Hire Farrell? (12/5: 2018 Option Exercised)

Lowrielicious

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I was watching the Yankee game and that's what Girardi had Layne do and that's what P91 and I are talking about. Layne literally had a mound meeting + toss over to 1B to warm up so about 2 minutes if that.

EDIT: YES had the split screen going and you saw when Rothschild phoned to the bullpen to let them know "we're stalling, Layne is coming in ASAP."
Fair enough. Maybe Girardi knows how long Layne needs or is comfortable with. Seemed to work out OK.

My point stands that stalling buys some time, which is time in addition to how much you already gave yourself from when you got the guy up. That total time may mean a guy is rushed or if you planned it better it may mean that its enough for a guy to get ready in his usual sequence.
 

Plympton91

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I don't care if he got the K, there is not anywhere in the universe where Noe Ramirez belongs in a close and late situation when the entire bullpen sans Tazawa had the previous night off. Vintage Farrell right there.
 

Plympton91

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AND THEN HE LEAVES HIM IN !!!!!

You never ever do that. A pitcher uses a massive amount of adrenaline to get out of a bases loaded situation like Ramirez did in the 8th. Your body naturally relaxes on that success and it is really difficult to get yourself sharp again. This is psychology 101.

Classic Farrell. This will happen in the playoffs and the baseball gods will punish the stupidity.
 

Plympton91

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If only we had a game thread for game thread posts
Dear John's Dad,

Game threads are for discussing unique events that are contained within a game. The main board is where we discuss recurring themes that affect the whole season. I am sorry, but your son made another poor decision tonight. Didn't cost them the game because the starter shit the bed. Nonetheless, once again the manager displayed an alarming lack of common sense.
 

Plympton91

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Especially because Farrell's firewall group here can always be counted on to purposely wreck the discussion with non sequiturs and strawmen until a mod caves in to their shout downs and closes the thread.
 

grimshaw

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I didn't think it was the worst call in the world. On the one hand, he had Koji and Ziegler (or terrible situation Kimbrel). On the other, the percentage chance of scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth had to be less than 5%. And it's not like Noe blew up. He gave up a long solo home run against a lineup that has hit a billion long home runs against them this year.

I'd say it was borderline questionable, but they also have to save their guns in slightly more winnable games or they'll be on fumes.

Edit: Found the win expectancy. It was 7.8% after 8, and 4.4% heading to the bottom of the ninth.
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2016-09-13&team=Red Sox&dh=0&season=2016
 
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Plympton91

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I didn't think it was the worst call in the world. On the one hand, he had Koji and Ziegler (or terrible situation Kimbrel). On the other, the percentage chance of scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth had to be less than 5%. And it's not like Noe blew up. He gave up a long solo home run against a lineup that has hit a billion long home runs against them this year.

I'd say it was borderline questionable, but they also have to save their guns in slightly more winnable games or they'll be on fumes.
I understand that argument to a degree, but I think that because the bullpen had the previous day off, and with Porcello going today, playing for a knockout punch on Baltimore was worth the risk that Zeigler or Abad goes 2 days in a row (Abad came in anyway).

I think having Ramirez out there in the 8th with 2 ABs left to cut the deficit is just terrible. If Zeigler had gotten out of the 8th, then using one of the call ups for the 9th with the score still 5-3 is defensible given Britton's dominance. Though I would still have gone with Abad there because outside of his first three outings in Boston, he's been good his whole career at not making things worse when pitching from a deficit.
 

SpaceMan37

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I also don't understand the obsession with Hanigan and his distrust of Vazquez. Who would argue that Vazquez is worse than Haliday and Hanigan? And with 4 catchers on the roster, why is Hanigan hitting with a runner on 1B in the 6th?
 

rembrat

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I understand that argument to a degree, but I think that because the bullpen had the previous day off, and with Porcello going today, playing for a knockout punch on Baltimore was worth the risk that Zeigler or Abad goes 2 days in a row (Abad came in anyway).

