Drew v. 2.0

[lambeau]

FWIW, Silverman f/u with Boras on Sunday in Herald had him backing off his X to 3rd idea.
 
New idea: Hanley to third, Drew to Dodgers. Always thinking, that Scott.
 
Next week: Derek to third, Drew to...

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

What in the fuck are you talking about? Even if the Sox were interested in starting the season without a backup at second base, there will be one in Pawtucket which would mean Middlebrooks or Bogaerts could slip over there for a part of a game until the roster move can be made.
 
But, really, there's no non-injury scenario where the team doesn't start the season without a utility infielder who can play second base.

I think we agree in the end. My point, though, was that if you are going to start a year with two starting caliber short stops on the roster, at least one of them has to play other positions. Drew has never played an inning anywhere else, and presently Xander only plays one other position, and not all that effectively it appears.

 

[Drek717]

I think we agree in the end. My point, though, was that if you are going to start a year with two starting caliber short stops on the roster, at least one of them has to play other positions. Drew has never played an inning anywhere else, and presently Xander only plays one other position, and not all that effectively it appears.

They already have WMB working as the emergency 2B.  I'd imagine he'll continue to develop that skill set for the very reason you're outlining this off-season and next spring training.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

 
I agree with pretty much everything until the bolded parts. As to the second, I keep looking for a corner IF trade target who is (1) clearly an upgrade over Carp or WMB, and (2) at all likely to be available at anything close to a reasonable price. I'm not seeing anybody who fits both criteria. Can you point me to a likely candidate?  

You know, I really can't. I guess a LF or RF (e.g. Stanton) might be a better investment. And going back to the Salty thread, McCann may represent the best place for an upgrade. This team has an embarassment of riches (deep depth) going into the 2014 season. Hard to imagine trading/signing someone you can be sure would be much better than Gomes, Carp, Nava, Victorino, JBJ, WMB, X etc. If you go for a stud LF, you are likely keeping Vic in RF and putting JBJ in CF, maximizing value in the OF. The new LF will steal Abs from Gomes, Carp and Nava however, even with Carp and Nava getting some time at 1B with WMB maybe.

I am on my mobile, any power hitting LF's available by trade or FA that would fit with this team?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I am on my mobile, any power hitting LF's available by trade or FA that would fit with this team?

 
Not really.  The best available outfielders are Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, David DeJesus, Jacoby, Curtis Granderson, Corey Hart, and Hunter Pence.  I'd break them down like this.
 
Upgrades over Gomes/Nava:
 
Cruz has the PED cloud hanging heavy over his head.  I'm not sure what to expect out of him next year, but maybe he's worth a one year flier to prove he's effective when clean.  He may well get a longer offer, and Texas could decide to make a qualifying offer as their version of a "make good" deal, meaning the possibility of draft pick compensation.
 
Choo is a better player than Gomes and Nava will be in a platoon, but he's going to cost a draft pick to sign, plus a lengthy enough contract that you are likely going to pay for some decline.  He has "old man" hitting skills which are supposed to age well (high OBP).  I'm not sure I'd want to get into bed for more than three years, though, especially when you consider the loss of a pick as part of the price of acquisition.
 
Hunter Pence will be 31 next season, but fangraphs loves him.  His fWAR is 4.1 but only 0.7 of that is his defense, so he's not terribly skewed by an unstable amount of innings in the field.  If he would sign a 3 year deal, he'd be a solid addition, but he will more than likely also cost a draft pick. 
 
Ellsbury is going to be worth more than a Gomes and Nava platoon.  He'll require at least five years and somewhere between 15 and 20 AAV, though.  I'm comfortable going up to five but not more.  He obviously won't cost us a pick if he's signed, though we don't get one for him departing, either.
 
About as valuable/More Deep Depth:
 
Carlos Beltran is supposedly worth 2.0 fWAR this year.  A big reason he's only worth 2 is that his defensive component is worth -14.2 runs.  That's 1.42 wins.  Since it's only a single season of data, though, that number isn't very trustworthy and his bat is still excellent.  Plus, he'd be in left field where, even if he does suck defensively, it will hurt less.  His last three years at the plate have yielded a 152, 124 and 142 wRC+.  His ISO has been comfortably above .200 in all three.  If he can be had on a 1 year deal, this might be a very good move for 2014 but doesn't address the need long term.  He's making 13 million this year, so the Cardinals may make a QO, content to pay him a little more than that for one more year since they expect to be competitive next year.
 
