Grant “Corner Office” Williams
- Thread starter NomarsFool
- Start date
It's not RFA yet; it's the summer before. You can often get guys like him to sign a somewhat team-friendly extension, and then the contract is easily moveable when it kicks in, if necessary.
The Celtics have extended every decent young player they've had since Smart, with the exception of Olynyk and Rozier, and in both cases that was to clear cap space to sign an All-Star.
Grant absolutely could get moved as an asset this summer, but failing that, I expect him to get extended.
All the decent young players the signed where starters. The 2 that weren't were Olynyk and Rozier. Grant Is closer to KO than Smart, TL, Jay or Jay.
Grant is type of guy they haven't paid in the past.
Most likely he doesn't put up a lot of counting stats, so my guess is that he's not going to be in super high demand (if he goes to RFA). It's not like we talk on the phone every day, but he also seems like the sort of player that would appreciate having a role on a winning team vs. wanting to be the star on the Charlotte Hornets - cough Rozier....cough Hayward.
I never thought I'd see the day that Crespo was lamenting that the Cs couldn't afford Grant Williams. My face hurts from smiling.
A new development with Grant is that he’s starting to drill the above the break threes. 37% for the season, but is at 46% over the last month or so, on higher volume.
That would be huge for the offense, Tatum/Grant pick and pops could be a staple. Ran it three times last night, Grant hit two of them.
That would be huge for the offense, Tatum/Grant pick and pops could be a staple. Ran it three times last night, Grant hit two of them.
As has been mentioned, the upfake, drive to the basket move is really working for him right now. That comes from his elite 3 point shooting.
I'm not really lamenting it. It's usually what happens. Either a team thinks you are good enough to start, or they let you walk.
Why would you let him walk/not extend him if a) you aren't going to clear cap space for a big signing b) other teams are likely to think the contract is at least a mildly positive asset?
Seems like a poor use of resources, particularly for a contract extension, since the guy is tradeable as soon as it kicks in (earlier, but poison pill makes it unlikely).
Seems like a poor use of resources, particularly for a contract extension, since the guy is tradeable as soon as it kicks in (earlier, but poison pill makes it unlikely).
That isn't a particularly useful metric since most Celtics rookies have either been starters or not played much (or been traded). Also... players are pretty unique, no team has some blanket policy. I n this case the last guy eligible for extension who was similar was probably Rozier, who turned down an extension, then they traded for Kemba, Smart who they offered and extension but he chose to go the RFA route.
Of course it's even more silly to assume that what a different GM did 8 years ago in any way helps predict what a new GM will do next year.
Both of your examples of them not signing are from when they cleared cap space to sign Hayward and Kemba.
We don't really have any data to go from here, so I'm going from first principles. Hence my question: why would you let him walk if it's a positive value, tradeable contract and you're not signing someone with space? There are valid answers, but they don't lead you to "Grant's definitely not getting re-signed if he's not a starter."
Oh, and Smart started the season as a 6th man the year he signed in RFA, so we actually do have data lol.
because it wouldn't be positive value. I said some team would overpay him to start. That's why they let him walk.
At some dollar figure, you do walk away right?
Who was the last bench player the Cs had an opportunity to extend other than TRoz? I guess we'd all consider TL a starter. Looking through draft picks, Avery Bradley doesn't count as he was a starter.
I guess we'd have to go all the way back to Tony Allen for a rookie bench player to still be with the Cs and he was extended.
Olynyk. It doesn't matter anyway. As someone pointed out, that was Danny Ainge.
Yes, I walk away at some dollar value. The extension and RFA process often result in good outcomes for the drafting team, however, so a large part of the probability distribution is that the Cs get him on a positive-value contract, even if he's not a starter for us.
