Drew Brees and his place in history...

mt8thsw9th · Jul 27, 2015

I would never compare them 1:1. Brees has a pretty sizable dome/outdoors split. Not to say he's not elite, he's just not on their level. There's no shame in being a tier below those argued as the GOAT.

Silverdude2167 · Jul 27, 2015

Just looking at the stats, it is the INT's that take Brees out of the conversation.
Turnovers are so important in close games that it is impossible to ignore.

Even if we want to knock Brady for taking more sacks, the first 4th quarter TD drive started with a sack. If that were an interception, the chances that the Pats then come back are miniscule.

pappymojo · Jul 27, 2015

So glad he didnt sign with Miami.

WayBackVazquez · Jul 27, 2015

He's the Todd Helton of the NFL.

DJnVa · Jul 27, 2015

WayBackVazquez said:
He's the Todd Helton of the NFL.

And Manning is the Larry Walker.

WayBackVazquez · Jul 27, 2015

bakahump said:
The Dome and SD weather really has no defense and is a valid point. Of course Marino (who for a long time was considered the gold standard) got the benny of Miami weather and PManning of course had his dome for the bulk.

It's not just the dome. It's fairly easy and defensible to discount his dome numbers some while still understanding that he is an elite QB in half his games. The problem is that he is NOT an elite QB for the other half of the season. IMO, being an all-time great is more than just averaging numbers. Consistency matters.

(And Marino was basically the same QB at home and on the road. Bad example.)

DJnVa · Jul 27, 2015

Brees QB rating outside is 90.0. Still very good. Peyton's is 95.8 and Brady's is 95.3.

FWIW, Brady has a higher rating in a dome than either of them, but has only played 12 games there.

WayBackVazquez · Jul 27, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Brees QB rating outside is 90.0. Still very good. Peyton's is 95.8 and Brady's is 95.3.

FWIW, Brady has a higher rating in a dome than either of them, but has only played 12 games there.

90.0 is very good historically, but not in this era. It's slightly above average.

ivanvamp · Jul 27, 2015

Brees isn't Brady. But when the Patriots play the Saints, I'm scared to death that Brees is just going to light them up. Now, that said, here's what he's actually done vs. NE in his career:

3 wins, 1 loss, 64-101 (63.4%), 959 yds, 10 td, 1 int, 123.3 rating

mauf · Jul 27, 2015

Brady's postseason resume is what gets him into the GOAT discussion. Without it, he's just a solid HOFer like Brees.

There's no other time in league history when a guy of Brees's caliber would be only the 4th-best QB in the league. He definitely doesn't get his due.

SumnerH · Jul 27, 2015

bakahump said:
Record
Brees 117-84 (9th all time, Tied with Montana, played for a .500 SD team for 4 years should pass Tarkenton for 6th all time, 3+ years to Marino and Elway)
Brady 160-47 (what can you say...Currently 3rd...probably needs 2 years after Manning retires to pass him, Favre could should fall to him in 3 years)

Not that either's a great measure of QBs, but: you list "Record" but then follow with the rankings for just wins. Brady is by far #1 already by overall record, with a .773 W% (followed by Staubach's .746 and Montana's .713) and 113 more W than L (I believe Peyton is #2 with 102).

EDIT: There are 8 QBs in history (Brees among them) with as many wins as Brady has Wins-losses.

Tangled Up In Red · Jul 27, 2015

It's a real disservice to older era quarterbacks to have current stats comparisons. They'll never stand a chance.

ivanvamp · Jul 27, 2015

Tangled Up In Red said:
It's a real disservice to older era quarterbacks to have current stats comparisons. They'll never stand a chance.

Very true. Dan Marino, if he played in today's NFL, would put up absolutely insane numbers.

SumnerH · Jul 27, 2015

Tangled Up In Red said:
It's a real disservice to older era quarterbacks to have current stats comparisons. They'll never stand a chance.

