How to Add a Starting Pitcher

[OCD SS]

The primary goal of this offseason, stated both by SoSHers and Breslow, is to add two starting pitchers. Breslow also said ideally one would come via trade and one via free agency. The Sox have since added Giolitio via free agency, but also dealt Sale to bring in a young 2Bman.

The rotation now looks like Giolito, Bello, and Piveta as locks, with Houck, Crawford, and Whitlock all training to go into the season as SP, but with solid reasons for each to move into the bullpen.

The SP market has thinned out, with Boras's top clients Snell and Montgomery still looking for top dollar. They are likely to take awhile to sign and the rest of the FA market is not inspiring. The other option is still a trade, but the price in prospects is likely to be steep, especially for a pitcher with multiple years of control. Assuming Bello and Casas are off the table, a top SP likely isn't coming without including Mayer, Teel, or Anthony.

Without worrying too much about the exact dollars or prospect cost, which rout do you prefer Breslow to go?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Free agency, unless we get several years of control. Just write the stupid check.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Edward Cabrera for something less than the big 3 prospects.

 

[snowmanny]

I voted 2, but I am not convinced he’s worth it. Last choice is giving up one of the top 3 prospects.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

It just seems so obvious, given the complete lack of long term commitments with the pitching staff, to sign Montgomery.

Stable, predictable, no QO, post season bulldog, AL East of experience.

Should cost around 25-27 AAV. Which just isn’t a crazy number given the cheap production elsewhere.

 

[jon abbey]

You should probably add a 'none of the above' option since that is what I think will happen, Bresley will try to fix what they've got and proceed from there.

 

[OCD SS]

You should probably add a 'none of the above' option since that is what I think will happen, Bresley will try to fix what they've got and proceed from there.

Good call

 

[IpswichSox]

Free agency, unless we get several years of control. Just write the stupid check.

This is the obvious route to take, unless the deal is approaching Xander-like craziness. Yes, Montgomery's 2024 might be "wasted" in the sense that we may not be truly competing for the division, but Montgomery would be helping beyond this year. It's just money, no prospects, and with the financial flexibility coming up, even if it turns into a Sale-like burden, it wouldn't drag the whole payroll down. Come on, John, just do it.

 

[FlexFlexerson]

I think, unfortunately, the only good fits for the Sox this off-season are all off the board. It seems that the Sox want to wait for the 26-28 window to really compete, and with both Montgomery and Snell we'd be paying a lot of money for them to pitch the best for us when we're not planning on being competitive and then paying them a lot of money (and a roster spot) when they'd be declining just as we're getting ready to field a competitive team again (hopefully, if all goes well). And given that, I don't know why you'd give up a single prospect for pitching for the next two years. Just roll with what we have and throw out scrapheap JAGs when those guys get injured or whatever. At this point, I'd rather see guys like Bello and Crawford keep making progress and lock them up if we can.

If we presuppose "something" has to/will be be done, I suppose Montgomery is the best fit for reasons stated above by others.

 

[geoflin]

I was never in favor of signing either Montgomery or Snell and don't want to trade any of the top 3 prospects. So I voted to trade lesser prospects for a lesser starter, e.g. Edward Cabrera or similar.

 

[chawson]

Not arguing that I see it this way but is it plausible that the Sox have already added their second/back-end starter in Richard Fitts?

 

[bringbackburks]

If they can fit Snell into the budget then he should be the move. He's the best remaining starter and he immediately slots in as the team's no. 1. He obviously has his worts, but by both track record and ceiling, adding him to the rotation gives them the best team for next year

 

[simplicio]

Not arguing that I see it this way but is it plausible that the Sox have already added their second/back-end starter in Richard Fitts?

If they currently do have everything they need in house, that's of course the best possible outcome. But there are so many questions about everyone in that rotation past Bello that a Montgomery insurance policy seems extremely valuable. If Bailey can make it all work without him I'll be ecstatic, but I'd definitely be entering that season at peak anxiety before they prove it.

 

[CR67dream]

I'm not married to any one approach. Given the circumstances, I'd like to see them make a serious play for Montgomery, but I'd be good with trading for a a mid/back end starter. As others have noted, Cabrera is a great example, and has some upside. Ideally, I'd love to see them do both of those things, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm not as opposed to a big splash of a trade as some seem to be, but I'd really like to hold on to Teel if possible, and I'd have to judge that kind of trade by the actual pieces involved. I'm absolutely open to the concept. I won't be mad if they land Snell either, and I'm sure I'll talk myself into loving it if it happens. The only thing unacceptable I see here is doing nothing at all. Please don't do nothing, Craig.

