Garbage time again: what's the plan this time?

The Gray Eagle

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Front office:
The evaluators need to seriously be evaluated, starting now. If they don't want to replace anyone, (Baird should go ASAP IMO) then ownership should probably at least bring in an outside consultant to give an unbiased take on the front office. Most of the people in the front office have been with the team for a long time in various roles. They need some fresh voices and fresh ideas from outside the organization.  
 
Farrell: he looked good in 2013, but the rest of his managing career has been lousy. He's got one real outlier season on his record, and guess which one it is? Ownership seems to love his square jaw and steely demeanor, so he probably isn't going anywhere. 
 
Trading deadline:
Assuming that we are keeping the front office as-is for at least the rest of the season, then we need to NOT make any big trades. This group can't evaluate their way out of a wet paper bag lately. Letting them make a big trade now is way too risky for the future. 
 
No point in talking about being "sellers." You can't sell a bunch of junk that no one wants to buy. Sure if someone wants to take it off our hands, we eagerly thank them. Put our used-TV-type of players like Breslow, Napoli and company out on the sidewalk on trash day, but when you get up the next morning, don't expect anyone to have picked it up for you. Some guys will have to be DFA'd eventually probably. 
 
No one who has a role for next year should be sold off. Obviously anyone is available at the right price, but dumping a Miley or Tazawa just opens up a new hole for next year that needs to be filled. And this front office probably wouldn't get anything good back or be able to fill the new hole. So don't do it.
 
Lineup:
There is a lot of work to be done with all the playing time still to come at the big league level. Bradley and Castillo need to be promoted to Boston and put in the lineup frequently to see what they can do and so they can have a chance to try to figure it out in the majors. More info is better, find out whatever we can. If you have decent scouts, they can learn a lot from watching a guy play regularly in the majors for a couple of months. If. 
 
Hanley might as well play a lot in LF, to see if he can get any better. If he can't then at least we'll know it. It doesn't matter at this point if it costs us runs. 
 
Ortiz and Pedroia should be rested as much as possible with next year in mind. Holt shouldn't be played into the ground like he was last year in garbage time, when he played every single inning for a couple meaningless months and then wore down. 
 
Sandoval? Who knows? Might as well play him a lot because if you bench him he'll just gain even more weight. Who could have ever foreseen that her might have fitness issues after being give a huge long-term contract??
 
With Swihart, the priority needs to be what is best for his long term development. The team seems to have decided that he is ready to play in the majors, so if he is on the roster, he needs to play a lot. Not necessarily every day, but played the right amount for his long term good. If he struggles and needs a break, he should get one. If he needs to work with a lot of different pitchers, then make sure he does, without worrying about the results of any one game. 
 
If this front office can be trusted, then they should go out and get a bargain basement first baseman for cheap who can be controlled next year and beyond, from another team's bench or AAA team. A cheap, interesting bat kind of guy you can stick at first part time that our division rivals seem to be able to find, like a Pearce, Paredes or Colabello type. We have a hole there for next year and a couple months of playing time to allot to someone who might be interesting. Maybe you could bring up Craig, Nava, Shaw or Peguero and let them try (though Craig's contract would be an issue and the 6'5" 260-pound Peguero still hasn't even been given an inning at first base in Pawtucket yet, for some reason.) But we might as well try to find someone who might be a cheap 1B option for next year, since we have the playing time available. 
 
Pitching:
Wright needs to stay in the rotation, to see if he can be a useful arm eventually. A few crappy starts are to be expected, but so what? Maybe he does well and shows that he might be a decent 5th starter next year. Or maybe you find out that he never will be. Either way, more info is good. This is a chance to figure out what he is. 
 
Johnson needs a good long run of starts, again with the expectations that there will be some bad ones. Pitchers need to learn at the big league level and work out their issues. This garbage time is perfect for that. 
 
Porcello looks like a guy who has been pitching hurt. If he is hurt, then he needs to admit it and shut it down. If he really isn't hurt, then he needs to be fixed, and garbage time is perfect for figuring that out. 
 
Kelly is an issue. He is still starting in the minors, so maybe he should come back up and start in the majors instead. Find out if he can be a decent starter next year or not. If not, then try him in the bullpen. 
 
Buchholz needs to do whatever is best for his 2016 season. If that means sitting out the rest of the year, then that's what he does. No pitching him until he is 100% ready. 
 
Rodriguez has some real issues with pitching from the stretch. They need to do whatever is best for his long-term development. If he needs to go back down to get things fixed, then do it. If he needs to fix at in the majors, then fine. But he needs to be protected. You can't keep running him out there to give up 9 or 7 runs in the majors, that could be damaging to him in the long run. He gave up the runs today so quickly that this time there wasn't much Farrell could do. But it's happened a few times now, he needs to be ready for it. Three guys get on base against him in an inning then a reliever needs to get warming and the team needs to start stalling so no more horrific innings like today's happen. He has a ton of upside, but young pitchers are usually really up and down, so be ready for that. Don't expect him to be our #2 starter next year just because he had some good starts in June and July of this year, he's still young and there will be growing pains. 
 
If/when Owens would benefit from being in the majors, he should be promoted. But not until it's best for his long term development.
 
The bullpen should be filled with players we control beyond this year. Barnes should come back when he's ready. Young pitchers struggle frequently, it doesn't mean he stinks forever or is washed up. He needs more chances to figure it out at the big league level. 
 