You just need to pick the right stats. Otto Graham and Sid Luckman are #1 and #2 in Yards/Attempt at 9.0 and 8.4 respectively (#3 is Aaron Rodgers: 8.2).

Graham's only #4 in career TD percentage, though, behind Luckman, Frankie Albert, and Frank Ryan.

Dehere · Jul 27, 2015

Hard to prove this with statistics but I've watched just about every one of Brees's games since he joined the Saints and I think he has thrown a lot of picks in situations were the Saints are trailing and he's made reckless throws trying to spark a comeback. He could be fairly criticized for trying to do to much by himself at times but it reflects his general attitude that the team's fortunes rest largely on his shoulders. He took ownership of that team from his very first practice - famously going into his first Saints huddle and saying "I'm here to lead you to the Super Bowl and anything less than that is disgusting" - and a byproduct of that is that he will make some crazy high-risk/high-reward throws if a game is getting away from him.

In his best seasons - 2009 and 2011 - Brees played the position better than anyone else that I've seen. I don't think he's had enough great seasons or enough championships to really be in the GOAT conversation. The question that would be more favorable to Brees would be: if you could take any QB at his peak for one season, who would you take? I think I'd take 2011 Drew Brees over anybody.

tims4wins · Jul 27, 2015

Dehere said:
Hard to prove this with statistics but I've watched just about every one of Brees's games since he joined the Saints and I think he has thrown a lot of picks in situations were the Saints are trailing and he's made reckless throws trying to spark a comeback. He could be fairly criticized for trying to do to much by himself at times but it reflects his general attitude that the team's fortunes rest largely on his shoulders. He took ownership of that team from his very first practice - famously going into his first Saints huddle and saying "I'm here to lead you to the Super Bowl and anything less than that is disgusting" - and a byproduct of that is that he will make some crazy high-risk/high-reward throws if a game is getting away from him.

In his best seasons - 2009 and 2011 - Brees played the position better than anyone else that I've seen. I don't think he's had enough great seasons or enough championships to really be in the GOAT conversation. The question that would be more favorable to Brees would be: if you could take any QB at his peak for one season, who would you take? I think I'd take 2011 Drew Brees over anybody.

It's an interesting discussion, but even in those years, he threw 11 and 14 picks (34 and 46 TDs, respectively). Brady's 50:8 in 2007 was incredible - better than Brees' best year of 46:14. Brady also had a 36:4 season and a 34:8. Both are better than Brees' 34:11 in 2009. So at least from a TD:INT ratio perspective Brady has him beat, easily.

WayBackVazquez · Jul 27, 2015

tims4wins said:
It's an interesting discussion, but even in those years, he threw 11 and 14 picks (34 and 46 TDs, respectively). Brady's 50:8 in 2007 was incredible - better than Brees' best year of 46:14. Brady also had a 36:4 season and a 34:8. Both are better than Brees' 34:11 in 2009. So at least from a TD:INT ratio perspective Brady has him beat, easily.

Yeah, in a span of four consecutive road games in 2011, Brees threw 5 TD and 8 INT. Brady threw 7 road INT in 16 games in 2006 and 2007 combined.

rodderick · Jul 27, 2015

Dehere said:
Hard to prove this with statistics but I've watched just about every one of Brees's games since he joined the Saints and I think he has thrown a lot of picks in situations were the Saints are trailing and he's made reckless throws trying to spark a comeback. He could be fairly criticized for trying to do to much by himself at times but it reflects his general attitude that the team's fortunes rest largely on his shoulders. He took ownership of that team from his very first practice - famously going into his first Saints huddle and saying "I'm here to lead you to the Super Bowl and anything less than that is disgusting" - and a byproduct of that is that he will make some crazy high-risk/high-reward throws if a game is getting away from him.

In his best seasons - 2009 and 2011 - Brees played the position better than anyone else that I've seen. I don't think he's had enough great seasons or enough championships to really be in the GOAT conversation. The question that would be more favorable to Brees would be: if you could take any QB at his peak for one season, who would you take? I think I'd take 2011 Drew Brees over anybody.

