Doubt it would happen, but I'd love to see them take Marquese Chriss at #16 if he's still available. Saw him a few times last year that guy is an athletic freak.
Hey, there are two more first round picks to ponder
- Thread starter Koufax
- Start date
Very, very doubtful, but hey, Rodney Hood was taken at 23 two years ago after being projected as a top nine pick the day of the draft.
But really, that 2014 draft was supposed to be the deepest ever... And the top performing player career to date was taken 23. Sure, Wiggins, Paker soon, and possibly Jokic look better. But man, that was an overrated draft.
I'm not the type to post "link"......but Hood was never considered to be in the high teens at any point leading up to the draft by any of the most respected mocks. He certainly wasn't projected at 9 unless my memory went completely bonkers.
Edit: I found one who I don't respect at all (nbadraft.net) having Hood at 9.
http://www.nba.com/news/2014-consensus-mock-draft/
Probably not a first round consideration, as Draft Express has him at 38, but I've seen other mocks that don't have him drafted at all, but here's an interesting write up by Dean Demakis on Louisville big man Chinanu Onuaku. Based on his age and elite Box Plus/Minus, Demakis has Onuaku graded as a lottery pick. He's an excellent defender- he anchored the #2 defense in the nation rebounder and held his own against Zubac and other big prospects at the U19s. He's great on the glass and a good passer. He's not explosive, but he's very strong and mobile. His shot is terrible, and his average size and athleticism should keep him in the second round. Here's Demakis's summary:
"Onuaku is outlier good at basketball for his age, and he doesn’t have any glaring red flags that will preclude him from success in the NBA. He has pink flags that deflate his upside, but I cannot see how he should ever slide out of the lottery. He is 3 years younger than Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield, and was arguably a more valuable NCAA player this past season. He could potentially be a beast defensively and rebounding with a respectable offensive repertoire of passing, finishing, and post scoring to preclude him from being a drain on that end due to his shooting. Even if his lack of size and burst limit him to being a casually good defensive player, he could nevertheless be a great return on a top 10 pick in a weak draft."
"Onuaku is outlier good at basketball for his age, and he doesn’t have any glaring red flags that will preclude him from success in the NBA. He has pink flags that deflate his upside, but I cannot see how he should ever slide out of the lottery. He is 3 years younger than Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield, and was arguably a more valuable NCAA player this past season. He could potentially be a beast defensively and rebounding with a respectable offensive repertoire of passing, finishing, and post scoring to preclude him from being a drain on that end due to his shooting. Even if his lack of size and burst limit him to being a casually good defensive player, he could nevertheless be a great return on a top 10 pick in a weak draft."
Onuaku fits the mold that nighthob and myself have been preaching on how deep this draft is in NBA rotation players. He has a skillset that is both useful and necessary to have on winning teams maybe somewhat like an Ezeli. He is a great value pick for a playoff team but could get lost without a role in a bad situation. I think he'll make his mark in the right setting.
He is unique as you rarely see an NBA draft pick have minor heart surgery a month prior to the draft or shoot his FT's Rick Barry underhand style......and this kid has BOTH on his resume!!
He is unique as you rarely see an NBA draft pick have minor heart surgery a month prior to the draft or shoot his FT's Rick Barry underhand style......and this kid has BOTH on his resume!!
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Bright Side of the Suns write-up on Zhou Qi, nicknamed "The Big Devil King," here: http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2016/5/31/11817416/2016-phoenix-suns-prospect-profile-zhou-qi.
Zhou worked out for 4 teams - including Phoenix and Boston. He shot 60% (okay, 9-15) from 3P land in the CBA.
As HRB and EHM are saying, there seem to be a lot of kids who have the measurables (and thus potential) to be really good NBA players but very few players who are locks to be productive. Since the draft is mostly a crapshoot IMO, with eight picks, perhaps DA can hit a home run or two.
Zhou worked out for 4 teams - including Phoenix and Boston. He shot 60% (okay, 9-15) from 3P land in the CBA.
As HRB and EHM are saying, there seem to be a lot of kids who have the measurables (and thus potential) to be really good NBA players but very few players who are locks to be productive. Since the draft is mostly a crapshoot IMO, with eight picks, perhaps DA can hit a home run or two.
