Happy Maye Day

j44thor

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With Daniels now -1000 for WAS to take Daniels #2 it is a virtual lock that Drake Maye is going 3 to NE, currently -240 on DK to be selected 3.

I've been scouring big boards and general consensus in the analyst community has Maye closer to Caleb than Daniels.
I'm sure we will have plenty of threads dedicated to Maye post draft but wanted to start this one just to post some pre-draft analysis and draft hype on our new savior.

Hayden Winks - well respected analyst in the fantasy community has Maye #2 overall, Daniels #4.
https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-big-board-hayden-winks-top-100

Ian Cummings - analyst for everyone's favorite mock draft simulator PFN has Maye #1 over Caleb, Daniels #14
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2024-nfl-draft-big-board/

PFF - not sure of the analyst, has Maye #3 overall, Daniels #21
https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2024

Thor Nystrom - Fantasy Pros is the one turd in the punch bowl has Daniels #2, Maye #8
https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/thor-nystroms-2024-nfl-draft-big-board-top-500-rookie-rankings-comps/

Daniel Jeremiah - NFL.com gives the slight edge to Maye #5 over Daniels #6
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class

CBS Sports - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-final-big-board-malik-nabers-as-wr1-6-cbs-in-the-top-32-chop-robinson-holds-edge1-and-more/

Mockdraft database - collection of 203 big boards - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

I'm looking forward to the Maye era starting in a little over 12hrs.
 

j44thor

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Full disclosure I've got a small insignificant position on Maye going #2 just to ease the pain but I placed it 2 days ago before Daniels jumped to -1000 and Maye jumped to +600 at 2 so it will be doubly painful if Maye isn't there at 3.
 

SuperManny

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I've had way too much going on to read the hundreds of seemingly daily articles on Maye vs Williams.

What are the comps for Maye? I am seeing Justin Herbert, but it the cliff notes read a bit more like Josh Allen to me. Killer arm, very capable physical runner and questionable decision making. He might be very frustrating for the first few years because the talent will be obvious, but he'll make some really stupid decisions (Bledsoe but a better runner?).
 

Cellar-Door

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I've had way too much going on to read the hundreds of seemingly daily articles on Maye vs Williams.

What are the comps for Maye? I am seeing Justin Herbert, but it the cliff notes read a bit more like Josh Allen to me. Killer arm, very capable physical runner and questionable decision making. He might be very frustrating for the first few years because the talent will be obvious, but he'll make some really stupid decisions (Bledsoe but a better runner?).
Breer has one of the best I think where he says he's like if Justin Herbert played like Josh Allen.
He's big, has a strong arm and is more athletic than some credit him with. He is ultra-aggressive, sometimes reckless, his footwork is kind of a mess.

I think looking at Allen and saying... what if he were a little less talented as a runner (but protected himself more) and his arm was like top 8 in the league instead of top 2...... that's the Drake Maye comp.
 

j44thor

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I've had way too much going on to read the hundreds of seemingly daily articles on Maye vs Williams.

What are the comps for Maye? I am seeing Justin Herbert, but it the cliff notes read a bit more like Josh Allen to me. Killer arm, very capable physical runner and questionable decision making. He might be very frustrating for the first few years because the talent will be obvious, but he'll make some really stupid decisions (Bledsoe but a better runner?).
I'd say his ceiling is Herbert. The thing with Maye is he is very young and raw. He should sit for his first year as his footwork needs to be cleaned up but what I've read recently is this what his coaches at UNC taught so his footwork should be able to be corrected with better coaching. What he has is elite size and arm talent combined with impressive mobility. He will probably look like the worst QB drafted after his first and possibly even second starting season but his ceiling is uniquely higher IMO due to his size/speed/arm talent combination.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Looks like fan duel has taken down its line for pick 2. Not a ton of mystery at this point.
 

rodderick

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I'm much higher on Maye's floor than most. I think people are underestimating his ability to extend drives rushing the ball and how good his deep accuracy and ability generate explosive plays are, which could make him valuable in a PA heavy offense with designed shots even if he's a work in progress as an in rhythm passer. I think he could look like Year 2 Josh Allen out of the gate, and that's a valuable player.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I've come around on Maye. He's still really young but the stuff you can't teach is there. Big arm, exceptionally mobile for a big guy. LFG.
 

Auger34

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With Daniels now -1000 for WAS to take Daniels #2 it is a virtual lock that Drake Maye is going 3 to NE, currently -240 on DK to be selected 3.

