How's Boras Doing This Off-Season?

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Well, crap on a cracker was I wrong about Belinger.

I am shocked Boras misread the market this badly and didn’t get him numbers even in line with Lee, on a total dollars standpoint. I was certain he was getting $150m at the absolute minimum, and would have probably landed around $175m. It’ll be interesting to see if this was a unique situation to Belinger, or if the Snell and Monty markets collapse.

If the market truly is this low for hitters, I’ll admit I’d at least toy with the idea of something like 3/$65m for Chapman and move Devers to DH.

He‘d provide some RH balance to the lineup and would pretty drastically improve the defense. If the Sox aren’t going to bother to actually improve starting pitching, maybe that would be a more cost effective way. It’d be interesting to see which ”replacement” helps a pitching staff more - LF or 3b.

I‘m not smart enough to figure that out.

 

[TomRicardo]

Well, crap on a cracker was I wrong about Belinger.

I am shocked Boras misread the market this badly and didn’t get him numbers even in line with Lee, on a total dollars standpoint. I was certain he was getting $150m at the absolute minimum, and would have probably landed around $175m. It’ll be interesting to see if this was a unique situation to Belinger, or if the Snell and Monty markets collapse.

If the market truly is this low for hitters, I’ll admit I’d at least toy with the idea of something like 3/$65m for Chapman and move Devers to DH.

He‘d provide some RH balance to the lineup and would pretty drastically improve the defense. If the Sox aren’t going to bother to actually improve starting pitching, maybe that would be a more cost effective way. It’d be interesting to see which ”replacement” helps a pitching staff more - LF or 3b.

I‘m not smart enough to figure that out.

What suggests Boras misread the market? I don't think anyone offered Bellinger more earlier in the offseason then moved on.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How do we know Boras misread the market, though? I don’t think comparing actuals to made up projections reality tells us much. Boras only screwed up if he rejected better offers earlier, expecting more.

Problem with signing a guy like Chapman is you only get that kind of deal if he stinks- ithit will be like a 1/25 minimum, with opt outs. So, give up a pick for a guy who is gone if he has a good year, and move Devers to a spot he probably doesn’t want, and to put Yoshida back in the field? Meh.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

What suggests Boras misread the market? I don't think anyone offered Bellinger more earlier in the offseason then moved on.

Scott Boras makes markets. He doesn't misread them - check the scoreboard which is his earnings.

We have definitely crossed a divide when fansites think they have a better handle on free agent markets than the people who have real money at stake. MLBTR is a blog - not a market maker. Why should their projections carry any weight when they have no skin in the game?

Also, media reports about negotiations are typically sourced from someone with an interest in an outcome. It sucks but in the end, all we really have to judge a negotiation is the final result. The rest is just spin.

 

[HfxBob]

Scott Boras makes markets. He doesn't misread them - check the scoreboard which is his earnings.

We have definitely crossed a divide when fansites think they have a better handle on free agent markets than the people who have real money at stake. MLBTR is a blog - not a market maker. Why should their projections carry any weight when they have no skin in the game?

Also, media reports about negotiations are typically sourced from someone with an interest in an outcome. It sucks but in the end, all we really have to judge a negotiation is the final result. The rest is just spin.

Boras may be the best, but he's not exempt from miscalculations any more than anyone else who makes their living off volatile markets.

 

[moondog80]

Boras only screwed up if he turned down a deal for more money. And even then, the opt outs chance the dynamic. Would he be better off with 125/5? I'm not sure.

 

[simplicio]

I think the big wild card this winter has been determining whether the market last year was the new normal or an anomaly. The reports about Snell seeking 9/270 and Montgomery asking for more than Nola point to Boras trying to perpetuate the former; the Bellinger deal seems like a capitulation to the reality that it's more the latter.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think the big wild card this winter has been determining whether the market last year was the new normal or an anomaly. The reports about Snell seeking 9/270 and Montgomery asking for more than Nola point to Boras trying to perpetuate the former; the Bellinger deal seems like a capitulation to the reality that it's more the latter.