Come on dude. I love Brees, but his 2011 season wasn't even the best by a quarterback that year.

NortheasternPJ · Jul 27, 2015

Dehere said:
Hard to prove this with statistics but I've watched just about every one of Brees's games since he joined the Saints and I think he has thrown a lot of picks in situations were the Saints are trailing and he's made reckless throws trying to spark a comeback. He could be fairly criticized for trying to do to much by himself at times but it reflects his general attitude that the team's fortunes rest largely on his shoulders. He took ownership of that team from his very first practice - famously going into his first Saints huddle and saying "I'm here to lead you to the Super Bowl and anything less than that is disgusting" - and a byproduct of that is that he will make some crazy high-risk/high-reward throws if a game is getting away from him.

He's a GUNSLINGER! POW POW POW!

Seriously though Brees is a great QB. I think putting 2011 Drew Brees as your one quarterback isn't dumb, but I'd much rather have a 2007 Brady or a 2011 Rodgers. I'd say 2004 Manning, but that didn't end so well. Manning had a 121 passer rating that year, which is insane.

i guess my question is if you took a guy "for one season" does that include playoffs? We can have a ton of who's the best regular season arguments. If I had one game to win, I definitely wouldn't take Brees in any year for exactly the reasons you stated about his decision making.

Euclis20 · Jul 27, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Brees QB rating outside is 90.0. Still very good. Peyton's is 95.8 and Brady's is 95.3.

FWIW, Brady has a higher rating in a dome than either of them, but has only played 12 games there.

Bonus points for Brady when you realize that nearly all of Manning and Brees' dome games were at home, and nearly all of Brady's dome games were on the road.

maufman said:
Brady's postseason resume is what gets him into the GOAT discussion. Without it, he's just a solid HOFer like Brees.

There's no other time in league history when a guy of Brees's caliber would be only the 4th-best QB in the league. He definitely doesn't get his due.

It isn't just that Brady's postseason resume lifts him solidly above Brees, it's that Brees' postseason resume (or lack thereof) drops him below Brady/Manning/Rodgers. Those guys make the playoffs every damn year. Overall, they have made the postseason an astounding 32 times in 36 seasons (only counting years in which they were the primary starter). Manning last missed the playoffs in year 4, Brady in year 2, Rodgers in year 1 (again, as a starter).

Brees has missed the playoffs 7 times in 13 seasons. He's missed the playoffs nearly twice as often as the three best QBs of the era combined, . More than anything, that's why he's left out of the all-time discussions. When you aren't relevant at the end of the year more than half the time, it's a lot easier to write off your incredible numbers as being dome dependent.

Jnai · Jul 28, 2015

Brees is like Barkley, right? Never legitimately in a GOAT conversation, but might have been the best player in an era not dominated by the actual GOAT.

(not a huge NBA guy and Barkley might be the wrong name, just first that came to mind)

drbretto · Jul 28, 2015

SumnerH said:
Not that either's a great measure of QBs, but: you list "Record" but then follow with the rankings for just wins. Brady is by far #1 already by overall record, with a .773 W% (followed by Staubach's .746 and Montana's .713) and 113 more W than L (I believe Peyton is #2 with 102).

EDIT: There are 8 QBs in history (Brees among them) with as many wins as Brady has Wins-losses.

For funzies:

If Tom Brady's career win% was translated to a baseball season, he'd be 125-37. That's also the probably highest career winning percentage for basically any human in a team sport except for Boston's own Al Spaulding, who played for the Boston Red Stockings during the Ulysses S Grant administration. You know, that guy that won the Civil War. So he probably shouldn't count.

coremiller · Jul 28, 2015

To add some context:

Since he got to New Orleans, Brees has missed the playoff four times: 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014. In three of those years NO went 7-9, and they were 8-8 in the fourth year.

New Orleans' rank in defensive DVOA those four years: 30, 26, 32, 31. It's not impossible to win enough games to make the playoffs with a defense that bad (e.g. New England 2011 and Green Bay 2013, although that GB team was only 8-7-1), but it's close.

