How Good Are The Sox Now?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Random note but kind of hard to believe that was the Sox first walkoff HR of the season - for a team this good

First walkoff HR of the year, but it was the third time this season they've come back to win after trailing by 3 or more runs with two outs in the ninth inning. That's pretty incredible considering the rest of the league has done it just six times combined this year. h/t to Richard Justice

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Random note but kind of hard to believe that was the Sox first walkoff HR of the season - for a team this good

First walkoff HR of the year, but it was the third time this season they've come back to win after trailing by 3 or more runs with two outs in the ninth inning. That's pretty incredible considering the rest of the league has done it just six times combined this year. h/t to Richard Justice

 

[tims4wins]

Excellent note. At least they have won a few miracle games with all of the games they seem to have given away

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

This division is ridiculous. 8-8 vs Toronto. 7-8 vs. Baltimore. 4 legit playoff hopefuls.
This team coasts in anywhere else. Freaking non-parity could be the downfall.

Honestly in most divisions Tampa Bay would be a legit playoff hopeful. They are playing 7 games under their pythag, largely because of their terrible record in 1 run games.

They may not be good enough to truly compete for 1st in any other division, but I think they would be a solid 2-3 in many.

 

[dcmissle]

Living dangerously, but I'll certainly take it. Pure and simple -- you need more out of Price at this stage of the season with a two-game lead.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Living dangerously, but I'll certainly take it. Pure and simple -- you need more out of Price at this stage of the season with a two-game lead.

You realize this was the first time he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since August 2, and only the third time since June 24?

Price has been superb since early May, but he's human. We won the game. Have a beer.

 

[Byrdbrain]

You realize this was the first time he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since August 2, and only the third time since June 24?

Price has been superb since early May, but he's human. We won the game. Have a beer.

Hey you there, narrative.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

You realize this was the first time he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since August 2, and only the third time since June 24?

Price has been superb since early May, but he's human. We won the game. Have a beer.

Definitely true.... I'd guess that he's saying that having a start like that won't win a game in the post-season when we're likely matched up against a much better opposing starter. Sure. Most likely true. I still have faith in the guy as one of top two starters in the post-season. I'm guessing if we get the division, and we can adjust the rotation that Porcello will get the "no. 1" playoff spot and Price the "no. 2".
I still don't know who out of the other 3 I'd pick for the 3rd and 4th spots though....

 

[RedOctober3829]

Definitely true.... I'd guess that he's saying that having a start like that won't win a game in the post-season when we're likely matched up against a much better opposing starter. Sure. Most likely true. I still have faith in the guy as one of top two starters in the post-season. I'm guessing if we get the division, and we can adjust the rotation that Porcello will get the "no. 1" playoff spot and Price the "no. 2".
I still don't know who out of the other 3 I'd pick for the 3rd and 4th spots though....

Rodriguez and Buchholz seem like easy choices with Pomeranz going to the pen.

 

[Stitch01]

Three out of three to bury the Yankees, but sure, David Price isn't perfect lets finger wag the optimists.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Definitely true.... I'd guess that he's saying that having a start like that won't win a game in the post-season when we're likely matched up against a much better opposing starter. Sure. Most likely true. I still have faith in the guy as one of top two starters in the post-season. I'm guessing if we get the division, and we can adjust the rotation that Porcello will get the "no. 1" playoff spot and Price the "no. 2".
I still don't know who out of the other 3 I'd pick for the 3rd and 4th spots though....

Unless, of course, that "much better opposing starter" has one of his mediocre games. Which they all do, including Price.

 

[dcmissle]

You realize this was the first time he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since August 2, and only the third time since June 24?

Price has been superb since early May, but he's human. We won the game. Have a beer.

Yup. Remark function of the tightness of this race.

 

[Rasputin]

Rodriguez and Buchholz seem like easy choices with Pomeranz going to the pen.

You mean Rodriguez and Pomeranz seem like easy choices with Buchholz going to the pen.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Red Sox are in great shape to be the No. 2 seed, as Cleveland gets injured bit by bit

 

[Rasputin]

The Red Sox are in great shape to be the No. 2 seed, as Cleveland gets injured bit by bit

If nothing else, the road to the LCS seems pretty clear. Win the division, face the Tribe without Carrasco and Salazar and hello Texas in the LCS.

 

[PapaSox]

If nothing else, the road to the LCS seems pretty clear. Win the division, face the Tribe without Carrasco and Salazar and hello Texas in the LCS.