I think the Bellinger contract is a reflection on Bellinger. He had a terrific comeback season; but teams were likely wary that it could turn out to be a contract-year anomaly.
Outside the two unicorns, it wasn't an elite-heavy free agent market. If Soto makes it to free agency next season, he won't have to "settle" for what Bellinger got.

 

[jon abbey]

MLBTR predicted Bellinger would get $264 million. I'm guessing the delta of $184 million is a record.

Correa was predicted there for 10/320 when first leaving HOU and got 3/105.

 

[jon abbey]

Also MLBTR is not to blame for those predictions, Boras is doing a shitty job the past few winters (Bogaerts excepted).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Also MLBTR is not to blame for those predictions, Boras is doing a shitty job the past few winters (Bogaerts excepted).

He did ok with Yoshida.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

You wonder how much Bally Sports going under and the uncertainty of regional sports networks is playing a part in all this too.

 

[simplicio]

I think the Bellinger contract is a reflection on Bellinger. He had a terrific comeback season; but teams were likely wary that it could turn out to be a contract-year anomaly.
Outside the two unicorns, it wasn't an elite-heavy free agent market. If Soto makes it to free agency next season, he won't have to "settle" for what Bellinger got.

Soto's another unicorn though, guys that good hitting FA for their age 26 season is incredibly rare. The question of last winter was "30 year olds are worth $300m now?" and this winter answers No.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Also MLBTR is not to blame for those predictions, Boras is doing a shitty job the past few winters (Bogaerts excepted).

How can you say this?

We know what the media expectations are but do we know what Boras told these players to expect? Do we know the parameters the players gave him (you really need to know these to understand a players market - if Boston or NY cannot bid on them its in Boras/player's best interest to keep that quiet but it definitely affects the outcome of the negotiations)?

We aren't in the room on these deals and we have no idea what the sides actually expect. How can we call balls and strikes on this process in good faith?

 

[jon abbey]

You wonder how much Bally Sports going under and the uncertainty of regional sports networks is playing a part in all this too.

None of that was really news this winter, though.

For me the issue with hiring Boras as an agent would be that he always has conflicts of interest, right now very obviously with Snell and Montgomery. If those two players had different agents from each other, I bet at least one would be signed already.

 

[jon abbey]

How can you say this?

We know what the media expectations are but do we know what Boras told these players to expect? Do we know the parameters the players gave him (you really need to know these to understand a players market - if Boston or NY cannot bid on them its in Boras/player's best interest to keep that quiet but it definitely affects the outcome of the negotiations)?

We aren't in the room on these deals and we have no idea what the sides actually expect. How can we call balls and strikes on this process in good faith?

Well, he turned down 5/150 for Snell a few weeks ago and refused to negotiate around that number (NY might have gone a bit higher before they signed Stroman), let's see what Snell ends up getting.

But like I said in the previous post, my main issue with him as a player would be his own conflicts of interest, I think those get in the way of some players getting their best possible deals at times.

 

[Sin Duda]

...
They could be wrong. But it’s clear that’s the current thinking outside of the Dodgers.

I don't think we can properly estimate the revenue the Dodgers will accrue thanks to "owning" Japan and its 127M people, many of whom looove baseball. And the Dodgers know that they'll come out ahead even with the massive signings. I'm sure they have a way to assess this increased revenue. The Dodgers have taken the big market playbook to another level where few, if any, can follow.

 

[radsoxfan]

Also MLBTR is not to blame for those predictions, Boras is doing a shitty job the past few winters (Bogaerts excepted).

I think people are probably underestimating the value of this 1/30, 2/60, or 3/80 contract with player opt outs in between. Yes he doesn’t get the guaranteed $ and worst case he flames out and “only” gets 80M.

But it’s a super player friendly structure with a good chance at a high year 1 AAV and then hitting free agency next off season. The upside for the team is not being on the hook for an albatross but it’s also not likely to provide much surplus value.