2012 should have an additional asterisk, because that was the bountygate year when Sean Payton was suspended for the season.

EDIT: Worth noting too that in another of his missed playoff seasons, 2005, San Diego went 9-7 while playing the hardest schedule in the league by both DVOA and SRS.

Euclis20 · Jul 29, 2015

From 2010-2013, the Pats' D ranked, on average, about 21.5 in defensive DVOA (they averaged 12.75 wins over that stretch). From 2011-2013, the Green Bay D ranked, on average, about 21.3 in defensive DVOA (they averaged 11.5 wins over that stretch). The Colts were 24th in defensive DVOA in 2010 (they finished 10-6), 25th in 2006 (12-4) and 19th in 2004 (12-4).

It's not as bad as the Saints, but the results were far better. Those three consistently dragged below average defenses to home playoff games. Brees can't do that consistently. It's not a huge knock, but (imo) it's why he isn't mentioned among the best of all time like Brady/Manning are, and Rodgers (after a few more years) will be. I see him closer to Tier 2 (Rivers/Roethlisberger/Romo) than I do Brady/Manning/Rodgers.

bakahump said:
Record and "making the playoffs every damn year" are mentioned as "negatives" to Brees. (even if only slight ones).

How much of that is actually Brees fault?
I mentioned in the initial post that Brees played for a ".500 SD team". That team was TERRIBLE (which is why they were able to get Brees in the first place...but I digress...).
He (along with other acquisitions....though I am hard pressed to think of them...) instantly made them .500 or better.

So while i get that Brady and Manning and Rodgers have made their teams better EVERY year and gotten them to the playoffs EVERY year. I think that Brees has made his team better EVERY year....but failed to get into (or go far) in the playoffs EVERY year because he has had some pretty shitty teams.

Am I wrong? Someone who has followed the Saints (and early career Chargers) correct me.

Plus while Brady obviously has been awesome.....some of that Credit needs to go to the organization/HC. Same with Manning and Rodgers. Brees has been hindered (IMHO) in this regard. No fault of his own. He has often made chicken salad......while Brady, Manning and Rodgers were grilling Steaks and Lobsters.

Brees was a big reason for the Chargers turnaround, but so were Gates and Tomlinson, among others. Then they replaced Brees with Rivers, and barely missed a beat. His stats are impressive, but I feel everyone routinely understates how big of an advantage it is to play your home games in a dome (and to a lesser extent, outdoors in warm weather cities). It's why Brady was always than Manning, it's why Rodgers is hands down the best QB playing today, and it's why Brees doesn't deserve to be mentioned with Brady/Manning/Rodgers. As noted above, he's Todd Helton.

coremiller · Jul 29, 2015

Euclis20 said:
From 2010-2013, the Pats' D ranked, on average, about 21.5 in defensive DVOA (they averaged 12.75 wins over that stretch). From 2011-2013, the Green Bay D ranked, on average, about 21.3 in defensive DVOA (they averaged 11.5 wins over that stretch). The Colts were 24th in defensive DVOA in 2010 (they finished 10-6), 25th in 2006 (12-4) and 19th in 2004 (12-4).

It's not as bad as the Saints, but the results were far better. Those three consistently dragged below average defenses to home playoff games. Brees can't do that consistently. It's not a huge knock, but (imo) it's why he isn't mentioned among the best of all time like Brady/Manning are, and Rodgers (after a few more years) will be. I see him closer to Tier 2 (Rivers/Roethlisberger/Romo) than I do Brady/Manning/Rodgers.

Brees was a big reason for the Chargers turnaround, but so were Gates and Tomlinson, among others. Then they replaced Brees with Rivers, and barely missed a beat. His stats are impressive, but I feel everyone routinely understates how big of an advantage it is to play your home games in a dome (and to a lesser extent, outdoors in warm weather cities). It's why Brady was always than Manning, it's why Rodgers is hands down the best QB playing today, and it's why Brees doesn't deserve to be mentioned with Brady/Manning/Rodgers. As noted above, he's Todd Helton.