Ultimately I voted option 4, I just don't see them standing completely pat, but top end pieces coming in seems increasingly unlikely in any manner.

Not arguing that I see it this way but is it plausible that the Sox have already added their second/back-end starter in Richard Fitts?

That's an interesting thought. I honestly don't have any idea how close to ready they think he is (or a whole lot about him at all), and from everything I've read the assumption is he's in Worcester to start. I think if they thought he could fill that role right now they'd probably be trying to sell it to us already. I still think one more arm is needed at minimum.

 

[Cassvt2023]

You should probably add a 'none of the above' option since that is what I think will happen, Bresley will try to fix what they've got and proceed from there.

I thought one of the choices should have been "Continue to dumpster dive on short term deals in the FA market". Because that is what I'm guessing they're going to do. Breslow should just identify which of Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen he and Bailey think they can squeeze the most out of. I'm not saying this is what they should do, but probably similar to what they will.

 

[Kliq]

I might be in the minority here, but I'm frustrated they didn't go after Stroman, given how reasonable the deal he got from the Yankees was. Maybe we would have to pay a bit more because Stroman wanted to pitch in NY, but consistent, above-average starters that you could have start a playoff game don't grow on trees. I think even with the Sale trade, I'd feel a lot more confident about this team's chances if you added Giolito and Stroman to the rotation, and it's not like that would break the bank.

 

[astrozombie]

I thought one of the choices should have been "Continue to dumpster dive on short term deals in the FA market". Because that is what I'm guessing they're going to do. Breslow should just identify which of Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen he and Bailey think they can squeeze the most out of. I'm not saying this is what they should do, but probably similar to what they will.

This. It's probably going to be this way for awhile too, would be my guess.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

At this point, I think the best course of action is to extend Pivetta, and maybe add a cost controlled starter if you can get a decent one for like Duran and Houck or something.

I’m not trading one of the top three for a pitcher unless we’re getting 4+ years or control. And I’m not very excited for Montgomery; and I think Snell would be a disaster. Next year is probably the better time to sign a top free agent pitcher.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think Pivetta and Crawford both have the inside track on securing rotation spots. Bello and Giolito are locks, so they'll probably go and grab one of the aforementioned veterans on a short term deal. I'd prefer Paxton or Ryu to have another LHP on the staff. This puts Houck in the bullpen, maybe to even close if they trade Jansen. Whitlock has been very solid in the bullpen when healthy, and Winckowski really seemed to find his niche there last year as a multi-inning reliever.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I thought one of the choices should have been "Continue to dumpster dive on short term deals in the FA market". Because that is what I'm guessing they're going to do. Breslow should just identify which of Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen he and Bailey think they can squeeze the most out of. I'm not saying this is what they should do, but probably similar to what they will.

If they don't believe they should sign someone like Montgomery because it's not lining up with their "window", they should absolutely sign a couple of guys like this and hopefully flip them at the deadline for prospects. Obviously a bit of luck involved.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

If these were check boxes I would vote for 1 AND 4. Adding Snell gives you a top of the rotation starter and trading for a a 4/5 starter (I threw out a Brady Singer earlier but I’m sure Breslow/Bailey/Willard have a wish list of guys that think they can improve) provides you with nice depth. This would push Houck and Crawford to multi-inning relievers with the ability to join the rotation when an inevitable injury happens. It would also somewhat “lock” Whitlock into a relief ace role capable of going multiple consecutive days - something I feel we need if we move on from Jansen.

I’m not interested in trading our top tier of prospects just to get to the edge of contention. Those are the type of moves you make when you’re already a contender and trying to get over the top.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I voted sign Montgomery but I think it’s pretty obvious that they aren’t going to add any payroll.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I voted for Montgomery but would also like to see the Sox add 2 of the Cease/Burnes/Luzardo/Wishful thinking Seattle youngster group even if this requires moving one or more of the Mayer/Anthony/Teel group. I think that’s the order in which I’d like to move our prospects, the order of my pursued SP above is completely random.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I voted sign Montgomery. I think adding a 2nd top half of the rotation starter to go with Bello puts them in legitimate contention for all three wild card slots. It’s the easiest. I think there is a less than 1% chance this happens, though.

