I've thought about this a lot, and there are 2 scenarios. One is trying to maximize lottery ping-pong balls and ignoring developing trade assets on the roster, the other option is the opposite. This year there isnt a Lebron coming out, so maybe you have a 25% chance of getting a player that has an 80% chance to be an 8 on a scale of 1 to 10. Would you rather do that or have a 5% chance at the top pick, plus you spent the year developing assets and now have 3 players now have some significant value that could be used for trades? Its a little more complex of a decision than it seems
As for the later, this is very true. Going back to the first Spurs title, the main stars are Duncan (#1 overall), Shaq (1) Heat & Lakers, Kobe (13), KG (5), Dirk (9), Lebron (1), Wade (5) The only title that didnt need a top flight talent was the Pistons but they had Sheed who was the #4 pick. Most importantly, odds are you need a top notch superstar so you either need a top 5 pick in the right year, or you need to acquire a star like the Heat trading for Shaq, or the Heat signing Lebron