Escobar has been terrible since coming back from injury, and Pat Light has been terrible since being promoted to AAA, but maybe one of them gets straightened out over the next month or so. If so they should get a shot in the majors. Might as well give Hembree a shot too. No Way Ramirez doesn't look ready, but maybe after some more time in the minors, he'll be more ready for another shot. 
 
No point overworking Tazawa or Uehara. They need to be used gently and save their bullets for next year. 
 
To make room for some of these promotions, we'll probably have to DFA some guys currently on the roster. It'd be sad to see World Champs like Napoli or Victorino get dumped, but that's the business. Making use of the next 2+ months of garbage time needs to be the priority. Again. 
 
 

Stanley Steamer

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I'm most concerned and curious about what they should do at the top. Should they get rid of BC, or Farrell, or both? I really don't think "neither" is a reasonable choice anymore. This is a team with both flaws and talent, like any other, but I am feeling that Farrell isn't the right guy to lead them. Ultimately, his job is to make the best of what he's got to work with, and I don't see him doing that. He had a great run in 2013 but has been mediocre otherwise. It's hard to see what else he can do at this point; he seems played out.
That doesn't excuse the front office for tying his hands, especially on the pitching front. Despite votes of confidence at all times from the owners (who likely are the only winners at this point), the FO has a sketchy track record and is running out of good will.
The bottom line is back-to-back poor seasons, 3 in 4, is not satisfactory for this organization, given the financial resources and strength of the minor league program. Obviously, luck has something to do with it (see other 1 in 4), but at some point I think it's reasonable to make a change for change's sake, whether now, or at the end of the season. I guess some would suggest you hire a GM first, then let him pick the coach, but I don't know that it really matters that much. I do think finding the right coach matters, when a strong jaw and acceptance of analytics isn't necessarily enough.
 

Rasputin

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`The front office is fine.
 
I am utterly ambivalent about the manager. If there's one to bring in that would actually be an upgrade, go for it.
 
Koji, Vic, and Hanigan might bring in something of value. It won't be much, but maybe something better than a lottery ticket if we get lucky.
 
Play the kids.
 
That means Johnson and Rodriguez are in the rotation no matter who else is healthy unless and until they bump up against an innings limit. Fuck it, six man rotation, put Owens in there too, keep everyone's innings down. Wright is the lowest man on the totem pole. Owens next lowest. If that means the only way to get Owens major league innings is out of the bullpen, I'm good with that.
 
Get Papi 19 more home runs. Don't care how. Just do it so he can retire and we can move Ramirez out of left.
 
Bring up Castillo and JBJ and play them. With Vic gone, you could just play them + Betts in a rotation in center and right plus whatever time Ramirez isn't in left.
 
Kill Breslow. Play Barnes. Don't care. He needs some time to adjust to the bigs. Why not now? 
 
I want to see Marrero, Castillo, and JBJ getting some significant playing time. Not starter level playing time necessarily, but a heck of a lot more than most benchwarmers.
 
If Buchholz is healthy and there's a good deal to be had, make it.
 

SydneySox

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This isn't a computer game. Suggestions of benching Pedroia and Ortiz ignore at least two things; one, that they're real people with real motive to play; and, two, that those players went through a speculative disaster of a rebuilding year just last year.
 

AB in DC

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Rasputin said:
 
Koji, Vic, and Hanigan might bring in something of value. It won't be much, but maybe something better than a lottery ticket if we get lucky.
 
 
Why Hanigan?  The team needs an experienced catcher to help the pitching staff (esp Porcello) get through some issues.  
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Rasputin said:
`The front office is fine.
 
I am utterly ambivalent about the manager. If there's one to bring in that would actually be an upgrade, go for it.
 
Koji, Vic, and Hanigan might bring in something of value. It won't be much, but maybe something better than a lottery ticket if we get lucky.
 
Play the kids.
 
That means Johnson and Rodriguez are in the rotation no matter who else is healthy unless and until they bump up against an innings limit. Fuck it, six man rotation, put Owens in there too, keep everyone's innings down. Wright is the lowest man on the totem pole. Owens next lowest. If that means the only way to get Owens major league innings is out of the bullpen, I'm good with that.
 
Get Papi 19 more home runs. Don't care how. Just do it so he can retire and we can move Ramirez out of left.
 
Bring up Castillo and JBJ and play them. With Vic gone, you could just play them + Betts in a rotation in center and right plus whatever time Ramirez isn't in left.
 
Kill Breslow. Play Barnes. Don't care. He needs some time to adjust to the bigs. Why not now? 
 
I want to see Marrero, Castillo, and JBJ getting some significant playing time. Not starter level playing time necessarily, but a heck of a lot more than most benchwarmers.
 
If Buchholz is healthy and there's a good deal to be had, make it.
Ras, I don't know how you can say the front office is fine when this is the 3rd time in 4 years that they will probably finish in last. I think a lot of it falls on having Baird as a top talent evaluator. That's just my opinion as aside from the Miller trade and the salary dump one it seems like this team has been taken to the cleaners. I do agree with some of your points.

If Buchholz is healthy and someone is offering you pretty good talent in return you have to at least consider it. The guy is an enigma and while he's great when he is on and healthy when he's off its an absolute train wreck.

Breslow needs to go. He needed to go last month. While I understand that Barnes is not setting the world on fire it is still a SSS. I'd rather throw him out there than Breslow.