Looking through Spotrac data in 2021, only three of 24 RFAs that signed new deals signed with a new team. One was the Lonzo Ball deal that was a head-scratcher for New Orleans.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/rfa/
In 2020, one of the 17 RFAs left their original team and that was the Bogdan signing with Atlanta
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/rfa/
In 2019, there were three of the 20 left and two of those were sign and trades (D'Angelo Russell and Rozier). The third was Malcolm Brogdon.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2019/rfa/
EDIT: in 2019 there were five. I missed Delon Wright and Satoransky.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/rfa/
In 2020, one of the 17 RFAs left their original team and that was the Bogdan signing with Atlanta
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2020/rfa/
In 2019, there were three of the 20 left and two of those were sign and trades (D'Angelo Russell and Rozier). The third was Malcolm Brogdon.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2019/rfa/
EDIT: in 2019 there were five. I missed Delon Wright and Satoransky.
FWIW Grant has already started more games this season than TimeLord started last season. & has played twice as many minutes as TL had in his career. Brad had no problem extending TL for 4yrs, and we're all happy he did.
Horford isn't returning next season. If GW continues to bury 3s, he starts next season (or plays starters minutes).
SSS alert (59mins) BUT Grant/Tatum/Brown/TL/Smart net rating:
OFF 131.2 // DEF 98.4 // +32.8
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738
Horford isn't returning next season. If GW continues to bury 3s, he starts next season (or plays starters minutes).
SSS alert (59mins) BUT Grant/Tatum/Brown/TL/Smart net rating:
OFF 131.2 // DEF 98.4 // +32.8
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738
Last edited:
This is verbatim the exact same conversation we had on TimeLord last year. I recall you propping TL 4yrs/$48MM
Grant will want a deal because:
1. RFA is salary dampening. He won't extract that much more by waiting/risking an extra year
2. Late FIRSTs like Grant/ TL want security.
3. Signing a 4yr extension basically guarantees PT/a key role next season and beyond
4. Grant's agent certainly won't want to wait a year (after the travesty that was last season)
5. He's bright and self-aware. This is FU money, he's not turning it down. There are enough salary casualty stories of nitwits not taking the bird in the hand (Noel, Schroder, Boogie, etc)
4yrs somewhere between $32MM-48MM will get it done (weight clauses embedded)
We've had a lot of "what are they doing extending that guy" conversations around here over the years. Avery, Jae Crowder, Marcus twice. That's not to say that people were overwhelmingly against any of those deals, but we certainly weren't unanimous for them either. There haven't been a lot of the extensions that haven't worked out.
Depends on the cash of course. And I certainly get hesitation on Grant. Three years, and he showed up woefully out of shape and useless for one of them. And some folks will always see him as a tweener. But the way he's playing, I'd throw lovegtm's number at him without thinking twice and would probably go a bit more than that.
Depends on the cash of course. And I certainly get hesitation on Grant. Three years, and he showed up woefully out of shape and useless for one of them. And some folks will always see him as a tweener. But the way he's playing, I'd throw lovegtm's number at him without thinking twice and would probably go a bit more than that.
It's fun to look back at what % of the cap Avery, Jae, TL and Marcus' deals were. (Jae wasn't a rookie extension, just an example of a "value" contract for a borderline starter).
Avery: 12.6% of the cap
Jae: 10%
TL: 10% (kicks in this summer)
Marcus: 12.7%
The Avery and Marcus deals would have been the equivalent of signing Grant to a $15.3M AAV contract at this summer's cap number, or $16.5M at a hypothetical $130M 2023 cap. Seeing it this way helps to understand the sticker shock that Avery's, in particular, caused at the time.
10% of the cap in 2023 will probably be $12.5-13M AAV, so I'd be extremely happy to re-sign Grant at a number up to that, and ok at $14-15, although I'd make him sweat through RFA for the latter. $8-10M AAV would be a home run imo, in terms of tradeability and salary structure.
As benhogan said, Grant will earn less than $12M on his rookie deal, pre-tax, so more like $7M take-home, prior to whatever he's spent on life. 4/44 would be a big deal.
The counterexample to this is Rozier, who wouldn't take this type of deal prior to RFA, but Terry is a very...specific personality.
