With Drew most likely gone now, get ready for Bogaerts at short for the next decade. And somewhere, WMD is smiling.
Drew v. 2.0
- Thread starter lambeau
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Cecchini no. But Middlebrooks has first shot, so I'm guessing he thinks he's in control, and he may be right. But Marrero? I don't think anyone sees him in Bogey's class, at least not yet. And I guess you may be right. If everyone plays well (now there's a nice problem!) then yes, trade bait.IpswichSox said:
nattysez said:
I would not be surprised. The market for infielders is thin and Drew's season was a lot better than most give him credit for.
I have a feeling Stephen Drew is going to surprise a lot of people with how much he gets in this deal. His age probably prevents him from going 5 years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 4/44 or something along those lines from some team.
I still find it hard to believe that the MFY's would even be contemplating this move. They just dropped $12 mill on Jeter. To pay Drew's ransom on top. So they want to have potentially $50 million tied up between SS and 2B. Not even thinking A-Rod if he even has a reduction and Tex's contracts on top. However with them, you just never know.Ed Hillel said:
And Scott Boras makes it unofficial official:
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24204064/drew-to-decline-qualifying-offer-aims-much-much-higher-than-that
Love the Boras bombast about Andrus' 8-year deal. Obviously this is more about years than money, and I can't imagine Drew/Boras will settle for fewer than four years. Drew should get it, too, and he'd be an excellent signing for the Cards. They don't have a SS in their pipeline.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24204064/drew-to-decline-qualifying-offer-aims-much-much-higher-than-that
Love the Boras bombast about Andrus' 8-year deal. Obviously this is more about years than money, and I can't imagine Drew/Boras will settle for fewer than four years. Drew should get it, too, and he'd be an excellent signing for the Cards. They don't have a SS in their pipeline.
Ed Hillel said:
I don't think I had really realized that Jed Lowrie stayed on the field for a 156 games and SIX HUNDRED AND SIXTY TWO FUCKING PLATE APPEARANCES this year and now I'm going to need a turbo booster of scotch to sleep tonight
So there've been murmurings that Drew could be back. Where would he go at this point, if not the Sox?
Teams set at SS: ATL, TOR, BAL, DET, KC, CHW, TEX, LAA, WAS, PHI, COL, CHC, STL
Teams unlikely to sign a SS, even if they could kind of use one: ARI, NYY, SF, OAK
Teams unlikely to sign a big $ FA: HOU, SD, TB, CLE, MIN, MIL
So, that leaves:
NYM (who are likely out of budget, but you never know)
SEA
MIA (who must have still money after missing on Napoli)
CIN (they have Cozart, but may want to upgrade their offense)
PIT (would be a risk given all the young guys they need to lock up soon, but maybe they want to GFIN)
LAD (who could sign Drew and move Hanley to 3b)
Thoughts?
Teams set at SS: ATL, TOR, BAL, DET, KC, CHW, TEX, LAA, WAS, PHI, COL, CHC, STL
Teams unlikely to sign a SS, even if they could kind of use one: ARI, NYY, SF, OAK
Teams unlikely to sign a big $ FA: HOU, SD, TB, CLE, MIN, MIL
So, that leaves:
NYM (who are likely out of budget, but you never know)
SEA
MIA (who must have still money after missing on Napoli)
CIN (they have Cozart, but may want to upgrade their offense)
PIT (would be a risk given all the young guys they need to lock up soon, but maybe they want to GFIN)
LAD (who could sign Drew and move Hanley to 3b)
Thoughts?
nattysez said:
Seattle is set at shortstop; Brad Miller is one of the better young shortstops in the game, and will probably be better than Steven Drew next year.
Cozart is a good defensive shortstop and has enough power to make him a decent shortstop overall.
The Mets are always in play, and the Yankees would make tons of sense if they ever decided to upgrade from Jeter.
The Royals are probably out, as you mentioned, but they should give Drew some consideration, given how bad Alcides Escobar is at the plate.
At the value that the Red Sox have pegged Drew at (perhaps now another 1-year, $8M contract), they will probably face competition from other teams with backup needs.
I think Drew gets signed by one of the teams with a protected draft pick.