At this point the team probably doesn't have room for Owens unless they go to a 6 man rotation which would leave the bench short or the bullpen short. So for your plan to succeed you would need Barnes on call for 2 innings a night or 13 pitchers.

Sox have Nava coming back and by all accounts will be on the 25. What can you reasonably expect to get for him? You would need to move him and Victorino in order to make room for JBJ. Even then based on his contract alone Castillo is ahead in the pecking order.

Marrero doesn't make sense.Unless you plan on sending Panda on a vacation or the 1st and thus getting rid of Napoli and making Holt the full time 3B.

I think moving Koji needs to happen. Lots of these teams that are in GFIN mode would give up quite a bit for him. At 40 years old you would need to temper expectations but could get some solid talent returned.
 

NDame616

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I don't see the purpose of benching Pedroia and Ortiz to prepare for next season. If that's the case, limit Miley's starts, and you may as well bench X and Betts so they are fresher for 2016.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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JBJ needs to be given a real shot, or traded as his stock is probably at a pretty high point right now.mid prefer they keep him and play him, and let him adjust to the majors.

Same with Castillo, though I question his trade value at present. I really want a long term OF of Castillo, Betts, and JBJ. I think it would be a hell of a defensive OF, with a ton of athleticism.

Sandoval has to play. There's really no way around that.

The easiest thing at is point is to scrap Hanley in LF and try him at 1b. It opens up a needed OF spot, immediately improving the OF defense considerably, and it also improves 1b offense considerably. The question, of course, is whether he can actually play 1b. Who knows. I ought his issue at short was his diminishing, statuesque range, not his ability to field grounders that he can actually get to. If that's true, then 1b could work, and it would immediately solve a lot of problems. His bat plays just fine at 1b. When Papi retires, Hanley becomes the DH. And even next year, perhaps Travis makes his way to the big league roster to play some, and Hanley platoons wi Papi at DH, and when he does, Travis plays first. Maybe.

Swihart must get most starts.

Check the market for Clay. If he's heathy, I think he could fetch a lot from a contender. He just is too inconsistent and injury prone for my tastes, and think he has more value for a contending team. Don't simply trade him to trade him, but perhaps there's a good deal to be made.

See what the market is for Koji. Deal Victorino and Napoli, almost no matter what you get for them. Just to open up spots if nothing else. Let Barnes learn at the major league level. Let Johnson have an extended tryout here.

This team can actually be interesting the last two months, even if they're not contending.
 

jk333

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The 2015 Red Sox have given up the most runs in the AL. Defensively, Hanley and Panda have been terrible which has hurt the pitching. I'd like to see Hanley at first base. The last two years he was a -3 guy at 3b in LA. He's big now but traditionally, first basemen have fewer chances than other positions. It would also improve LF defense. Also, Napoli has not been highly rated defensively; I'd like to think Hanley could match his defensive numbers.
 
This would allow the Sox to use $$$ this offseason on improving the pitching.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Move to a 6 man rotation through the rest of the year:
Clay (when he's back, obvz), Miley, Rick, Eddie, Brian Jonestown, Kelly
 
I don't think Wright should be anything more than long relief/spot starter if he's on the 25 man in '16.  
Kelly still has potential as a starter and I'd like to explore that through the remainder.
I don't have faith in Johnson as a full time starter but I think he should be watched to see if there's anything there.
 
Add Owens to the bullpen just to face ML batters with an eye on him starting again in Pawtucket but making it up as a trade chip or as future starter.
Give Barnes more bullpen appearances.  I still think he has a potential closer in him (and I don't mean that there's some other closer that's diddling him...).
Deal Koji.  He's the one piece we have with some real value- good BP arms always end up being worth more this time of the season than any other.
 
Off-season give Hanley a 1B mitt and get him out of LF.  I think he could be a good 1B (or at least way better there than LF).  Get JBJ and Castillo up.   We're stuck with Panda at 3rd at least for another year or two.  
The OF in '16 could be Castillo in LF, Betts in CF and JBJ in RF.  Holt is backup OF.  
 

smastroyin

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I don't mind trying Hanley at 1B if he's up for it.  But there's really not a great reason he shouldn't be able to learn LF.  It's not like he doesn't have athleticism.  
 
I shudder at the idea of forcing Ortiz into retirement to solve the Hanley Ramirez problem, especially since you then have to rely on two of JBJ, Castillo, and Craig to be good enough major leaguers next year that you don't miss Ortiz.  Yeah, I know, platoon DH, how useless, but he's going to give you 400 PA of 900ish OPS against RHP this year.  You'll miss that if you jettison him.  Roster flexibility is only worth something if you have worthwhile players to fill in.  I would also just let Ortiz face LHP and see if he can work it out this year.
 
I agree with everyone that they need to figure out if they can plan on JBJ.
 
Castillo I hope is attitude not ability, I'm guessing he has some goals to accomplish in AAA.  I would get him up too, but not at the cost of figuring out JBJ.  I know I'm 3 seconds away from a Rudy post about what JBJ has posted so far in his career and what else do we really need to know.  
 

TheoShmeo

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The problem with getting rid of Ben Cherington is that it's very unclear what the extent of the Trio's involvement was in the Lester negotiations and the various signings of the last year or so.
 