I think having Ramirez out there in the 8th with 2 ABs left to cut the deficit is just terrible. If Zeigler had gotten out of the 8th, then using one of the call ups for the 9th with the score still 5-3 is defensible given Britton's dominance. Though I would still have gone with Abad there because outside of his first three outings in Boston, he's been good his whole career at not making things worse when pitching from a deficit.
So you can honestly say had Farrell used one of his better relievers in a (losing) 5-3 against a stud like Britton you wouldn't have been in here moaning about Farrell wasting one of his bullets in a lost game?
 

rembrat

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I also don't understand the obsession with Hanigan and his distrust of Vazquez. Who would argue that Vazquez is worse than Haliday and Hanigan? And with 4 catchers on the roster, why is Hanigan hitting with a runner on 1B in the 6th?
I don't know why he was left in the game to pinch hit but it's very clear that Vaz has fallen out of favor not just with Farrell but with the front office. He's in the doghouse.
 

SpaceMan37

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I don't know why he was left in the game to pinch hit but it's very clear that Vaz has fallen out of favor not just with Farrell but with the front office. He's in the doghouse.
To the extent that we're counting on a guy with negative 0.5 fWAR and an 18 wRC+ this year when Sandy Leon isn't playing? I wish we knew what is going on there. They should at least use all of the catchers when Leon is getting a day off. There are plenty of pinch hitters better than Hanigan and Holaday.
 

rembrat

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Hopefully this works. Farrell on why he didn't PH for Hanigan:


EDIT: Xander did homer later in the game but man if he just made productive outs in the 1st and 2nd innings we probably score 2 extra runs.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Running the game? Didn't Pomeranz give up 5 in 2 innings and the O's got their 17th SB of the season off Hanigan? Ugh. 3 more chances? You knew Showalter was going to manage this like Game 7 of the WS and bring in Britton in the 8th, so, no John, you did not have 3 more shots at scoring. That is terrible logic and then to say it out loud.
 

rembrat

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Running the game? Didn't Pomeranz give up 5 in 2 innings and the O's got their 17th SB of the season off Hanigan? Ugh. 3 more chances? You knew Showalter was going to manage this like Game 7 of the WS and bring in Britton in the 8th, so, no John, you did not have 3 more shots at scoring. That is terrible logic and then to say it out loud.
Non Pom pitchers went 7IP 5H 1ER so maybe Pomeranz was the problem there. And they actually did have a shot at Britton in the 8th when Sandy PH with men on 1B and 2B but he grounded out. You may not like it but the Hanigan non PH wasn't the difference in the game. They had their opportunities and missed them.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's baffling and amazing (BOTH!) that the Sox have a very real chance at winning the World Series this season and that we're discussing Farrell being canned. Anything less than a AL pennant victory and I think he's done. Anything more... Even an epic mismanagement obviously being the reason why they don't end up as WS champs... and he's back.
I've been relatively agnostic on it... I'd obviously prefer the latter... Even if it means 2 additional years of bad management and underperformance relative to talent.
 

grimshaw

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I don't get not pinch hitting for catchers either when your SP is out of the game.
Why is Marco Hernandez detested on every level by JF? If he hates the defense after he pinch hits, that's what Marrero is there for.
You have to wonder if pitchers get to chime in privately with a coach on who they want catching them if not Leon.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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You may not like it but the Hanigan non PH wasn't the difference in the game. They had their opportunities and missed them.
How do you know that? You don't. You give your team the best chance to win and letting Hanigan hit there is not doing that, especially when you are carrying FOUR CATCHERS. One on, one out, you can't say they had other opportunities so they didn't need this one. That is a terrible argument. Hanigan continued his horrendous hitting and predictably chopped into a DP.
 

chrisfont9

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I don't get not pinch hitting for catchers either when your SP is out of the game.
Farrell mentioned how he was running a good game -- which might be true, given that the bullpen did so well. I don't know if this is a skill that turns on and off like a spigot. So you only want to interrupt that work if it's important. Guy on first in the sixth? borderline.