Risky Investment:
 
Corey Hart is coming off of knee surgery and is going to be 31 next year.  He doubles as an option for 1st base and would maintain the roster flexibility the team enjoys but it's tough to count on him returning to 120-130 wRC+ hitter he was before the injury.  He wasn't a good defender before, so I doubt he'd be one coming back, minimizing his value a bit.  He could well be better than the platoon we currently have, but he could very well be worse or even on the precipice of his physical decline.  I'm not the Brewers might offer him a QO as well, since they could really use the pick and there's a decent chance a team will bite on a multi-year deal but they'd probably be okay with bringing him back on a one year deal to increase his free agent value, even if it's at 14 or 15 million.
 
Downgrades:
 
Both DeJesus and Granderson are unlikely to outproduce the Gomes/Nava platoon, but could be solid additions as additional pieces for the rotations through left field and first base.  Both would free up either Gomes or Nava to play more in the infield though both go right out the window if they are given QO's.  The chances are pretty slim with DeJesus, but the Yankees might consider it if they can keep under 189 million with him saying yes, or they feel the gamble is worth it and that he'd be likely to decline.  I wouldn't like seeing resources used on either guy, though.
 
 
I'm a big fan of the approach they employed last winter where they avoided compensation players to protect as many draft related resources as possible.  I would like to see that continue.  The more draft picks they have, the more money they have to spend, and the better equipped they will be to land some of the tougher sign picks they like to make like Sheffield, Longhi and Boldt this year.  They also proved that there is value to be found in non-compensation players and that they can build a contender without expending a pick.  Obviously, if a good enough player comes along you should be willing to give up your first rounder to sign them, but I'm not sure any of the names above are good enough for that.
 
 
As for trades, that's a more complicated question.  People keep talking about Stanton, but I'm not convinced the Marlins will be motivated to move him this winter.  Even if they are, the cost will be prohibitive.  I'm not parting with more than Cecchini, one of Webster, DLR, Ranaudo or Barnes and a mid range prospect like Marerro or Brian Johnson and that kind of package shouldn't get it done.
 
Andre Ethier is interesting, though expensive.  He's a solid bat who isn't an awful defender yet, but is headed in that direction.  He could slot in as a DH after Papi leaves, but still provide enough defensive value to spell people in the outfield and maybe even at first base.  But again, he's expensive.  The package to net him shouldn't be too bad, though, as the Dodgers will have some pressure to move him and he's not anywhere near a Stanton level asset.
 
I don't see a lot of other corner outfielders who might be available who are likely to be an upgrade on this roster, though.

 

[Reverend]

I just want to applaud a sequence of posts on this page for looking at position/player issues in the context of what the alternative is. That is how it should be done because it is how the management/FO has to approach it. It's easy for us to say we think a guy sucks or wish we had a better guy, but personnel decisions must always be made in terms of "OK, what is the alternative?" And then the price difference.
 
I think some of the mods/Dopes have been trying to get people to think in those terms rather than just shouting "Yay!" or "Boo!" at various players, so it's nice to see here, and kudos especially to EtRM walking it back and saying, "Huh. Now that you mention it..." 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Ethier is essentially a platoon player (career .286 wOBA vs. LHP) with meh defense, and as such, virtually indistinguishable at this stage of his career from Nava. At least, not distinguishable enough to justify any significant talent outlay, I don't think.
 
I wonder if Carlos Gonzalez is a possibility. He too is a LHH with a platoon split, but it's not nearly as extreme as Ethier's, and he's an absolute beast vs. RHP. He has also had big home/road splits until this year, but I tend to take those with a grain of salt for Rockies players, because it's not just a Coors boost, it's also a matter of the three lousy hitter's parks NL West players spend a lot of their time in. He would probably cost somewhat less in talent than Stanton, though we'd still have to give up a whole lot. I don't know if he'll be available or not, but he starts costing real money after next year, so the Rockies, who don't appear close to contention at the moment, might decide to cash him in for young talent now.
 
Of course, there's also Ryan Braun.

 

[jscola85]

Carlos Gonzalez is only three years into a 7-year extension the Rockies signed which pays him very reasonable amounts for the player he's turned into.  He's 25 and second only to Tulowitzki in terms of value to that franchise.  The Rockies aren't the Marlins - they don't really have any pending reason to dump Gonzalez given they have control of him through 2017 and aren't really up against their budget limit.