The problem with this numbers game is that it will be difficult to hang on to all of them as they mature and display whether they will blossom into valuable players. I won't surprise me to see that some late first round or second round player that the Celtics drafted then cut turns out to be really valuable to another franchise.
We could add up to 5 rookies to the 15-man roster simply by moving on from Young and Hunter. There are plenty of open roster spots on the back end of the roster. Maybe a stash or two which Ainge has never done with a foreign player in the past and a consolidation of a couple picks. Just like the supposed "roster crunch" of last season I don't really see a "draft pick crunch" here that hinders us as we have some good flyer opportunities.
It also may be worth mentioning that next summer we'll *only* have four picks. The Swap then low seconds from Cleveland and LAC, plus one likely around 40 from Minnesota. Throw in whatever consolidation trade(s) Ainge will have made by that point (or sooner) and I don't see an issue with making most of these picks either. Not the best year to have a not-quite-tippy-top pick but potentially a great year to be overflowing with depth picks. Just no JuJuan Johnsons please.
I know he's had 2 years of not really progressing, but he's only turning 21 this summer. Are we really sure James Young is truly done and less valuable than pick 23? Wouldn't it be better to re-up one more year and hope his value rises before the deadline?
It's an interesting question, Young is still young with a lot of potential, but he's stagnated. I think it's likely he is worth less than 23, but I don't think that will be the question anyway. There are enough roster spaces to absorb 3 1sts without problem barring something weird. The guys Young will be competing with are 31, 35, 45, 51, 58.
Barring Euro players not ready to come over, there is no way all those picks can be on the roster. The last 2 are the ones where you might find a guy willing to be stashed either in Europe or D-League. 45 is a tossup on that front. So Young could be fighting either 35 or 45 for the last roster spot, depending on other moves.
He was a 17th pick and hasn't done anything at all in 2 years to increase his value. Who would give up a first round pick of any kind for James Young?
What is James Young's upside? I certainly wouldn't give up on him just yet but I fail to see much of anything there and would absolutely trade him for #23 in a theoretical world where we didn't already have it.
Right, but we have 8 draft picks, not 5; and $1M in salary committed to James Young for next year. I foresee Danny trying to do a number of 2-for-1 trades in the second round to move up a bit and reduce the flow of bodies into training camp.
Yeah even with 4-5 picks you can have some combination of a Euro stash, a Marcus Thornton-like stash, a 2 for 1 and moving a pick forward a year. It doesn't have to be all stashes or all 2 for 1's. I expect to see it fairly balanced to maximize the value.
Thon Maker has been discussed on this board and most posters here seem to think the risk outweighs the upside. The more I read the more I wonder why. I know there are old youtube mix tapes that make him look like a potential star and a lot of new scouting reports say that isn't the player he is. But all the talk on this board on next years draft made me look into future rankings and I came across this article where it discussed Thon "dominated" DeAndre Ayton, the projected #1 pick in the 2018 draft.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=14105
Lots of scouting reports say he has a great motor. He can shoot. He's 7'1. He looks long and athletic. The negatives seem to talk about inexperience, raw, and lack of size. All of those things sound like common negatives for a 19 year old and things he can outgrow. I'm not saying to take him 3, but he seems like a really good gamble at 16. Another link below ranks him 7th of all HS prospects. The article is from last August before we knew he would be eligible for this draft.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/8/11/9128381/five-star-recruits-nba-draft-prospects
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=14105
Lots of scouting reports say he has a great motor. He can shoot. He's 7'1. He looks long and athletic. The negatives seem to talk about inexperience, raw, and lack of size. All of those things sound like common negatives for a 19 year old and things he can outgrow. I'm not saying to take him 3, but he seems like a really good gamble at 16. Another link below ranks him 7th of all HS prospects. The article is from last August before we knew he would be eligible for this draft.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/8/11/9128381/five-star-recruits-nba-draft-prospects
Young could always be a late bloomer like Gerald Green was however you want to see a young player take a leap following his first offseason which Young clearly did not accomplish. I feel that there is a greater risk in holding onto Young too long as you block a backend roster spot for a rookie this year to have the same opportunity that Young failed to take advantage of over that past two years. For that reason "I'm out" on Young and want him moved for a future 2nd rounder.