If, as I suspect, they (and I am not interested in parsing among them) were intimately involved in all of the larger calls and the general direction the team has taken, then firing BC is kind of lame.  And hugely unfair.  That is, unless they plan to replace him with a strong enough voice such that they would take a massive step back from personnel decision making.  Not that I am endorsing Ben in any way.  But if they fire him, they need to effectively fire themselves along with him.
   
 
 

j44thor

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Sorry but the FO is far from fine.  Whoever signed off on the Lackey deal should be gone.  We took a high quality chip and turned it into negative return that was not at all expected at the time of the trade.  Wishcasting should never be part of the FO strategy yet that is exactly what they did when taking on Allen Craig.  I'm hoping that is all on Allan Baird and not systemic of a larger issue.
 
The Porcello signing is also questionable if only because of the glut of FA pitchers that are equal to significantly better than 2011-2014 Porcello.  Not all of them are going to get paid since there are only so many high payroll teams that can take on a 20M starting pitcher.  Currently Porcello has the 15th highest cap hit among all starting pitchers next season, safe to say he will be among the top 25.  Only 36 starting pitchers currently have a cap hit above 10M in 2015 and 2016.  Bidding against yourself is never a sound strategy yet that is exactly what BOS did in resigning Porcello before he had thrown a pitch for them.
 
There are a fair amount of moves that need to be made to turn this team around but the most important one should come at the top, particularly around MLB talent evaluation.  Obviously no complaints around the minor league prospects.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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I posted this in the other thread, but it probably belongs here.
 
The opacity with which they run this thing is such a cop-out. You never know who's responsible for what, so people are left to speculate. Who's got the power, who's losing it, who messed up the Lester negotiation, etc. Even the "Lucchino-bad, everybody else-good" meme no longer fit quite as nicely. They've made it so you don't really know who is to blame for this - also helped by the fact that if you ask any of them, they say decisions are collegial and all take responsibility. Pretty crafty - but it'd be good to know who's the problem here - other than the major league evaluation (given the results, we know that's Allard Baird, lol).
 
In the end, I don't see how they go through this without making material changes to the Front Office. I don't know that it's Ben (may well have to be), but it has to be somebody in a prominent position, so there's at least a sense that some action is being taken. Coming in last place three years out of four just can't be acceptable.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Never mind Lester. Just look at some of the recent acquisitions Cherington has brought in.With the exception of Hanley (oh and De Aza I guess, which is a bigger indictment than his failures, quite honestly), they have all sucked horribly:

Panda: OPS+ 90
Castillo: 51
Craig: 22

Miley: ERA+ 89
Porcello: 69
Kelly: 70
Jedi: 71

That's a ton of money tied up in uniformly terrible performances. The Phillies could point to those guys and laugh, and they're 33-62. That list should get Cherington (and Baird) fired. Like, tomorrow. I hear Jerry DiPoto's available (and has a 2004 WS ring from the Sox as he was a scout that year). I'd hire him. He couldn't possibly do worse.
 
Oh and it certainly looks like they blew the draft pick spent on Trey Ball.
 
So of course Cherington should be fired. The team sucks for the second year in a row, he spent a ton of money on guys giving below replacement level performances and there's been zero improvement from the day they fired Nieves.
 
Farrell can go too. He is clearly incapable of getting the team to play well, they still run into a billion outs on the basepaths and the pitching (supposed to be his strength) sucks. His in-game decisions are bewildering, to say the least, and while he says smart things in his pressers none of that translates to games.
 
Clean house baby.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah---they need to sweep it clean, starting at the top.
 
I want JBJ and Castillo playing, but they can't bench Hanley, so I don't know what they could do. How heavily would they need to subsidize a trade for him or Sandoval? Do they even want to? If they did (honestly NO ONE thought we could offload Crawford) could they put Hanley at 3B or 1B if they deal Nap?
 
But somehow they need to find out what Castillo can do with consistent big league ABs, give JBJ another shot, and let Swihart stay up.
 
If they can get anything for Victorino and Napoli, do so. The same with Koji. Let Tazawa close.
 

NDame616

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It may be a topic for a different thread, but it's been discussed a lot randomly throughout every thread (kind of like trading for Hammels) but how much of the blame is put on Cherington and the front office vs the ownership group?
 
Was it Ben's fault for signing these guys, or was it the ownership group telling them they won't pay for high priced pitchers in the 25+M AAV group, and Cherington was handcuffed in terms of who he COULD get, so he upgraded the rotation as best he can, spent on the biggest bats available and hoped for the best.
 
(and I think we should fire Cherington and Farrell, but I'm wondering how much actual blame should be on ownership here)
 

The Tax Man

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I'm not opposed to a cleaning house of Cherington/Baird/Farrell. I think its probably the right move. I'm not sure I'd do it midseason but that's another topic.
 
I think the Sox only plan of action is to circle their wagons around their glut of 19-23 year old talent. I wrote about it today for .com but they've got 4 young MLBers and a dozen on the farm that are high end talent that are performing well this year. I think the Sox need to see if JBJ, Castillo, and Travis Shaw can be counted on next year. I'd give 60% of the starts to Swihart. I'd consider moving Hanley to 1B/3B which may necessitate a Pablo to first move. I'd trade anyone but Pedroia or Ortiz. I think Victorino and Napoli have to be dumped off the Tobin if no one is willing to even eat a portion of their contracts. 
 

