260 BAbip, 38bb/46k.

Ouch.

Tanner Houck's struggled since moving to the pen: 7 games, 9.82 era, 7.1 ip, 11 hits, 8bb/5k. .344/.500/.438 against, BAbip of .407.

The Australian Daniel McGrath who seems to have been in the Sox system forever, is having a pretty good year in AA at age 25: 1.46 era, 74.0 ip, 42 hits, 2 HR, 34bb/71.
His last 7 starts. 38.2 ip, 0.00 era, 13 hits, 1 r/0 er, 16bb/39k. .108/.213/.108 against. 260 BAbip. Ignoring his AAA outing, he hasn't allowed an earned run in AA over 46.0 ip. The last earned run he gave up in AA goes back to 5/28 when he allowed an inside the park HR. He had been pitching mostly in the bullpen but has made 6 straight starts. The inside the Park HR was also the last extra base hit he has given up in AA. That is 156 BF without allowing an extra base hit.

As a starter: 9 games, 0.55 era, 48.2 ip, 24 hits, 5r/3er, 0 HRA, 25bb/45k.
As a reliever: 12 games, 3.20 era, 25.2 ip, 18 hits, 9r/9er, 2 HRA, 9bb/26k.

Thad Ward returned after missing a start (possibly scheduled) and went 5.0 ip, 5 hits, 1 er, 2bb/4k. It brings his Salem line to 6 games, 1.91 era, 28.1 ip, 24 hits, 14bb/34k. Ignoring his first start in Salem: 1.88 era, 24.0 ip, 21 hits, 7bb/32k. For the year at both A/A+, 1.97 era, 100.2 ip, 75 hits, 3 HR, 39bb/121k. 29.1% K%, 9.4% BB%. Outside of him, Salem is really depressing.

In today's GCL game, 18 year old LHP Jorge Rodriguez went 5.0 ip, 1 hit, 0r, 0bb/12k. Last 3 games, 15.0 ip, 6 hits, 0r, 2bb/20k. For the year: 7 games, 2.35 era, 30.2 ip, 22 hits, 6bb/37k. Also 2nd round Matthew Lugo is currently 3/4 with a triple. He's now at .288/.346/.452 in 81 PA. Early returns looking good.

C Kole Cottam went 3/4 with a HR and a double today, bringing his season line to .261/.380/.425.

Still don't know anything at all abou Nixson Munoz but he continues to mow down DSL hitters. 9 games, 1.45 era, 37.1 ip, 33 hits, 3bb/42k. .231/.248/.301 against. K% 28.2%, BB% of 2.%.
 
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bosox79

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Does that mean Chavis is going to need vision correction but refuse to wear contacts or glasses?

Where does Chavis rank relative to other players if you also take out their 20 best games of the season?
As someone who tracks minor league performance, I am constantly looking at arbitrary dates because in the minors, players can make drastic improvements in a short period of time. This has shown me that you can manipulate numbers to prove an agenda.


Last 38 games: .277/.329/.454 in 152 PA
Season: .260/.331/.453 in 344 PA
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If JDM opts out and leaves, isn't Chavis the obvious solution for the DH spot long-term?

If JDM doesn't opt out or does and re-signs, Chavis should probably be dealt while his value is at peak level in the offseason, unless they really think he's a good answer at 1B moving forward.
 

chawson

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As someone who tracks minor league performance, I am constantly looking at arbitrary dates because in the minors, players can make drastic improvements in a short period of time. This has shown me that you can manipulate numbers to prove an agenda.


Last 38 games: .277/.329/.454 in 152 PA
Season: .260/.331/.453 in 344 PA
What is arbitrary about a player’s first two weeks of games? Punishing breaking balls low and inside is part of Chavis’s skill set, and after an aggressive promotion, it naturally took a couple weeks for opposing pitchers and managers to fold that information into how they attacked him.
 