Given the age difference, though, he should have dominated Ayton. Maker is going to play in the league for a long time because he's tall and plays hard. He just isn't going to be the star some people were expecting him to be at age 16 as he didn't continue getting more athletic. It happens. See OJ Mayo for an example, his size and athleticism at 16 allowed him to dominate the competition, but that was where his body stopped growing, and as the competition caught up the luster came off the star.
That's fair, but it's also only one data point. IMHO, it seems a little early to conclude he's not going to be a star. How many guys have his length that can shoot? And he's going to get bigger. Less than a year ago he was a project top 5 pick in a loaded 2017 draft. One year later we're sure he's not going to be a star? From the scouting reports I've seen, the negatives seem to be all things that you can improve with experience and age.
If Maker lasts to the 2nd round then yes I agree he should be taken with one of our early 2nds. He really wouldn't have much time with Stevens as he'd either be in Maine or working with our assistants in developing individual skills and with our strength/conditioning coaches. Regular season practices, when they are squeezed into the schedule, aren't designed to work on player development they are about preparing for the next game or games.
He could very well be an above average NBA center, no one's disputing that, it's why mocks have him going as high as late lottery. It's just that he didn't maintain his athletic edge over the other players in his class past 16. And so expectations were dialed down from the next Garnett accordingly.
I guess I'm trying to make an argument for him at #16 and I'm not seeing a reason against it. There are a few guys who, if they fall, I'd like better but I think Maker should be in the discussion.
He's super super raw and he hasn't developed much since he was 16, which is a real concern. I think he has higher bust potential than anyone in this draft. Sure his ceiling is fairly high, but the likelihood of him reaching it is also pretty low. At 16 I'd rather have a player who has more chance of actually being an NBA player before he's up for his next contract.
Agreed. While age and experience caveats do apply with Young, at some point you have to flash something. With the C's shooting woes, the door was ajar. Saw incremental improvement in his defensive awareness but not a whole lot else.
He's older of course but I think Rozier's a nice example of what you're talking about here. On a team well-stocked with guards he took his opportunities and flashed while also showing improvement despite his minimal time on the floor. Defense, handle, effort, oodles of athleticism--made me constantly stop and think "once the game slows down for him, watch out..." while Young still has the look of a guy who will forever be chasing the speed of the NBA game.
Frankly even despite the two-year age difference I give a huge edge to Rozier on "potential" alone given the athletic chasm between the two players.
Here's a recent scouting report on Timothe Luwawu, who I've seen all over the place in mock, from late lottery to late first round. This guy likes him way more than most, he has him 4th on his board behind Simmons, Ingram, Bender, which is about ten spots higher than I have him, but he's a guy I'd be interested in if Korkmaz isn't there at 16. Like Korkmaz, he's a 6'7 swingman with good length and great athleticism who has played well at a young age against decent European competition. He's behind Korkmaz as a shooter, ball-handler and passer, but he's well ahead of him in on-the-ball defense and even more explosive, with an excellent first step, as shown in the gifs from the link above. With his speed and ups he's a beast in transition, which he's had ample opportunity to show at Mega Leks- think Euroball's version of D'Antoni's Suns, in terms of pace. If he continues to improve his handle and shot he could be an electric two-way wing.
So Zubac has been mentioned for 16 and 23. Celtics are one of the 4 teams he's going to give workouts;
Since I think it's unlikely that the Celtics actually keep the #3, this thread deserves a little more attention from the pick speculating crowd. A lot of us think this draft is loaded with useful role players, but with 16 and 23, I think there should be some options for guys who we can reasonably envision as starters. So who are the "swing for the fences" guys who may be available at 16 and 23? I'd be very happy to walk away with one of Luwawu/Korkmaz and one of Zubac/Zizic. I've explained my thoughts Luwawu and Korkmaz a bit in other threads- Luwawu's up there with Brown as an explosive, slashing wing, with an elite first step, plus he can shoot a bit, while Korkmaz can shoot a ton, sees the floor well, and moves great without the ball for a guy so young. Korkmaz, in particular, with his shooting, passing, and ability to pull up off of screens could really blossom into a floor-spacing offensive force on the perimeter. Zizic and Zubac, well, you can't teach size. Zubac is huge, and seems to move pretty well. Zizic is slightly less huge, but looks considerably more agile and shoots well enough from the line (73%) to make me hopeful that he could develop a solid jumper. He's also great on the boards- leading the Adriatic League as a 19 year-old. He's my preference among the Big Zs.