Also to Trotsky, has anyone said he should be fired in a while? Seems like we've downgraded this thread to quibbling. Personally I think the fact that the bullpen is getting its shit together just in time is a big credit to Farrell or his staff. And this game was lost because the 3-4-5 guys went 1/13 including a series of horrible popups when Bundy was grooving every pitch.
 

Rovin Romine

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Hopefully this works. Farrell on why he didn't PH for Hanigan:


EDIT: Xander did homer later in the game but man if he just made productive outs in the 1st and 2nd innings we probably score 2 extra runs.
You know, I wasn't opposed to leaving Noe in for the 9th - Britton is having about as good a season as a closer could have, but the Sox were down by two runs had the top of their order coming up. It's a defensible call.

I was more irritated by not PHing for Hanigan, but I expected there would be a better answer than this. The deep bench isn't there to watch the games - and Hanigan, with his sub-500 OPS is one of the few guys in the starting lineup that you can easily improve on.

PS - I also don't get the "running the good game" comment - the starter was abysmal for 2 innings, and Hembree and Kelly were good for 4 (allowing 4 baserunners). So, is like Hanigan good with pitchers whose surnames are in the first half of the alphabet or what?
 

HomeRunBaker

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AND THEN HE LEAVES HIM IN !!!!!

You never ever do that. A pitcher uses a massive amount of adrenaline to get out of a bases loaded situation like Ramirez did in the 8th. Your body naturally relaxes on that success and it is really difficult to get yourself sharp again. This is psychology 101.

Classic Farrell. This will happen in the playoffs and the baseball gods will punish the stupidity.
We were losing the game. Our win expectation was <10%. These are the times when Ramirez, Hembree, and Kelly are used......when we are trailing and our win expectation is low. When ahead and our win expectation is high is when the higher leverage relievers pitch.....as they are rested since Noe pitched in games like last night.

It isn't hard. You are sounding like one of my right wing friends who is up in arms that the secret service ignored protocol and drove past the nearest hospital the other day.
 

luckysox

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Is it possible that they are attempting to figure out which guy they'll carry as the 2nd catcher in the playoffs? Maybe they need to allow the guys to actually have an at-bat that matters, and to catch different pitchers and not just one starter every 10th day. Sometimes, you lose games just because the other team plays better.
 

Plympton91

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Is it possible that they are attempting to figure out which guy they'll carry as the 2nd catcher in the playoffs?
There is absolutely no guarantee this team is going to make the playoffs. There are 5 teams within 3 games of each other for 3 spots. One 3 game losing streak and they could be fighting for the 2nd wild card slot along with the division.

That's why it is time to manage like every game is the 3rd game of a best of 5 series that is tied 1 game apiece.
 

chrisfont9

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Is it possible that they are attempting to figure out which guy they'll carry as the 2nd catcher in the playoffs? Maybe they need to allow the guys to actually have an at-bat that matters, and to catch different pitchers and not just one starter every 10th day. Sometimes, you lose games just because the other team plays better.
They also need to keep people both rested and sharp. I always appreciated this about Tito, that he would make decisions in September that were risky and didn't always work out, but had the effect of the team being good once the postseason began.
 

Plympton91

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So you can honestly say had Farrell used one of his better relievers in a (losing) 5-3 against a stud like Britton you wouldn't have been in here moaning about Farrell wasting one of his bullets in a lost game?
I'm not asking why he didn't use one of his better relievers. I'm asking why he didn't use someone with a WHIP less than 1.70 and a FIP less than 6.80.

We were losing the game. Our win expectation was <10%. These are the times when Ramirez, Hembree, and Kelly are used......when we are trailing and our win expectation is low. When ahead and our win expectation is high is when the higher leverage relievers pitch.....as they are rested since Noe pitched in games like last night.
If the white flag was out down 5-3 in the 8th, then why did Robby Ross start the inning? He's been the second best reliever on the team all year. And is Abad worse than Ramirez now? Because Abad got used anyway.

