Getting Smart with Statistics

scottyno

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Why hasn't this thread been bumped. He has the heart of Larry Bird, if not the skill. Someday his number may be in the rafters.
Assuming he resigns after next year I think that's close to a lock, dude is just a fucking warrior, every time they needed a play at either end there he was this series
 

scottyno

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Have you ever seen a player who gives such a shit? Even when the team is down? And especially when it matters?
He's the one guy consistently hustling on every play no matter what. I remember several times he either made or attempted insane saves on loose balls, and no one was there to grab them after he saved it.
 

Koufax

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When Smart was drafted, there were concerns about his character because in college he had gotten into a fight with a fan. I guess that's all ancient history now. He has the heart of a lion.
 

JCizzle

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When Smart was drafted, there were concerns about his character because in college he had gotten into a fight with a fan. I guess that's all ancient history now. He has the heart of a lion.
That fan was a piece of shit. Good work by Danny. Smart is a legend.
 

InstaFace

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When Smart was drafted, there were concerns about his character because in college he had gotten into a fight with a fan. I guess that's all ancient history now. He has the heart of a lion.
From the smirk on that fan's face, I'm willing to bet he said something truly awful and he's lucky Smart didn't rend him limb from limb.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5sGdUIC-X8
 

OurF'ingCity

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From the smirk on that fan's face, I'm willing to bet he said something truly awful and he's lucky Smart didn't rend him limb from limb.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5sGdUIC-X8
Looking at that guys smirk I kinda want to push him myself. (And yes, it’s obvious he said something pretty bad because Smart was pretty calm and then immediately confronted him when he heard something and then was telling the refs and all his teammates/coaches what he heard.)

But good to know that the announcer thought it was “disgusting” behavior.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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Yeah there were reports at the time that the guy used the n word. So glad he fell to us at #6. For a refresher, here are the five guys picked ahead of him:
- Andrew Wiggins
- Jabari Parker
- Joel Embiid
- Aaron Gordon
- Dante Exum
 

nighthob

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If Cleveland had just promised him #1 in 2013 LeBron might never have left. And the Cavs would have a few more titles.
 

scottyno

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When Smart was drafted, there were concerns about his character because in college he had gotten into a fight with a fan. I guess that's all ancient history now. He has the heart of a lion.
Fan called him the N word if I remember right, they should have let Marcus beat the shit out of him.
 

scottyno

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Yeah there were reports at the time that the guy used the n word. So glad he fell to us at #6. For a refresher, here are the five guys picked ahead of him:
- Andrew Wiggins
- Jabari Parker
- Joel Embiid
- Aaron Gordon
- Dante Exum
Obviously you take embiid first, gordon vs smart at #2 might be an interesting debate. The rest of the top 12 after him were garbage too, Danny nailed that pick 100%.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Danny's had his draft misses, but hitting on Smart, Tatum, and Brown is pretty awesome considering how much shit he got for Smart and Brown especially.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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Obviously you take embiid first, gordon vs smart at #2 might be an interesting debate. The rest of the top 12 after him were garbage too, Danny nailed that pick 100%.
Yeah there were discussions that Danny had screwed up by not taking Randle over Smart.

Remember the trade rumors? Marcus Smart for Nerlens Noel who was on the last year of his rookie contract at the time if I'm not mistaken?
 

scottyno

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Yeah there were discussions that Danny had screwed up by not taking Randle over Smart.

Remember the trade rumors? Marcus Smart for Nerlens Noel who was on the last year of his rookie contract at the time if I'm not mistaken?
If you asked me a year or 2 ago I wouldn't have called it a mistake, but I had Randle and Smart on the same tier, definitely not now.

Really, that's Danny's biggest strength in drafting, when he has a top pick he hits on it, no Smart isn't a superstar, but there wasn't one there to pick and he hit a home run compared to what was available.
 

lovegtm

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The dude is getting so much better at being crafty in the paint and drawing fouls, which is making him a dramatically better option as an initiator. That's in addition to everything else he does.

He's going to get paid in a year, and he's going to be worth it.
 

Euclis20

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The dude is getting so much better at being crafty in the paint and drawing fouls, which is making him a dramatically better option as an initiator. That's in addition to everything else he does.