There's big difference between having a slightly below-average defense, and having a terrible defense, and averaging ranks for other teams over time is misleading. Green Bay's ranks for 2011-2013 were 25, 8, 31. 2013 was a weird year -- although GB did make the playoffs, they won only 8 games and then lost at home in the first round. So 2011 is the only year they were really successful with a terrible defense, and it helped that they played the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. Meanwhile, New England's ranks from 2010-2013 were 21, 30, 21, 20. So 2011 was the only year NE was really successful with a terrible defense.

Of course, Brees has dragged bad defenses to the playoffs. New Orleans made the playoffs in 2006 (defense ranked 22), 2009 (17), 2010(10), 2011 (28), and 2013 (10). Every year the defense wasn't a giant dumpster fire, they made the playoffs, and they made the playoffs some of the time when it was, too.

If the argument against Brees is that he hasn't consistently dragged league-worst defenses to the playoffs, that's an unfair standard, because no one else has either.

The Todd Helton critique also seems overblown to me. We know with park factors in baseball that Coors inflated offense by 15%-25% in Helton's prime (in Helton's best season, 2000, Coors played to a 125 batting park factor). Domes are obviously an advantage, but I don't think anyone believes that the dome passing advantage is of the same magnitude. Does anyone know of a study that tries to determine how big the dome advantage is?

Euclis20 · Jul 29, 2015

I've wondered about your last sentence, and I'm sure that someone has done a study at some point to determine how big of an advantage playing indoors is for an offense. Football suffers from a small sample size that already makes those sort of studies difficult, though.

I don't have much else to add, I just wanted to address GB's 2013 season...twice you've mentioned they only won 8 games that year, discounting their playoff appearance. True, 8-7-1 is about as bad as you can be and still make the playoffs, but that certainly isn't Rodgers' fault. He missed nearly half the year with a shoulder injury, and when he was on the field, led the team to a 6-3 record as a starter (and if we don't count the game in which he got hurt and threw just two passes, his record was 6-2). I'm generally not one for excuses in these situations (as Parcells would say, you are what your record says you are), but I'm not going to blame Rodgers for Green Bay going 2-4-1 with him out.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 29, 2015

coremiller said:
The Todd Helton critique also seems overblown to me. We know with park factors in baseball that Coors inflated offense by 15%-25% in Helton's prime (in Helton's best season, 2000, Coors played to a 125 batting park factor). Domes are obviously an advantage, but I don't think anyone believes that the dome passing advantage is of the same magnitude. Does anyone know of a study that tries to determine how big the dome advantage is?

A couple people have looked at weather effects on passing but they haven't done so very convincingly from a statistical point of view (IMO) and I don't think either specifically quantifies dome versus non-dome.

I can't imagine weather effects as big as 15-25% offensive inflation but I do think the evidence overall suggests that weather effects on passing are fairly meaningful, at least enough to problematize straight-up comparisons between the statistics of a player like Brees (who not only played in a dome but also played in a division in which the other teams had domes or warm weather) and guys like Brady or Roethlisberger (who not only play outdoors but also play in divisions in which all the other teams play outside in colder weather too).

DJnVa · Jul 29, 2015

You're never going to have enough games for the other side of it.

Brady, despite all his dome games being on the road, is better in a dome than Manning is, despite a vast majority of his being home games. However, Brady has played the equivalent of less than one full season in a dome.

Brady's dome numbers extrapolated to a full NFL season: 13.3 wins, 67.3% completion, 35 TD, 12 INT, 4011 yards, 108.9 rating

WayBackVazquez · Jul 29, 2015

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
A couple people have looked at weather effects on passing but they haven't done so very convincingly from a statistical point of view (IMO) and I don't think either specifically quantifies dome versus non-dome.

There's also this one.

Drew Brees and his place in history...

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