My glass half empty speculation is as follows.
I see Bill as having made a "Grand Bargain" with this players.
Play for me, subjugate yourself to a large extent, deal with the media like a Stepford Patriot, work extremely hard and endure a mentally tough environment, all in exchange for being on a team that invariably has a good chance to win the SB and will be lead by a HC/GM that will make great decisions for the most part and will not make dumbass moves that make winning much tougher.
That formula has worked for years and guys have been willing to toe the line while Bill, in turn, has routinely made good decisions, albeit not always ones that everyone agrees with. No doubt, having Tom Brady at the helm aided that, but still, Bill is a brilliant HC and GM, and has been universally regarded by everyone other than moronic Cheatriot types.
While I am not suggesting open revolt or a Tom Jackson type reaction, I was worried in the aftermath of the SB and continue to worry that the level of commitment Bill demands will be harder to get from players in the wake of the truly inexplicable set of decisions around the Bulter benching. We can defer on the decision not to start Malcom. Not adjusting and leaving two players out of position when the D was getting shredded and a starting corner was available but unused? I can't make an argument for it. I have read folks talk about having rules and not breaking them for the moment, etc., but I don't know, I think the moment in the later phases of SB 52 called out for an exception to whatever the particular rule was.
I can make sense of Lewis and Solder leaving rather easily. Big pay days. Butler was gone by some time in the second quarter of the SB, if not before. Amendola is a bummer because I think he was a special, clutch player on this team and with that QB. But even there, a good case can be made that he was maxing his value in his last big payday, and BB could not afford to match or even come close enough. Your mileage will vary on that one. It bothers me a lot and I wonder if the Butler thing made it harder for him to take a discount, but I understand that there are good counter arguments.
But after watching Tom on FB, watching him on the recent talk shows, reading his and Gronk's comments on instagram, and reading the many former Pats players' comments regarding Butler, I think it's at least a question whether Bill will have this team in his control to the extent that he once did. Before this year, we did not see Pats talking so openly about being FREE and HAPPY. What that actually means, I don't know, but it's new, I think.
I don't think it's just down to Butler, though I do think making a series of decisions that arguably cost guys a ring is a very tough thing to recover from. Pete Carroll and Bill are not the same guy and have very different pedigrees, but Poodle Pete did win a SB and got his team to the brink of another one, and I think an argument could be made that he never really got all his players to fully believe in him after he eschewed the run. Richard Sherman, for one, never seemed to get back on board and was pretty outspoken about his feelings. Again, I know that there are differences between them (five rings versus one, to start) but I think there is some risk that Bill wont be able to get guys to do what they did before.
Other factors could be players just wearing down over time, the fact that with time, some coaches get tuned out, the petty looking Alex G decisions, and seemingly getting less than full value for Jimmy G.
To be sure, I think it's entirely possible that all of this will blow over and that Bill will have the team FULLY in his control and we'll be back to 12-4, 13-3 and a SB birth. No one should be shocked if what always happens, happens again.
But the recent decisions, when combined with the already existing challenge presented by team building in the salary cap/parity era, could contribute to the end being near.
I know that many will say that there's nothing to worry about, these kinds of doubts come up every year, and will point to other decisions Bill made that did not result in any slippage whatsoever. Burkhead and Ebner re-upping are positive signs. A guy like Jordy Nelson seemingly wants in. Sherman wanted in.
But, still, the present circumstances seem different to me and we have never been in an environment where a good amount of people thought the HC's decision making played a key role in a SB loss. That is virgin territory for this team. Yeah, people had issues with the 4th and 13 call in SB 42 but that was on a long list of things that went wrong that day. If David Tyree doesn't....blech. Here, the Bulter call is the first factor on the minds of many as to why they lost. Whether that's fair or right is irrelevant in that the perception is there and I would be surprised if it's not shared by a bunch of the players.