He's going to get paid in a year, and he's going to be worth it.
He's signed for 2 years after this, no? Bref has him signed through 21/22, the final year doesn't appear to be a team or player option.
 

lovegtm

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He's signed for 2 years after this, no? Bref has him signed through 21/22, the final year doesn't appear to be a team or player option.
Wow, you're right. First time in the last few years for me that it hasn't felt that time is moving too fast... :)

That's a big deal, since at least Kemba will be an expiring at that time, so there are lot more ways to handle a Smart contract.
 

djbayko

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They often say Player X does things that don't show up in the box score. Well, that's Marcus Smart in a nutshell. I just looked at his stat line from tonight, and it makes no sense (besides the 16 points, which honestly kind of surprised me).
 

scottyno

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After the Cs got down 40-33 and half the game thread was already writing the season obit:

Smart steal and alley oop
Smart draws a charge
Smart makes a floater
Smart outhustles 2 raptors to a loose ball and finishes on the break

Just like that Cs lead 41-40
 

Sille Skrub

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The play where he outran the two Raptors will be on his career highlight reel. The dude just wants it more. It’s awesome.

I’m impressed with the improvement on his 3pt shooting. He’s gone from someone I cringed when he took them, to someone I’m annoyed when he passes one up.

He was an absolute monster in this series and quite possibly the difference.
 

lexrageorge

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If you asked me a year or 2 ago I wouldn't have called it a mistake, but I had Randle and Smart on the same tier, definitely not now.

Really, that's Danny's biggest strength in drafting, when he has a top pick he hits on it, no Smart isn't a superstar, but there wasn't one there to pick and he hit a home run compared to what was available.
Ever since the 2013 draft, which was really a case of Ainge not willing to roll the dice when he should, he's done exactly that. Once you get over the fact that Giannis was still on the board, drafting Olynyk wasn't terrible, as he's 7th in win shares (basketball-reference.com) among draftees, and 26 teams missed on Gobert.

Going by win shares (which I know is a flawed stat in a number of ways):

2014: A very weird draft in that 3 second rounders and one very late first rounder join Embiid atop the leader board. But ignoring those players, who were essentially lottery tickets that hit for their teams, Smart slots right between Gordon (who was picked two spots ahead) and Randle (one spot behind), and 7th overall.

2015: Rozier has generated expected value with the pick. There were a couple of players on the board who have turned out better, but none are generational talents either.

2016: The WS stat will always hate Jaylen Brown, as do the Hield fanboys. Siakam and Brogdon were lottery tickets that panned out, and no board had Sabonis in the same category as Brown, Murray, Hield, etc. I think we can safely say that the C's are lucky they did not end up with the 2nd pick.

2017: The fact that Tatum is 3rd in win shares says more about the stat than the pick or the player.

2018: Hard to complain; the 27 slot has lots of Robert Williams's. Maybe passing on Mitchell Robinson was a mistake, but still too early to tell.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Fan called him the N word if I remember right, they should have let Marcus beat the shit out of him.
IIRC, the guy, who has an extensive heckling history, allegedly called him a “thug n-bomb”. Dude denied but I think multiple people came forward and said they overheard it. The majority of the scrutiny (except from Texas Tech) that followed was definitely was pretty supportive I don’t think it hurt his draft stock at all, and I think character, generally, was a strong selling point for him. Looking at some scouting reports now, they all call him a high-character kid.

BenHogan posted this a couple of months ago, but it deserves all the eyeballs it can get:


Just an incredible, and incredibly fun dive into Marcus as a high school force of nature, leading an unheralded but scrappy (what else?) AAU team to a national championship. Laugh out loud funny at times. Reason 657 to subscribe to the Athletic if you like hoops.

I love and trust the man.
 

Saints Rest

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Last night after the game, Shaq said "Marcus Smart can play for my team any time." I think that anyone who truly knows and loves that basketball is more than MJ-esque soaring dunks or Steph Curry 3-point bombs, will appreciate a Marcus highlight reel. It's always just full of hustle, grit, desire, and savvy.

Honestly, now that the series is over, I think I would say the same about Lowry, especially if he was on my team.
 

Koufax

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I agree about Lowry. He's got a little Marcus Smart in him.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’d like to point out that the entire league had a chance to take Smart from us with a competitive offer and they all collectively whiffed. Very similar to how nobody took Edelman when he was there for the taking about 4-5 years back. Huge mistake and huge for us.
 

lovegtm

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I’d like to point out that the entire league had a chance to take Smart from us with a competitive offer and they all collectively whiffed. Very similar to how nobody took Edelman when he was there for the taking about 4-5 years back. Huge mistake and huge for us.
True, although everyone thought Boston would match up to ~17M, and he still couldn’t shoot then. The contract was considered fair value at the time, or even the Celtics doing right by him after his market cratered.
 

dhellers

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The dude is getting so much better at being crafty in the paint and drawing fouls, which is making him a dramatically better option as an initiator. That's in addition to everything else he does.