Seattle has both Miller and Franklin who are middle infielders with strong minor league offense, and both had pretty solid ML stints this year. They're probably out.nattysez said:
Cincy and Pittsburgh would both lose their first rounders, likely a big disincentive for each as they're small to middle market teams who rely in the farm to fill out their roster every year.
And isn't a big part of Hanley's preference for LA tied to the fact that Miami wanted to him to move over to 3B but LA lets him stay at SS?
A lot of teams could be interested if the years and dollars are short enough, but if the Sox are seriously interested in keeping him they've got a good bit of leverage on their side.
I would really like to see him back at this point and for the Sox to use him, Bogaerts, and WMB to eliminate the need for a distinct MI on the team. RHP matchups would be Bogaerts/Drew, LHP matchups would be Middlebrooks/Bogaerts, and all three get regular rest along the way. Middlebrooks could also continue to work at 1B and 2B to make him the utility man around the infield, while also being the guy who spells Ortiz when needed. He'd have a good shot at ~400 ABs in that setup, while the pressure on Bogaerts would also be reduced.
The one real downside is an overlap between Middlebrooks and Carp, but they'd make a nice RH/LH pair of bats off the bench for PH purposes late in games and during inter-league play.
Drek717 said:
If the long-term plan is to have X as the SS for the next 6+ years, does it make sense to shuttle him between SS and 3B his first full year in the majors? Maybe it's not a big deal, but if there's any downside then I don't know if spending another $8-10 million on Drew is a great move. Let someone else sign him, collect another pick, and find a UI.
Peter Gammons was just on MLB Newtwork and stated that the Red Sox "Don't believe its possible for Drew to return." They'd love to have him, but they have seemingly moved on. Xander to start at SS.
If they re-sign Drew (which would presumably be for more than one year), then I think they will package Middlebrooks as part of something. Both Drew and Middlebrooks lose serious value if they are not full timers are 3B and SS respectively, since neither play anywhere else. (I think the 1B/2B/UI talk of Middlebrooks is folly, but YMMV).
AKA they are waiting for his price to come down after nobody signs him because they don't want to give up a pick for him. I think he comes back to the the Red Sox at a slightly higher price for 1 year again.SouthernBoSox said:
I really like Drew. He's an excellent player at a key position. I'd love to have him back, but agree that he might be a square peg for the Red Sox.
joe dokes said:
Methinks it very possible, whatever value to position, that the Sox are actually weighing the circumstance of Cecchini, eventually, at 1B.
joe dokes said:
Yea I agree completely with this. If Drew is brought back on a 2 year deal and Cecchini is the future at 3B it kind of leaves Middlebrooks as the odd man out. I like the idea of bringing back Drew, and a package of Middlebrooks with one of the starters would probably get the Sox a quality return.
Complete and utter hunch, but based somewhat on observation from his time in Greenville. He is not a bad third baseman, or wasn't, but had trouble in those days with a few of the throws, especially when he had to move backwards. I know it's become fashionable in some quarters to claim that WMB is somehow merely adequate or worse at 3B, but I still think he's got the potential to be very good over there. Cecchini -- and bearing in mind I haven't seen him in some time -- didn't strike me that way: he'd be a serviceable third-baseman but probably not more than that.Papelbon's Poutine said:
nattysez said:
Great post.
Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense. They have no long-term commitments besides McCutchen, and there's no reason to think they can't stay in contention for the next couple of years.
The Marlins are likely under pressure to increase payroll dramatically this winter, so I expect they'll sign at least one more significant FA. Drew would be as good an investment as any, provided they aren't worried about losing their second round pick. The same is true for the Astros, but my hunch is that they will refuse to give up picks under any circumstances.
The one place I'd quibble is Minnesota -- why wouldn't the Twins be interested in Drew? They are actively trying to improve their club, and they've been willing enough to spend money (by mid-market standards) since moving to Target Field. And like the Marlins and Astros, their first round pick is protected. I'm not saying the Twin Cities are Drew's most likely destination, but I don't see why they would be unlikely to be interested (though I could be missing something).
Devizier said:
Escobar is arguably the best defensive SS in The Show, and he has been durable. Drew is probably the better overall player of the two, but signing Drew would be a terrible allocation of resources by a club that doesn't have much money to spend.