Ideally, I’d like them to then trade Mayer and Bleis + to get someone in the Cease, Luzardo área, and then with three top half of the rotation starters, I think they’re a likely playoff team and could make some noise when they get there.

What I think they will do - try to add another version of Crawford, but continue to realize that outside of Devers, Bello, Casas, Grissom, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Crawford, there is really nothing valuable to trade in the market (Jansen and Martin aside, but they’re mentioned later). So they’ll add someone from the scrap heap (I’ll say Lorenzen because the team will already be bad and I’d prefer them not to be bad and unlikable - ie adding Clevinger).

What I’d do (realistic version) - actually admit that they’re kind of screwed in 2024 and 2025. Trade Jansen, Martin and O’Neill and Refsnyder (if there is literally any value in those two, probably not though) as soon as possible. Try to extend Pivetta (Lugo deal) and if not, trade him quickly too.

Turn around and sign a couple of “Lorenzen” starters and a couple of relief pitchers with the hopes of dealing them in July also, to try and buy prospects both now and in July.

 

[jon abbey]

would also like to see the Sox add 2 of the Cease/Burnes/Luzardo/Wishful thinking Seattle youngster group even if this requires moving one or more of the Mayer/Anthony/Teel group.

Just for a reality check, those three Sox prospects are great but all three of them combined are almost certainly not enough to get two guys from that list.

 

[benhogan]

This team feels years away, hate the idea of paying FA until the team is right at the cusp of contention.

Keep the kids, promote from within, do more Sale-type trades is how I'd like to see them use their budget.

Subsidize Kenley & get a young player from a team that is contending.

I'm a casual Sox/MLB fan these days, so if this upsets the hardcore Sox fans who want to win now, apologies.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

After listening to Baseball America’s Red Sox Prospects pod (free on Spotify), trading one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel for 2 years of Cease or 3 of Luzardo (I love Luzardo) would be a MAJOR MAJOR mistake.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3WuJH7ovepmDwPl52t7jmf?si=GNW7xK51ROexfit30ecY4A

 

[SouthernBoSox]

This team feels years away, hate the idea of paying FA until the team is right at the cusp of contention.

Keep the kids, promote from within, do more Sale-type trades is how I'd like to see them use their budget.

Subsidize Kenley & get a young player from a team that is contending.

I'm a casual Sox/MLB fan these days, so if this upsets the hardcore Sox fans who want to win now, apologies.

I hope people understand the circular logic of this.

If you are never good which makes you never spend which makes you never good.

Also, the time to spend is DURING the young days of an emerging core. Not later. You want expiring contracts when they get to Arb years. You don’t say okay we have the core 3 years into their control and then spend on other free agents.

It’s why Montgomery makes sense NOW. His contract will be expiring when Casas, Duran, Teel, Roman etc start to get expensive and extension need to happen.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think, unfortunately, the only good fits for the Sox this off-season are all off the board. It seems that the Sox want to wait for the 26-28 window to really compete, and with both Montgomery and Snell we'd be paying a lot of money for them to pitch the best for us when we're not planning on being competitive and then paying them a lot of money (and a roster spot) when they'd be declining just as we're getting ready to field a competitive team again (hopefully, if all goes well). And given that, I don't know why you'd give up a single prospect for pitching for the next two years. Just roll with what we have and throw out scrapheap JAGs when those guys get injured or whatever. At this point, I'd rather see guys like Bello and Crawford keep making progress and lock them up if we can.

If we presuppose "something" has to/will be be done, I suppose Montgomery is the best fit for reasons stated above by others.

This may very well be true, but unless they are saving the $ for a big name pitcher from that window, it would still help to bring in someone now to relieve the pressure on the rest of the staff as they develop.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Just for a reality check, those three Sox prospects are great but all three of them combined are almost certainly not enough to get two guys from that list.

Just what I’d expect from a Yankees fan. lol. I’m kidding, but you’re also sort of proving something I’ve said for a long time. We tend to hold tight to our prospect binkies and value them far more than others do. You’re likely correct in your assessment. I worry that we hold onto Blake Swihart type players too hard and miss out on a trade that helps.

 

[FlexFlexerson]

This may very well be true, but unless they are saving the $ for a big name pitcher from that window, it would still help to bring in someone now to relieve the pressure on the rest of the staff as they develop.

