Farrell out

canderson

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My theory on the why is that he was too resistant to advice from the analytics guys. They were probably telling him to play Lin over Holt and that Brentz would likely be a big upgrade over Chris Young and he just refused. I would believe this before I'd believe clubhouse nonsense.
I believe if anything it's the opposite. I think Farrell wanted more roster construction based on analytics and was told no. Not bring up Brentz is still baffling, I hope Farrell ripped DD's head off for that non-move.

DD is about as unanalytical as you'll find in baseball today.
 

reggiecleveland

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I saw this in the other Farrell thread. Check the record, we played a lot of shitty teams down the stretch and beat up on them, and went 2-6 against the only two playoff teams we played (MFYs and Astros). Our great September was due in a large part to schedule luck.
Also the Yankees in terms of clutch hitting were either really bad or really unlucky.

It would be ironic if Girardi is let go because his team finished secodn because of his inability to get better "luck" from his team and Farrell is let go because it was clear "luck" was a big part of his success.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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My theory on the why is that he was too resistant to advice from the analytics guys. They were probably telling him to play Lin over Holt and that Brentz would likely be a big upgrade over Chris Young and he just refused. I would believe this before I'd believe clubhouse nonsense.
Everything we've ever heard about Farrell is that he has worked very closely with the front office, including the analytics guys to implement strategies and coaching philosophies. Check the threads on the saberseminar that he spoke at. This clearly isn't what caused his dismissal.

If anything, it would be the opposite. Dombrowski wants to move further from an analytics driven philosophy and Farrell wanted no part of that. (I'm not arguing this is definitely the reason, just pointing out that this is far more likely than Farrell not being down with the stats and Dombrowski wanting someone who is.)
 

joe dokes

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Is there any NFL-like rule about when teams can talk to the personnel of other teams still in the playoffs?
 

Harry Hooper

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Ken Rosental called this a couple of minutes before MLBN had it: "educated guess, he's out". I'm paying more attention to Ken from now on.

Just catching up to the thread, but DD said twice he wants a new manager with prior manager or, at least, coaching experience, so, no Varitek, if anybody's thinking Tek. Said you don't talk to other clubs about their in place managers. So, no Lovullo. Said he has a list of potential mgr candidates. Boston is one of three places where some people just don't want the hassle. NY for sure is one of the others. Philly?
Toronto on account of the exchange rate.

I believe DD said the new hire would have pro ball management experience or MLB coaching experience.
 

czar

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The same thing is already going on with Lovullo, who managed pretty much exactly like Farrell, and got swept in the first round of the playoffs.
I noted this in another thread, but anti-JF folks calling for Lovullo -- when a subset of vocal AZ fans are calling for Lovullo's head for leaving SPs in too long and mismanaging the bullpen (particularly Ray over the last week) while getting swept out of the playoffs by LAD -- is high comedy.

I've long said that unless a manager is an awful tactician, it sounds like analytic FO have actually ceded to making decisions based on "soft" skills like handling the clubhouse, keeping veterans happy, etc. It sounds like maybe DD did something like that, although that PC already gives me the feeling that a Tito-esque smear campaign is ready to go if needed.
 

Kielty's Last Pitch

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From Mr. Speier ...
"In the wake of the loss, Red Sox players said that they believed Farrell did “a great job” in 2017, though none who was asked said directly that they believed he should be back next year."

From McAdam ...
"his relationship with Dave Dombrowski features behind-the-scenes tension."

From Drellich ...
“One player agent on Monday spoke of Farrell’s perceived shortcomings in grooming young leaders. It's safe to say at this point that Farrell does not have the room fully behind him. Even the greatest conflict manager may not have been able to reach Price regarding the Eckersley dust-up. But maybe someone else needs to try, because Price isn't going anywhere.”
 

