Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Celtics vs. Cavs

[DJnVa]

Game 1 - Sun. April 19, Boston at Cleveland, 3:00 PM, ABC/R
Game 2 - Tue. April 21, Boston at Cleveland, 7:00 PM, TNT
Game 3 - Thu. April 23, Cleveland at Boston, 7:00 PM, TNT
Game 4 - Sun. April 26, Cleveland at Boston, 1:00 PM, ABC
Game 5 * - Tue. April 28, Boston at Cleveland, TBD
Game 6 * - Thu. April 30, Cleveland at Boston, TBD
Game 7 * - Sat. May 2, Boston at Cleveland , TNT

 

[JCizzle]

I went Cavs in four. I think they just have too much talent.

 

[Caspir]

Boston in 7 when Kevin Love punches Lebron in the face on the court, breaking his orbital bone in game 1 after the Cavs go up 30 in the 4th and Lebron takes a selfie with everyone except Love.
 
If they win two games, I'd consider it a pretty big success, yea?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Celtics in 324 and they will dig out of a deep series hole.

The only wildcard is if word comes out of the Cavs locker room that LeBron's mom cant help falling in Love.

 

[simplyeric]

Celtics in 324 and they will dig out of a deep series hole.

The only wildcard is if word comes out of the Cavs locker room that LeBron's mom cant help falling in Love.

Excited for the best of 649 series!

 

[Koufax]

Wildly optimistic, I said Cavs in 5.

 

[Sprowl]

Cavs in four. It was fun while it lasted. :unsure2:

 

[luckiestman]

This gentleman will soon have the second greatest upset in sports history. CELTS IN 7
 

 

[cardiacs]

First of all I must say I really enjoyed this season and loved what the C's accomplished. Very impressed and proud of our team, no matter what happens from now on. 
 
I voted Cavs in 5. I wanted to vote C's could take them to 6 and I think there is a chance we could steal one more but it will take some great coaching. If we can keep the games close, I think Stevens has a few tricks up his sleeve to steal a win or two. If  I were Stevens I would stress running/fast breaks as much as possible to exhaust them and have them go into their bench early and often. An X factor is Sully, if he shake a little more rust off why not try to run the offense through him for stretches to confuse the Cav's defense. If we can keep them off balance and make them run we could cause them some problems and prevent an easy sweep. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Mike Gorman went on CSNNE and picked the Celtics in 6 last night.

 

[nighthob]

He must have got into one of Tommy's juice cups.

 

[teddykgb]

He must have got into one of Tommy's juice cups.

 
Yes, you've made your feelings quite well known on what you think is going to happen.
 
I wouldn't go so far as to predict it, but I think the conditions are there for the Celtics to steal Game 1.  A combination of the Cavs having rested guys leading to a little less sharpness and Stevens watching a ton of film and game planning the opponent should lead to a pretty competitive game.  I point to Stevens watching not because I think he's some super genius but because I think Cleveland really has no choice but to come out and play their game -- they have the 3 best players in this series and getting them the ball as often as possible will have to be the game plan.  This gives the Celtics a small opportunity to throw some wrinkles at them and see if CLE can adjust on the fly.
 
Of course, it's far more likely that Cleveland just shows up and dominates the game start to end.  I'm not crazy.  But the upset sort of plays out this way, I think, if it were to happen.

 

[nighthob]

I actually would agree that Boston stealing game one shouldn't be at all a surprise (I did vote Cleveland in five). Predicting Boston to not only beat the Cavs, but decisively. Well, let's just generously say that the idea requires a little chemical help.

 

[The Social Chair]

Cleveland in 4. Games 2 & 3 will be close. Games 1 & 4 will be blowouts. 

 

[slamminsammya]

Normally I find such splits to be mostly meaningless, but the Celtics are 28-19 since they dealt Jeff Green. That is a 60% winning percentage. The Cavs are a great team, certainly, but I think the Celtics have a better chance than people are giving them.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

... they have the 3 best players in this series and getting them the ball as often as possible will have to be the game plan.  This gives the Celtics a small opportunity to throw some wrinkles at them and see if CLE can adjust on the fly.

 
Like what, are they gonna bring Jim Boeheim in and run the 3-2 zone?  Try a bunch of self-alley-oops?
 
I'm not sure what wrinkles can overcome "Lebron driving the lane and getting 90% of the normally-a-toss-up block-vs-charge calls to go his way".
 
You can throw some trick plays into an NFL game, adjust a scheme or two.  Even a bad MLB or NHL team has a 30-40% chance to win any given game.  But there are many fewer variables in the NBA, and its results have always seemed more predictable to me than any other major sport.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

You can throw some trick plays into an NFL game, adjust a scheme or two.  Even a bad MLB or NHL team has a 30-40% chance to win any given game.  But there are many fewer variables in the NBA, and its results have always seemed more predictable to me than any other major sport.