Thus, your argument would be more cogent if it weren't contradicted by what Farrell actually did before and after using Ramirez. If you're going to use Ross, you should be willing to Ziegler to clean up Ross's mess. And if you're going to lift Ramirez for Abad after the game is even further out of reach, why not just use Abad in the first place?
 

Rovin Romine

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Pomeranz couldn't execute any of his pitches.
Yeah. But how is that "running a good game?" Farrell just knew that had Pomeranz hit his spots, Hanigan would have gotten 3-up, 3-down innings out of him?

I mean, Hanigan's not a slouch as a receiver, but it's not like he was pulling a no-hitter out of the #4 starter through 6 innings.
 

chrisfont9

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I'm not asking why he didn't use one of his better relievers. I'm asking why he didn't use someone with a WHIP less than 1.70 and a FIP less than 6.80.



If the white flag was out down 5-3 in the 8th, then why did Robby Ross start the inning? He's been the second best reliever on the team all year. And is Abad worse than Ramirez now? Because Abad got used anyway.

Thus, your argument would be more cogent if it weren't contradicted by what Farrell actually did before and after using Ramirez. If you're going to use Ross, you should be willing to Ziegler to clean up Ross's mess. And if you're going to lift Ramirez for Abad after the game is even further out of reach, why not just use Abad in the first place?
I suspect it's because Farrell is trying to get guys in games. Starters have been going pretty deep lately.
 

luckysox

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There is absolutely no guarantee this team is going to make the playoffs. There are 5 teams within 3 games of each other for 3 spots. One 3 game losing streak and they could be fighting for the 2nd wild card slot along with the division.

That's why it is time to manage like every game is the 3rd game of a best of 5 series that is tied 1 game apiece.
Yeah, I understand the math, so thanks for that. Really. But regardless of you freaking the f-out, the team currently has a 94% chance of making the playoffs. They lead the division by 2. Farrell needs to balance the present with the very near future, and if that means Hannigan bats in the 6th inning to get the guy some work in case they DO make the playoffs and Leon gets hurt and sudden;ly Hannigan or Holaday is the godamned starting catcher, well, I'm ok with that. Man, you react to some of these individual decisions on his part like it's 2003 and the Sox ALWAYS lose, and 2013 never happened (where, BTW, he sat two starters in the WS to give the hotter hands a chance, which was, IMO, bold and shows us they guy isn't as dumb as some people here seem to think and that maybe, just maybe, he knows more about this than you do). He's got a ring and a 1st place team in the toughest division in baseball. Jiminy Cricket.
 

grimshaw

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Farrell mentioned how he was running a good game -- which might be true, given that the bullpen did so well. I don't know if this is a skill that turns on and off like a spigot. So you only want to interrupt that work if it's important. Guy on first in the sixth? borderline.
"Running a good game," just doesn't seem like a skill set unique to Hanigan, but maybe it's behind the scenes quantifiable (maybe Kelly loves Hanigan). To me it seems more like coach speak for "Yes I am aware he is the worst hitter in baseball, but this is how I'm justifying his roster spot." Leon and company have been running good games since mid July, so I think it's just something he chucked out there. Hanigan could have ran the hell out of the game up to the 7th or so, but I'm guessing he gets lifted then either way.

3 catchers in August, I'd agree that the 6th is maybe a little early. 4 very capable defensive catchers in September in crunch time, I don't see it as much.

I'm curious if he would have done anything if it were the playoffs.
 
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rembrat

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There is absolutely no guarantee this team is going to make the playoffs. There are 5 teams within 3 games of each other for 3 spots. One 3 game losing streak and they could be fighting for the 2nd wild card slot along with the division.

That's why it is time to manage like every game is the 3rd game of a best of 5 series that is tied 1 game apiece.
It's getting down to the wire for sure but you still can't manage like every game is a game 7. Today though, if the game is close, I expect Farrell to use Ziggler/Koji/Kimbrel as if it were a game 7. See that's the thing, you have to pick your battles. I feel like Farrell, who watched Tito do this for years, understands the marathon aspect of a season very well. Buck can manage like his ass is on fire because he needs every win he can get.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Firewall for Farrell securely in place here regarding the decision to not pinch hit for Hanigan

I'm no longer a political guy but I do listen to a bit and it sounds like a hack from the democratic party defending Hillary or a Fox guy defending Trump. Their guy or gal can do no wrong no matter what.