Put another way, what is the equivalent value of this contract vs a traditional 6 year deal at X million? Depends how risk averse Bellinger is, but I’d say X is probably in the 140-150 M range.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Looking at that Bellinger deal, with hindsight, a strong argument could be made that the NYY would have been better off signing Bellinger (4.4 WAR in 2023 to Soto's 5.6), keep the pitching prospects, have better OF defense this year, and sign Soto as a free agent next year, with Bellinger moving to 1B.

Of course, with a good year, Bellinger would be a FA after this year too, and the Yankees would lose a draft pick too. Think that complicates things. Also, Soto would potentially be on a competitor and potentially never make it to FA.

 

[jon abbey]

Looking at that Bellinger deal, with hindsight, a strong argument could be made that the NYY would have been better off signing Bellinger (4.4 WAR in 2023 to Soto's 5.6), keep the pitching prospects, have better OF defense this year, and sign Soto as a free agent next year, with Bellinger moving to 1B.

Of course, with a good year, Bellinger would be a FA after this year too, and the Yankees would lose a draft pick too. Think that complicates things. Also, Soto would potentially be on a competitor and potentially never make it to FA.

Yeah, I think this is mistaken but it's fascinating as there are a lot of components, so I will answer it in depth in the Yankee forum.

 

[jon abbey]

How can you say this?

We know what the media expectations are but do we know what Boras told these players to expect? Do we know the parameters the players gave him (you really need to know these to understand a players market - if Boston or NY cannot bid on them its in Boras/player's best interest to keep that quiet but it definitely affects the outcome of the negotiations)?

We aren't in the room on these deals and we have no idea what the sides actually expect. How can we call balls and strikes on this process in good faith?

This BP writer has a comment on this:

View: https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1761766975259214250?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

 

[VORP Speed]

This BP writer has a comment on this:

View: https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1761766975259214250?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

The emperor has no clothes

 

[E5 Yaz]

Here's highlights of Boras's 2022-23 offseason / wiki

• On December 6, 2022, Josh Bell agreed to a 2-year, $33 million contract with the Cleveland Guardians with an opt-out after 2023.[201]
• On December 6, 2022, Cody Bellinger agreed to a 1-year, $17.5 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.[202]
• On December 6, 2022, Taijuan Walker agreed to a 4-year, $72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.[203]
• On December 7, 2022, Masataka Yoshida agreed to a 4-year, $90 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. Yoshida's posting fee was $15.4 million.[204]
• On December 7, 2022, Xander Bogaerts agreed to an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres.[205]
• On December 8, 2022, Brandon Nimmo agreed to an 8-year, $162 million contract with the New York Mets.[206]
• On December 11, 2022, Sean Manaea agreed to a 2-year, $25 million contract with the San Francisco Giants with an opt-out after 2023.
• On December 15, 2022, Carlos Rodón agreed to a 6-year, $162 million contract with the New York Yankees.
• On December 16, 2022, Joey Gallo agreed to a 1-year, $11 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
• On December 17, 2022, Austin Hedges agreed to a 1-year, $5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• On December 23, 2022, Michael Conforto agreed to a 2-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants with an opt-out after 2023.
• On January 10, 2023 Carlos Correa agreed to a six-year, $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Boras 22-23 looks pretty fantastic, no?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Boras 22-23 looks pretty fantastic, no?

Hell yeah. But….Right now almost across the board there’s not one player on the non-pillow contracts I’d like on the Sox out of that group.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Boras 22-23 looks pretty fantastic, no?

Was anyone arguing otherwise?

I think the noteworthy thing on the list E5 posted is the date of the last player signing. Contrast that with the fact that three of his high profile clients remain unemployed as we approach March and it certainly looks like something didn't go quite right this winter.