 

[JakeRae]

It's hard for me to imagine the Sox paying Drew $13M to sit on the bench next year when he's a better player than Middlebrooks, and likely to remain so unless Wombat has a huge breakout season. I realize WMB needs regular playing time if that breakout is ever going to come--and as I said above, I think the Sox can and should roll the dice with him as a regular next year--but that still seems like a weird use of resources. Therefore if Drew is given the QO and accepts it (the first of which is uncertain, and the second unlikely), I have to think that either he or WMB (or, in a few unlikely-but-not-impossible scenarios, Bogaerts) is traded over the winter. But if they really do wind up with all three guys on the roster on Opening Day, I would think WMB is more likely than Drew to wind up in a backup role. 

It's not at all clear to me that Drew is a better player, in the context of the Red Sox needs, than is Middlebrooks. If we look at career offensive performance, which balances out Middlebrooks high BABIP last year and low BABIP this year, we get a .301 BABIP and a .256/.298/.459 hitter, which is good for a 99 wRC+. Looking at Drew's career, we see a BABIP of .306, a .263/.328/.433 hitter and a 96 wRC+. Looking at the wRC+ is important because Middlebrooks line is penalized by having played his career in a worse offensive environment. Drew has a clear advantage in OBP, but it is offset by Middlebrooks' superior power. They are very similar offensive players and there is more reason, due to age and experience factors, to expect improvement from Middlebrooks.
 
Additionally, both players are roughly average defensively at their respective positions, although Drew is, perhaps, slightly better than that. In the abstract, this clearly makes Drew a better baseball player. In the context of the Red Sox, though, it is not so clear. It depends on several issues. First, is Bogaerts better defensively at SS and 3B. While 3B is "easier" not all players improve in moving from SS to 3B. If Bogaerts is actually a superior SS or the organization just wants to keep him there due to long term considerations, is Drew a SS who will improve by moving to 3B or get worse? If he will improve defensively, he's pretty clearly a superior player. If not, there is a reasonable argument that Middlebrooks is the better choice for 3B. 
 
Lastly, if the difference isn't large, there are long term considerations that make it more reasonable to play Middlebrooks as a starter and Drew as a utility man. First and most importantly, Middlebrooks is the long term 3B starter. He needs to keep playing every day. Second, the Red Sox don't want Drew to accept the QO so they want Drew to believe he will be a utility player in Boston. It is bad business to lie to players, so, all else being similar, they should make him a utility player. Third, as a SS, Drew is probably far more suited to developing the skills to backup 2B than is Middlebrooks. They are not asking him to do so this year out of respect for his veteran status and the reasons he came to Boston. those reasons would not apply if he accepted the QO after being explicitly informed that he would fill that role.
 
As a final caveat, I want to note that this is just a hypothetical thought exercise. Drew will be offered the QO and will decline. If he accepts, he will be traded. Drew will not be on the Red Sox next year.

 

[jscola85]

Drew has already made it clear this year that he doesn't want to be a super-sub or even play anywhere but SS every day - it's why he took less money than the Yankees offered, who wanted him to play 3B and back up Jeter.  I think if we give him the QO and tell him he is going to split time between SS/3B and compete with WMB/Bogaerts, he's pretty likely to decline the 1-year tender.  Given his performance this year, it would seem to me he could pull in a multi-year deal on a team that would guarantee him playing time at short, even if it is at a slightly lower AAV than the QO.

 

[Rasputin]

I think we agree in the end. My point, though, was that if you are going to start a year with two starting caliber short stops on the roster, at least one of them has to play other positions. Drew has never played an inning anywhere else, and presently Xander only plays one other position, and not all that effectively it appears.

 
But you're not.
 
Drew is not signing a one year deal.
 
The Red Sox are not signing Drew to a multi-year deal unless Bogaerts is traded.
 
A trade of Bogaerts is highly unlikely.
 
The only scenario where it makes any sense whatsoever is if Middlebrooks is suddenly somehow not the guy for the next few years at third. Maybe he just sucks horrendously for a month. Maybe he loses a leg in a farm accident. Maybe he gets abducted by aliens AND the Sox get shut out in looking for a third baseman.
 
Doing anything else means you're effectively putting Drew's bat at third, even if he's playing short, and Drew's bat at third is nothing special and if you're going to have non special bat at third, I'm pretty sure Middlebrooks is up to the job while being oh so much cheaper.
 
I don't mean to be attacking you, DDB, but I don't even understand how the idea of re-signing Drew even makes it to the point of discussion.
 
We have a young third baseman who looks like he's going to be pretty decent. We have a young shortstop who looks like he's going to be fucking awesome. We have a center fielder who is almost certainly going to need replacing, we have a first baseman who is going to need replacing, and we have a catcher who may or may not need replacing but is a free agent regardless.
 