No excuse for not pinch hitting for the automatic out Hanigan with the two/three studly relievers coming on soon?

"running a good game?!?!?!" something one of the other THREE guys couldn't do the next inning?!?!
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Farrell mentioned how he was running a good game -- which might be true, given that the bullpen did so well. I don't know if this is a skill that turns on and off like a spigot. So you only want to interrupt that work if it's important. Guy on first in the sixth? borderline.

Also to Trotsky, has anyone said he should be fired in a while? Seems like we've downgraded this thread to quibbling. Personally I think the fact that the bullpen is getting its shit together just in time is a big credit to Farrell or his staff. And this game was lost because the 3-4-5 guys went 1/13 including a series of horrible popups when Bundy was grooving every pitch.
What? We're on a hot streak that could turn around in a flash with a few poor decisions. I'm not screaming here about last night like DH3, but based on results relative to Pythag, I think his job is still on the agenda for offseason discussion. It surely hasn't been shelved due to being 2 games up right now, no?
 

benhogan

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We were losing the game. Our win expectation was <10%. These are the times when Ramirez, Hembree, and Kelly are used......when we are trailing and our win expectation is low. When ahead and our win expectation is high is when the higher leverage relievers pitch.....as they are rested since Noe pitched in games like last night.

It isn't hard. You are sounding like one of my right wing friends who is up in arms that the secret service ignored protocol and drove past the nearest hospital the other day.
False equivalency

Hembree is serviceable. Kelly has potential for pitching in big spots. Ramirez is utter garbage.

My bigger issue is the use of Hanigan as a batter in the 6th with a man on, 1 out and Pedroia on deck. Its a terrible call. The bench is full of hitters better then Hanigan. Farrell's excuse is comical, running a game? Leon, Vaz and Holaday are as good as and probably better defensively then Hanigan. Then he mentioned something about bunting if JBJ gets on? Really, BUNTING?

Playoff Farrell is better then this, he played a hunch batting Hanigan, he doesn't need to do that, the talent on this roster is superior to the rest of the AL East.

EDIT: wrong on OUTS, still not a fan on bunting
 
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Moviegoer

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It's baffling and amazing (BOTH!) that the Sox have a very real chance at winning the World Series this season and that we're discussing Farrell being canned. Anything less than a AL pennant victory and I think he's done. Anything more... Even an epic mismanagement obviously being the reason why they don't end up as WS champs... and he's back.
I've been relatively agnostic on it... I'd obviously prefer the latter... Even if it means 2 additional years of bad management and underperformance relative to talent.
Plenty of managers from other teams have been ripped to shreds in here for their performance who have much better track records than John Farrell does. Including ones with World Series wins.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Plenty of managers from other teams have been ripped to shreds in here for their performance who have much better track records than John Farrell does. Including ones with World Series wins.
Gotta love that in this equation the unassailable variable is "SOSH opinion" and not "guy in the clubhouse that has won WS titles."

I'm all for picking this stuff apart but maybe we're just a liiiittle too impressed with our collective managerial acumen here?
 

Moviegoer

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Gotta love that in this equation the unassailable variable is "SOSH opinion" and not "guy in the clubhouse that has won WS titles."

I'm all for picking this stuff apart but maybe we're just a liiiittle too impressed with our collective managerial acumen here?
Maybe. But all I was saying that it's not really all that out of the norm to bash a manager independent of his team's standing at the time or career track record.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Right, I got that. But maybe if youre "bashing" a guy who is taking his team to first place/ WS/ what-have-you, stepping back and seeking some perspective is in order. Maybe the problem isnt with the guy getting bashed.
 

Plympton91

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Yeah, Buck, you have to put a lefty in to face Ortiz with 1 out in the 7th and your season on the line. Wow, if Farrell had just had that brain fart I would be driving to Baltimore to fire him myself. Wow.
 