 

[BaseballJones]

Here's highlights of Boras's 2022-23 offseason / wiki

• On December 6, 2022, Josh Bell agreed to a 2-year, $33 million contract with the Cleveland Guardians with an opt-out after 2023.[201]
• On December 6, 2022, Cody Bellinger agreed to a 1-year, $17.5 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.[202]
• On December 6, 2022, Taijuan Walker agreed to a 4-year, $72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.[203]
• On December 7, 2022, Masataka Yoshida agreed to a 4-year, $90 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. Yoshida's posting fee was $15.4 million.[204]
• On December 7, 2022, Xander Bogaerts agreed to an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres.[205]
• On December 8, 2022, Brandon Nimmo agreed to an 8-year, $162 million contract with the New York Mets.[206]
• On December 11, 2022, Sean Manaea agreed to a 2-year, $25 million contract with the San Francisco Giants with an opt-out after 2023.
• On December 15, 2022, Carlos Rodón agreed to a 6-year, $162 million contract with the New York Yankees.
• On December 16, 2022, Joey Gallo agreed to a 1-year, $11 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
• On December 17, 2022, Austin Hedges agreed to a 1-year, $5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• On December 23, 2022, Michael Conforto agreed to a 2-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants with an opt-out after 2023.
• On January 10, 2023 Carlos Correa agreed to a six-year, $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.

Boras probably gets 5% on each contract. So those contracts add up to $1,093,500,000. Five percent of that = $54.675 million.

Nice work. Apparently his net worth these days is around $450 million.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Was anyone arguing otherwise?

I think the noteworthy thing on the list E5 posted is the date of the last player signing. Contrast that with the fact that three of his high profile clients remain unemployed as we approach March and it certainly looks like something didn't go quite right this winter.

It seems like Jarrett Seidler was, no?

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think the noteworthy thing on the list E5 posted is the date of the last player signing. Contrast that with the fact that three of his high profile clients remain unemployed as we approach March and it certainly looks like something didn't go quite right this winter.

And that was a special circumstance where Correa bounced around like the ball on a roulette wheel

 

[simplicio]

It was only a special circumstance cause Boras botched Correa's first FA deal in the first place.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It was only a special circumstance cause Boras botched Correa's first FA deal in the first place.

And the second? Because he wound up with the third.

 

[simplicio]

And the second? Because he wound up with the third.

No, his first Twins deal in 2022. Boras got Seager, a year older and coming off an injured/worse year, 10/325 at the end of November 2021. Then he played his cute waiting game with Correa and ended up with a Bellinger-style pillow contract at the end of February '22.

 

[E5 Yaz]

No, his first Twins deal in 2022. Boras got Seager, a year older and coming off an injured/worse year, 10/325 at the end of November 2021. Then he played his cute waiting game with Correa and ended up with a Bellinger-style pillow contract at the end of February '22.

But that's not the Correa deal we were discussing, and I'm not one for talking in circles

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

No, his first Twins deal in 2022. Boras got Seager, a year older and coming off an injured/worse year, 10/325 at the end of November 2021. Then he played his cute waiting game with Correa and ended up with a Bellinger-style pillow contract at the end of February '22.

And then got him 13/350 from the Giants, which didn’t work out because of injury concerns which long predate him being a free agent. Or course he still got potentially $270M from the Twins, which added to the cute pillow deal is over $300. Not terrible.

 

[RS2004foreever]

For the record I thought the SS deals signed in '23 were absurd (Turner, Bogarts, Correa, Swanson).\
Snell is a unique case. There have been only 12 other pitchers IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL who have won 2 or more Cy Young awards. The only ones on that list who will not be in the HOF are Clemens for Steriods and Lincecum. So I can see why he would expect $200 plus after the SS contracts from '23.

1. Randy Johnson - 5 times (AL: 1995, 1999, 2000; NL: 2001, 2002)
2. Roger Clemens - 7 times (AL: 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997; NL: 2001, 2004, 2004)
3. Steve Carlton - 4 times (NL: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982)
4. Greg Maddux - 4 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
5. Sandy Koufax - 3 times (NL: 1963, 1965, 1966)
6. Clayton Kershaw - 3 times (NL: 2011, 2013, 2014)
7. Tom Seaver - 3 times (NL: 1969, 1973, 1975)
8. Pedro Martinez - 3 times (AL: 1997, 1999, 2000)
9. Jim Palmer - 3 times (AL: 1973, 1975, 1976)
10. Greg Maddux - 3 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994)
11. Max Scherzer - 3 times (AL: 2013; NL: 2016, 2017)
12. Tim Lincecum - 2 times (NL: 2008, 2009)

 

[jon abbey]

For the record I thought the SS deals signed in '23 were absurd (Turner, Bogarts, Correa, Swanson).\
Snell is a unique case. There have been only 12 other pitchers IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL who have won 2 or more Cy Young awards. The only ones on that list who will not be in the HOF are Clemens for Steriods and Lincecum. So I can see why he would expect $200 plus after the SS contracts from '23.