The infield, other than first, is the one thing on this team that looks stable for the next three or four years. Why the hell would you fuck with that?
 
We want to improve and spending extra dollars on the left side of the infield isn't the way to do it. As mentioned above, it doesn't look like there are a lot of options to improve in the outfield. I say we let Nava fight it out with Brentz and Kalish and whoever the hell else comes to camp, stick JBJ in center if we can't bring Ellsbury back, and spent the effort to improve at first and catcher.
 
And by catcher, I mean McCann, and at first, I don't fucking know.

 

[smastroyin]

I would be happy to QO Drew and even if he takes it, use him as a super sub/injury replacement.  If he's willing to add LF to his resume he can probably still get 500 PA on this team if they don't sign Ellsbury.  And it's worth the risk of overpaying for that in return for the chance at the draft pick (IMO).  
 
Outside of that, I see no way he is a Red Sox next year that makes any sense.

 

[Quintanariffic]

As a practical matter, if the Sox make a QO to Drew and comunicate that X is penciled in as the starting SS for 2014, he is unlikely to accept it given inability to position himself for a bigger deal in 2015.  This should work itself out pretty easily.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Totally agree with the last five posts or so, basically a waste of time to talk about bringing Drew back at this point. They will need someone else who can handle 2B/SS/3B for 2014 but that guy will cost a lot less than Drew.

 

[Puffy]

...yet somehow it is still tough simply to let him walk...
 
He is certainly making good in a Beltre-esque way.  Since the All Star break, he has essentially been THE best SS in baseball.  In fact, his 1.6 fWAR since the break rank him #22 among ALL position players in baseball.  Before the break, he still ranked in the middle tier among SS, in spite of his (possibly concussion-related) struggles.  
 
He will be 31 years old at the beginning of the season next year and is basically a top 10 SS with balanced offense/defense (arguably top 5).  With the scarcity of offensive shortstops out there who can play above average defense, I imagine there will be a very healthy market out there for him.  I think the QO is a no brainer at this point (I could see someone paying him $13 million AAV for 3 or 4 years).  
 
I guess the tough part is that, were it not for the emergence of Bogaerts, Drew is exactly the kind of player the Red Sox covet.  He has been a very important part of this Red Sox team, especially the solid second half.  Obviously, Bogaerts is a very special player, so we are unlikely to miss Drew too much.  And yet it is likely that we will watch him perform well for another team through what's left of his prime years.
 
A lot of the same can be said for Ellsbury.  Strange that the Red Sox have two premier free agents at positions where it is very hard to find value, and yet it seems a distinct possibility that we watch both of them walk with little to no fanfare.

 

[rembrat]

 
I don't mean to be attacking you, DDB, but I don't even understand how the idea of re-signing Drew even makes it to the point of discussion.
 
We have a young third baseman who looks like he's going to be pretty decent. We have a young shortstop who looks like he's going to be fucking awesome. We have a center fielder who is almost certainly going to need replacing, we have a first baseman who is going to need replacing, and we have a catcher who may or may not need replacing but is a free agent regardless.
 

 
Are you fucking serious right now? After all the Julio Lugos, Mike Aviles, Nick Greens of the worlds playing spotty defense and providing nothing offensively you don't even want to discuss the idea of trying to keep a SOLID shortstop?? And obviously I am aware of Xander but I'm really not putting much confidence in a 20 year old shortstop. It's just too uncertain and I don't see the benefit in rushing him.

 

[MakMan44]

I like Dave Cameron but this is just so stupid. From-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-hitters-are-getting-a-qualifying-offer-this-offseason/
 
EDIT:Can't figure how to work the quoting system. If a mod wants to clean it up, I'd appreciate it.
 
 
 
 

Stephen Drew, SS, Red Sox

Drew has turned out to be one of the best signings of the winter after they got him for $9.5 million on a one year deal over the off-season, as he’s provided quality production from a position where it isn’t so easy to find anymore. There’s a good chance Drew’s going to end the year with +3 WAR, and despite the fact that it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s only headed into his age-31 season.

However, he’s never been the healthiest guy in the world, and his replacement level 2012 performance still has to be a factor in deciding how much he gets paid going forward. He’s earned a raise over what he got as a free agent last winter, but is there really a mutli-year deal out there for Drew that is more attractive than $14 million for 2014? I doubt it, especially once you factor in the draft pick compensation. Like with Napoli, the Red Sox will essentially have to decide whether or not they’re willing to deal with the player accepting the offer if its made, which seems like a likely outcome in this situation.