BeMyValentin

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This is where we discuss brain farts by opposing managers, right? Ones that aren't recurring themes that affect the whole season? This is the game thread, right?
 

joe dokes

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Yeah, Buck, you have to put a lefty in to face Ortiz with 1 out in the 7th and your season on the line. Wow, if Farrell had just had that brain fart I would be driving to Baltimore to fire him myself. Wow.
To bring it closer to the thread title, that non-move was a perfect example of why -- even accepting that ALL of the alleged decisional failures by Farrell really were failures (I think most are at least arguable) -- some sort of comparison is necessary before declaring that Farrell's in-game management is weak.
 

nothumb

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To bring it closer to the thread title, that non-move was a perfect example of why -- even accepting that ALL of the alleged decisional failures by Farrell really were failures (I think most are at least arguable) -- some sort of comparison is necessary before declaring that Farrell's in-game management is weak.
Buck is a really interesting case as a manager. He has two of the craziest seasons relative to Pythag of any manager ever - this one and another with the Orioles in I think 2012 where he was like +10 or more. And the rest of his career he's been up and down, pretty close to neutral vis a vis expected wins.

Of course, this could mean nothing at all, there is no definitive link between managers and variance in Pythag, but it was unusual among the managers I looked up last time we talked about this. We know great bullpens tend to produce overperformance in this area and Britton has been like 2013 Koji this year.

But anyway, back to the quasi-point, I think what was so shocking about it in this case is that's a move that Buck usually makes even in April. We've seen Playoff Farrell the last few weeks in Boston, but in this case it was like seeing Spring Training Farrell bodysnatch Buck. I know Gausman has a big reverse split, but it's not like you need to save Hart for the 9th since you're using Britton there if it's tied or better. It was really mind-boggling.

JF has been a lot better in terms of managing the pen. Granted, it's easier when you have Koji back and all the extra arms, but he has clearly switched gears. I said a month or so back that if the pen rounds into form and JF can pivot from his "long season" mentality down the stretch, we have to consider that context when evaluating him overall. Looks to me like he's doing that. He's still not a great in-game manager but we are probably going to be nitpicking PH chances in the 6th inning rather than bigger picture stuff from here on out.
 

Idabomb333

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FiveThirtyEight just put up an interesting article about the best and worst bullpen managers since 2000 and how valuable it is. Their measure is how well the manager does at using his best relievers for the highest leverage situations, which of course isn't everything. Still, it's an interesting read. Their conclusion is that bullpen management can swing a single win in either direction over a season. The best bullpen managers by their measure gain a win above average, and the worst lose a win below average.

I think it's mostly solid analysis at first pass. I think the biggest thing it doesn't account for is how tired vs. healthy/effective a guy is on a certain day and the effect on whether the best relievers continue to be available all year and the following years. Torre didn't lose any credit for Proctoring Proctor, for example.

Oh, and they say Farrell and Francona are both in the middle of the pack. Not top 10 or bottom 10. Gibbons is bad, Girardi is good according to them. They don't seem to acknowledge Maddon's genius...
 

SpaceMan37

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FiveThirtyEight just put up an interesting article about the best and worst bullpen managers since 2000 and how valuable it is. Their measure is how well the manager does at using his best relievers for the highest leverage situations, which of course isn't everything. Still, it's an interesting read. Their conclusion is that bullpen management can swing a single win in either direction over a season. The best bullpen managers by their measure gain a win above average, and the worst lose a win below average.

I think it's mostly solid analysis at first pass. I think the biggest thing it doesn't account for is how tired vs. healthy/effective a guy is on a certain day and the effect on whether the best relievers continue to be available all year and the following years. Torre didn't lose any credit for Proctoring Proctor, for example.

Oh, and they say Farrell and Francona are both in the middle of the pack. Not top 10 or bottom 10. Gibbons is bad, Girardi is good according to them. They don't seem to acknowledge Maddon's genius...
I must be blind. Where is the list of all managers? Thanks for posting.