Let's not be jinks things here.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah its a best of 5 in that scenario. Silly stuff happens

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

If nothing else, the road to the LCS seems pretty clear. Win the division, face the Tribe without Carrasco and Salazar and hello Texas in the LCS.

Texas could easily lose to Toronto or Baltimore

 

[Rasputin]

Let's not be jinks things here.

I didn't say that's what was going to happen, but for a lot of people for much of this season, there were serious doubts about how the Sox could go very far in the post season even if they made it. Well now that path is pretty clear. Winning the division is a clearly attainable goal, as is beating a Cleveland team that doesn't have Salazar or Carrasco.

Still gotta go play the games and all.

Texas could easily lose to Toronto or Baltimore

God, that would be boring. I've had enough of them already, and we still have half the remaining schedule against them.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

God, that would be boring. I've had enough of them already, and we still have half the remaining schedule against them.

Ha, you know better than that. Ain't nothing boring about a playoff series.

 

[Broda]

Let's not be jinks things here.

I already jinxed cleveland.

Who should I pick out of the NL....

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I already jinxed cleveland.

Who should I pick out of the NL....

Don't jinx the Cubs - that's cruel. Would be like bullying a 10 year old...

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't believe in jinxes so will not be held responsible for anything that happens after this post is put up. ;-)

The 2016 Red Sox are an absolutely fantastic baseball team. It's been a frustrating season in many ways, as we've seen a revolving door in LF because of one injury after another, we've seen some of Boston's best young prospects get hurt, we've seen the bullpen blow games, we've seen Price not live up to his billing for a good part of the year, we've seen the disappointing record in one-run games, the works. And yet....this team is really, really, really good.

First off, the Sox sport the 5th best record in all of baseball. That alone makes them pretty good. So despite the frustrations, they are 20 games above .500, on pace to win 92 games, which would be very good.

Second, the Sox have the 2nd best run differential in all of baseball. Only the Cubs have a better one.

Third, the Sox have the best offense in baseball by a long ways. They've scored 825 runs, which is 33 more than the next best offense (Colorado, at 792). Their .821 ops is first, with second place being Colorado at .800. The Sox have the best team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Fourth, the Sox have had some of the best starting pitching in baseball since the all-star break. They have the 2nd best team era in all of baseball (including bullpens) since the ASB, with a team era of 3.57. Only the Cubs have been better.

And they're doing it in the toughest division in baseball by a long way. Here are the divisional records, adding up the W-L records of each team in the division.

AL East: 387-353 (.523)
AL Central: 366-375 (.494)
AL West: 373-368 (.503)
NL East: 364-377 (.491)
NL Central: 374-367 (.505)
NL West: 358-382 (.484)

If you take the combined run differential of each division, it looks like this:

AL East: +241
AL Central: -100
AL West: -28
NL East: -142
NL Central: +97
NL West: -68

And if you compare teams in each division relative to their place in the standings, you'll see that the AL East dominates.

1st place team: Bos (5th best record among 1st place teams)
2nd place team: Bal (best record among 2nd place teams)
3rd place team: Tor (best record among 3rd place teams)
4th place team: NYY (best record among 4th place teams)
5th place team: TB (best record among 5th place teams)

Tampa, as the 5th place team in the division, has a run differential better than 11 other teams in the majors.

And if you look at baseball-references SRS rating system, the AL East is the only division where everyone has a positive SRS rating. No other division has more than 3.

So here's the point. The Red Sox have given us a lot of frustration, but really, they've been a tremendous team, playing in a brutally tough division. And with getting guys back from injury, they are positioning themselves nicely for the playoffs. It's been a crazy season, but mostly a lot of fun.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

They also seem to be carving out an identity for themselves in thriving when the schedule became toughest. All those games on the road with the West Cost swing and 3 more in Toronto could have been disastrous but instead seems to have made them stronger. JF alluded to it yesterday after the game: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/50958/red-sox-continue-to-find-ways-to-win

"These last three weeks, I think we jelled even further having to go out to the West Coast a couple of times, lengthy road trips," Farrell said. "There was [an] inner belief in our group that continued to grow."

All they need now is a nickname...

 

[RedOctober3829]

You mean Rodriguez and Pomeranz seem like easy choices with Buchholz going to the pen.

No. Pomeranz IMO is a better option out of the pen for both effectiveness and keeping his IP down. He's currently pitched 80 more IP than he ever has and I'd want to limit that as much as possible. If Buchholz pitches like he did on Friday night, he's a solid #4 option.