With Xander Bogaerts around, my guess is probably not. The Sox aren’t going to want to pay $14 million to a guy who may very well end up as a backup to Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks, so Drew should be allowed to hit the market without draft pick compensation attached. With that stipulation removed, he’ll likely land a multi-year deal as a free agent, so Drew is an example of how this new system actually works to the benefit of the players at times, at least in opposition to the old Type A/Type B system.

Conclusion: Don’t make the offer.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I like Dave Cameron but this is just so stupid. From-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-hitters-are-getting-a-qualifying-offer-this-offseason/
 
EDIT:Can't figure how to work the quoting system. If a mod wants to clean it up, I'd appreciate it.

Now that the write up from Cameron is fixed, why are you saying that he's dumb? If you're going to post something like that you need to back up your statement.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

I like Dave Cameron but this is just so stupid. From-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-hitters-are-getting-a-qualifying-offer-this-offseason/
 
EDIT:Can't figure how to work the quoting system. If a mod wants to clean it up, I'd appreciate it.
 
 
 
 

 
Can you please elaborate on why you think Cameron's perspective is stupid?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Take Drew's April numbers out, when he might still have not been right from the concussion and he's 
 
BA .266
OBP .346 *
SLG .475
OPS .821 #
 
* (approximation)
# (approximation because of OBP approximation)

 

[Frisbetarian]

After passing Jed Lowrie last night, Stephen Drew now has the highest OPS among active SS's in the AL with over 400 plate appearances. He is 3rd in OPS in all of MLB, and rapidly gaining on Ian Desmond. 

 

[MakMan44]

Now that the write up from Cameron is fixed, why are you saying that he's dumb? If you're going to post something like that you need to back up your statement.

Sorry, I thought it was fairly obvious. That's not meant to be a slight at all BTW. (Thanks for cleaning it up as well)
 
Anyway, for staters his main point seems to be "it's not fair to attach FA compensation to Drew, so don't do it." which is stupid for a variety of reasons, the biggest of which is that baseball is a business and should be treated as such. 
 
Secondly, I have a problem with the idea that X has flat out earned the starting job in 2014. I think retaining Drew would't be the worst thing in the world and a 5$ million upgrade on this years contract isn't terrible considering he's been a pretty solid player this season. As rembrat noted above, we would have killed for Drew over the last few seasons. Worst case scenario, we could always trade Drew if Xander has an amazing ST and they feels he's ready. Unless he's injured, someone willing be willing to take on Drew, SS are always in demand. 
 
EDIT: As to Drew's injury history, that's been hashed over by people much smarter than me. Regardless, not offering a QO because of an injury that may or may not happen is a silly way to conduct business IMO. 

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

 
Can you please elaborate on why you think Cameron's perspective is stupid?

 
Are think there are many reasons related to Drew's value, but I think it is fairly simple.  If I ran the Sox, I would tell Drew's agent (Boras?), "We are going to make Drew a qualifying offer and are happy to have him back.  We are fortunate to have enough in the budget to afford him.  But, Xander and Middlebrooks are the future, so , unlike this year, Drew would be the back up for SS, 3b and 2b,  So, if he comes back, he needs to be prepared to back up all three of those positions."
 
I think Boras would be committing malpractice to take that deal with the Sox rather than a multi-year deal somewhere else or a better one year place to build his value.  

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Are think there are many reasons related to Drew's value, but I think it is fairly simple.  If I ran the Sox, I would tell Drew's agent (Boras?), "We are going to make Drew a qualifying offer and are happy to have him back.  We are fortunate to have enough in the budget to afford him.  But, Xander and Middlebrooks are the future, so , unlike this year, Drew would be the back up for SS, 3b and 2b,  So, if he comes back, he needs to be prepared to back up all three of those positions."
 
I think Boras would be committing malpractice to take that deal with the Sox rather than a multi-year deal somewhere else or a better one year place to build his value.

Boras' job is to advise his clients. What deal they take or don't take is entirely up to the player. It's not like he puts a spell on them and they do his bidding. He'll lay out the pros and cons of taking a QO from the Sox, if they make one, and then Drew will decide to take it or turn it down, not Boras.

 

[TomRicardo]

I would say what was missing from Cameron's analysis was the fact Drew could easily be traded for assets.  I am not going to say it is stupid but it is a glaring oversight and does really change how you perceive the argument.
 
Basically the choice is get nothing for Drew and carry no risk of salary or carry risk of salary and get return back.  The Red Sox have the payroll room to take on a single year of Drew and there will be other teams willing to pay 14 million for one year of Drew.  That is very low risk to a sizable reward.