Dejounte Murray is another guy who I think has considerable upside- good size for a guard, very smooth with the ball, gets into the paint with ease, and runs transition offense well. With his length and lateral quickness, he has the tools to be a good defender as well. He's raw, he turns the ball over too much and he's a poor shooter at this point, be he really looks the part of an NBA player at times, though I doubt analytics look at him favorably.
With the higher floor type guys I expect to be available later (McCaw, Siakam, Onuaku, Levert, Robert Carter, Zagorac), I'd really like to see high risk/reward guys at 16 and 23. Anyone else have a case for a guy who they can project as a starter on a good team?
Dejounte Murray is another guy who I think has considerable upside- good size for a guard, very smooth with the ball, gets into the paint with ease, and runs transition offense well. With his length and lateral quickness, he has the tools to be a good defender as well. He's raw, he turns the ball over too much and he's a poor shooter at this point, be he really looks the part of an NBA player at times, though I doubt analytics look at him favorably.
With the higher floor type guys I expect to be available later (McCaw, Siakam, Onuaku, Levert, Robert Carter, Zagorac), I'd really like to see high risk/reward guys at 16 and 23. Anyone else have a case for a guy who they can project as a starter on a good team?
I agree with the above (based on what I've read). These picks would also potentially give you some roster flexibility (if needed) as you could likely stash one or both for a year or two.
The guy I love (but who most mocks have going before #16) is Wade Baldwin. He is relatively late bloomer, but he has absolutely freaky length for a combo guard (6'3" height with 6'11" wingspan), can defend multiple positions, is a good facilitator, a good (not great yet) shooter, and has an elite motor. Would love for him to somehow slip a few slots.
I would LOVE if the C's could get their hands on Luwawu at 16, I have seen him mocked all over the place though.
My favorite suggestion so far is to see if they can get either Denver or Phoenix to trade both of their picks for 3, draft BPA at either 4 or 7 (At least one of Brown/Dunn/Murray/Bender/Hield/Chriss will be available), and then package 16+23+ the other DEN/PHX pick to move up as high as they can and get another player they love. Ending up with something like Brown or Bender and then getting back up for Chriss would be a better result than a pick at 3 and than two later first round talents. This is, of course, assuming that the various mocks are correct and there is no real consensus 3-7. If there is a player they have determined is clearly ahead of the rest of that second tier, I would hope they just select that player.
My favorite suggestion so far is to see if they can get either Denver or Phoenix to trade both of their picks for 3, draft BPA at either 4 or 7 (At least one of Brown/Dunn/Murray/Bender/Hield/Chriss will be available), and then package 16+23+ the other DEN/PHX pick to move up as high as they can and get another player they love. Ending up with something like Brown or Bender and then getting back up for Chriss would be a better result than a pick at 3 and than two later first round talents. This is, of course, assuming that the various mocks are correct and there is no real consensus 3-7. If there is a player they have determined is clearly ahead of the rest of that second tier, I would hope they just select that player.
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Yeah, I didn't include him because he has really shot up the draft boards and I haven't seen him mocked outside of the lottery in many places. He's just a bit behind Dunn as a prospect for me, and I can see teams who'd prefer him, depending on fit. He's two years younger, a significantly better shooter and turns the ball over less. He's not the defensive stopper that Dunn is, but he projects well enough on that end. I love Dunn's mental make-up, and that's what separates them for me, but I don't really know much about Baldwin.
Here's some interesting information.