YTF

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I think part of the decision has to stem from the lack offensive production from "the kids'. Based on past performance the talent seems to be there, but the output was much less than expected. Not saying that this is or isn't Farrell's fault, but I have to believe that the step backward that we have seen this season from Bogaerts and Betts has caught DD's attention and if he deems any of that to be on Farrell, he certainly will have concerns about Benintendi and Devers going into next season. Also, sIx of the eight starting position players are young and this is a team that has played sloppy at times particularly on the base paths. With so much of the team's future being on the major league roster now, Dombrowski might have concerns for their continued development at the major league level.
 

joe dokes

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My theory on the why is that he was too resistant to advice from the analytics guys. They were probably telling him to play Lin over Holt and that Brentz would likely be a big upgrade over Chris Young and he just refused. I would believe this before I'd believe clubhouse nonsense.
Since they didn't add Brentz to the roster, we'll never know. And in general, as between Farrell and Dombrowski, only one has spoken extensively and publicly about his belief and understanding of modern analytics. It isn't Dombrowski.
 

joe dokes

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From Mr. Speier ...
"In the wake of the loss, Red Sox players said that they believed Farrell did “a great job” in 2017, though none who was asked said directly that they believed he should be back next year."

From McAdam ...
"his relationship with Dave Dombrowski features behind-the-scenes tension."

From Drellich ...
“One player agent on Monday spoke of Farrell’s perceived shortcomings in grooming young leaders. It's safe to say at this point that Farrell does not have the room fully behind him. Even the greatest conflict manager may not have been able to reach Price regarding the Eckersley dust-up. But maybe someone else needs to try, because Price isn't going anywhere.”

Of those 3, Drellich's got his own axe to grind.
 

ifmanis5

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I'm pretty happy about this and feel it was overdue. Was also starting to feel a little 'Fire Claude' and as an organization you never want to be there. This group needs a new voice and direction.
 

joe dokes

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Like most things, its probably not anything that anyone here has identified as likely.
 

SpaceMan37

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I believe if anything it's the opposite. I think Farrell wanted more roster construction based on analytics and was told no. Not bring up Brentz is still baffling, I hope Farrell ripped DD's head off for that non-move.

DD is about as unanalytical as you'll find in baseball today.
John Henry is DD's boss and he is not unanalytical. And DD has already been told not to trade any more major prospects. JH is running the team.
 

DeadlySplitter

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is this true?

Take Xander's comments yesterday. This isn't verbatim, but he said something along the lines of "you all said we'd get swept, we didn't, we showed you." You also have Mookie saying "at least we won one this year."
 

nvalvo

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JD Martinez scares the shit out of me. Maybe it’s the injuries. Maybe it’s the fact he’s probably going to command north of 160 and has 2 30 homer seasons under his belt. I don’t know. I just see him as a risk. As opposed to giving up talent to go get the sure thing in Stanton.
Injuries scare you, so you want to get Stanton.
 

SpaceMan37

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John Henry wasn't in the room today and DD told him this morning he was firing Farrell.
We have no idea what goes on behind closed doors and are just guessing.

I guess whoever is hired as the new manager will give us an indication of who has the most input on running the team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That's a dick move by DD. I wanted Farrell gone, but there's no reason to influence his ability to land his next gig.
You know that people don't always tell the truth in these sort of situations?

If Farrell had won the WS, would DD have fired him? I doubt it - that would be a first in any sport, wouldn't it?

But if DD had said something to that effect then he would have opened the floors to all of the stupid questions as to whether the Red Sox were constructed to win the WS, etc.

It's better for him just to say what he said and I doubt many people remember this comment the next time Farrell is looking for a job.
 

SpaceMan37

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You know that people don't always tell the truth in these sort of situations?

If Farrell had won the WS, would DD have fired him? I doubt it - that would be a first in any sport, wouldn't it?

But if DD had said something to that effect then he would have opened the floors to all of the stupid questions as to whether the Red Sox were constructed to win the WS, etc.

It's better for him just to say what he said and I doubt many people remember this comment the next time Farrell is looking for a job.
If baseball teams think he's a good manager, he'll get a new job. It's not like chicken and beer and prescription medication abuse limited Tito's options.
 