 

[rembrat]

I would say what was missing from Cameron's analysis was the fact Drew could easily be traded for assets.  I am not going to say it is stupid but it is a glaring oversight and does really change how you perceive the argument.
 
Basically the choice is get nothing for Drew and carry no risk of salary or carry risk of salary and get return back.  The Red Sox have the payroll room to take on a single year of Drew and there will be other teams willing to pay 14 million for one year of Drew.  That is very low risk to a sizable reward.

 
If the Yankees didn't have Jeter's ego to deal with they would totally jump all over him and he would own in that park.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
I don't mean to be attacking you, DDB, but I don't even understand how the idea of re-signing Drew even makes it to the point of discussion.

 
Yeah -- we don't disagree at all.  Just like you, I'm responding to the discussion not starting it and saying why I think it's nowhere near feasible.

 

[radsoxfan]

Sorry, I thought it was fairly obvious. That's not meant to be a slight at all BTW. (Thanks for cleaning it up as well)
 
Anyway, for staters his main point seems to be "it's not fair to attach FA compensation to Drew, so don't do it." which is stupid for a variety of reasons, the biggest of which is that baseball is a business and should be treated as such.

Which part of that quote are interpreting as the Sox deciding FA compensation based on it not being "fair"? I don't read it that way at all.

If Drew's second half play continues, I can see an offer being made if the Sox decide he's very likely to get a long term deal and/or reject any one year deal outright. But I think it's a close call, and Cameron's point of view is very reasonable. A couple of months ago I would have (and did) lean towards not offering the deal. And that change of opinion might be foolishly based on a couple solid months of play.

 

[MakMan44]

Which part of that quote are interpreting as the Sox deciding FA compensation based on it not being "fair"? I don't read it that way at all.
 

"so Drew should be allowed to hit the market without draft pick compensation attached. With that stipulation removed, he’ll likely land a multi-year deal as a free agent, so Drew is an example of how this new system actually works to the benefit of the players at times, at least in opposition to the old Type A/Type B system."
 

If Drew's second half play continues, I can see an offer being made if the Sox decide he's very likely to get a long term deal and/or reject any one year deal outright. But I think it's a close call, and Cameron's point of view is very reasonable. A couple of months ago I would have (and did) lean towards not offering the deal. And that change of opinion might be foolishly based on a couple solid months of play.

I also disagree with this. He's getting further and further away from the ankle injury that plagued him in 2011 and clearly hampered his play in 2012. He also had that concussion earlier this year. I think his solid play is actually closer to what to expect going forward. 

 

[smastroyin]

While I understand rembrat's point, I would tend to look at it this way.  If the Red Sox didn't have Drew right now, would they be looking at him as a FA addition over this off-season?  I think the answer is pretty clearly no.  
 
I would QO him for reasons I outlined above...so now think of it this way, would the Red Sox give up a draft pick in order to sign Drew if he were on another team?  That to me is a resounding no.

 

[MakMan44]

While I understand rembrat's point, I would tend to look at it this way.  If the Red Sox didn't have Drew right now, would they be looking at him as a FA addition over this off-season?  I think the answer is pretty clearly no.  
 
I would QO him for reasons I outlined above...so now think of it this way, would the Red Sox give up a draft pick in order to sign Drew if he were on another team?  That to me is a resounding no.

This doesn't hold because of X. If he was a couple years away, instead of possibly ready next season, I absolutely think the Sox would be in on Drew in the off season. 
 
Like TR and I mentioned, if the Sox retain him, all it's going to cost is money (which they can afford) and he still becomes a very tradable asset if they don't need him. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This doesn't hold because of X. If he was a couple years away, instead of possibly ready next season, I absolutely think the Sox would be in on Drew in the off season. 
 
Like TR and I mentioned, if the Sox retain him, all it's going to cost is money (which they can afford) and he still becomes a very tradable asset if they don't need him. 

 
I don't think they would be, even if Xander wasn't apparently ready.  Last winter they didn't touch anyone who had draft pick compensation attached to them.  They covet draft picks, and perhaps more importantly, the slot money attached to them.  Manipulating the draft with money is much harder to do than in the previous CBA.  The Sox appear to have adopted a strategy of controlling every draft related asset they can to maximize their money advantage in any given year.
 
Oddly enough, that's similar to how they have been managing their roster.  The money advantage is less with all the TV deals popping up around the league, but they still do have some financial muscle and flex it by controlling as many assets as they can.  Giving up a pick to sign Drew, if he was hitting the market from another team this winter, would not fit in with how they have run the team since the current CBA began.
 