1. Randy Johnson - 5 times (AL: 1995, 1999, 2000; NL: 2001, 2002)
2. Roger Clemens - 7 times (AL: 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997; NL: 2001, 2004, 2004)
3. Steve Carlton - 4 times (NL: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982)
4. Greg Maddux - 4 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
5. Sandy Koufax - 3 times (NL: 1963, 1965, 1966)
6. Clayton Kershaw - 3 times (NL: 2011, 2013, 2014)
7. Tom Seaver - 3 times (NL: 1969, 1973, 1975)
8. Pedro Martinez - 3 times (AL: 1997, 1999, 2000)
9. Jim Palmer - 3 times (AL: 1973, 1975, 1976)
10. Greg Maddux - 3 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994)
11. Max Scherzer - 3 times (AL: 2013; NL: 2016, 2017)
12. Tim Lincecum - 2 times (NL: 2008, 2009)

The issue is the four seasons Snell had between his two Cy Youngs, just 413 innings of 3.85 ERA and a total bWAR of 5.9, less in those four seasons combined than in either 2018 or 2023 (his two Cy Young seasons).

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Let me know if I missed any posts that should be in here.

 

[jon abbey]

Thanks for doing that, Abs, I missed some of these posts earlier.

What suggests Boras misread the market? I don't think anyone offered Bellinger more earlier in the offseason then moved on.

Ohtani chose the Dodgers on Dec 11, Toronto was quite obviously one of the runners-up there (we all remember the flight tracking).

Right after that, there was quite a bit of buzz about Bellinger to TOR, but Boras was clearly holding out for more (see the below article) and TOR moved on, signing Kiermaier, IKF (heh) and Turner. The first of those signings was Dec 28, I am as certain as I can be without being actually involved in the negotiations that TOR offered Bellinger more than 3/80 in that 17 day period between Ohtani and Kiermaier, Boras thought it was too low and TOR moved on.

Here is one of many articles from that period, this one on Dec 14 from Boras mouthpiece Heyman:

"The Blue Jays are expected to be a player for star outfielder Cody Bellinger now that they’ve lost out for Shohei Ohtani (and missed their opportunity for Juan Soto).

They seek a left-handed hitter, and options are limited.

The Cubs remain a threat to keep Bellinger, who’s said to have liked his first year on the North Side very much.

Bellinger seeks $200M plus."

https://nypost.com/2023/12/14/sports/blue-jays-predicted-to-pivot-to-cody-bellinger-after-ohtani-whiff/

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This BP writer has a comment on this:

View: https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1761766975259214250?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

The writer, who works for BP and has just under 1k followers, has a opinion like all of ours here at SoSH. I am not sure working at BP makes this person any more qualified to discuss contracts than us but maybe. They aren't likely to be privy to negotiations etc

Boras remaining holdouts may well be sweating but we can't just assume that. They can sign short term deals and try again next year maybe because they game planned this scenario out in advance with Boras - something that would not be a surprise given his attention to detail. And I don't rule out that he may end up costing them money but we simply cannot say that now.

I don't love Scott Boras - I can't even say I like him. But its out loud laughable that we are sitting here in our collective mom's basement essentially trying to say that one of the greatest sports agents ever - who will get paid no matter what his clients do and he has made a lot of them a lot of money too - is screwing up when we have no relevant details except a calendar.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

For the record I thought the SS deals signed in '23 were absurd (Turner, Bogarts, Correa, Swanson).\
Snell is a unique case. There have been only 12 other pitchers IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL who have won 2 or more Cy Young awards. The only ones on that list who will not be in the HOF are Clemens for Steriods and Lincecum. So I can see why he would expect $200 plus after the SS contracts from '23.