There's no way it's worth a supplemental draft pick than to resign Drew. I wouldn't bother even making him an offer.
I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox offer Drew 2 for $20MM* and the agreement not to offer him arbitration in 2 years (if that helps secure the deal). Drew starts at SS and Xander starts at 3B against RHP. Xander plays SS and WMB plays 3B against LHP. It should upgrade the offense at both SS and 3B from 2013. It works Xander in slowly at SS. Gives us nice depth, no need for utility infielder then. Cecchini is not rushed.
*we'd have to dump $10MM of Dempster's contract to make Drew's salary work.
*we'd have to dump $10MM of Dempster's contract to make Drew's salary work.
A) I believe you are talking about a QO as opposed to Arbitrationbenhogan said:
B) I believe this is no longer allowed - at least in a formal sense
benhogan said:
I just can't see Drew going for a 2-year deal if they're going to make him a platoon player, even if it's he's the strong side of the platoon. He's always been a full-time player, and wants to be a full-time player. He reportedly passed on a richer offer last winter from the Yankees because they wanted to make him a utility guy (fill in for Jeter until he came back, then go to the bench). Can't imagine anything's changed in Drew's view.
Drew strikes me as this year's Michael Bourne. A guy for whom the QO draft pick is suppressing his market and it looks like all his potential landing spots are drying up early in the off-season. Some team we think isn't interested now is going to come around in late January or early February and give him a 3-4 year deal just like the Indians sort of came out of nowhere to sign Bourne. I bet it's either the Marlins or the Twins.
You have anything to back this up? Because honestly, if you believe that, I would love to see your valuations of what a supplemental draft pick if worth.PrometheusWakefield said:
Drew was over a 3 win player last year and has a ceiling of 5 or so wins. If you think not gaining supplemental pick is worth a 3-5 win SS, then I don't know.....
If you can get him on a 2 year deal around 12 AAV I think it's a move you make 1000 times over. That being said, it doesn't feel like that deal gets it done. But not getting a supplemental pick has nothing to do with it.
They want Drew back.
I heard Cherington interviewed this morning on XM radio. He said pretty much exactly what was previously reported by many media outlets in his teleconference.
To say that he plays his cards close to his chest understates his approach. So called leaks about what the Sox will or won't do usually seem to be a lot less accurate than with past GM's. When it comes to retaining players already in the organization, he plays it pretty straight. Everyone is invited back by Ben but you need to read between the lines as to who he really wants to keep. What he is saying, essentially, is that everyone is welcome to return but only at what the organization feels are fair prices.
For those moves that he doesn't need to make at a particular time (extending Pedroia) or for those where he needs to go outside the organization to plug gaps (everything done last winter plus Badenhop and Mujica so far), you generally don't see those transactions coming until such deals are virtually complete. His ability to stay under the radar this way when it comes to sacrificing money, talent or both to make outside acquisitions seems almost unprecedented in the Boston media fishbowl. Loose lips don't sink Ben's ship.
In Theo we trust wore off in his last few seasons after 2007 although most things he did worked out before then. Few if anybody expected Cherington's moves after taking over to work out so well. Fans have a lot more confidence in just these few moves made so far after winning the championship because almost every change since he was put in charge worked out. By all reports, ownership meddling pretty much ended after their Valentine fiasco. The Punto trade is where Cherington clearly began to assert control of his team without unnecessary interference.
It's fun to speculate about what we want Ben to do but he operates with so much stealth when he really covets something that it's difficult to predict what he is pursuing until his prey is actually caught. Ben's poker face telegraphs nothing about what he is up to.
I am hopeful to simply acknowledge that In Ben We Trust will end up as a long running production in Boston.
To say that he plays his cards close to his chest understates his approach. So called leaks about what the Sox will or won't do usually seem to be a lot less accurate than with past GM's. When it comes to retaining players already in the organization, he plays it pretty straight. Everyone is invited back by Ben but you need to read between the lines as to who he really wants to keep. What he is saying, essentially, is that everyone is welcome to return but only at what the organization feels are fair prices.