I've been scouring big boards and general consensus in the analyst community has Maye closer to Caleb than Daniels.
I'm sure we will have plenty of threads dedicated to Maye post draft but wanted to start this one just to post some pre-draft analysis and draft hype on our new savior.

Hayden Winks - well respected analyst in the fantasy community has Maye #2 overall, Daniels #4.
https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-big-board-hayden-winks-top-100

Ian Cummings - analyst for everyone's favorite mock draft simulator PFN has Maye #1 over Caleb, Daniels #14
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2024-nfl-draft-big-board/

PFF - not sure of the analyst, has Maye #3 overall, Daniels #21
https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2024

Thor Nystrom - Fantasy Pros is the one turd in the punch bowl has Daniels #2, Maye #8
https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/thor-nystroms-2024-nfl-draft-big-board-top-500-rookie-rankings-comps/

Daniel Jeremiah - NFL.com gives the slight edge to Maye #5 over Daniels #6
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class

CBS Sports - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-final-big-board-malik-nabers-as-wr1-6-cbs-in-the-top-32-chop-robinson-holds-edge1-and-more/

Mockdraft database - collection of 203 big boards - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

I'm looking forward to the Maye era starting in a little over 12hrs.
It's behind a paywall but Kiper has Daniels 2 and Maye 6.

ESPN Scouts Inc has Daniels 5 and Maye 6.

Jordan Reid has Maye 4 and Daniels 6.

Field Yates has Daniels 2 and Maye 5

Athletic Big Board has Maye 3 and Daniels 8

Dane Brugler has Maye 4 and Daniels 8
 
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Caspir

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Jul 16, 2005
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I've come around on Maye after being sure he would be a terrible pick. He's really young, and his ability to scramble and run when he needs to is impressive. I was a Daniels guy all the way, but I started to sour on him just because of his age relative to the other options. I still think he'll be a good QB, but with our timeline, give me the guy that's 3 years younger with room for growth.

I watched the Dan Patrick interview with Maye, and he seemed like a funny bro type. Only ding on him is he is an Aaron Rodgers fan. I think he's in for a culture shock when he leaves NC and (fingers crossed) sets up shop in New England. He's been the man in NC since he was 16 years old.
 

amfox1

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I would take #6 overall, #47 overall, 2025 1st round pick, 2025 3rd round pick for #3 overall and take MHJ/Nabors/Alt or JJMc, depending on which two fall to me.
 

rodderick

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I would take #6 overall, #47 overall, 2025 1st round pick, 2025 3rd round pick for #3 overall and take MHJ/Nabors/Alt or JJMc, depending on which two fall to me.
That's a super thin package to end up with a pick that doesn't even guarantee you McCarthy with the possible trades at 4 and 5.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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The Giants had #39, before they traded it for Brian Burns. 6, 39, 47 and next years #1 would have been tough to say no to. Giants don't have enough in this years draft to make it appealing unless they were doing a Ricky Williams type trade.
 

rguilmar

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Jul 16, 2005
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With Daniels now -1000 for WAS to take Daniels #2 it is a virtual lock that Drake Maye is going 3 to NE, currently -240 on DK to be selected 3.

I've been scouring big boards and general consensus in the analyst community has Maye closer to Caleb than Daniels.
I'm sure we will have plenty of threads dedicated to Maye post draft but wanted to start this one just to post some pre-draft analysis and draft hype on our new savior.

Hayden Winks - well respected analyst in the fantasy community has Maye #2 overall, Daniels #4.
https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-big-board-hayden-winks-top-100

Ian Cummings - analyst for everyone's favorite mock draft simulator PFN has Maye #1 over Caleb, Daniels #14
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2024-nfl-draft-big-board/

PFF - not sure of the analyst, has Maye #3 overall, Daniels #21
https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2024

Thor Nystrom - Fantasy Pros is the one turd in the punch bowl has Daniels #2, Maye #8
https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/thor-nystroms-2024-nfl-draft-big-board-top-500-rookie-rankings-comps/

Daniel Jeremiah - NFL.com gives the slight edge to Maye #5 over Daniels #6
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class

CBS Sports - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-final-big-board-malik-nabers-as-wr1-6-cbs-in-the-top-32-chop-robinson-holds-edge1-and-more/

Mockdraft database - collection of 203 big boards - Maye #2, Daniels #4
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

I'm looking forward to the Maye era starting in a little over 12hrs.
Matt Waldman has Daniels as QB4 and Maye as QB6
 

Toe Nash

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Why are the odds so low on Daniels going 2? Is this just groupthink or was there some actual credible reporting I missed?
 