He's going to get paid in a year, and he's going to be worth it.
Can Marcus achieve Dennis Johnson level impact? DJ's was an ice-water-in-veins clutch shooter, in addition to having incredible balance and genius level defensive vision.
So it is a tall order, but Marcus is showing more and more of those capabilities. Thus -- MS as DJ is not farfetched.

And that's the kind of guy you add to the J's to form a core big 3!
 

snowmanny

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Well you are talking slowly declining but incredibly smart and clutch Celtics DJ in the mid-late 1980's, not Sonics/Suns peak Finals MVP/First-team all NBA DJ.

Ed: And if the question is could 2021 26/27 year-old MS be about as good as 31/32 year-old 1986/87 DJ, yeah, certainly close anyway. I would say that DJ had a very clear idea of what his offensive role was on that team and Marcus still drives me nuts with heroball at times...and occasionally he pleasantly surprises me.
 
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amarshal2

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The vast majority of the threes he took against the raptors were because that’s the shot the raptors D gave them. He wasn’t bombs away vs Philly because there were so many great shots available.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He is also the only Cs regular aside from Tatum who is at or better than their season averages from three. Of course because its Marcus Smart, he has been bad at pull up threes in these playoffs while hitting catch and shoot at a pretty good clip. This is the exact opposite of the regular season when he was elite at pull ups and pretty bad at catch and shoot threes.
 
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lovegtm

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Marcus Smart really improved his shot selection from both 3 and 2 over the course of the year, and anything else is slander. I will admit that he started off the season poorly in that regard, and even had issues up to the pause.

35% 3 pointers taken quickly and at good volume are also good halfcourt offense, particularly in the playoffs, before you even get into the spacing benefits.
 

Jimbodandy

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Marcus Smart really improved his shot selection from both 3 and 2 over the course of the year, and anything else is slander. I will admit that he started off the season poorly in that regard, and even had issues up to the pause.

35% 3 pointers taken quickly and at good volume are also good halfcourt offense, particularly in the playoffs, before you even get into the spacing benefits.
Yeah I don't get the complaint with Marcus's shooting at all. We want guys who shoot 35% taking those shots when the defense concedes them.

Marcus has a heat check every once in a while, but who doesn't.
 

chilidawg

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35% 3 pointers taken quickly and at good volume are also good halfcourt offense, particularly in the playoffs, before you even get into the spacing benefits.
Good point. He has looked good on the catch and shoot 3's, doing the sidestep to avoid the closeout and resetting frequently. He looks composed like he knows what he's doing on those.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I love and trust every shot this person takes so no criticism from here.

The shot stuff fascinates me. His rates for threes off of pull ups and catch and shoots are essentially identical for both the regular and postseason. He is just nailing catch and shoot looks now instead of a few months ago when closeouts were almost certainly slower. Its weird and yet it makes sense.
 

InstaFace

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If you have DVR capability, I implore everyone to go back and watch the play starting at 3:45 remaining in the 2Q tonight. Smart screens for Kemba, who hits the shot, but in blocking out for a rebound, Smart goes down. Sensing that he'd be caught out of position, and give Miami numbers on the break, Smart sticks his foot out and trips Adebayo, but enough off-the-ball that nobody was watching him. Down goes Adebayo, and Miami lacks numbers on the next play.

"Master of the Dark Arts" might well have to be the next iteration of the Marcus Smart thread.
 

Sox Puppet

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I liked this Zach Lowe quip from game seven:
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/1304624460100665350

Zach Lowe
@ZachLowe_NBA

That Lowry foul on Smart is the Spider Man pointing meme everyone uses
11:34 PM · Sep 11, 2020
On that note, this will always be my favorite Marcus Smart moment, sealing a victory against the Rockets by baiting the arch-flopper James Harden into committing two "charges." I LMAO'd seeing Smart give Harden a taste of his own medicine.
 

lovegtm

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I think that's a bit overstated. He benefits a lot from his teammates. It is an impressive improvement though.
I think the comparison is more about the age at which he’s doing it, and the fact that the improvement a) isn’t reliant on athleticism b) conceivably could go further.