1. Randy Johnson - 5 times (AL: 1995, 1999, 2000; NL: 2001, 2002)
2. Roger Clemens - 7 times (AL: 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997; NL: 2001, 2004, 2004)
3. Steve Carlton - 4 times (NL: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982)
4. Greg Maddux - 4 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
5. Sandy Koufax - 3 times (NL: 1963, 1965, 1966)
6. Clayton Kershaw - 3 times (NL: 2011, 2013, 2014)
7. Tom Seaver - 3 times (NL: 1969, 1973, 1975)
8. Pedro Martinez - 3 times (AL: 1997, 1999, 2000)
9. Jim Palmer - 3 times (AL: 1973, 1975, 1976)
10. Greg Maddux - 3 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994)
11. Max Scherzer - 3 times (AL: 2013; NL: 2016, 2017)
12. Tim Lincecum - 2 times (NL: 2008, 2009)

Missed Gaylord Perry

 

[cannonball 1729]

For the record I thought the SS deals signed in '23 were absurd (Turner, Bogarts, Correa, Swanson).\
Snell is a unique case. There have been only 12 other pitchers IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL who have won 2 or more Cy Young awards. The only ones on that list who will not be in the HOF are Clemens for Steriods and Lincecum. So I can see why he would expect $200 plus after the SS contracts from '23.

1. Randy Johnson - 5 times (AL: 1995, 1999, 2000; NL: 2001, 2002)
2. Roger Clemens - 7 times (AL: 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997; NL: 2001, 2004, 2004)
3. Steve Carlton - 4 times (NL: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982)
4. Greg Maddux - 4 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
5. Sandy Koufax - 3 times (NL: 1963, 1965, 1966)
6. Clayton Kershaw - 3 times (NL: 2011, 2013, 2014)
7. Tom Seaver - 3 times (NL: 1969, 1973, 1975)
8. Pedro Martinez - 3 times (AL: 1997, 1999, 2000)
9. Jim Palmer - 3 times (AL: 1973, 1975, 1976)
10. Greg Maddux - 3 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994)
11. Max Scherzer - 3 times (AL: 2013; NL: 2016, 2017)
12. Tim Lincecum - 2 times (NL: 2008, 2009)

Missed Gaylord Perry

Also Denny McLain, Bob Gibson, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Kluber.

 

[chrisfont9]

The writer, who works for BP and has just under 1k followers, has a opinion like all of ours here at SoSH. I am not sure working at BP makes this person any more qualified to discuss contracts than us but maybe. They aren't likely to be privy to negotiations etc

Boras remaining holdouts may well be sweating but we can't just assume that. They can sign short term deals and try again next year maybe because they game planned this scenario out in advance with Boras - something that would not be a surprise given his attention to detail. And I don't rule out that he may end up costing them money but we simply cannot say that now.

I don't love Scott Boras - I can't even say I like him. But its out loud laughable that we are sitting here in our collective mom's basement essentially trying to say that one of the greatest sports agents ever - who will get paid no matter what his clients do and he has made a lot of them a lot of money too - is screwing up when we have no relevant details except a calendar.

I just don't buy the myth like you do. He is certainly good at recruiting clients, so if that's what makes for a great agent, chapeau. Certainly he's done a fine job of branding his name. He's had a long career with many big contracts (quite a lot of which the teams ended up regretting) and obviously he knows what he's doing. But plenty of other agents do too, and right now the only unique aspect of Boras is this holdout shit, which doesn't exactly seem like a win for his clients. Also literally every attorney is supposed to pay attention to detail, that's like 50% of the job. I'm sure Joel Wolfe or the other high-flying agents in MLB know all the details of their clients' situation. People talk about Boras like he's a magician. His clients are the magicians. He's a perfectly good mouthpiece for them but that's it.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

For the record I thought the SS deals signed in '23 were absurd (Turner, Bogarts, Correa, Swanson).\
Snell is a unique case. There have been only 12 other pitchers IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL who have won 2 or more Cy Young awards. The only ones on that list who will not be in the HOF are Clemens for Steriods and Lincecum. So I can see why he would expect $200 plus after the SS contracts from '23.