Yeah it was important to Terry to be a lead dog, and he was happy to bet on himself, especially if he was landing somewhere where he knew that he'd be a lead dog.
Your point on salary cap is wise. Avery's deal looked scarier for that reason, but it still worked out well.
In general, I don't thing that teams go broke on the deals like this. Sure you don't want to tie up cap if you're trying to shoot the moon for a big FA, but we're out of that market for a while. Any big FA/RFA that we're landing will be S&T, and these deals don't jeopardize that. If anything, it's another asset to send.
.426 since rookie year playoffs until now. (146/343)
Only using the regular season, since last year until now he is 134/322, .416.
He was at .466 in his first 30 games. The 7 games after that, he went 4/22 and that brought his season line to .416. I assumed he'd continue to regress but no. Since then, he has shot .500 (34/68) in his last 18. I've been talking for awhile how the C's have needed a player who on any given night is a threat to go 4/10 from 3 who isn't Jaylen or Brown. Grant has had 4+ 3s 5 times this season. He's had 3+ 13 times. It would be crazy if he actually develops into an elite gravity well. Coming into the year, there really wasn't much separation between him and Semi Ojeleye as players or shooters. He's come along way from being part of the Grant/Semi suck squad.
Up to .378 for his career. Ignoring all context, Jayson Tatum is at .380 and Jaylen Brown is at .373.
I doubt many people had Grant Williams possibly surpassing Tatum in career 3 point % going into the 21/22 season. Of course, Brown looked like he was going to do that as well and then hit his own slump.
I mostly think he's gone because some team will pay him 15 mil+ to play 30-35 minutes and jack up 7-8 3s a game. It's also possible that Grant Williams is in that role for the C's next year and they decide he's worth paying 4/60+. I don't think that's very likely but I also didn't think it was very likely Grant Williams would be 3rd in the NBA in 3 point % on passable volume either. I've been waiting for him to fall back into the .380ish range for awhile but every time he gets close to dropping below .400, he goes on a run and gets back up to the .440ish range. I'm going to guess his true talent level is closer to his .378 career number but with the data we have, it's impossible to actually know that. That's especially true given he's 23y82d old and didn't really start working on that part of his game until he reached the NBA level.
I still don't think Grant was good his rookie year and that showing up to camp in your 2nd year when there's a role for you is a huge red flag (never assume players will lose weight during the season) about commitment, but his development has been interesting. That's especially true given he started his NBA career 0/25 from 3. I know anyone in the NBA is loaded with confidence but I think a lot of players would be tempted to stop shooting. He didn't let it get to him and now, assuming he comes into camp in shape next year, he's looking at a pretty big pay day if he can build on this season and/or repeat his 3 point shooting. He's shown flashes of having some play making ability (which let to some ridiculous Draymond Green comp) though it doesn't really get used often and to my eye, it's only slightly above average. I think if a team buys him in a role where he was starting and taking 7-8 3's a game, he could make more use of his passing ability and possibly add more value (though minimal) that way.
Even if one team thinks it, it pushes Grant into the 15m+ range and I can't see them footing the bill unless they agree with that evaluation.
But I'm also used to Danny Ainge and not Brad Stevens. At this moment, I would not be on board with Grant at 4/60+. I could see that changing if he's averaging 15 points/6 rebounds/3 assists on .480/.420/.880 shooting in 30ish mpg. I'd be hesitant because I'm not a huge fan of the body type but that's not a player you can let walk for zero return. Not unless you have a bigger deal in place, anyway.
If 4/40 is in play, that's a no brainer.
Only using the regular season, since last year until now he is 134/322, .416.
He was at .466 in his first 30 games. The 7 games after that, he went 4/22 and that brought his season line to .416. I assumed he'd continue to regress but no. Since then, he has shot .500 (34/68) in his last 18. I've been talking for awhile how the C's have needed a player who on any given night is a threat to go 4/10 from 3 who isn't Jaylen or Brown. Grant has had 4+ 3s 5 times this season. He's had 3+ 13 times. It would be crazy if he actually develops into an elite gravity well. Coming into the year, there really wasn't much separation between him and Semi Ojeleye as players or shooters. He's come along way from being part of the Grant/Semi suck squad.