Yeah, but you don't really need anyone particularly good to do that. You can just rotate around scrap heap projects to piece together innings until the team is ready to compete in 3 or so years. As long as Bello and Crawford get their starts, I don't see what difference it really makes.

 

[jon abbey]

Just what I’d expect from a Yankees fan. lol. I’m kidding, but you’re also sort of proving something I’ve said for a long time. We tend to hold tight to our prospect binkies and value them far more than others do. You’re likely correct in your assessment. I worry that we hold onto Blake Swihart type players too hard and miss out on a trade that helps.

No, it’s not that, it’s that if you’ve been following what those teams want for those guys (and I don’t think they’re all even actually available, for instance DiPoto said multiple times recently he’s not trading young pitching), it’s a huge haul for pretty much any of them. There’s a reason none of them have been moved yet.

 

[LogansDad]

No, it’s not that, it’s that if you’ve been following what those teams want for those guys (and I don’t think they’re all even actually available, for instance DiPoto said multiple times recently he’s not trading young pitching), it’s a huge haul for pretty much any of them. There’s a reason none of them have been moved yet.

Yep, it doesn't help that there is a major shortage of what I would call "top of the line starting pitching" all around the league (and the Mariners might have four of those), so the teams who are willing to move those guys can basically name their price. I think Burnes might be more likely to move around the trade deadline, but at that point I honestly think Milwaukee would be better off just holding onto him and getting the QO pick.

 

[benhogan]

I hope people understand the circular logic of this.

If you are never good which makes you never spend which makes you never good.

Also, the time to spend is DURING the young days of an emerging core. Not later. You want expiring contracts when they get to Arb years. You don’t say okay we have the core 3 years into their control and then spend on other free agents.

It’s why Montgomery makes sense NOW. His contract will be expiring when Casas, Duran, Teel, Roman etc start to get expensive and extension need to happen.

I'm not saying never spend. I mean it's just the owner's money and there are no budgets, right?

Montgomery at ~6yrs/$150MM++ doesn't excite me, there are other ways they could efficiently use their capital instead of having Scott Boras drain the Sox budget. YMMV

At this stage, I like it when they wait until the end of FA/March to see what players shake out and then make moves during the season to fill needs.

 

[PedroisGod]

I'd be ok with Snell or Montgomery. I also like the idea of trading for a starter without giving up one of the big 3 prospects, and I like Edward Cabrera, Reid Detmers, and Chase Silseth in particular. I think the long term goal is for Breslow and Bailey to be able to identify pitchers that they can turn into above average pitchers, much like Tampa did with guys like Rasmussen, or Springs. If you have a system that works, I'd much rather do something like that than to invest heavily on arms. It's just going to take time for Breslow and Bailey to make a real difference there, and in the meantime, the Sox need pitching. It's easy to just throw money at Snell or Montgomery, and I'd have no issue with them doing that, but if they are choosing to hold that money back for future players, that also makes sense to me.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I'm still holding out hope that the Red Sox sign Montgomery. I imagine part of Breslow's job is not just feeling out Boras and the trade market, but also waiting for the right time to put the options on the table for John Henry once it's clear what the price will be of Montgomery versus, say, trading for Cease or Luzardo.

 

[chawson]

The Red Sox and Giants seem have similar dilemmas finding players who will take their money, for whatever reason. The difference is that while we need pitchers, they need hitting. There's also the obvious connection point with Andrew Bailey, who knows their system as well as anyone. Why not help each other out?

Snell really seems like he wants to stay west. The Mariners, Dodgers, and Padres don't have room in their rotations or budgets, and the Angels don't like to shell out that kind of money on pitchers. Maybe the Giants could make it work, with our help. Or maybe they want to shell out for Bellinger?

They've got some bad contracts they could move, like Robbie Ray owed 3/$73M, Michael Conforto owed 1/$18M, Taylor Rogers owed 2/$24M and Ross Stripling owed 1/$12.5M. They've also got a ton of interesting young arms, like Kyle Harrison of course, plus Keaton Winn, Carson Whisenhunt, Landen Roupp, and Tristan Beck, they could pair with one or two of those contracts. There's also the possibility of us trading them an outfielder should we sign Soler.

Something like this:

BOS gets: Conforto, Winn, Whisenhunt
SFG gets: Valdez, Yorke
or
BOS gets: Harrison, Winn, Conforto, Rogers
SFG gets: Duran, Yorke

BOS signs Soler
SFG signs Snell

That's an interesting thought. I honestly don't have any idea how close to ready they think he is (or a whole lot about him at all), and from everything I've read the assumption is he's in Worcester to start. I think if they thought he could fill that role right now they'd probably be trying to sell it to us already. I still think one more arm is needed at minimum.