SpaceMan37

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Curious how you know the bolded.
It was mentioned during the trade deadline and was why they weren't in on making any big moves. I didn't save it. I'm sure it could be a lie, but I tend to believe it because of how willing he is to trade prospects and that he didn't trade any major ones.
 

Average Reds

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John Henry is DD's boss and he is not unanalytical. And DD has already been told not to trade any more major prospects. JH is running the team.
Any support for this beyond your intuition?

Asking only because you are phrasing this as if it is common knowledge and/or a confirmed fact.

Edit: and I am seconds late. But I'll use the opportunity to address your comment.

It was mentioned during the trade deadline and was why they weren't in on making any big moves. I didn't save it. I'm sure it could be a lie, but I tend to believe it because of how willing he is to trade prospects and that he didn't trade any major ones.
The fact that they decided not to move any prospects at the deadline could be an indication that JH has told DD not to trade anymore prospects. Or, it could be that the asking price at the deadline was obscene and that DD, Henry and the entire baseball operations group weren't willing to make any of those deals.

It strikes me as a bit of a stretch to take that fact and interpret it as John Henry running the team and not DD.
 
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Tyrone Biggums

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Injuries scare you, so you want to get Stanton.
Difference is when Stanton is healthy he's still a proven power threat year in and out. JD is not. Stanton also managed to have a few seasons where he's made over 500 plate appearances JD meanwhile has one. Stanton is also a couple years younger than JD. JD has had 2 30 + homer seasons while Stanton has had 4. Stanton has a slightly higher wRC+ over the last few years 149 vs 148. Both guys just came off great seasons. I would rather gamble on a younger player with bigger power potential. With all the big contracts on this roster there is no real margin for error. The person brought in more or less has to work out. Stanton has the bigger upside and probably a higher floor than JD. The contract with Stanton is scary but JD is going to get something at least on par with the Hanley deal in regards to AAV.
 

Kielty's Last Pitch

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I think Farrell's reputation had already taken a hit league-wide.

Moran, Applegate, Escobar's eye-black ... definitely not things you want attached to a manager.
 

SpaceMan37

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Any support for this beyond your intuition?

Asking only because you are phrasing this as if it is common knowledge and/or a confirmed fact.

Edit: and I am seconds late. Rats.
It was a tweet from a Boston reporter around the trade deadline. If you don't want to believe me, don't. That's all I got. I didn't save it and there's no way I'll be able to find it.
 

ehaz

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Was this a dick move by DD or Pete Abe? Honest question because I couldn't hear the press conference.

Because based on that tweet, I can't tell that DD didn't just stick to the facts first, then someone asks "would the decision be different if they won the ALDS?" and he says no. Then pressed for more info, he says no.

I'm not necessarily defending DD here, I'm just looking for context.
The tweet is totally out of context. DD had been asked a different version of the question 100 times and it was getting tiring. His answer to most of them had been along the lines of "we're not getting into a hypothetical."
 

lexrageorge

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Seems like either Pete Abe is taking some liberties with DD's quotes, or the quote is being taken completely out of context. Some other Dombrowksi quotes from the Globe coverage:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/10/11/dave-dombrowski-says-was-time-for-change-with-red-sox-manager-position/WnTiY7mgfkKKXVYJSKFwaM/story.html?p1=Article_Recirculation_Pos2

"I think sometimes change can be better, and that’s why we decided to move forward with this change..."
...
“I want to start by thanking John Farrell for what he has done for the Boston Red Sox organization over the years,” Dombrowski said. “To me, I thought it was an appropriate time to make a change for the betterment of the organization moving forward.”

While he did not elaborate on the specifics of why Farrell was let go, Dombrowski said the move was “not a snap decision” in response to the team’s season-ending loss Monday.

"I’m not going to get into particular situations that really made the final decision"
Seems like standard GM-speak after a firing. Meanwhile, the rest of the Sox management team (Kennedy, Werner, et al) have all publicly expressed their gratitude for Farrell, etc.

The media smear campaign is, to a large extent, out of the team's control.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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This could be a separate thread but is a baseball manager the hardest to qualify/quantity out of all major pro leagues? Especially for a sport that has the most/deepest amount of data and analytics available?

