Is NY Going To Blow Up This Draft?

[jon abbey]

So I will very likely lock this thread in a few days after it doesn't happen, but every year writers suggest that it would make sense for a team to do this (draft many HS kids asking for big bonuses or they'll go to college, pay them all, spend $30M plus as opposed to the $5.3M NY is allotted this year, and lose two future first round picks) and no one ever has, understandably.

I am starting this thread because it was suggested coming into this one that NY might be the most likely to try this in this draft, and their 1st pick of Lombard Jr. over the almost universally connected Stafura points in this direction, they only have $5.3M allowed and Lombard will probably need about $4M of that to not go to Vanderbilt.

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1672293605489164292


https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/37901894/how-new-york-yankees-mets-change-mlb-draft

NY does not even have a second round pick because of the Rodon signing, their next picks are 97 and 129. I think the guys to keep an eye on are Stafura and Thomas White, if they are taken then this is probably not happening.

 

[simplicio]

How many big ask kids will still be there at 97 and 129?

 

[jon abbey]

How many big ask kids will still be there at 97 and 129?

They took Jack Leiter at #615 overall in 2019, knowing they would almost definitely not sign him as he was going to college. He went #2 overall in 2021.

I am going to read more about this now, I am about at the limit of my knowledge on this topic with what I've posted here already. Anyone who understands the idea better, please post!

 

[jon abbey]

Here is an unpaywalled article on this from Passan from 2019:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26866071/anarchy-ingenuity-lot-gain-how-one-team-blow-mlb-draft

 

[jon abbey]

From that article:

"The worst-case scenario is you get caught in the middle ground, which is a very likely scenario," an NL GM said. "Guys don't get to your picks. You think you've got these guys lined up. They get picked. Then you're scrambling. That middle ground is a terrible outcome and it's too likely to chance.""

 

[jon abbey]

Thomas White goes at #35.

 

[jon abbey]

Also from the Passan piece (again, 2019):

"The perfect team this season would be the Boston Red Sox, who have a bad farm system, a great core and lots of money. Their bonus pool is an MLB-low $4,788,100. Say they convinced seven players to execute the plan and guaranteed them $50 million total. Their total outlay on those players alone would be closer to $96 million because of penalties.

It's still totally worth it. Seriously. Every executive surveyed said that the value of young players compared to what they get guaranteed in the draft is the single biggest bargain in baseball. If one of the seven players turns into a star, he is worth more than $96 million. If two of them grow into above-average major leaguers, they are worth more than $96 million. And that's to say nothing of their trade value."

 

[jon abbey]

Stafura goes at #43, so looking even more unlikely (I think?).

 

[StuckOnYouk]

So one pick is going to eat 80% of their total pool?
Although I guess considering they don’t have much after their first pick it may be worth it…

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

Also from the Passan piece (again, 2019):

"The perfect team this season would be the Boston Red Sox, who have a bad farm system, a great core and lots of money. Their bonus pool is an MLB-low $4,788,100. Say they convinced seven players to execute the plan and guaranteed them $50 million total. Their total outlay on those players alone would be closer to $96 million because of penalties.

It's still totally worth it. Seriously. Every executive surveyed said that the value of young players compared to what they get guaranteed in the draft is the single biggest bargain in baseball. If one of the seven players turns into a star, he is worth more than $96 million. If two of them grow into above-average major leaguers, they are worth more than $96 million. And that's to say nothing of their trade value."

So, in hindsight, would this have been worth it? They wouldn’t have been able to draft Mayer, arguably the top prospect in the ‘21 draft, if I understood correctly. I guess it’s unknowable since we don’t know who they would have ended up drafting and signing between ‘19 and ‘21 if they had followed the Passan Plan.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

You would think that any team recognizing what the Yankees are doing during the mid-to-late rounds would start blocking them from obtaining players. E.g. if next year's potential #1 is available at pick 500, the red sox take him with no intention of signing him.

 

[Fishercat]

You would think that any team recognizing what the Yankees are doing during the mid-to-late rounds would start blocking them from obtaining players. E.g. if next year's potential #1 is available at pick 500, the red sox take him with no intention of signing him.

I think that's probably the bigger consideration. Given the super low hit rates on picks, I imagine if any division rival caught on that a team was going to do this, they'd just push all their preferred high upside guys up the board and deplete that right quick with no intention to sign. With that said, I'd also think the Yankees would do most of their damage early so the like...12th round picks might be a moot point either way.