Plympton91

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That performance by Daniel McGrath at Portland is extraordinary. He’s either become a totally different prospect or is on one of the biggest streaks of good luck baseball has ever seen.
 

bosox79

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What is arbitrary about a player’s first two weeks of games? Punishing breaking balls low and inside is part of Chavis’s skill set, and after an aggressive promotion, it naturally took a couple weeks for opposing pitchers and managers to fold that information into how they attacked him.
It's not any more arbitrary than his last 38 games where he's producing at his season average level. He's also had a BAbip close to .400 during that time so it's completely unsustainable but that's what he's done. Who's to say he hasn't made adjustments since then? Why are you allowed to eliminate those games at the beginning of the year because pitchers hadn't adjusted yet but don't eliminate the stretch of games where Chavis hadn't adjusted yet?

First 14 games: .354/.466/.771 in 54 PA
Next 31 games: .205/.276/.328 in 134 PA
Next 38 games: .277/.327/.454 in 152 PA

Why are those 31 games more important than the 14 other than it's a bigger sample? Why are they more important that the 38 or the whole season sample size? Is he not allowed an adjustment period? When/if he gets hot again and pitchers eventually adjust, do those stats count? He's a rookie.
 

SydneySox

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I'm buying my Danny McGrath jersey now.

His song, fyi, with a nod to another Australian sportsperson, is "Ooo, Ah, Dan McGrath, I say ooo ah Dan McGrath".
 

bosox79

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So I googled since I was curious. Here's an article. https://www.pressherald.com/2019/07/25/mcgrath-extends-scoreless-streak-but-sea-dogs-lose-in-10th/

There's about a billion articles on it but I can't find out what the record is for AA. 46.0 may very well be it. I imagine it has to be a Portland record. Really curious now. It really is remarkable. 46 innings. 1r, 0 er.

He's given up 5 LD over this stretch. 3 were in one game, 2 games ago. What? 156 BF... 5 LD. 5.

edit: Found it. 57.0 innings by Brad Thompson in 2003/2004 for the Cardinals affiliate the Tennessee Smokies. Article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/21/sports/baseball-minor-league-report-scoreless-streak-ends-at-57-innings.html
 
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oumbi

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Thus far in Portland this year, McGrath has pitched 73.1 innings, let up 44 hits, struck out 71 batters, and walked 34. ERA is 1.47 with a WHIP of 1.04.

He did pitch 3.1 innings Pawtucket in June, and did so poorly. Three earned runs on 7 hits.

EDIT: Here is his write up from SoxProspects. I don't know what he has done to improve his pitches, but based on the write up he is pretty poor. Something must have happened since they wrote this.

Fastball: 86-88 mph. Fastball is on the straight side. Lacks life, struggles to miss bats. Below-average pitch.

Slider: 80-82 mph. Short, horizontal break. Feel and confidence. Average pitch.

Curveball: 75-77 mph. Loopy 1-to-7 break. Doesn’t consistently snap off. Below-average pitch.

Changeup: 74-77 mph. Pitch shows drop at its best. Thrown with deceptive arm speed and has shown the ability to pull the string on it down and out of the zone when ahead in the count. Potential fringe-average pitch.

Career Notes: Signed out of Australia in 2012. Debuted in 2013, progressed slowly through the system. Converted to the bullpen in 2017. Plays in the Australian Baseball League each winter.
 

bosox79

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For people who are actually interested, Daniel McGrath is pitching tonight.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Dalbec 2/4 last night. Just got a single today and scored on an utter 3R bomb by Josh Ockimey who just crept over .200 with that one. Rusney also went yard, just into the LF berm.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Dalbec has now struck out thrice, dropping his avg to .375. Tilt pitched a scoreless 8th, managing to work around two HBPs and a single, helped by a very close force at home.
 

bosox79

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Duran went 3/4 with 2 doubles today. He had a 12 game hitting streak snapped yesterday. Including today, over his last 14 games: .417/.422/.483 with a BAbip of .521. 1bb/14k. 7sb/2cs It's a start. Most of his success to date has been fueled by high BAbip though.
 

Plympton91

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My personal scouting network reports Song mostly in mid-90s last night, topping out at 96 on the stadium gun.