Cellar-Door

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Why are the odds so low on Daniels going 2? Is this just groupthink or was there some actual credible reporting I missed?
Schefter has been saying it for like a month is a big part of it, so people have been betting it for a month plus, so the books are trying to balance the money. Vegas isn't trying to predict who actually gets drafted where, no way to know, they're just trying to keep from paying out so conventional wisdom drives bets.
 

Reverend

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Obviously, not saying what you’re doing out loud even if it’s in stone is the custom, but if it is understood that Caleb is going first, tWFT doesn’t have a lot of strong incentives to tight secrecy, do they?
 

Remagellan

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FWIW, one of my best friends is a huge Giants fan, and their sources are saying there is a three-way deal in which the Giants move up to 3 to take Maye and pay the freight to allow the Pats and Arizona to swap picks so the Pats get JJ at 4 and Arizona can still take its receiver at 6. I don't like it, because I prefer Maye, and can't imagine what they'd come out of that swap with in addition to JJ to make it worth it.
 

Cellar-Door

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Obviously, not saying what you’re doing out loud even if it’s in stone is the custom, but if it is understood that Caleb is going first, tWFT doesn’t have a lot of strong incentives to tight secrecy, do they?
not a ton, but there is probably at least a little value in seeing what teams are willing to do once you're on the clock same as for New England. If they think NE likes one guy a lot more, and they don't have a real gap... why not get to the clock and say "hey Elliott, what's it worth to you to have your choice of non-Caleb QBs?" no downside, only upside.
 

j44thor

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FWIW, one of my best friends is a huge Giants fan, and their sources are saying there is a three-way deal in which the Giants move up to 3 to take Maye and pay the freight to allow the Pats and Arizona to swap picks so the Pats get JJ at 4 and Arizona can still take its receiver at 6. I don't like it, because I prefer Maye, and can't imagine what they'd come out of that swap with in addition to JJ to make it worth it.
If we take the Manning/Rivers swap as the template here it could work. NYG traded #4, 3rd, following yr 1st/5th for 1st overall.
If NYG agrees to trade #6/3rd, 1st and 5th that is a slight overpay for #3 but NE could then slightly overpay to move from 6 to 4 by trading NYG 3rd. This leaves NE McCarthy, NYG 2025 1st and 5th in exchange for Maye.
Of course AZ would need to be comfortable risking MHJ for an early 3rd + Nabors.
 

Remagellan

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If we take the Manning/Rivers swap as the template here it could work. NYG traded #4, 3rd, following yr 1st/5th for 1st overall.
If NYG agrees to trade #6/3rd, 1st and 5th that is a slight overpay for #3 but NE could then slightly overpay to move from 6 to 4 by trading NYG 3rd. This leaves NE McCarthy, NYG 2025 1st and 5th in exchange for Maye.
Of course AZ would need to be comfortable risking MHJ for an early 3rd + Nabors.
My fear would be Minnesota sends 11, 23, and next year's 1 to Arizona to go to 4 and we're stuck waiting another year to take a QB.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Obviously, not saying what you’re doing out loud even if it’s in stone is the custom, but if it is understood that Caleb is going first, tWFT doesn’t have a lot of strong incentives to tight secrecy, do they?
I guess I could see a circumstance in which Washington was agnostic as between Daniels and Maye, and so they wanted to put out some misinformation about maybe considering MHJ to scare Arizona into wanting to move up from 4 and giving up something to do it.

This assumes Arizona really wants MHJ. It's also not really realistic at all, I suppose you might want to play some mind games like that just in case on the theory that you never know.
 

Cellar-Door

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If we take the Manning/Rivers swap as the template here it could work. NYG traded #4, 3rd, following yr 1st/5th for 1st overall.
If NYG agrees to trade #6/3rd, 1st and 5th that is a slight overpay for #3 but NE could then slightly overpay to move from 6 to 4 by trading NYG 3rd. This leaves NE McCarthy, NYG 2025 1st and 5th in exchange for Maye.
Of course AZ would need to be comfortable risking MHJ for an early 3rd + Nabors.
Yeah, there seems little reason for ARI to go from 4 to 6 for just a 3rd. Especially if they can get a QB haul out of a team in the 11-14 range, which would let them come back to 5 and net better than a 3 likely, or to 8 for a lot less and still likely get either MHJ at 5 or one of the other top 3 WRs at 8.
 