I've been on the QO for Drew bandwagon for a while.  I think Cameron is probably wrong and that Drew is quite likely to get a multi-year offer even with compensation strung around his neck.  And Tom and Rembrat are both correct in that you can just trade him if he accepts, so the risk of him accepting is minimal and not very costly.  I also would love to see the left side of the infield covered by a rotation of Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Drew.  Hell, if Drew can take some reps at 2nd base he could still see 500 ABs in 2014 while both Boagerts and Middlebrooks get the at bats they need to continue developing.
 
Of course, if Drew wants to be a starting short stop and only a starting short stop, letting him know that he'll be splitting time with Bogearts and that he may have to play some third or second base is just going to be more motivation for him to decline the offer.  I don't see a bad outcome for the Red Sox here.

 

[MakMan44]

That's an excellent point Snod. My POV comes from the fact that, outside of X, we don't have another starting SS in the upper levels (IIRC).
 
If X wasn't ready, they'd almost certainly turn to the FA market because you don't see many starting SS on the trade market or at least ones that you won't have to overpay for. 
 
I guess they could have signed Peralta on make good sort of deal though, similar to Drew this season. 

 

[lexrageorge]

I would argue that Drew getting a QO is in the grey area.  Ellsbury and Salty are no-brainers (only Cafardo thinks a Salty QO is a "tough decision").  But Drew is an interesting case, and I do think the Sox will at least be debating this internally right up until the date they need to do it. 
 
For all the reasons cited above, I think they should do it, and I believe they will.  But there's a non-zero chance that the team will decide that $14M will be better spent elsewhere.  

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
If the Yankees didn't have Jeter's ego to deal with they would totally jump all over him and he would own in that park.

No lie. Don't know where to get a composite for Drew's hitchart in all ballparks. just Fenway here. Do teams use the infield shift against Stephen? Looks like they should.
 
http://msn.foxsports...?q=stephen-drew

 

[Al Zarilla]

Worst casing it (for the team and X) the Sox let Drew go, X feels a lot of pressure next year because he's now IT at shortstop, he presses and does poorly. Now what? It's kind of hard to backtrack now though because Farrell said something like 'it's time for Xander to begin his major league career now' when Xander came up. I'd be all for another year of Drew at SS (if he could come to an "arrangement" with the team like this year) and X gets a full year of seasoning at Pawtucket. 

 

[radsoxfan]

"so Drew should be allowed to hit the market without draft pick compensation attached. With that stipulation removed, he’ll likely land a multi-year deal as a free agent, so Drew is an example of how this new system actually works to the benefit of the players at times, at least in opposition to the old Type A/Type B system."

You are over reading that sentence. He "should be allowed to hit the market" because that's simply what happens when the Sox don't make him the QO. It's not because that's what's most fair to Drew.

The Red Sox FO doesn't care about fairness. They will do what's best for themselves within the framework of the CBA.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

No lie. Don't know where to get a composite for Drew's hitchart in all ballparks. just Fenway here. Do teams use the infield shift against Stephen? Looks like they should.
 
http://msn.foxsports...?q=stephen-drew

Try texasleaguers.com for the composite hit chart. 

 

[MakMan44]

You are over reading that sentence. He "should be allowed to hit the market" because that's simply what happens when the Sox don't make him the QO. It's not because that's what's most fair to Drew.

The Red Sox FO doesn't care about fairness. They will do what's best for themselves within the framework of the CBA.

You're right, I see how I misread it now. 

 

[Puffy]

 
If the Yankees didn't have Jeter's ego to deal with they would totally jump all over him and he would own in that park.

 
If the Yankees don't manage to re-sign Cano, I could see Drew as a nice plan B. They could sign Drew long term and slide him back to SS whenever Jeter decides to retire. Unlike last offseason, Drew should in line for a long term deal and I could see him (and Boras) being flexible about learning second base.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Try texasleaguers.com for the composite hit chart. 

Thanks Abs. 

 

[NoXInNixon]

 
If the Yankees don't manage to re-sign Cano, I could see Drew as a nice plan B. They could sign Drew long term and slide him back to SS whenever Jeter decides to retire. Unlike last offseason, Drew should in line for a long term deal and I could see him (and Boras) being flexible about learning second base.

Has Jeter ever publicly said he's not willing to play 3B in 2014? 

 

[SoxScout]

Try texasleaguers.com for the composite hit chart. 