 

[Plympton91]

I don't believe in jinxes so will not be held responsible for anything that happens after this post is put up. ;-)

The 2016 Red Sox are an absolutely fantastic baseball team. It's been a frustrating season in many ways, as we've seen a revolving door in LF because of one injury after another, we've seen some of Boston's best young prospects get hurt, we've seen the bullpen blow games, we've seen Price not live up to his billing for a good part of the year, we've seen the disappointing record in one-run games, the works. And yet....this team is really, really, really good.

First off, the Sox sport the 5th best record in all of baseball. That alone makes them pretty good. So despite the frustrations, they are 20 games above .500, on pace to win 92 games, which would be very good.

Second, the Sox have the 2nd best run differential in all of baseball. Only the Cubs have a better one.

Third, the Sox have the best offense in baseball by a long ways. They've scored 825 runs, which is 33 more than the next best offense (Colorado, at 792). Their .821 ops is first, with second place being Colorado at .800. The Sox have the best team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Fourth, the Sox have had some of the best starting pitching in baseball since the all-star break. They have the 2nd best team era in all of baseball (including bullpens) since the ASB, with a team era of 3.57. Only the Cubs have been better.

And they're doing it in the toughest division in baseball by a long way. Here are the divisional records, adding up the W-L records of each team in the division.

AL East: 387-353 (.523)
AL Central: 366-375 (.494)
AL West: 373-368 (.503)
NL East: 364-377 (.491)
NL Central: 374-367 (.505)
NL West: 358-382 (.484)

If you take the combined run differential of each division, it looks like this:

AL East: +241
AL Central: -100
AL West: -28
NL East: -142
NL Central: +97
NL West: -68

And if you compare teams in each division relative to their place in the standings, you'll see that the AL East dominates.

1st place team: Bos (5th best record among 1st place teams)
2nd place team: Bal (best record among 2nd place teams)
3rd place team: Tor (best record among 3rd place teams)
4th place team: NYY (best record among 4th place teams)
5th place team: TB (best record among 5th place teams)

Tampa, as the 5th place team in the division, has a run differential better than 11 other teams in the majors.

And if you look at baseball-references SRS rating system, the AL East is the only division where everyone has a positive SRS rating. No other division has more than 3.

So here's the point. The Red Sox have given us a lot of frustration, but really, they've been a tremendous team, playing in a brutally tough division. And with getting guys back from injury, they are positioning themselves nicely for the playoffs. It's been a crazy season, but mostly a lot of fun.

Great post. I think the frustration is driven by the understanding of exactly how good the offense is, as you laid out. They've been held back by the pitching and its use. Now that seems to be getting straightened out. Yea haw.

 

[Zososoxfan]

[snip]

Third, the Sox have the best offense in baseball by a long ways. They've scored 825 runs, which is 33 more than the next best offense (Colorado, at 792). Their .821 ops is first, with second place being Colorado at .800. The Sox have the best team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Fourth, the Sox have had some of the best starting pitching in baseball since the all-star break. They have the 2nd best team era in all of baseball (including bullpens) since the ASB, with a team era of 3.57. Only the Cubs have been better.

[snip]

Good post. I looked up post-ASB numbers for the offense because I wanted to filter out the hot hitting start, and the Sox are still at .804 OPS, good for second only to Colorado (barely), and far ahead of Atlanta (!) who is third at .774.

 

[grimshaw]

Said in OB's soft dulcet tones: If the Sox go 6-8 the rest of the way, one of those teams needs to go 9-5. Even that is kind of a lot to ask since they all play each other still, and the Jays still play Seattle. The O's may have a crack with Tilman looking healthy and the D-backs remaining on the schedule which can give them a built in breather that the Sox and Jays don't have.

Either way the Sox won't get much of a break, since potentially catching Cleveland will probably come down to the end series.

I'm hoping for a Seattle miracle, because I have no interest in drawing an AL East team.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Just for fun, a thought experiment: Let's take it as a default that teams win three-game series at home by 2 to 1, and split four-game series 2-2. If that happens the rest of the way, here is the result:

BOS: 6-8, final record: 90-72
BAL: 7-7, final record: 88-74
TOR: 6-8, final record: 87-75

However, if you run that with home teams winning four-game series 3-1, you get this:

BOS: 5-9, final record: 89-73
BAL: 8-6, final record: 89-73
TOR: 7-7, final record: 88-74

This points to the Trumpean yuuugeness of the upcoming Baltimore series. The Sox really need to at least hold the O's to a split. If they can do that, the road from there to the division crown is pretty straight (though not necessarily easy).