I agree, though theoretically it provides some cover if they don't.

After listening to Baseball America’s Red Sox Prospects pod (I think it’s free on Spotify), trading one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel for 2 years of Cease or 3 of Luzardo (I love Luzardo) would be a MAJOR MAJOR mistake.

Totally agree with this, and I'd still add Bleis in there too. The possibility he rebounds into Top 25 prospect status is a lot more valuable than whatever we'd get for him after a year lost to injury.

 

[chrisfont9]

This team feels years away, hate the idea of paying FA until the team is right at the cusp of contention.

Keep the kids, promote from within, do more Sale-type trades is how I'd like to see them use their budget.

Subsidize Kenley & get a young player from a team that is contending.

I'm a casual Sox/MLB fan these days, so if this upsets the hardcore Sox fans who want to win now, apologies.

I'm of two minds, so I'll ask, years away from what? I think they are very close to playoff contention, they were the last two seasons before the injury menace caused the roster to cave in. But years away from a really talented team with a championship level ceiling? Maybe.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'm of two minds, so I'll ask, years away from what? I think they are very close to playoff contention, they were the last two seasons before the injury menace caused the roster to cave in. But years away from a really talented team with a championship level ceiling? Maybe.

My thought is that if you sign Montgomery you are now (2)75th percentile outcomes away from being a playoff team. All things else being equal.

Those outcomes are legit production from Giolito and Story. Giolito being a 4 WAR guy vs 2.5 and Story being a 3 WAR guy vs 1.5.

That’s not that dire of a position to be in.

 

[benhogan]

I'm of two minds, so I'll ask, years away from what? I think they are very close to playoff contention, they were the last two seasons before the injury menace caused the roster to cave in. But years away from a really talented team with a championship level ceiling? Maybe.

5th place in a brutally competitive AL East for 2yrs running doesn't have me excited to go ALL IN on a VERY good 31-year-old pitcher.

I'd expect Boras to line up 10 MLB teams to aggressively bid against each other for Jordan. If the ownership wants to pay up, great. BUT not expecting it, think they get creative (ala Sale deal) in adjusting the roster.

 

[chrisfont9]

5th place in a brutally competitive AL East for 2yrs running doesn't have me excited to go ALL IN on a VERY good 31-year-old pitcher.

I'd expect Boras to line up 10 MLB teams to aggressively bid against each other for Jordan. If the ownership wants to pay up, great. BUT not expecting it, think they get creative (ala Sale deal) in adjusting the roster.

Texas won 60 and 68 games in 2021-22. It's not about what just happened, it's what you can do next with your roster.

 

[Max Power]

5th place in a brutally competitive AL East for 2yrs running doesn't have me excited to go ALL IN on a VERY good 31-year-old pitcher.

I'd expect Boras to line up 10 MLB teams to aggressively bid against each other for Jordan. If the ownership wants to pay up, great. BUT not expecting it, think they get creative (ala Sale deal) in adjusting the roster.

It's one month from the start of Spring Training. Where are those 10 teams? Boras likes to drag the process out as long as possible, but a lot of teams move onto other plans while you wait.

 

[benhogan]

Texas won 60 and 68 games in 2021-22. It's not about what just happened, it's what you can do next with your roster.

Sounds like your mind is made up.

If you feel they are a good pitcher away from contention, then bidding for Montgomery makes complete sense (most of the Board agrees with this approach)

It's one month from the start of Spring Training. Where are those 10 teams? Boras likes to drag the process out as long as possible, but a lot of teams move onto other plans while you wait.

10 is an exaggeration, Boras doesn't need all that many bidders to extract every last shekel

 

[Fishy1]

Paying for pitchers entering their 30's almost always backfires. It's really rare for guys to avoid arm injuries AND stay effective as the years go on. Even the guys that avoid the injuries lose their stuff, or enough of it to make the contract regrettable. It does happen that occasionally a guy is effective until he's 35 and older, but that's why I'm shy about Snell and Montgomery. Both guys have been relatively healthy and workhorse-y in their careers. But I don't have much confidence that will continue. Max Scherzers are pretty rare.