 
Spray charts here too: http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=452220&position=SS&split=&txtStartDate=&txtEndDate=#spray

 

[Koufax]

Last night's game -- and the entire ALCS, really -- convinced me that Steven Drew is an elite SS.  When we were saying that Iggy would be a great addition to the team if he would only hit .220 or so, we did not realize that we had the substantial equivalent of that already playing for the team. Drew is not as flashy, but he is solid and capable of making very difficult plays.  He is athletic and quick.   I don't see having X play SS in his place during the WS.  Bad news for WMB, perhaps, because X can't be on the bench.  But at this moment the best combo by far is X and Drew -- no question about that in my mind.   

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Last night's game -- and the entire ALCS, really -- convinced me that Steven Drew is an elite SS.  When we were saying that Iggy would be a great addition to the team if he would only hit .220 or so, we did not realize that we had the substantial equivalent of that already playing for the team. Drew is not as flashy, but he is solid and capable of making very difficult plays.  He is athletic and quick.   I don't see having X play SS in his place during the WS.  Bad news for WMB, perhaps, because X can't be on the bench.  But at this moment the best combo by far is X and Drew -- no question about that in my mind.

45 PO/A in 46 chances in the playoffs so far, with participation in 11 double plays. These games showed the incerdible importance of defense in tight, coin flip games. Everyone will remember the grand slams, and rightly so. But you could make an argument that two almost equally important events in the series were Pedey's bobble in game 4 and Iggy's misplay in game 6. Sabermetrics probably don't see it this way, but Drew's amazing play last night in the context of the game was almost as valuable as a solo home run.

 

[TheYaz67]

Yeah, the sweet play on Cabrera in the top of the 7th was worth -0.48 WPA - his subsequent strike out with Gomes on 2nd for the 1st out in the bottom of the 7th was worth -0.90.....

 

[Vjklander]

Napoli made his full $13M based on his games and plate appearances.  I hope they can bring him back on a 1 or 2 year deal. His defense was a very nice surprising addition and I'm one of those who prefer a GG caliber 1B than a purely offensive player. I'm not too sure how the pool of Carp/Nava/WMB/Snyder/Hassan/Holt/McDonald/Papi/Salty is from a defensive perspective(acknowledging it is hard to evaluate someone who doesn't play the position on a regular basis)

 

[Vjklander]

WMB is so inconsistent. And he always seems so nonchalant. I was really hoping for a left side of Iglesisa/Bogaerts for the next decade or so.

 

[SumnerH]

45 PO/A in 46 chances in the playoffs so far, with participation in 11 double plays. These games showed the incerdible importance of defense in tight, coin flip games. Everyone will remember the grand slams, and rightly so. But you could make an argument that two almost equally important events in the series were Pedey's bobble in game 4 and Iggy's misplay in game 6. Sabermetrics probably don't see it this way, but Drew's amazing play last night in the context of the game was almost as valuable as a solo home run.

 
The play Iggy made the error on in game 2 was +17% for the Red Sox WPA; the game 6 error was only +12%.  
 
Teasing out what portion of that is due to the error per se and what's due to the rest of the play is beyond my pay grade, but I find it interesting that everyone keeps talking up last night's error when the game 2 one "felt" to me like a much bigger swing at the time (parking a runner on 2nd with no outs in the bottom of the 9th, game tied).  

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The play Iggy made the error on in game 2 was +17% for the Red Sox WPA; the game 6 error was only +12%.  
 
Teasing out what portion of that is due to the error per se and what's due to the rest of the play is beyond my pay grade, but I find it interesting that everyone keeps talking up last night's error when the game 2 one "felt" to me like a much bigger swing at the time (parking a runner on 2nd with no outs in the bottom of the 9th, game tied).

Is the error itself in game two +17, or the whole play? Even without the error, it's a hit, and first base no out in a walk off inning at home. It was a one base error, not two. It was still a hit. I am surprised one base makes a +17 difference. Is it possible that number includes the single? In any event, I think knowing the teams and the situation and the emotional way one watches a game affects how one views a play.. Even without the error in game 2, the Sox felt in control. The error in game 5 tipped the balance, and seemed to turn the game from one in which the Tigers were in control to one in which the Sox were in control.

Put it another way. The Sox were probably already in the high sixties with the lead off single in the 9th in game 2, so the error made a high WP higher, which is great but not as dramatic. The game 6 error, on the other hand probably changed the horse race and moved the Tigers from the probable winner to the probable loser.

Edit: oh, sorry. You made the teasing it out point. I misunderstood you at first. But they both were big errors, for sure.