Up to .378 for his career. Ignoring all context, Jayson Tatum is at .380 and Jaylen Brown is at .373.
I doubt many people had Grant Williams possibly surpassing Tatum in career 3 point % going into the 21/22 season. Of course, Brown looked like he was going to do that as well and then hit his own slump.
I mostly think he's gone because some team will pay him 15 mil+ to play 30-35 minutes and jack up 7-8 3s a game. It's also possible that Grant Williams is in that role for the C's next year and they decide he's worth paying 4/60+. I don't think that's very likely but I also didn't think it was very likely Grant Williams would be 3rd in the NBA in 3 point % on passable volume either. I've been waiting for him to fall back into the .380ish range for awhile but every time he gets close to dropping below .400, he goes on a run and gets back up to the .440ish range. I'm going to guess his true talent level is closer to his .378 career number but with the data we have, it's impossible to actually know that. That's especially true given he's 23y82d old and didn't really start working on that part of his game until he reached the NBA level.
I still don't think Grant was good his rookie year and that showing up to camp in your 2nd year when there's a role for you is a huge red flag (never assume players will lose weight during the season) about commitment, but his development has been interesting. That's especially true given he started his NBA career 0/25 from 3. I know anyone in the NBA is loaded with confidence but I think a lot of players would be tempted to stop shooting. He didn't let it get to him and now, assuming he comes into camp in shape next year, he's looking at a pretty big pay day if he can build on this season and/or repeat his 3 point shooting. He's shown flashes of having some play making ability (which let to some ridiculous Draymond Green comp) though it doesn't really get used often and to my eye, it's only slightly above average. I think if a team buys him in a role where he was starting and taking 7-8 3's a game, he could make more use of his passing ability and possibly add more value (though minimal) that way.
Even if one team thinks it, it pushes Grant into the 15m+ range and I can't see them footing the bill unless they agree with that evaluation.
But I'm also used to Danny Ainge and not Brad Stevens. At this moment, I would not be on board with Grant at 4/60+. I could see that changing if he's averaging 15 points/6 rebounds/3 assists on .480/.420/.880 shooting in 30ish mpg. I'd be hesitant because I'm not a huge fan of the body type but that's not a player you can let walk for zero return. Not unless you have a bigger deal in place, anyway.
If 4/40 is in play, that's a no brainer.
Last edited:
What’s the volume ceiling for someone who doesn’t have much of an other role in the offense? Is there an analogue player who shoots a high volume of threes but doesn’t do much else?
Seth Curry was the one I was thinking of. I didn't like the comp so I didn't bother using it.
PJ Tucker?
For all his shooting prowess, advanced stats still aren't coming around on him as a player.
ORaptor -1.0, DRaptor 0.0 Total -0.9 (all the other regulars are 2.4 or better)
OLebron -2.28, DLebron 0.32 Total -1.95 (all the other regulars are 1.22 or better)
On-Off -6.8.
I didn't crunch all the numbers, but in his highest season he was putting up 4.7 3PAs a game in 34 minutes, which is just under 5 attempts per 36.
Grant is up to 3.5 3PAs a game (higher than I thought) in only 23.2 minutes this season, for 5.4 attempts per 36.
Cameron Johnson of the Suns is a close comp for guys who take a lot of 3s, hit them at a high rate and contribute basically nothing to rebounding and assists
he also man's the PHX corner office and spreads the floor. Don't know Cam's defensive game, but Grant adds value there
6 rebounds, 2 assists per 36 for Johnson, and he takes 8 3's and 4.5 2's per 36. Grant gets 5.4 and 2.6 attempts, and 5 rebounds/1.7 assists. So Johnson does a little more of everything, but in general is a similar comp. I would guess his length makes him more valuable than GW, both defensively and offensively, but that's certainly a guess.
