Saw Ian Kennedy mentioned above -- please no. Despite putting up career bests in FIP and K/9, he was still a below average pitcher last year, and his last good season was in 2011. He did get his HBP under control in 2014, but the history there is also a red flag.
Failing Lester, who are your prime targets?
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
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I hate talking about a trade with Philly as that place seems to be run by the patients. However, It would be interesting if a trade could be cobbled together for both Hamels & Lee. I'm not going to try and put a trade package together because I don't have any idea what Philly wants. If Lee can recover well enough from last season a year or two of him could be really interesting, especially if his old ability to beat the Yankees remains.
The key would as it has been depended on Lester. If the Sox bring back Lester a trade of this nature would not be necessary, interesting but not necessary.
The key would as it has been depended on Lester. If the Sox bring back Lester a trade of this nature would not be necessary, interesting but not necessary.
Lee is 6-4 career VS the Yankees, with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
He doesn't appear to be any kind of a Yankee "killer" but these are not your mom's Yankees, so who knows.
He is in fact, much better VS the Red Sox.
Has Kazmir been mentioned?
One of the reasons I want lester, is multiple years of success in the AL East. I don't want Shields, so there really isn;t anyone who would be a 2nd choice for me. Scherzer by default I guess.
I do want our #1 and #2 to be able to put up consecutive years of 125+ ERA+, and although Kazmir doesn't have that recently, he at least has that in his career.
Would sending Cespedes back to Oakland make any sense in a 1-1 deal? (Kazmir is also a FA after 2015 with 11 AAV IIRC)
Would Kazmir consider re-signing here at say 3/45 through 2018?
One of the reasons I want lester, is multiple years of success in the AL East. I don't want Shields, so there really isn;t anyone who would be a 2nd choice for me. Scherzer by default I guess.
I do want our #1 and #2 to be able to put up consecutive years of 125+ ERA+, and although Kazmir doesn't have that recently, he at least has that in his career.
Would sending Cespedes back to Oakland make any sense in a 1-1 deal? (Kazmir is also a FA after 2015 with 11 AAV IIRC)
Would Kazmir consider re-signing here at say 3/45 through 2018?
Can you explain why you like Kazmir better than Shields? I feel the opposite, because I think Shields has been and will be more consistent. 3-4 WAR with xFIP around 3.5-3.8 over the last few years and I see this pretty much going forward for the next couple. Kazmir has bounced all over the place in terms of effectiveness and I can see him being more likely to implode... plus we have to trade for him, whereas Shields will just cost money and likely for short years (3/50-60?).
EDIT: Responding to DtTtB.
EDIT: Responding to DtTtB.
It's purely personality and handedness. I really do not want to root for Shields.EllisTheRimMan said:
I also think Kazmir would come in cheaper and he's younger.
Kazmir scares the shit out of me because he fell off a cliff last year in August and September, you know, when the A's could have really used him. He was also lousy or in the minors 2010 - 2012. Those years were blamed on injuries and mechanics. Red Sox can afford better.
Why are people concerned about the AL East? There was a time when the AL East was the best division and filled with the best hitters. But those days are long gone.
I'm literally terrified of any non-Lester lefties pitching about the Blue Jays.
If it's close to a salary dump, I could see it being worthwhile. Anything requiring real talent and I'd want to explore other options first.Al Zarilla said:
Kazmir just had his first effective season since 2008. In the 5 seasons between he was injured, ineffective or both. Even last season, he fell off a cliff after August 1, posting a 6.05 ERA with a .285/.338/.417 slash line against in 61 IP. It may have been influenced in part by bad luck because his BABIP went from .261 to .337, but as always BABIP doesn't necessarily mean luck alone as it also increases when pitches become more hittable. Considering this, the fact he's 31 and is about to make $13M next year, I'd have no interest in using a trade chip like Cespedes for him or allocating monies that could be spent on a free agent like Shields to acquire him. In fact, I'm not certain I'd take him in a salary dump unless Oakland was going to close to a majority of his freight. I'd rather roll the dice with Webster, De La Rosa or Wright to start the season and turn to Owens, Escobar, Rodriguez, Barnes or Johnson, if necessary, as the season rolls along. He gives me more heartburn than Brandon McCarthy and I reach for the Tums every time his name is mentioned.
This seems like an overbid. Kazmir comes with risks, but he was a great pitcher for the first four months last year, the money is pretty reasonable in this marketplace, and there's no long term commitment (making the money less relevant, given the indications that they're going over the limit for 2015). Assuming his crappy last two months reflected exhaustion rather than injury, they can use their young depth to keep him rested or just replace him if he loses it. If the team is locked into a strategy of filling one rotation slot in FA and one via trade, he's not the first guy to target, but he's not chopped liver.jasail said:
Having finished in last place, 25 games out of 1st place, evidence shows pretty clearly the FO is thinking GFIN: re-signing their 40 year old closer, signing a nose tackle to play 3B for $17M/year, signing a former all star for $19M-$22M/year who can no longer play his position and have to play where he has never played. Given the other geezers: Ortiz at $16M (DH), Napoli at $16M, Victorino at $13M. The team committed $72M to Rusney Castillo.
Last year's can't miss kids missed (JBJ, Middlebrooks, Boagerts). Chris Sale will probably not miss. And he will cost $90-100M less than Jon Lester through 2019 (and with the added protection of club buyouts in 2018, 2019). There is no prospect on the planet that I would keep if I could get Chris Sale on his current contract.