For those moves that he doesn't need to make at a particular time (extending Pedroia) or for those where he needs to go outside the organization to plug gaps (everything done last winter plus Badenhop and Mujica so far), you generally don't see those transactions coming until such deals are virtually complete. His ability to stay under the radar this way when it comes to sacrificing money, talent or both to make outside acquisitions seems almost unprecedented in the Boston media fishbowl. Loose lips don't sink Ben's ship.
In Theo we trust wore off in his last few seasons after 2007 although most things he did worked out before then. Few if anybody expected Cherington's moves after taking over to work out so well. Fans have a lot more confidence in just these few moves made so far after winning the championship because almost every change since he was put in charge worked out. By all reports, ownership meddling pretty much ended after their Valentine fiasco. The Punto trade is where Cherington clearly began to assert control of his team without unnecessary interference.
It's fun to speculate about what we want Ben to do but he operates with so much stealth when he really covets something that it's difficult to predict what he is pursuing until his prey is actually caught. Ben's poker face telegraphs nothing about what he is up to.
I am hopeful to simply acknowledge that In Ben We Trust will end up as a long running production in Boston.
benhogan said:
I like Drew, but I dont understand the "working Xander in slowly at SS" rationale. Either the organization thinks he can play or it doesn't. He seems to be generally regarded as a generational talent. These estimations could be wrong. But if the Sox see him in the same light that this and previous regimes saw its last 2 great homegrown IFs -- Nomar & Pedroia -- then he's playing (like they did). Maybe at 3B, maybe at SS. But I doubt it will be both. And I really doubt that they are going to keep 3 full-time players for 2 spots. I would be shocked if they sign Drew AND keep Middlebrooks. There just isn't room on a 25-man roster for both, where we know the manager wants a 7-man pen.
joe dokes said:
The other thing that is neglected by those suggesting Drew and Middlebrooks could exist on the same roster is that it would leave the team without a viable back-up at 2B. Drew doesn't play there. Bogaerts doesn't play there. Middlebrooks got, what, two innings of work there? It was one thing to go without a capable sub for Pedroia for the 10 days or whatever it was in August before the rosters expanded. It's entirely another to plan for an entire season with the roster constructed that way.
After rosters expanded they only had Brock Holt and John McDonald, then they went back to that configuration in the playoffs. Middlebrooks was drafted as a SS, and has expressed a willingness to learn 2B. He'd have all of spring training to get significant reps over there in game-speed action. It could be done. Also, does Middlebrooks have an option left? He'd be pissed off, but, oh well.
The ongoing interest in Drew has much more to do with the fact that they like him as a player and have misgivings about Middlebrooks than anything regarding Xander. X was starting and batting 6th in the World Series. I think they think he's ready.
Plympton91 said:
Again IF and only if they re-sign Drew -- I think optioning him (if he has one) is more likely than him being tabbed as the backup 2B to start the season. But that raises another question . . . Once Middlebrooks becomes the 3rd man for 2 spots, doesn't he by defintion immediately become more valuable to trade than keep, since (I assume anyway) that other teams would be interested in him as a full-time 3B, a trade would likely reflect that, and capable UIs roam the streets of Florida and Arizona all through March looking for homes.
I prefer to keep X and Middlebrooks as the left side of the IF for the next 10 years, forego Drew, and find a UI on the scrap heap. So I am not advocating trading him; but IF they sign Drew, a trade would seem to be a better thing for the organization than keeping Middlebrooks as a backup.
100% agreed.
Plympton91 said:
That certainly wasn't by choice, though, right? It was a weird circumstance last year. As the season started, wasn't the expectation that it would be WMB at 3B, Drew at SS, and Ciricaco as a UI who could play all positions in a pinch? Iggy got the early season call up, because Drew couldn't go early in the year. But I think that was the configuration they wanted.
Then things got weird. Iggy played too well to be ignored. WMB had issues. Iggy's ability to play MLB baseball made Ciriaco expendable. But then Clay got hurt and they found themselves in need of starting position, and Iggy got it done. Once that happened, the plan went to hell. Iggy made Ciriaco expendable, but once Iggy left, they found themselves without a back up at 2B and an all star at the position with a messed up thumb. So, Holt was the stop gap and McDonald was insurance that if Pedey went down, they at least had someone who could save runs at the position even if he couldn't produce them at the plate.