Player / Height-Weight / Wingspan / Reach / Lane Agility / Max Vertical
Player A: 6'7.25" - 205.6 / 6'9" / 8'7.5" / 10.99 / 31.5"
Player B: 6'8.25" - 216.2 / 6'10.75" / 8'7" / 11.45 / 31.0"
Player C: 6'6.5" - 208.0 / 6'10" / 8'7" / 11.30 / 33.0"
Player D: 6'5.75" - 210.4 / 6'10.75" / 8'6" / 10.51 / 32.0"
In addition, this scouting report - "On the defensive end, [his] problems are still largely the same, and he'll always be at a disadvantage athletically, not having the foot speed to stay in front of most NBA-caliber athletes consistently. His effort level on this end of the floor has improved throughout his three years in school, and he does do a good job using his length to compensate for some of his other shortcomings, but this is still an area he needs to continue working on. His problems are even more pronounced in pick-and-rolls and when coming off screens, as once his defender has a half-step on him he has little chance of recovering from behind." - belongs to:
Player / Height-Weight / Wingspan / Reach / Lane Agility / Max Vertical
Player A: 6'7.25" - 205.6 / 6'9" / 8'7.5" / 10.99 / 31.5"
Player B: 6'8.25" - 216.2 / 6'10.75" / 8'7" / 11.45 / 31.0"
Player C: 6'6.5" - 208.0 / 6'10" / 8'7" / 11.30 / 33.0"
Player D: 6'5.75" - 210.4 / 6'10.75" / 8'6" / 10.51 / 32.0"
Player A = Klay; Player B = Khris Middleton; Player C = Danny Green; Player D = Denzel Valentine
In addition, this scouting report - "On the defensive end, [his] problems are still largely the same, and he'll always be at a disadvantage athletically, not having the foot speed to stay in front of most NBA-caliber athletes consistently. His effort level on this end of the floor has improved throughout his three years in school, and he does do a good job using his length to compensate for some of his other shortcomings, but this is still an area he needs to continue working on. His problems are even more pronounced in pick-and-rolls and when coming off screens, as once his defender has a half-step on him he has little chance of recovering from behind." - belongs to:
Klay Thompson
The lane agility is particularly interesting to me considering the knock on his lateral movement. For more context, Valentine's time is better than a lot of guys generally considered quick- Ulis (10.8), Trimble (10.57), Demetrious Jackson (10.81) and Patrick McCaw (11.01). Though his shuttle run number is worse than all of those guys, plus it is worse than Kyle Wiltjer and tied with Diamond Stone, two bigs who are generally considered slow. But the same argument I've seen others make for Jamal Murray can be applied to Valentine- that defensively, his lack of foot speed can be somewhat offset by his great instincts and court awareness. If the issue with his knees was clearer, I'd like him a lot more at 23 than I would Murray at 3.
Jeff Teague to Indiana, George Hill to Utah, #12 pick to Atlanta.
Valentine is the only guy ready to contribute immediately who is likely to be on the board at 12, and moving Teague would give the Hawks a need at PG, so I'm going to guess Valentine is the pick. Too bad -- I would've liked him at #16, and I thought there was a decent chance he'd be there.
Valentine is the only guy ready to contribute immediately who is likely to be on the board at 12, and moving Teague would give the Hawks a need at PG, so I'm going to guess Valentine is the pick. Too bad -- I would've liked him at #16, and I thought there was a decent chance he'd be there.
I dunno. Between Schroeder and the funny money available this offseason, I don't think Valentine (if available) to ATL is dramatically likelier than it was this morning. Especially if Horford is still up for grabs and there are several more chess pieces to move around.
On Twitter, Marc Stein reported that the Hawks are going to try and "sell" both 1st round picks in order to amass more cap space to re-sign Horford,
Huh? They don't need cap space to re-sign Horford. Maybe he meant to sign someone else to go with Horford? I wonder if AJ for Splitter/random salary/#12 would work for them in that case? Because I still see 9-18 as the sweet spot in this draft and it would make me happy to see Boston with a second pick in the range.
We're saving Amir's non-guaranteed contract as part of the Durant sign-n-trade haven't you been reading and listening to Felger & Mazz?