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Just for fun, a thought experiment: Let's take it as a default that teams win three-game series at home by 2 to 1, and split four-game series 2-2. If that happens the rest of the way, here is the result:

BOS: 6-8, final record: 90-72
BAL: 7-7, final record: 89-73
TOR: 6-8, final record: 88-74

However, if you run that with home teams winning four-game series 3-1, you get this:

BOS: 5-9, final record: 89-73
BAL: 8-6, final record: 90-72
TOR: 7-7, final record: 89-73

This points to the Trumpean yuuugeness of the upcoming Baltimore series. The Sox really need to at least hold the O's to a split. If they can do that, the road from there to the division crown is pretty straight (though not necessarily easy).

Balt and Tor are both starting at 81-67. Your thought experiment seems to assume that they're starting at 82-66.

 

[NoXInNixon]

It's not enough for me that the Sox win the division. They need to win by a comfortable enough margin to be able to set up their rotation for the DS with zero danger of falling into the wild card.

 

[Al Zarilla]

It's not enough for me that the Sox win the division. They need to win by a comfortable enough margin to be able to set up their rotation for the DS with zero danger of falling into the wild card.

A year ago we were hoping the team could finish at .500, which didn't happen of course.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's not enough for me that the Sox win the division. They need to win by a comfortable enough margin to be able to set up their rotation for the DS with zero danger of falling into the wild card.

As long as they can win the division, even on the final day of the year, they'll be able to set up the rotation for the LDS. There are three off-days between the end of the season and Game 1 of the LDS, so the only starter who wouldn't be on full rest for Game 1 is the guy who starts Game 162.

The way the rotation is aligned right now, by using the one off-day (9/26), they can line Price up for that final regular season game if need be. If they have to do that, Price could still come back and start Game 2 of the LDS on regular rest (with Porcello going in Game 1, of course).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It's not enough for me that the Sox win the division. They need to win by a comfortable enough margin to be able to set up their rotation for the DS with zero danger of falling into the wild card.

Texas hasn't clinched anything yet. Best record or bust.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Texas hasn't clinched anything yet. Best record or bust.

162-0 or bust!

 

[simplicio]

Texas hasn't clinched anything yet. Best record or bust.

Texas' remaining schedule is a joke. OAK-LAA-OAK-MIN-TB. If they lose more than four games the rest of the year they should be ashamed.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Texas' remaining schedule is a joke. OAK-LAA-OAK-MIN-TB. If they lose more than four games the rest of the year they should be ashamed.

Oakland swept a 4 game series at KC this week and has split in Texas so far. The spoiler thing can be real.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The only thing that bodes well for the Sox in terms of their chances of catching the Rangers is that the Rangers are a sub-.500 team this year against teams with a sub-.500 record (26-29 entering today). But even if they continue that winning percentage through these last couple weeks, that's still 5-6 more wins and 93-94 in total.

Regardless, the Rangers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 13-7 in their last 20, 19-11 in their last 30. They certainly aren't trending toward an abject, 2011-Red-Sox-esque collapse over their last 13 games. Which is what it would likely take for the Red Sox to make up the 3.5 game deficit in the next two weeks.

Obviously, they keep playing for the best record as long as they can, but I don't think it's in the cards at this point.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Balt and Tor are both starting at 81-67. Your thought experiment seems to assume that they're starting at 82-66.

Sorry, you're right. That's what I get for doing it in my head instead of using a spreadsheet. Fixed.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Sorry, you're right. That's what I get for doing it in my head instead of using a spreadsheet. Fixed.

I think it really points out how yuuuuge it is to have built the lead up to 3 games on both teams.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Pomeranz is clearly tiring. His command has left him the last couple starts.

 

[Plympton91]

You mean Rodriguez and Pomeranz seem like easy choices with Buchholz going to the pen.

You were saying? They each get two more starts. Pomeranz hasn't been very good. It's entirely possible he is fatigued after his first full year of starting.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Wright apparently had a good throwing session recently. I wonder if there would be any consideration to having him take the last two starts that were slated for Pom and have him start doing one, two inning bullpen assignments....

 

[Max Power]

How good are the Red Sox now? Better than the Yankees, that's for sure.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

How good are the Sox now, you ask? Substantially better than the Yankees, I think it is safe to say. And this nut-crushing sweep still feels better than it should given the state of the Yankees this season. I guess, for me at least, the rivalry is alive and well. I went to the game Friday and sat next to the sox dugout (hate the net, BTW). I was in full-throated MFY schadenfreud for all 9 innings.