One other consideration is probably surrounding if the MLB would look at that and do something more punitive than the established penalty, or try to. Like, it wouldn't be the first time a team intentionally goes over budget and incurs a notable financial penalty for it (Sox and Moncada stand out), but with the Red Sox and Braves penalties for international bonus bundling, I'm unsure how willing teams would be to really push the envelope like is being suggested. I don't honestly know if it would stick given the penalty for this is in writing but I imagine if a team outright blows up the concept to a huge degree that the MLB wouldn't be shy about imposing more than a financial and picks penalty for it if they deemed it palpably unfair.

 

[JimD]

Also from the Passan piece (again, 2019):

"The perfect team this season would be the Boston Red Sox, who have a bad farm system, a great core and lots of money. Their bonus pool is an MLB-low $4,788,100. Say they convinced seven players to execute the plan and guaranteed them $50 million total. Their total outlay on those players alone would be closer to $96 million because of penalties.

It's still totally worth it. Seriously. Every executive surveyed said that the value of young players compared to what they get guaranteed in the draft is the single biggest bargain in baseball. If one of the seven players turns into a star, he is worth more than $96 million. If two of them grow into above-average major leaguers, they are worth more than $96 million. And that's to say nothing of their trade value."

Isn't the obvious answer here, yeah, it's a good deal if you can get one or two stars for $96 million, but it's a far better deal if you can get even one for an outlay of only $4.7 million (or whatever the equivalent amounts are in any given draft year)?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Isn't the obvious answer here, yeah, it's a good deal if you can get one or two stars for $96 million, but it's a far better deal if you can get even one for an outlay of only $4.7 million (or whatever the equivalent amounts are in any given draft year)?

It's an interesting theory. If a team can draft 7 high bonus kids and get 3 stars out them (sort of like Theo and the Mookie draft) plus the team is good enough that the future picks are likely at the end of the 1st round, it's well worth the lost 1st round picks.

It's a calculated gamble.

And just because a team drafts all of these overslot guys, it doesn't mean they have to sign them either. They can draft guys and if they don't think they have enough volume to make it worth the while, they can pivot and just not sign them.

Teams are generally risk-adverse though so I doubt we'll see any team do this.

 

[Fishercat]

Just as a thought experiment, I went back to the 2013 draft to see what the reality and dollars were like

The reality is that the Yankees did well in this draft just by taking Aaron Judge in R1. However, they had several other hits much later in the draft - Caleb Smith, Cal Quantrill, and Nestor Cortes all hit the majors at one point (they didn't sign Quantrill) and contributed positive WA. Looking through the draft for unsigned players and bonus heavy guys), there were the following - 2+ War unless it was an oddly high bonus guy for slot:

Cody Bellinger: R4, signed for 700k (second most in R4, comparable to R2/R3 value), 20 WAR in career.
Luis Guillorme - R10 signed for 400k (fourth most in R4), 3 WAR
Eric Lauer - R17 not signed, 3.8 WAR
Ryan Yarbough - R20 not signed ,2.8 WAR
Tyler Alexander - R23, not signed, 3.2 WAR
Cal Quantrill - R26, not signed (by the Yankees...), 5.8 WAR
Cavan Biggio - R29, not signed, 5.7 WAR
Rowdy Tellez - R30, signed with an 850k bonus (much more than I usually saw in these rounds), 1.1 WAR
Andrew Benintendi, R31, not signed - 16.7 WAR
Dane Dunnings - R34, not signed, 3.9 WAR
Dakota Hudson - R36, not signed, 3.6 WAR
Connor Borgdon - R40, not signed, 2.4 WAR

What I'm taking away from this is that the talent exists, but most terms do prioritize locking in their early picks and not letting them go, and finding those deep late round talents. Anecdotally, I think Benintendi was one of the best HS prospects in this draft and was just a clear no-sign for teams. That's who you go for there of course if possible but Benin. It's certainly better than what the Yankees did with their first rounders the next couple years, but even that modest return means you probably need to sign Bellinger, Biggio, or Benintendi to really make it worthwhile in this example. It's an interesting thought experiment.

For the Yankees, their 1st rounders since 2010 include Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, and Spencer Jones...but also includes Eric Jagelo, Anthony Segler, and Cito Culver, so it's really a game of chance. I think they really have to believe in multiple hard signs late in the draft to really justify the move. I don't know how many teams feel so good about that read to go whole hog on the strategy enough to sacrifice those high picks in following years..

 

[DeadlySplitter]

If any team will do it this year it's the Mariners:

 

[jon abbey]

I don't understand this all very well, but SEA doesn't need to do this as they are allotted a ton of spending money because of all of their high picks. NY made the most sense to do it this year because they lost 2nd and 5th round picks from signing Rodon plus their initial pick was #26 (so less money allotted than the first 25 picks).

Anyway, it looks like they're not doing it, as they have taken a JuCo and a college player today, so I will probably lock this later once I'm certain.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, this isn't happening.