And praise be to Allah that he didn't, because Boston "winning" the #8 seed by a game that year culminated in the Garnett trade, which wouldn't have happened if the Celtics had successfully completed the tank job.
Draft Lottery Game Thread
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
That's a lot like asking what's better for a rookie QB - to go out on the field and get beat up or to sit and hold a clipboard for a couple of years.
The problem with playing a lot of minutes on a bad team - as HRB has noted in the past - that while the player can figure out which of his moves work and which doesn't, it's also pretty likely that the player doesn't learn the good habits of moving without the ball, making proper defensive rotations, communicating on defense, etc. That's why young teams have a hard time putting it together and taking the next step without some veterans to instill a certain culture.
The average margin of victory in the NBA I'd guess is somewhere around 11 points and I bet that half the games are decided by less than 10 points. That's five baskets over the course of a game. Getting guys to take consistently good shots; getting guys to make consistent rotations; getting guys to run the correct plays on a consistent basis can really impact winning. Look at how many times the Wiz threw the ball to the spectators in the courtside seats last night. Getting those possessions back could have decided the game in their favor.
Simmons on the lottery: https://theringer.com/2017-nba-draft-lottery-karma-rankings-bill-simmons-c912bc51c4f9
Very transparent attempt at the reverse jinx putting the Celtics at the bottom...
I analyzed a bunch of scenarios. As they reveal the draft picks in descending order, every team they skip must have gotten lucky and jumped into the top 3. This is obviously bad for Boston because it increases the chances they drop to #4. However, if they reveal the #4 pick and it isn't Boston, it is mathematically better for Boston to be in the top 3 with the longshots than the teams with good odds. If the top three are, for example, Boston, Miami and Dallas their chances of getting the #1 pick is better than if it's Boston, Phoenix and LA.
This smells like a variation on the Monty Hall problem. Thanks for looking closer at it. I was thinking about this earlier, but no further than "nothing matters for us until they announce the #4 pick." Obviously not quite the case.
20th anniversary of the Duncan lottery and 10th anniversary of the Durant lottery so I'm feeling not so great about tonight.
Very sobering. My hopes are minimal. I've talked myself into being happy with a guy like Tatum at 4.
Lakers pick is top 3 protected? and NO? any other stipulations with lottery picks? Sixers can swap with Kings too.
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It's not, though. By the time we start learning information, the result is already determined. The expectation for outcome improves, from an audience perspective, but the actual outcome is fixed and unchanging.
Yes, of course, but since we don't know the outcome, we get to exoerience it just as it was experienced in the back room, so those odds are relevant.
Just spent a few min reviewing past Celtics lottery picks. While the lottery balls have not been kind, the bigger story is that the Cs have happened to draw lottery picks in some very weak drafts. A column posted on espn.com today nominated Ron Mercer as their worst lottery pick. He actually better than anyone drafted after him not named Tracy McGrady (Boston probably got the 3rd and 4th best players in that draft with Chauncey Billups and Mercer).
There's a similar theme to other drafts (2007 et al)- we tend to remember the big prizes that got away, but they've tended to draft in some very weak years and haven't left that much on the board.
There's a similar theme to other drafts (2007 et al)- we tend to remember the big prizes that got away, but they've tended to draft in some very weak years and haven't left that much on the board.
Yeah if the Celts had won the lotto in 2007, they would have drafted Oden, never would have won a title, the Nets trade would never have happened, etc. Biggest blessing ever.
I thought Ainge was in love with Durant.
Didn't he make some headlines by sitting right by Durant's family.
I could be wrong, but I thought Danny was one of the guys that may have drafted Durant at #1.
Edit - he got fined.
http://www.espn.com/nba/news/story?id=2803589
Right. Who knows. I think the point is it is hard to say they'd be better off if they had won. They won a title, nearly won another, and are set up so well right now. I wouldn't change it retroactively for a shot at KD. He might have left without a title like he did OKC anyway.
I remember some people being disappointed we missed out on KVH too but that wouldn't have changed much.
KVH had a better career than I remembered. 16 ppg, 6.8 rpg, career 36% from 3. He would have been really good in today's NBA IMO
Tick, tick, tick...
So excited and nostalgic for you guys. For many, many years (Warriors fan since '86 or so) this day was the highlight of my hoops-rooting existence (though it only once yielded a #1, which the Ws promptly bungled by picking Joe Smith over Garnett or even Rasheed Wallace).
Let's go Celtics! And f*ck the Lakers!
So excited and nostalgic for you guys. For many, many years (Warriors fan since '86 or so) this day was the highlight of my hoops-rooting existence (though it only once yielded a #1, which the Ws promptly bungled by picking Joe Smith over Garnett or even Rasheed Wallace).
Let's go Celtics! And f*ck the Lakers!
I don't know the rules behind when Boston has to officially swap but I would have been great if the Celts made the Nets stand up there for this pick then swap tomorrrow
Philly gets the 1 to set up a new contender in the east and as consolation for not having two top 4 picks.
Lakers get the two and Ball.
Celts get the three so Philly doesn't leave us behind and there's a classic rivalry revived narrative in a few seasons.
Just kidding. We're picking 4th of course.
Lakers get the two and Ball.
Celts get the three so Philly doesn't leave us behind and there's a classic rivalry revived narrative in a few seasons.
Just kidding. We're picking 4th of course.
Nah--there's 4/5 really good players in this draft. I want Fultz bad, but there's more talent there...
On now. What’s with the draft prospect interviews and analysis?
Do that on draft night.
SPIN THE MACHINE. PULL THE BALLS!
Do that on draft night.
SPIN THE MACHINE. PULL THE BALLS!