1. Randy Johnson - 5 times (AL: 1995, 1999, 2000; NL: 2001, 2002)
2. Roger Clemens - 7 times (AL: 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997; NL: 2001, 2004, 2004)
3. Steve Carlton - 4 times (NL: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982)
4. Greg Maddux - 4 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
5. Sandy Koufax - 3 times (NL: 1963, 1965, 1966)
6. Clayton Kershaw - 3 times (NL: 2011, 2013, 2014)
7. Tom Seaver - 3 times (NL: 1969, 1973, 1975)
8. Pedro Martinez - 3 times (AL: 1997, 1999, 2000)
9. Jim Palmer - 3 times (AL: 1973, 1975, 1976)
10. Greg Maddux - 3 times (NL: 1992, 1993, 1994)
11. Max Scherzer - 3 times (AL: 2013; NL: 2016, 2017)
12. Tim Lincecum - 2 times (NL: 2008, 2009)

While two Cy Young awards is impressive, it’s not something I’d hang a ton of valuation on for a pitcher with a spotty track record, and questionable peripherals. I think in Snell’s case, there’s some luck and variance involved that puts him in very select company.

It’s almost like a double edged sword. The guys you posted have won 43 of the last 120 CYAs. It’s rare to win it twice, but the frequency of guys like Pedro, Clemens, and Maddux winning kind of make it rarer for, I dunno, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, or Dwight Gooden to have a shot at the same feat. That sort of rarity by exclusion doesn’t make Snell a better, or more prestigious pitcher. It just kind of feels like makes him lucky.

He’s far more like Rick Porcello (1 CYA), than he is Max Scherzer (3 CYA). At least in terms of value.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

No, his first Twins deal in 2022. Boras got Seager, a year older and coming off an injured/worse year, 10/325 at the end of November 2021. Then he played his cute waiting game with Correa and ended up with a Bellinger-style pillow contract at the end of February '22.

The "waiting game" was primarily the lock-out rather than Boras trying to get cute. As we saw last winter, there were also some extenuating health circumstances for Correa. I think at best, the Correa stuff might need an asterisk in the overall discussion of Boras' strategies.

 

[TomRicardo]

Right after that, there was quite a bit of buzz about Bellinger to TOR, but Boras was clearly holding out for more (see the below article) and TOR moved on, signing Kiermaier, IKF (heh) and Turner. The first of those signings was Dec 28, I am as certain as I can be without being actually involved in the negotiations that TOR offered Bellinger more than 3/80 in that 17 day period between Ohtani and Kiermaier, Boras thought it was too low and TOR moved on.

Here is one of many articles from that period, this one on Dec 14 from Boras mouthpiece Heyman:

"The Blue Jays are expected to be a player for star outfielder Cody Bellinger now that they’ve lost out for Shohei Ohtani (and missed their opportunity for Juan Soto).

Why? I am honestly asking the question. How much was it? If it was 125/5 for instance, I would say the Cubs contract is better because I believe he is capable of having another good season over the next two years and enter a market where every team hasn't thrown their hands up in the air with Dodgers spending over a billion or so. 80/3 with player options every year is pretty good. Maybe not 200/8 good but better than 125/5 for an under 30 OF.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Also Denny McLain, Bob Gibson, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Kluber.

And Johan Santana.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Why? I am honestly asking the question. How much was it? If it was 125/5 for instance, I would say the Cubs contract is better because I believe he is capable of having another good season over the next two years and enter a market where every team hasn't thrown their hands up in the air with Dodgers spending over a billion or so. 80/3 with player options every year is pretty good. Maybe not 200/8 good but better than 125/5 for an under 30 OF.

Interesting perspective. It's tough when you have no idea what the player actually prefers (ie the massive AAV on the Cubs deal and ability to try again; the insane generational wealth of something like the $130m that Lee got on his deal with SF - I think only like $113m is guaranteed, though I'm not entirely certain on the exact structure of Lee's deal, but assume Bellinger would have gotten more than Lee).