I'm fine with them taking a flyer on a reclamation project or trading for that or better if the right deal presents itself. There's just too many outfielders, but I think they might wait till midway through the season to see who emerges.

I'm bullish on the rotation. I think we're going to see a leap from Crawford and Bello, returns to form for Whitlock and Houck, and Pivetta with a lot of succes with that new sweeper.

 

[grepal]

Good call

The question needs to be asked who do we project to be the best in three years. If we get a windown it likely starts in 2026. After the kids have full, solid year in the big. We have the Story money to throw at an ace, hopefully Bello and Crawford are two and three or two and four, Gonzalez or Perales are a solid 5th starter and the every day lineup is strong with Mayer, Anthony, Grissom, Teel, Casas, Devers, Duran, Cedanne Bleis, and. maybe Abreu. I do think adding a Montgomery and or Snell helps immediately but we would still need a lot to go right to win the pennant.

 

[chrisfont9]

Sounds like your mind is made up.

If you feel they are a good pitcher away from contention, then bidding for Montgomery makes complete sense (most of the Board agrees with this approach)


10 is an exaggeration, Boras doesn't need all that many bidders to extract every last shekel

I feel they are a single good pitcher away from being in the mix, but if they preferred to go slower and really load up around the kids starting in 2025, I would understand.

 

[chrisfont9]

The question needs to be asked who do we project to be the best in three years. If we get a windown it likely starts in 2026. After the kids have full, solid year in the big. We have the Story money to throw at an ace, hopefully Bello and Crawford are two and three or two and four, Gonzalez or Perales are a solid 5th starter and the every day lineup is strong with Mayer, Anthony, Grissom, Teel, Casas, Devers, Duran, Cedanne Bleis, and. maybe Abreu. I do think adding a Montgomery and or Snell helps immediately but we would still need a lot to go right to win the pennant.

If that is your preference on how they plan things, then yeah, I would NOT sign Monty or Snell, for sure.

 

[allmanbro]

I voted Montgomery, but it seems unlikely to happen, and actually seems likely I'll be happy they didn't give him whatever he gets.

In the likely event there is not an actual top of the rotation starter to be had, whatever happened to the Yariel Rodriguez chatter? Does anyone actually think he can be a starter? Reported to have nasty stuff, will be 27 but with lost/weird development time in his defection from Cuba and exit from Japan. Fangraphs predicts he gets 3/$30M, MLBTR predicts 4/$32M. At that price (maybe with bonuses for IP), he could be an interesting gamble.

 

[grepal]

If that is your preference on how they plan things, then yeah, I would NOT sign Monty or Snell, for sure.

Not my preference heading into this off season but we have whiffed on so many targets I feel our only chance this year is to spend like drunken sailors on both of the premier starters, Josh Hader and add a right handed power bat. Also we need Chapman to play third make Devers the DH and see what Yoshida and Jansen can net us. Full throttle in overdrive. So yeah, I think we better hope for the future. It stinks but the present looks bleak and one starter won't be enough.

 

[sezwho]

Paying for pitchers entering their 30's almost always backfires. It's really rare for guys to avoid arm injuries AND stay effective as the years go on. Even the guys that avoid the injuries lose their stuff, or enough of it to make the contract regrettable. It does happen that occasionally a guy is effective until he's 35 and older, but that's why I'm shy about Snell and Montgomery. Both guys have been relatively healthy and workhorse-y in their careers. But I don't have much confidence that will continue. Max Scherzers are pretty rare.

I'm fine with them taking a flyer on a reclamation project or trading for that or better if the right deal presents itself. There's just too many outfielders, but I think they might wait till midway through the season to see who emerges.

I'm bullish on the rotation. I think we're going to see a leap from Crawford and Bello, returns to form for Whitlock and Houck, and Pivetta with a lot of succes with that new sweeper.

Went trade for back of rotation starter along the same lines, but my goals maybe a bit prouder. My thought is a #2-3 with some term could potentially be available by flexing other names plus straight cash, w/o losing the top three. I want then to wash/rinse/repeat the Grissom plan for SP - aka make more ahem Richard Fitts.

If we look to FSG's Liverpool division, which why not in an information blackout, they are in on for crazy money on an Mbappe (YY analog?) but basically steer to mid-tier prices. Note - I'm even less competent discussing EPL accounting than MLB so perhaps this analogy misses something (even beyond the x-fer fee piece) but still see a parallel to their risk tolerance.