A more direct question is, why is Cora more qualified than others?
 

Eastchop

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John Henry is DD's boss and he is not unanalytical. And DD has already been told not to trade any more major prospects. JH is running the team.
Hope you are right here and that this is what we see going forward. But its a throwback to discussions when Dombrowski was brought on board about why they’d hand over the keys to somebody with such a different philosophy and approach. This manager hire will be very enlightening on how these differences in philosophy have been reconciled within the current system.
 

Average Reds

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It was a tweet from a Boston reporter around the trade deadline. If you don't want to believe me, don't. That's all I got. I didn't save it and there's no way I'll be able to find it.
I answered in the edit of my original post once I saw your response.

Not sure I understand the defensiveness and the sniping. It was/is a fair question.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Difference is when Stanton is healthy he's still a proven power threat year in and out. JD is not. Stanton also managed to have a few seasons where he's made over 500 plate appearances JD meanwhile has one. Stanton is also a couple years younger than JD. JD has had 2 30 + homer seasons while Stanton has had 4. Stanton has a slightly higher wRC+ over the last few years 149 vs 148. Both guys just came off great seasons. I would rather gamble on a younger player with bigger power potential. With all the big contracts on this roster there is no real margin for error. The person brought in more or less has to work out. Stanton has the bigger upside and probably a higher floor than JD. The contract with Stanton is scary but JD is going to get something at least on par with the Hanley deal in regards to AAV.
The Red Sox don't have the trade chips to land Stanton. He's not a realistic option. Martinez only costs money.
 

SpaceMan37

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I answered in the edit of my original post once I saw your response.

Not sure I understand the defensiveness and the sniping. It was/is a fair question.
I just answered it. I didn't mean to sound defensive. I'm not. I know that people don't usually believe someone saying something like that.
 

ehaz

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This could be a separate thread but is a baseball manager the hardest to qualify/quantity out of all major pro leagues? Especially for a sport that has the most/deepest amount of data and analytics available?

A more direct question is, why is Cora more qualified than others?
It seems like the "best" method we have to analyze a managers performance is by W/L compared to expected (pythag) W/L. Which in a way, is kind of silly because you're measuring how well your team did with the runs you scored rather than measuring how many runs you should have scored/prevented with the personnel on the field.
 

Manramsclan

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As far as speculation about the new manager, you'd have to think Brad Ausmus is a candidate.

I'm honestly not sure if that is a good or bad thing.
 

lexrageorge

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The last sentence in the 2nd link indicates that DD was more than willing to play along with ownership's directive:

The important part is that the message from Red Sox ownership to Dombrowski has apparently not resulted in any internal discord.
 

m0ckduck

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I was feeling good about this, and then it sunk in that we just fired the second-best Sox manager of the last... what... 40 years? 50?

Still feeling good about it, but - man - what a rogue's gallery it's been.
 

SpaceMan37

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DD said that the next candidate will probably not be anyone currently in the organization so that probably rules out DiSarcina. Also, the coaches are welcome back if the new manager wants to keep them, so that indicates that it's not some huge clubhouse mess.
 

Al Zarilla

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He's probably #1 on my list. I know a lot of mouth pieces want Varitek, but I really think his demeanor and personality are too similar to Farrell's. I love Varitek and what he's meant to this organization but I would be more comfortable handing the manager's job to Cora.
I don't see that at all about Varitek being like Farrell. Tek always sounded like a people guy and guys like Pedro, Millar, Beckett, et al had nothing but the best to say about him as a teammate, analytic guy, etc. Of course, how can we as fans really tell? Farrell always struck me as a no personality guy though.
 

RedOctober3829

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This should have legs as we know the local beat reporters can't get any scoops.


Red Sox will go through the process of interviewing candidates, but Alex Cora--with Red Sox history--may well emerge as next Boston skipper.
 

Green Monster

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Question for the analytics crowd: Is there such a thing as WAR for managers? If so, how does everyone stack up??