FWIW, I didn't actually start a new thread with the mindset that Boras was wrong; it's not like I know that or pretend to. It was moved out. My post was mostly an "I was wrong" because I was all but certain that Snell and CB would each get ~ $175m; and Monty around ~$150m.

The Snell portion mostly based on Boras turning down the deal mentioned as being on the table for the Yankees and similarly thinking he turned down something higher than Lee got for Bellinger (I mean, if I were SF, I'd far rather have Bellinger at something like 5/$150m than Lee at 6/$113m or whatever the actual number is - so I'm going lower since I've seen both $113m mentioned and $132m mentioned).

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I just don't buy the myth like you do. He is certainly good at recruiting clients, so if that's what makes for a great agent, chapeau. Certainly he's done a fine job of branding his name. He's had a long career with many big contracts (quite a lot of which the teams ended up regretting) and obviously he knows what he's doing. But plenty of other agents do too, and right now the only unique aspect of Boras is this holdout shit, which doesn't exactly seem like a win for his clients. Also literally every attorney is supposed to pay attention to detail, that's like 50% of the job. I'm sure Joel Wolfe or the other high-flying agents in MLB know all the details of their clients' situation. People talk about Boras like he's a magician. His clients are the magicians. He's a perfectly good mouthpiece for them but that's it.

Two things - first as a matter of posting, we can disagree without you trying to get a shot in. I can assure you that I buy no myths about anyone - again, I don't carry a picture of Boras in my wallet and he isn't my avatar on any of the socials.

Next, maybe Boras is all hype and his results aren't sustainable. In this particular instance my only argument is that we have very little information about any of these negotiations yet we feel qualified to characterize how they are going - that's just silly.

Forget MLBTR, do we know what Montgomery and Boras actually targeted in terms of acceptable dollars or years? Not what the media reports are saying they are asking for - but their actual walk-away price? Because if they sign for that or better they may deem this off-season a rousing success while we sit here and laugh. Yet they will still get paid and be happy.

Sometimes we have to admit we don't really have enough information - this feels like one of those times.

 

[chrisfont9]

Two things - first as a matter of posting, we can disagree without you trying to get a shot in. I can assure you that I buy no myths about anyone - again, I don't carry a picture of Boras in my wallet and he isn't my avatar on any of the socials.

Next, maybe Boras is all hype and his results aren't sustainable. In this particular instance my only argument is that we have very little information about any of these negotiations yet we feel qualified to characterize how they are going - that's just silly.

Forget MLBTR, do we know what Montgomery and Boras actually targeted in terms of acceptable dollars or years? Not what the media reports are saying they are asking for - but their actual walk-away price? Because if they sign for that or better they may deem this off-season a rousing success while we sit here and laugh. Yet they will still get paid and be happy.

Sometimes we have to admit we don't really have enough information - this feels like one of those times.

All fair, and perfectly reasonable. My shot about myths is aimed at what I do think is a mythological level of reverence around the guy, but I don’t attribute that to you. The media LOVES a Powerful Agent Scott Boras story. Agents aren’t that powerful, if they don’t listen to their clients they get fired.

 

[cannonball 1729]

I just don't buy the myth like you do. He is certainly good at recruiting clients, so if that's what makes for a great agent, chapeau. Certainly he's done a fine job of branding his name. He's had a long career with many big contracts (quite a lot of which the teams ended up regretting) and obviously he knows what he's doing. But plenty of other agents do too, and right now the only unique aspect of Boras is this holdout shit, which doesn't exactly seem like a win for his clients. Also literally every attorney is supposed to pay attention to detail, that's like 50% of the job. I'm sure Joel Wolfe or the other high-flying agents in MLB know all the details of their clients' situation. People talk about Boras like he's a magician. His clients are the magicians. He's a perfectly good mouthpiece for them but that's it.

It's tricky to evaluate, because there's no counterfactual of what the players would have gotten had he not done his agenting. But there are quite a few things that Boras seems to do extremely well, like...

....actually, I wrote an article about exactly this for the old SoSH.com. That site appears to have gone the way of the dodo, but let me see if I can pull it out of my Google drive and post it here.