 
Seriously, a Boston series win would be the greatest upset in Boston sports history. Period. I don't expect it at all but here's to hoping.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I think the shot charts speak volumes about each team.
Cleveland:
 

Boston:
 

 
And btw, bonus, holy shit Houston, no midrange game AT ALL.
 

 

[tbrown_01923]

Nick is there a way to run that shot chart for the run down the stretch?  I suspect it isn't too different, but would find it interesting.

 

[GraysonGrandeGonads]

DeJesus Built My Hotrod, Bernie Carbohydrate, Mike Greenwall,
 
I admire your optimism. Wish I knew what it was based on on.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

What's the defensive plan for Celts?   Is it Crowder starting on LBJ, with Smart perhaps spotting in there on occasion (primarily to see if he can get under James' skin---because he's not big enough to really defend him)?     
 
Interested in what Stevens has in mind.

 

[nighthob]

Crowder on LBJ all day every day.

 

[GraysonGrandeGonads]

Crowder on LBJ all day every day.

Exactly. But also need Avery or Smart to stick to Kyrie agressively, and not help, for every possession that Kyrie is in there

 

[radsoxfan]

Crowder on LBJ all day every day.

Yup, Crowder should get at least 30 min a game for that reason alone. He's the only person on the team with a prayer at slowing down Lebron.

I don't usually care too much about the starting/bench distinction, more about the minutes. But I think in this case it might make sense to start IT, Smart and Crowder and let Turner and Bradley come off the bench. Best combination of offense and D, may as well have them in there when the Cavs have their best lineup in.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It would be great if Evan Turner went way to the end of the rotation. He's absolutely worthless in this matchup on both ends, but particularly on defense, there is no way for them to defend with Turner on the floor.

 

[JCizzle]

Instead of worrying about LBJ, it would have been nice if Smart or Avery could have slowed down Kyrie. He hit some ridiculous shots, but that kind of production against our team's strength really hurts.

 

[radsoxfan]

Kyrie is ridiculously good, so hard to be too upset. The Celtics backcourt D strength is nowhere near as much of a strength as Kyrie's offense.

But I agree, the Celts could do better. I'd like to see Smart on him more often, though he may foul out pretty quickly in that matchup.

 

[radsoxfan]

It would be great if Evan Turner went way to the end of the rotation. He's absolutely worthless in this matchup on both ends, but particularly on defense, there is no way for them to defend with Turner on the floor.

At this point, that will never happen. But 34 minutes from him.... Yikes.

Turner really needs to guard Lebron less (and play less). 15-20 minutes when IT isn't in as another ball handler on the floor would be far preferable.

 

[DJnVa]

Anyone have a gif of that play where Love was awarded a shooting foul when he never actually got possession?

 

[luckiestman]

Anyone have a gif of that play where Love was awarded a shooting foul when he never actually got possession?

Wait I had the game muted because my kids were playing next to me, are you saying they weren't in the bonus? That's awesome

 

[DJnVa]

It happened in the first minute of the 3rd quarter.
 
11:21 Brandon Bass shooting foul (Kevin Love draws the foul) 54-62  
11:21   54-63 Kevin Love makes free throw 1 of 2
11:21   54-64 Kevin Love makes free throw 2 of 2

 

[luckiestman]

It happened in the first minute of the 3rd quarter.
 
11:21 Brandon Bass shooting foul (Kevin Love draws the foul) 54-62  
11:21   54-63 Kevin Love makes free throw 1 of 2
11:21   54-64 Kevin Love makes free throw 2 of 2

 
That's great. I remember the play you are talking about. What did JVG, the preacher and the sycophant say?

 

[Valek123]

 
That's great. I remember the play you are talking about. What did JVG, the preacher and the sycophant say?

 
He said it he wasn't even shooting and that he never had the ball...  He couldn't understand why he was shooting two.
 
The shooting chart above perfectly reflects my thoughts, Boston guards unable to score consistently forwards making good midrange shots and cleaning up the boards with put backs but no real dribble penetration and the Cavs were content with giving up the kick-out three to stop any lane penetration.  Boston just didn't seem to get the outside going when I watched(second half only), and doesn't have that elite offensive talent to rely on to carry a few possessions a game.  They made some great runs, but then Kyrie made some huge shots.  That 3 pointer at the end of the 3rd by Jones(I think) was killer also as it extended the lead to double digits instead of 8 as I recall.
 
I thought it was honestly a good opening game for an away game and first post-season experience for many of the players and the Coach.  Defense struggled for good portions of the second half, rotations under instead of over the top on screens on shooters and slow help D.  The Celtics may be one great or two really good players away from being a very solid dangerous team.  Stevens seems to have gotten a ton out of the talent he has and I'd love to see his systems evolve with a few better shooters.

