Pandemonium67 said:
I agree completely with the larger point -- the Colts will get crushed if they make it to Foxboro in January (barring a Pats injury epidimic) -- but not with this detail. The Pats three consecutive three-and-outs left the Colts an open window. That last TD wasn't garbage time. It made it a one-score game, and if the Colts recovered the onside kick sphincters would have slammed shut all over New England.
The Colts were a recovery away from having a decent chance to pull off an epic stunner. The moral of the story is I wish BB would scrap both the prevent defense and the conservative off-tackle runs and go for the fucking jugular.
So I hate going conservative with the lead too early, but I dont really think there was a problem with that here.
They got the ball back up two scores with 11:24 to go and ran the ball on first down, a reasonable choice and it got 8 yards.
They ran it on 2nd and 2, came up just short (looked like a bad spot, but OK), but given down and distance seems fine
They ran it on 3rd and 1. Brady didnt get there on a sneak which doesnt happen very often
So three runs, but not really overly conservative given the 8 yard gain on first down
Next drive with 6:30 to go
First down run, a little conservative but running on first down is fine
Now on 2nd and long they try to throw and its incomplete
3rd and long they try to throw and Brady gets sacked
So they didnt turtle this drive or anything, just didnt execute
Next drive with 3:30 left. They do run the ball three times in a row, including on long yardage situations after the delay of game/TO mess, but I think its reasonable to do so up two scores. Running three times makes it really likely that, at minimum, the Colts are going to need to recover an onside kick to win the game.
So I dont really think that's overly conservative play calling up 13. Its more conservative than the Pats usually are, but given the situation and the matchup (running the ball on first down wasnt a nearly automatic 2nd and 9 like against the Jets or someone in that spot) I would have called it exactly the same way. Maybe ran a play action pass on first down on the second drive, but that seems like its sort of quibbling.
My issues with game management were that 1) I thought they were a little conservative with the clock to end the first half in a game they were trailing (I understand the logic behind managing the clock the way they did, make sure you get the ball last when you are getting the ball out of the half, but still seemed a little conservative. At least the sideline used the last TO at 15 seconds rather than try to spike it like Brady wanted to, which would have been shades of the '13 AFC title game bad) and 2) not running the play clock down more on the two punts in the fourth quarter, which cost them an aggregate 30 seconds that would have proved meaningful if the Colts recovered the onside.