But the point is, this year's current construction is much like last year's opening day at present, with Xander taking the Drew role. I assume that whatever made the Red Sox want to start 2013 with WMB, Drew and a utility guy who could play those positions plus 2B is going to make them want the same configuration to start 2014. Long winded way of saying that Drew just doesn't seem to make sense with WMB on this team. If Drew comes back and Xander goes to 3B, is WMB really the guy we'd want in the Ciriaco role?
Since it was mentioned above and since there has been a lot talk about who replaces Cano in NY, why can't Drew play second? Obviously he'd need a bit of work on footwork around the bag, particularly on DPs, but is there something else?
TheRooster said:
I don't think it's so much of a "can't" play second base as much as it is he has never played second base, at least not as a professional. But more so than that, there's the matter of whether he wants to play 2B. He signed with the Sox last winter specifically because he didn't want to move around the infield. Part of that was probably due to it being a pillow contract and he wanted to prove he was still a viable major league SS, but I can't help but think it's indicative of an overall desire to stay at SS for as long as he can.
He ain't moving to second. He's not at that point in his career where he has to consider that, and the very worst thing that can happen to him, after all, is that he takes another one-year pillow deal from the Sox and goes back on the market next year. He obviously wants the security of a multi-year deal, as anyone would. But once you agree to move spots, then you agree that you are moveable, and once you go there you are on the road to super-utility.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
I think a fair contrast is John Valentin, who because he had no leverage (I cant find if he was under contract, or just under team control), really had no choice (other than his 1-day ST walkout) to move over to 2B to make room for Nomar in 1997 (at least until 3Bman Naehring broke for the final time). Drew has leverage. He does not have to play for a team that will play him at 2B.
Obviously, there isn't much he can do if a team signs him, lies, and just pencils him into the lineup at 2B one day, but every player faces that theoretical risk.
(FWIW--he has played EVERY inning of his professional career -- 1100 games -- at SS).
*He* might like another 1-year deal, but do the Sox want to do that, given the downside of having all 3 of Drew, X and WMB on the roster, yet needing to hedge their bets if Drew is only on a one-year deal. (If the Sox dont think all 3 is a problem, then its not an issue.)
This seems pretty easy to fathom. The Red Sox are a better team in 2014 with WMB/X/Drew than with WMB/X/UITBNL
But to sign Drew they have to get rid of Peavster - thus freeing up anywhere between 10 and 15 million.And it's really unlikely they can get rid of a starting pitcher until the SP market shakes down - especially with rumours of big fish like Cliff Lee being available.
Reading the tea leaves from BC's remarks one assumes the Sox think Drew will have signed by then - probably with the first decent multi-year offer he gets.
The Drew discussion is identical to the Orioles' predicament last winter - to move Machado back to SS or to keep Hardy - an alignment which made them a better team in 2013.
As to whether it's better for X's development to be a full time SS in his rookie season that's obviously up to the professionals to evaluate.
Personally I don't bring back Drew - I think once X spends a full year (or , at least a majority of his time) at 3B he's never moving back to SS. Plus , I think this doesn't do much for WMB's development as well - who I think needs an uninterrupted 600 ABs to really get his career going.
But to sign Drew they have to get rid of Peavster - thus freeing up anywhere between 10 and 15 million.And it's really unlikely they can get rid of a starting pitcher until the SP market shakes down - especially with rumours of big fish like Cliff Lee being available.
Reading the tea leaves from BC's remarks one assumes the Sox think Drew will have signed by then - probably with the first decent multi-year offer he gets.
The Drew discussion is identical to the Orioles' predicament last winter - to move Machado back to SS or to keep Hardy - an alignment which made them a better team in 2013.
As to whether it's better for X's development to be a full time SS in his rookie season that's obviously up to the professionals to evaluate.
Personally I don't bring back Drew - I think once X spends a full year (or , at least a majority of his time) at 3B he's never moving back to SS. Plus , I think this doesn't do much for WMB's development as well - who I think needs an uninterrupted 600 ABs to really get his career going.
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