Hagios

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Panda: OPS+ 90
Castillo: 51
Craig: 22

Miley: ERA+ 89
Porcello: 69
Kelly: 70
Jedi: 71
 
Cherington isn't the only one who got these guys wrong. Steamers, Pecota, Marcels, and every other projection system got them wrong too. BC assembled an 89 win team on paper. What more is he supposed to do? How much insider knowledge over publicly available projection systems is he supposed to have? 
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Hagios said:
 
Cherington isn't the only one who got these guys wrong. Steamers, Pecota, Marcels, and every other projection system got them wrong too. BC assembled an 89 win team on paper. What more is he supposed to do? How much insider knowledge over publicly available projection systems is he supposed to have? 
 
The games aren't played on paper, they're played inside little boxes in our living rooms.
 
Life is hard. He is supposed to sign guys who will play well. When EVERY GUY he signs falls flat on their face like this, it's well worth wondering if Cherington should keep his job. There is a serious problem with his scouting/analysis/choices in player acquisition.
 
This is a results-based business. His results have been both terrible and expensive. He needs to be fired.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Up to this point, I've been against forcing a move of Hanley to first, but it's time.  The Sox have a glut of outfielders that need playing time, and a real scarcity of first baseman replacements.  Napoli clearly isn't a part of the team's future, so it's time to move on.  Same with Victorino.  Use the rest of the season to see if Hanley fills the void at first going forward, and what Castillo and JBJ can do with regular playing time.
 

Toe Nash

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The drafting and development and amateur scouting appear to be more or less fine. Ball and Castillo are not looking like hits relative to their draft position / hype, but lots of other things have gone right. That's good because developing pre-arb talent is basically the most important task of a "front office" -- having Betts, Bogaerts and more on the way can paper over a lot of other mistakes.
 
The two major things that aren't fine are:
 
1. their MLB scouting / analysis and the decisionmaking process there. The mistakes with FA signings and trades are far too many and those are the places that have the biggest risk -- when you guarantee >$100m to someone you need to recoup solid value for at least the first few years of the deal.
 
2. Somewhat related, their MLB scouting with regard to strategy and upcoming opponents -- "gameplanning" if you will. There is no excuse for being swept and scoring 4 runs in 4 games when you have had 4 extra days to review film and stats on the opposing team. Similarly there is no excuse for being so poor against your own division -- the teams you see the most. Since Farrell took over, they are 90-102 (.469 W%) against the AL East and 120-105 (.533) against everyone else. Adding in the Bobby V year, they are 116-148 (.439) against the ALE and 163-152 (.517) against everyone else.
 
This is probably a failure on multiple levels, from collecting and finding the "right" information to communicating it to the coaches to the coaches communicating it to the players to the players executing, but it needs to be seriously evaluated.
 

DJnVa

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So, what's a perfect trade deadline?
 
Some contending team suffers an injury at 3B and we send them a heavily-subsidized Sandoval. Napoli and Victorino are dealt for organizational depth, maybe a C level prospect. Hanley moves to first, JBJ and Castillo come up and we have a pretty stellar OF defense, Holt gets 3B the rest of the way.
 

JimD

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
This is a results-based business. His results have been both terrible and expensive. He needs to be fired.
 
Just curious, where does the 2013 World Championship fit into this narrative?
 
If they fire Ben, they better be bringing in Billy Beane or luring Brian Sabean from the Giants, because I don't trust turning this over to a retread or the next wonderkid GM.
 

czar

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Random thoughts:
 
I think saying Ball is a scathing indictment of the FO's amateur scouting is a bit harsh. Yes, Ball has performed below expectations, but plenty of great FOs have occasionally whiffed on top-10 picks. It happens. That says nothing of the fact that Ball is still a 21-year-old with a 55-60 fastball.
 
No one is going to take Buchholz in a trade. That was an interesting discussion 2 weeks ago, but the Red Sox are now in "do we pick up his option?" mode, not "what can we get for him?" since I'm assuming he won't see game action until at least the middle of next month (and he's not getting through waivers to be moved post-7/31).
 
I'm fine with moving payroll, especially dead payroll this year/next (Victorino, Napoli, Koji) to get under the LT if it makes the FO more amenable to going over the LT in future seasons.
 
I know it seems reactionary, and I wouldn't eat a ton of money to do it, but I am totally with the group that would sell off Hanley and/or Sandoval (Sandoval being preferable) for nothing if the option arose. The Sandoval signing, in particular, was lambasted by many in the off-season and moving one would free up a bit of the corner IF/OF logjam we have going on -- esp. since I forsee Sandoval possibly outgrowing 3B as soon as next year.
 
You need to give Rodriguez and Johnson run, especially if you (the FO) do indeed believe it takes rookies 20-30 starts to acclimate to the big league level. Honestly, I wouldn't be wholly against giving the birthday boy Henry Owens (23 today) a couple months, even though his rates haven't been stellar at McCoy.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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JimD said:
 
Just curious, where does the 2013 World Championship fit into this narrative?
 
EDIT: Sorry, you were referencing Cherington. The following still fits for JF though.
 
 
A clear and obvious outlier in John Farrell's career.
 
Here's his winning percentages:
 
Toronto: .500 4th place
Toronto: .451 4th place
 
Boston: .599  World Series
Boston: .438  5th place
Boston: .452  5th place
 
 
Now, if the Sox crater and win 70 or fewer games that would mean that each year he managed a team they won fewer games than the year before.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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The hardest thing about this trade deadline is the need to stand pat with the roster.
 