And the Nats probably figure if they put Betts at 2B, they can pretty much give away Zimmerman or Gonzalez still get to the post-season. And we take the money we save not paying through the nose for Lester and sign one of them to an extension. Or maybe a Cespedes for Porcello deal.
Bottom line: given the presence of Cespedes to trade, I expect we still will have a solid core of young position players and pitchers remaining.
Last year's can't miss kids missed (JBJ, Middlebrooks, Boagerts). Chris Sale will probably not miss. And he will cost $90-100M less than Jon Lester through 2019 (and with the added protection of club buyouts in 2018, 2019). There is no prospect on the planet that I would keep if I could get Chris Sale on his current contract.
And the Nats probably figure if they put Betts at 2B, they can pretty much give away Zimmerman or Gonzalez still get to the post-season. And we take the money we save not paying through the nose for Lester and sign one of them to an extension. Or maybe a Cespedes for Porcello deal.
Bottom line: given the presence of Cespedes to trade, I expect we still will have a solid core of young position players and pitchers remaining.
Carroll Hardy said:
Are you advocating trading 6 years of Betts for 1 year of Zimmerman with the hopes that you can extend him? What type of deal do you envision that Zimmerman will be looking for? If he continues to perform at a high level, he'll likely be looking for at least Lester money. Further, if he was amenable to an extension, wouldn't he be discussing one with the Nats?
Correct me if I've misinterpreted your post, but if the end result is no Betts and the "through the nose" Lester money instead gets paid to Zimmerman, how does this possibly benefit the Sox?
Not sure exactly how to structure, but I would like to end up with Chris Sale and either Jordan Zimmerman or Rick Porcello. Instead of spending $160M on Lester and Cespedes, I use it to cover both Sale and a renegotiated deal with a #2 pitcher. Maybe White Sox take Mookie, Owens, what have you. Cespedes to tigers plus whatever.
What benefit does a player one year from free agency have in negotiating an extension after a rent-a-player trade, other than the team blowing him away with an offer.
How often does this happen? People mention it all the time, but I can't remember the last time it actually happened.
How often does this happen? People mention it all the time, but I can't remember the last time it actually happened.
Last one I can find was Dickey. I believe the Mets had a $5m option for 2013, but when traded in December, 2012 to Toronto he agreed to a two year extension with a club option for the third. This stuff is frustratingly hard to Google. It's kind of the opposite of the question I have about a potential Hamels trade (I'm pretty sure it would be the longest length remaining on a contract for a pitcher in a trade, but again really hard to Google.)MakMan44 said:
Right, extending with the the team you've been on is one thing. But trading for a pitcher a year away, "getting a window," and extending him? It's very rare, but it's thrown around here as a viable strategy.MakMan44 said:
Furthermore, it's thrown around like it's a positive thing. Spending pieces to acquire a pitcher for the right to sign him to an above market rate deal (which is generally the only way you're going to get that player to forgo FA) seems backwards to me when you could wait the year for him to hit FA.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Yeah, that's where I found the Dickey extension, but they don't show up on the list of transactions so you have to remember which players were traded around the same time. Even then, it's complicated because teams might not announce the extension right after the trade. A-gon's extension wasn't official until the following April, but it seemed pretty obvious at the time that they had worked out the details at the time of the trade.MakMan44 said:
BarrettsHiddenBall said:
Agreed x2.
I get the appeal of jumping to the best case scenario speculation on the trade front, but picking apart every potential option outside the very best no-brainer types and labeling them off as "unsatisfactory" isn't really adding up. At least if we are talking about deals with Cespedes as the centerpiece going back, who didn't exactly inspire 2012 hype for 2015 or light the world on fire in those last 200+ post-trade at bats either. He has both (select buyer) value and his own set of arguable warts too.
While i am cautiously optimistic we do better, if Cespedes was hypothetically flipped straight up for Kazmir tomorrow it would/should go down as an offseason win for Ben imo. Especially factoring in the current state of our projected starting 5 beyond a bunch of maybes and wishful thinking.
A couple of articles published recently stating that there is not a the need to sign Lester and that the Sox should use available players and prospects to rebuild the rotation.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141206-red-sox-could-cash-in-their-trade-chips-to-bolster-starting-rotation.ece
http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2014/12/pitching_not_lester_the_priori.html
Edit: Local writers.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141206-red-sox-could-cash-in-their-trade-chips-to-bolster-starting-rotation.ece
http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2014/12/pitching_not_lester_the_priori.html
Edit: Local writers.
I want no part in giving Shields 80-90 million. Sign McCarthy, Masterson to a one year deal and look to trade for Ross. Next year, Zimmermann/Cueto/Shark/Latos will be free agents so if you can't sign Lester, pick an option from that litter. No need to handicap yourself by handing nearly 100 million to a 34 year old.
ehaz said:
Like everyone Shields could be a great addition depending on the price/length and the opposite is true as well. If we could get him for 3 years instead of 4, I'd be happy if the Sox overpaid on AAV (in the 3/60 ballpark). McCarthy seems like a long shot, both in terms of health/consistency and he might be harder to get at the right price than we think. It seems very likely if the Sox think he will be a very good pitcher like last year with the MFY, then I think that said team will just outbid them, as happens quite often. After Lester and Scherzer, I view Shields as the safest bet (on short years/long AAV) of the FA crop. Of course if it's 4 or 5 years, I think the Sox will walk away and I would encourage them to do so.
Also, losing Lester necessitates a trade for someone like Porcello or Ross, so I agree with you there... again it will depend on the price in terms of Cespedes + ???