 

[tims4wins]

ESPN ranked all 80 starters in the playoffs - Celts were ranked 57, 59, 70, 73, 77. Just another reminder of how remarkable a job Stevens has done.
 
http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/12727323/ranking-all-80-playoff-starters-nba

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Amusingly, Jeff Green was tied with Turner as number 77...just adding to the point about how good Stevens has been

 

[radsoxfan]

Also amusingly, Kevin Love is ranked #8 and Danny Green #13.
 
Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving is ranked #22 and Klay Thompson #23.  

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Another nice tidbit from Zach Lowe's article:
 

 
• A great offense has an answer for everything. Like a lot of Cleveland opponents, Boston largely neutralized LeBron–Kevin Love pick-and-rolls by switching — inviting LeBron to drive against Brandon Bass, or Love to post up Jae Crowder/Evan Turner. That’s all well and good, but Cleveland just moves on to a LeBron–Timofey Mozgov pick-and-roll — the one the Cavs prefer anyway, since Love can clear the lane by spotting up around it.

Switching that one leaves a slower center, someone like Tyler Zeller, on LeBron. That’s no good. It’s tempting to think Boston should aim its defense at switching LeBron-Mozgov or LeBron–Tristan Thompson pick-and-rolls — put Bass on Cleveland’s centers and the slower big guy on Love. But then Cleveland could just pivot back to LeBron-Love, or, simpler yet, a pick-and-roll involving Kyrie Irving and a Boston point guard defender too little to realistically switch onto a big. An Irving-LeBron pick-and-roll works fine, too.

That’s especially the case if Boston is playing Isaiah Thomas on Irving. But wait! Maybe Boston could play a smaller lineup, with three like-size wing players (i.e., not Thomas), Crowder at power forward, and Bass at center. They could switch everything! But alas, Boston needs Thomas’s offense — the Celtics died without him in Game 1 — and Zeller is the only Boston big who offers even a hint of rim protection.

The Cavs have a response for every choice.
 

 
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-last-ride-of-the-spurs-dynasty/

 

[wilked]

It's not looking good...

 

[DJnVa]

It's not looking good...

 
Eh, they were in all three games late. It's what we expected.
 
I'm enjoying this Celtics team though.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Eh, they were in all three games late. It's what we expected.
 
I'm enjoying this Celtics team though.

I expected to get blown out in one game in Cleveland. Didn't happen. in fact, both of those games felt winnable at times, not so much last night.

 

[Devizier]

This is about as good an outcome as we could realistically expect. Celtics playing hard, making the Cavaliers sweat. Stevens making himself look appealing to prospective free agents or trade acquisitions.

 

[Devizier]

Evan Turner, always good for the laffs.

https://vine.co/v/ea9bQbQVxQZ

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

I had forgotten how good Lebron is.
 
Seriously, though. We can talk all we want about Jordan and his 6 titles, Russell and his 11, whoever and their whatever, but I'm hard-pressed to come up with a tougher matchup problem than a 6'8" 255 middle linebacker who moves like a point guard. Don't get me wrong - I dislike him intensely. But who on the Celtics guards him? Crowder, as gritty as he is, is giving up 2 inches and 25 pounds...and quickness, too. Shit, who in the League guards him?
 
I used to scoff at his all-time status, but I'm coming around on him being one of the toughest match-ups in NBA history. Name me a player with the physical tools to guard him for 48.
 
Dude is a beast. Straight up. No shame in losing to Megatron.
 
edit: clarity

 

[Cellar-Door]

Leonard is probably the best.
Though good teams can often do it with scheme (Boris Diaw for example did a nice job on him inside, handing him off to Leonard or Green outside).
 
He's probably a top 5 physical mismatch in history.
 
Wilt and Shaq probably are higher to me because no 2 players even could appropriately cover them, they were just too big and strong.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Magic at he 1
Bird at 3
 
Both those guys were talked about for their decision making, heart, character, etc. But both were huge for their position. Bird was just too big for Dr. J for example.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I've never seen anyone give LeBron more fits than Tony Allen. He understands the spacing and angles LeBron is trying to create best as I've seen. It's one reason I find it comical that people call him a dumb player. Defensively in his prime he is/was the best perimeter defender in the game in large part due to the mental aspects.

 

[Devizier]

So, um, did Olynyk intentionally injure Kevin Love? The Cavaliers were chippy as fuck today.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So, um, did Olynyk intentionally injure Kevin Love? The Cavaliers were chippy as fuck today.

Stupid assholish comments by Love. That's all that is worth saying about it.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Well, maybe this puts to bed the prospect of Love coming here.  

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Well, maybe this puts to bed the prospect of Love coming here.  

 
Love was never coming to Boston.  I don't know why people think there was a chance.  If he leaves Cleveland, he is likely going to someplace like LA or a team that is close to contending.