The Sox simply can't afford to allow Cherington and Baird to manage another roster overhaul. Pro talent evaluation has been spotty since Theo left for the Cubs, but the group's recent track record is just plain awful. There's virtually nobody on the MLB roster that anyone would want to trade good value to acquire, and last season's roster overhaul has gotten the team last season's results.
 
It's hard to believe this team is looking at its third last-place finish within the last four seasons.
 

NDame616

will bailey
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Jul 31, 2006
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czar said:
Random thoughts:
 
I think saying Ball is a scathing indictment of the FO's amateur scouting is a bit harsh. Yes, Ball has performed below expectations, but plenty of great FOs have occasionally whiffed on top-10 picks. It happens. That says nothing of the fact that Ball is still a 21-year-old with a 55-60 fastball.
 
No one is going to take Buchholz in a trade. That was an interesting discussion 2 weeks ago, but the Red Sox are now in "do we pick up his option?" mode, not "what can we get for him?" since I'm assuming he won't see game action until at least the middle of next month (and he's not getting through waivers to be moved post-7/31).
 
I'm fine with moving payroll, especially dead payroll this year/next (Victorino, Napoli, Koji) to get under the LT if it makes the FO more amenable to going over the LT in future seasons.
 
I know it seems reactionary, and I wouldn't eat a ton of money to do it, but I am totally with the group that would sell off Hanley and/or Sandoval (Sandoval being preferable) for nothing if the option arose. The Sandoval signing, in particular, was lambasted by many in the off-season and moving one would free up a bit of the corner IF/OF logjam we have going on -- esp. since I forsee Sandoval possibly outgrowing 3B as soon as next year.
 
You need to give Rodriguez and Johnson run, especially if you (the FO) do indeed believe it takes rookies 20-30 starts to acclimate to the big league level. Honestly, I wouldn't be wholly against giving the birthday boy Henry Owens (23 today) a couple months, even though his rates haven't been stellar at McCoy.
 
If Buchholz returns in, say, 3 weeks, pitches well in AAA and in 2 ML starts, while his elbow is signed off by James Andrews, I see a 100% chance a team takes him off waivers in hopes they have to spend a few million bucks for the balance of the season and deal with his option after. The only question is if a team takes him, do the Sox pull him back
 

czar

fanboy
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NDame616 said:
 
If Buchholz returns in, say, 3 weeks, pitches well in AAA and in 2 ML starts, while his elbow is signed off by James Andrews, I see a 100% chance a team takes him off waivers in hopes they have to spend a few million bucks for the balance of the season and deal with his option after. The only question is if a team takes him, do the Sox pull him back
 
Oh, there's a 100% chance a healthy Buchholz gets claimed on waivers.
 
But if he's healthy, I doubt the Sox would let him walk (for nothing) over a couple mil. Seems way more reasonable to let him pitch out the year and evaluate how healthy he is, as healthy Buchholz is a slam dunk $13m option pickup.
 

BosRedSox5

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Sep 6, 2006
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I am nowhere near as well acquainted with the intricacies of the Red Sox front office as some of you, but I don't understand the hate boner most fans seem to have for Baird. He was a disastrous GM for the Royals (though, in blind squirrel finding a nut fashion he drafted Greinke) but that was years ago. Can anyone accurately say what he does for the Red Sox? A Senior VP of Player Personnel can have a wide array of responsibilities under their purview. Which duties get delegated to other employees can have a big impact. The Senior VP of Player Personnel for one franchise could have a very different day to day schedule than the VP of Player Personnel for another franchise. Their jobs may not even be that similar. 

I keep hearing/seeing that he's our "top talent evaluator". Is that true? For all most of us know he could be a really good administrator, but not have the pieces in his staff to be as effective as he should be in his current position. Or he could be horseshit. 

The only people who really know are the people who have kept him employed for 9 years and have consistently promoted him. 
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
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NDame616 said:
 
 The only question is if a team takes him, do the Sox pull him back
 
100% yes. There's no way they'd lose him on waivers.
 
He's not expensive and his contract has club options, which means if he pitches well, he's both a relative bargain and tradable.
 

NDame616

will bailey
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Jul 31, 2006
2,356
czar said:
 
Oh, there's a 100% chance a healthy Buchholz gets claimed on waivers.
 
But if he's healthy, I doubt the Sox would let him walk (for nothing) over a couple mil. Seems way more reasonable to let him pitch out the year and evaluate how healthy he is, as healthy Buchholz is a slam dunk $13m option pickup.
 
DrewDawg said:
 
100% yes. There's no way they'd lose him on waivers.
 
I agree they wouldn't just let him walk, but maybe the Sox would package Hanley/Sandoval with him and try to pull a mini Punto deal
 

ShaneTrot

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Yeah, to say that the front office is OK is ludicrous. If the current pattern holds, they will be the owner of the 3rd AL East last place finish in the last four years. News flash, the AL East is terrible this year. If you like this front office, you should buy some stock in Blackberry, I hear they have a future.
 
How can a team that has such a great farm system, and a huge financial advantage blow this much? Easy, as SJH said everyone that they trade for or sign at the Major League level is terrible. Not replacement level, just terrible. OK Miley is not terrible, he is just mediocre.
 
Every team seems to have 2 or 3 shut down relievers that you dread seeing. Hell, the Royals have 5 of them and two they got off the scrap heap this year, Madson and Morales. Besides Tazawa, the Sox have not developed any. 
 