Remagellan

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6 and 47 for 4
4 and ‘25 1st for 3
Only if NYG is desperate for Maye
Can’t see AZ or LAC dropping to 11,12 or 13
The problem is, Atlanta is at 8 and looking to draft defense. If Arizona took 11 and 23 and next year's 1 from Minny for 4, they could send 11 and 23 to Atlanta to go back up to 8 and draft the third receiver and still have Minny's 2025 1. Atlanta is probably still looking at the first or second defensive pick coming off the board at 11.
 

Remagellan

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Yeah, there seems little reason for ARI to go from 4 to 6 for just a 3rd. Especially if they can get a QB haul out of a team in the 11-14 range, which would let them come back to 5 and net better than a 3 likely, or to 8 for a lot less and still likely get either MHJ at 5 or one of the other top 3 WRs at 8.
Beat me to it.
 

j44thor

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Yeah, there seems little reason for ARI to go from 4 to 6 for just a 3rd. Especially if they can get a QB haul out of a team in the 11-14 range, which would let them come back to 5 and net better than a 3 likely, or to 8 for a lot less and still likely get either MHJ at 5 or one of the other top 3 WRs at 8.
It would be worked out ahead of time but unlikely they could drop all the way to 11 and come back up to 5 for less than the 23 they would be getting. The risk for AZ is that if they really want one of MHJ or Nabors they are both assuredly gone by 11 so they can't drop that far back. According to the draft chart AZ is making out dropping from 4 to 6 for a high 3rd. That swap is 200 pts of value, the NYG 3rd is 240 pts.
 

j44thor

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The problem is, Atlanta is at 8 and looking to draft defense. If Arizona took 11 and 23 and next year's 1 from Minny for 4, they could send 11 and 23 to Atlanta to go back up to 8 and draft the third receiver and still have Minny's 2025 1. Atlanta is probably still looking at the first or second defensive pick coming off the board at 11.
11/23 is approx 2030 pts of value, #4 is 1800 pts of value on the chart most teams supposedly use these days.
If MN is throwing in an additional 1 they are getting smoked on the trade.
 

Cellar-Door

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It would be worked out ahead of time but unlikely they could drop all the way to 11 and come back up to 5 for less than the 23 they would be getting. The risk for AZ is that if they really want one of MHJ or Nabors they are both assuredly gone by 11 so they can't drop that far back. According to the draft chart AZ is making out dropping from 4 to 6 for a high 3rd. That swap is 200 pts of value, the NYG 3rd is 240 pts.
Ignore the chart for QB trades
If they really want MHJ they stick and pick, if they want a top 3 WR and assets they can do much better than a 3rd.

The idea of trading out of three then up to 4 just doesn't make sense unless you overpay by so much ARI can't decline.

Edit-yeah I think the problem is you are using the chart... It's useless for QB trades into the top of the draft, look to past trades.. MIA/SF was something like 3 1sts and a 3rd for a similar move, 11 to 4 would likely cost 23 and at least 1 other premium pick.
 

Arroyoyo

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Patriots trade 3 to Vikings for 11, 23, 2025 1st, Darrisaw.
Vikings draft Maye.

Patriots trade 11, 23, 137 to Arizona for 4.
Patriots draft JJ McCarthy.

Patriots trade 34, 103, Vikings 2025 1st to Atlanta for 8.
Patriots draft Odunze.

Patriots come away with McCarthy, Odunze, Darrisaw.

I know. Atlanta probably says no. But that’s my first shit-against-the-wall proposal I’ve made and I wanted to get in on the fun.
 

boca

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Nothing earth shattering but Rapaport at the draft saying the Giants and Vikings going to push for a trade once the Pats are on the clock.
 

j44thor

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Ignore the chart for QB trades
If they really want MHJ they stick and pick, if they want a top 3 WR and assets they can do much better than a 3rd.

The idea of trading out of three then up to 4 just doesn't make sense unless you overpay by so much ARI can't decline.

Edit-yeah I think the problem is you are using the chart... It's useless for QB trades into the top of the draft, look to past trades.. MIA/SF was something like 3 1sts and a 3rd for a similar move, 11 to 4 would likely cost 23 and at least 1 other premium pick.
AZ is only getting a bag if another team values McCarthy about as much as they do Maye. I'm not sure MN values them that closely as they seem to be much more interested in Maye.