If he thinks 4/60-64 in RFA summer 2023 is his upside scenario, there's a decent chance you can get him for 4/44-54 in an extension this summer.
That would be 9-11% of the cap when it kicks in, depending on the cap. That's nearly certain to be a strong value contract for a guy whose shooting seems real.
Barring a trade, it makes a lot of sense for both Grant and the Celtics to get something done this summer, probably in the low to mid 50s.
That would be 9-11% of the cap when it kicks in, depending on the cap. That's nearly certain to be a strong value contract for a guy whose shooting seems real.
Barring a trade, it makes a lot of sense for both Grant and the Celtics to get something done this summer, probably in the low to mid 50s.
If he spent a few hours on the rack each night to stretch himself out a few inches, he could increase his salary by millions 
If he spent a few hours on the rack each night to stretch himself out a few inches, he could increase his salary by millions
made me think of Desmond Bane and his stubby arms.If he spent a few hours on the rack each night to stretch himself out a few inches, he could increase his salary by millions
Grant is 6mths younger than Bane and his some similar counting #s to DB's rookie season
Everyone loves Bane, as they should. But yeah year 1 Bane and year 1 Grant look more same than different from an impact POV.
Obviously, year 2 Bane went to a different level, and year 2 Grant regressed.
If Bane is able to make another leap next year, he'll be that guy that gets thrown out there every time someone downtalks an old draftee.
If Grant is a full-fledged 3pt sniper, and no longer a 5, maybe he continues to cut pounds, starts next season, plays 30mpg & becomes the Desmond Bane we all longed for?
Obviously we’re talking lower volume, especially on the post ups. But he’s in the 97th percentile as a post up scorer, at 1.43 PPP, and in the 91st percentile as a spot up guy, at 1.15.
He has the good low-post footwook of a guy who did it a lot somewhere in his past. At the pro level, he's more limited by size, but he looks very comfortable with his back to the basket. So when the matchup is right, I haven't seen any issues.
He did a lot of it in college and he was very good: 1.173 pts per post-up possession, which was in the 97th percentile. He was also 1st in the SEC in post-up scoring. https://www.nba.com/stats/articles/2019-nba-draft-profile-grant-williams/
His biggest issue is that when he was playing at TN, he was facing guys who were basically the same size as he was. He can absolutely punish guys who are the same size or smaller. However, the NBA has a ton of guys who are bigger than he is and so long as GW is on the Cs, no one is finding out whether GW can take guys bigger than he is in the post. There are too many other options.
But I wish the Cs would give GW the ball more down low when he has a mismatch. That's a super-efficient play.
Thanks for the details. I had no idea he was *that* good at it. The irony is that GW's low-post moves are better, in a technical sense, than most of those other options on the Celtics (except Horford). While Tatum and Brown can make moves down low, they also take a lot of turnarounds and fadeaways when they back in. Back to the basket post play usually brings the defender out tight, which opens up room for cutters. It's something of a lost art, but GW clearly has those old man skills.
Last edited:
If he's not good playing against the trees, maybe he was miscast as a 5
He's clearly a wing, sWing, 4, big forward- whatever you want to call it.
Playing him as the Center always seemed like a desperate move that led to inconsistent results. Supposedly he was advised to put on weight to play the 5 more before last season
Maybe he listened to too many of Ainge’s stories and now he’s afraid of getting bit.If he's not good playing against the trees, maybe he was miscast as a 5
It was an experiment. I'm sure they thought that maybe GW with his strength could play the 5 in a "death" small ball lineup.If he's not good playing against the trees, maybe he was miscast as a 5
He's clearly a wing, sWing, 4, big forward- whatever you want to call it.
Playing him as the Center always seemed like a desperate move that led to inconsistent results. Supposedly he was advised to put on weight to play the 5 more before last season
Well, a few minutes against TOR dissuaded them of that notion.