Does anyone trust Cherrington to get value for veterans in a trade? Does anyone want to ses him trade highly regarded prospects for a franchise cornerstone? I don't, his judgement is supect in my book.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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JimD said:
 
Just curious, where does the 2013 World Championship fit into this narrative?
 
If they fire Ben, they better be bringing in Billy Beane or luring Brian Sabean from the Giants, because I don't trust turning this over to a retread or the next wonderkid GM.
 
The 2013 World Champion year stands out as a tremendously enjoyable, totally fluke season.
 
The other 3 years Ben has been the GM have resulted in last-place finishes. You do the math.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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On the position player front, the moves to make seem fairly obvious.
 
1. Hanley to 1b
2. Stop giving ABs to Napoli and Victorino -- move them off 25 man asap if at all possible.
3. Regular ABs to Bradley and Castillo.
 
It is a tough series of moves, because of personalities involved but some decisiveness is in order here.
 
The idea is not only to get the "kids" some steady regular ABs at the major league level before 2016 but also to get rid of the veteran distractions.
 

MuzzyField

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JimD said:
 
Just curious, where does the 2013 World Championship fit into this narrative?
 
If they fire Ben, they better be bringing in Billy Beane or luring Brian Sabean from the Giants, because I don't trust turning this over to a retread or the next wonderkid GM.
It's looking like 2013 fits in right after a last place finish and immediately prior to two additional last place finishes. Thankfully, there's still hope the Rays can be caught and 2015 salvaged.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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czar said:
Random thoughts:
 
I think saying Ball is a scathing indictment of the FO's amateur scouting is a bit harsh. Yes, Ball has performed below expectations, but plenty of great FOs have occasionally whiffed on top-10 picks. It happens. That says nothing of the fact that Ball is still a 21-year-old with a 55-60 fastball.
 
And Ball was the 7th overall pick, representing a tremendous opportunity for the Sox who hadn't picked that high in years, and in his minor league career he's got a K rate of 5.6, a BB rate of 3.9, a K/BB rate of 1.44, and a WHIP of 1.434. This year despite a 55-60 fastball he's K'd only 55 in 97 innings.
 
These results, for such a high draft pick, are dreadful. I'm very comfortable saying they blew the pick. I don't give a goddamn about a "55-60 fastball" if he can't do anything with it. And he can't.
 

Seabass

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ShaneTrot said:
Yeah, to say that the front office is OK is ludicrous. If the current pattern holds, they will be the owner of the 3rd AL East last place finish in the last four years. News flash, the AL East is terrible this year. If you like this front office, you should buy some stock in Blackberry, I hear they have a future.
 
How can a team that has such a great farm system, and a huge financial advantage blow this much? Easy, as SJH said everyone that they trade for or sign at the Major League level is terrible. Not replacement level, just terrible. OK Miley is not terrible, he is just mediocre.
 
Every team seems to have 2 or 3 shut down relievers that you dread seeing. Hell, the Royals have 5 of them and two they got off the scrap heap this year, Madson and Morales. Besides Tazawa, the Sox have not developed any. 
 
Does anyone trust Cherrington to get value for veterans in a trade? Does anyone want to ses him trade highly regarded prospects for a franchise cornerstone? I don't, his judgement is supect in my book.
 
Eduardo Rodriguez was a pretty solid return for 27 relief innings last year. 
 
I don't think the FO has done a great job. That's obvious. However, they've built arguably the best farm in baseball, have young, developing talent at the MLB level at SS, CF, C and have the unknowns of JBJ & Castillo in Pawtucket. This FO has shown they can find young talent and develop it, but their MLB level signings haven't worked out on the whole. I don't know how much of that is talent evaluation and how much of that is the coaching not getting the best out of veteran players. Maybe Farrell needs to go. I dunno. I just know I don't want to clean house on a FO that has acquired and developed a farm system like the Red Sox's. 
 

BosRedSox5

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ivanvamp said:
JBJ needs to be given a real shot, or traded as his stock is probably at a pretty high point right now.mid prefer they keep him and play him, and let him adjust to the majors.

Same with Castillo, though I question his trade value at present. I really want a long term OF of Castillo, Betts, and JBJ. I think it would be a hell of a defensive OF, with a ton of athleticism.
 
I agree on giving JBJ a chance. While he was a disaster at the plate in 2014, he was still better than replacement level which is a big plus considering the state of the outfield. Castillo, Betts and JBJ would be a great defensive outfield, but they'd lack for power wouldn't they? 
 

smastroyin

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I think picking specific things in the Front Office is not as concerning as the idea that they can't seem to decide what they want.  Specifically, I'm talking about all the money they spent this past off-season while still actively being involved in too many experiments.  What I mean is, I don't mind some of the gambles, right?  You can see why you might want to try and see what you can make out of Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  But you can't do that under the premise of competing in 2015 being your number one goal.  Maybe they got caught in between a point where they really thought they would have a Lester/Hamels rotation to go into the season with, and then the rug got pulled out, although you can blame them for not appraising that situation correctly as well.
 