This is a very good team and they appear to be getting better. Perfect timing for a deep playoff run. Life is good.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Yeah, about the only specific weakness this team has right now is that only two of the starting pitchers seem more or less bankable (and one of them is the guy with the famously dicey postseason record).

The good news is that they aren't likely to be facing anybody, at least this side of the World Series, who doesn't have the same problem.

 

[DJnVa]

I know the wild card makes everything different, and I know the Yankees are a flawed team, but have they ever come into Fenway in the race for a postseason spot and been swept in 4 games like that?

If the reverse had happened I'm sure we'd hear all shorts of nicknames for the weekend--Boston Massacre headlines and the like.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Last time the Sox swept the Yankees in a 4 game series was 1990.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Breaking down the season so far into the 87 games up to the ASB and the 62 games since gives some eye-popping numbers.

The Cubs, as everyone is well aware, have dominated both halves of the season. Pre-ASB they were 18 games above .500 (63-35 .602) which was best in MLB but a bit down from their peak and underperforming their .659 pythag as they were 2nd in RS (5.23/g) and 4th in RA (3.65/g) for a +1.58/g RD, well ahead of 2nd place WSN (+1.17/g), STL (+1.01/g) and the AL's best CLE (+0.92/g).

Boston, meanwhile, was 11 games above .500 (49-38 .563) and playing right on their .566 pythag. Their run-scoring was MLB-best 5.63/g (1.10 rpg better than the rest of the AL average) but they were 24th in RA (4.87/g) and so had a good / not great +0.76/g RD which was 2nd in their division (TOR +0.82), slightly better than division-leading BAL (+0.47/g) and good for 7th best in MLB.

Since the Break, Boston's bats have cooled off a bit (5.48/g) but they are still good for 2nd best in MLB (COL 5.64/g) but they have reduced their runs allowed by an astonishing 1.16rpg to 3.71/g. This is 2nd only to the Cubs' 3.11rpg (admittedly, a long way behind), but because the Cubs' bats have cooled significantly (4.51rpg, 15th in MLB) they have by far the best post-ASB RD in baseball (+1.77/g vs 2nd place CHC +1.39 and 3rd best TBR(!) +0.85/g). 3rd best in the AL is CLE at +0.36/g a full 1.41rpg less than Boston's diff. The other AL playoff contenders?

MLBRk  Team      RS     RA      RD
  1.   BOS      5.48   3.71   +1.77
  9.   CLE      4.80   4.44   +0.36
 13.   DET      4.18   4.15   +0.03
 14.   SEA      4.55   4.53   +0.02
 15.   TOR      4.50   4.50    0.00
 17.   TEX      4.60   4.73   -0.13
 21.   BAL      4.18   4.40   -0.23

I had bought into the whole argument that Texas had defied gravity in the 1H but shored up their weaknesses with Lucroy et al and now deserved (most of) their lofty place in the standings. Granted, pre- and post-ASB is not the right split for that argument - it should be the 31 Jul trade deadline - but the effect should be apparent by now and isn't - they continue to defy gravity and despite a mediocre 8-8 start to September, should be difficult to catch with their easy remaining schedule (Sox trail by 2 1/2 games at this writing). Tex won 7.5 more games than their pythag predicted in their 80 games played in the 1H and have added almost 5 more in their 60 games since. That's first by a good margin for both halves of the season. The Sox, meanwhile, have underperformed in the 2nd half by 5.7 games, behind only the Giants (-6.5 games) and Rays (-6.0).

But the bottom line is overwhelmingly positive. When the starters put together 3 weeks of almost universal quality starts and the expanded rosters plus the return of a healthy Koji, Boston's one glaring weakness was given a chance to recover its mojo. The bullpen has responded by posting the lowest ERA in MLB (now 0.92), the 2nd best FIP (2.62 vs NYM 2.53), the 2nd best K/9 (11.1 vs LAD 12.5), the best LOB% (91.1%), the 4th best HR rate (0.57/9IP), a decent walk rate (3.02/9IP), etc. Yes, most of the starters have come off their torrid pace of late, but I don't see a front 3 that can challenge Price/Porcello/ERod in the AL, especially since the Indians staff got gut-punched by the injury bug twice in a week.

Things can still go wrong, of course, but on paper at least I believe that only the Cubs belong in the same conversation as these Red Sox.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

FanGraphs now projects the Red Sox to have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs (86.5 Division, 12.9 WC) and the best chance of winning the World Series at 18.1% (Cubs at 17.3, Dodgers at 14.8, Nats at 14.0, Francona-men 9.3, Rangers 8.6).