It would have sucked to not be competing this year from the jump, especially after 2014.  I get that, but probably would have been better for the future.  Take the year and see what you have in all of these pre-arb acquisitions and your own farm hands.  I'm not saying that if they did this, Joe Kelly would have been converted to an awesome closer and Allen Craig would have found his stroke and JBJ and Castillo would have 750+ OPS playing good defense and Rick Porcello and Wade Miley would be as good as our breathless hopes at the time of the trades.  But, trying to figure all of these things while also prioritizing competing on a daily basis is tough.
 

czar

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
And Ball was the 7th overall pick, representing a tremendous opportunity for the Sox who hadn't picked that high in years, and in his minor league career he's got a K rate of 5.6, a BB rate of 3.9, a K/BB rate of 1.44, and a WHIP of 1.434. This year despite a 55-60 fastball he's K'd only 55 in 97 innings.
 
These results, for such a high draft pick, are dreadful. I'm very comfortable saying they blew the pick. I don't give a goddamn about a "55-60 fastball" if he can't do anything with it. And he can't.
 
But my point is that every 1st round pick isn't a home run.
 
There is no FO with a 100% track record on draft picks. Some bust. It happens. Even top 10 guys.
 
If a keystone argument of "FO sucks at scouting" is "look at Trey Ball," you probably need a better argument.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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czar said:
 
But my point is that every 1st round pick isn't a home run.
 
There is no FO with a 100% track record on draft picks. Some bust. It happens. Even top 10 guys.
 
If a keystone argument of "FO sucks at scouting" is Trey Ball, you probably need a better argument.
 
When you pick 7th overall and that pick fails, that's a huge black mark on your FO's record and should be considered accordingly.
 
They really couldn't afford to mess up such a high pick, but it appears they completely whiffed. Unacceptable.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
And Ball was the 7th overall pick, representing a tremendous opportunity for the Sox who hadn't picked that high in years, and in his minor league career he's got a K rate of 5.6, a BB rate of 3.9, a K/BB rate of 1.44, and a WHIP of 1.434. This year despite a 55-60 fastball he's K'd only 55 in 97 innings.
 
These results, for such a high draft pick, are dreadful. I'm very comfortable saying they blew the pick. I don't give a goddamn about a "55-60 fastball" if he can't do anything with it. And he can't.
 
On the flip side, the FO is consistently putting us in better draft position every year... The Benintendi pick looks acceptable, and we may even get a better pick next year . (/End of sarcasm).
 
The Sox can probably get these same results without that $200m payroll - great sign of commitment though that is. 
 
I agree that pick doesn't look good; but if there's anything they've done more or less right, it's that farm system.
 

DJnVa

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When you pick 7th overall and that pick fails, that's a huge black mark on your FO's record and should be considered accordingly.
 
Since the start of June, Ball has thrown 50.1 innings, allowing 33 hits, and has a 2.32 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.15. There's progress there at the very least.
 

TheoShmeo

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
The games aren't played on paper, they're played inside little boxes in our living rooms.
 
Life is hard. He is supposed to sign guys who will play well. When EVERY GUY he signs falls flat on their face like this, it's well worth wondering if Cherington should keep his job. There is a serious problem with his scouting/analysis/choices in player acquisition.
 
This is a results-based business. His results have been both terrible and expensive. He needs to be fired.
But what makes you pin it on him when it certainly appears that a lot of the screw ups are mandated or at least mightily contributed to by Henry and his cohorts?
 
Isn't Henry the one who decided that pitchers above 30 should not be re-signed to long term deals and then authorized the idiotic Porcello deal?
 
It sure seems like BC is operating under some restrictions that have contributed mightily to the Sox current predicament.
 

Pilgrim

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
When you pick 7th overall and that pick fails, that's a huge black mark on your FO's record and should be considered accordingly.
 
They really couldn't afford to mess up such a high pick, but it appears they completely whiffed. Unacceptable.
I thought the pick was fine at the time, so I can't kill them too much, but if they had just picked the obvious guy (Austin Meadows) they would have been far better off.
 
I think that's my ideological problem with this FO.  They seem to consciously go out of their way to be smarter than the crowd, but then get those decicions completely wrong.
 
(although maybe thats unfair in regards to amateur scouting.  They've been ok at the draft, and very good at international so far.)
 

DJnVa

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TheoShmeo said:
Isn't Henry the one who decided that pitchers above 30 should not be re-signed to long term deals and then authorized the idiotic Porcello deal?
 
 
 
Well, maybe. But Porcello is 26, not above 30 and his contract ends when he's 30.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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DrewDawg said:
 
Since the start of June, Ball has thrown 50.1 innings, allowing 33 hits, and has a 2.32 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.15. There's progress there at the very least.
 
 
What's his K rate? His K/BB rate? ERA is less important than the other indicators.
 
EDIT: in those 50 innings he's walked 25 and struck out 29. NOT IMPRESSED.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
6,104
BosRedSox5 said:
 
I agree on giving JBJ a chance. While he was a disaster at the plate in 2014, he was still better than replacement level which is a big plus considering the state of the outfield. Castillo, Betts and JBJ would be a great defensive outfield, but they'd lack for power wouldn't they? 
I think Betts is a 20 hr guy and Castillo is a 15-18 hr guy (based only on what I've read about him). JBJ doesn't give you much power. So yes it's a little under powered, but it should produce a lot of bases and prevent a ton of runs. The power comes at DH (Hanley in the future), 1b (Travis), and SS (Bogaerts hopefully has above average power for a SS). Swihart and Panda and Pedroia each can chip in with 10-14 homers as well, potentially. So maybe the power is more spread out.