Jackie Bradley, Jr. - Help
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Al Zarilla said:
Can't remember which beat guy it was, but one of them tweeted the other day about JBJ throwing a ball from the third base line over the RF fence and on to Eutaw St while the team was in Baltimore. Clearly, his arm is no joke.
I heard that one too, on NESN from Big Papi himself. He said Bradley told him he could throw a ball over the RF wall (I thought he said from home plate, could be wrong). Papi said no way, then he did it.Red(s)HawksFan said:
People. People. Can we stop with the stuff about misreading the ball? Major-league outfielders -- the good ones -- read swings first: that's how they get great jumps. They react to the ball in the air. If you watch the swing, it reads like a jam shot, as it especially must have looked to him almost 250 feet away. Note then that he took the only route to the ball -- once he read it in the air -- that allowed him to catch it. This is a way of saying: he played that ball the way he was taught, and the way he practices. It might look mistake-filled to us, but there's a lot less mistake in that play than people think.
Al Zarilla said:
That kind of shenanigans cost Duke Snyder. F'n Zim in the middle of it.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=860&dat=19580424&id=cphaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=fEsDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4653,4134094
Toe Nash said:
That ball carried something fierce. Off the bat, it looked like the threat was that it would fall in front of Bradley for a bloop. If Bradley has that initial reaction, you can bet just about anyone would have. He made a great recovery to get to that ball and to make that throw.
Here's to hoping the kid can get his OPS up to at least somewhere in the .700 range. He's an extraordinary defender.
Edit - Somewhere beat me to the first bit.
JE made a great catch at the wall in Seattle last night and left the game with a bruised hip. As for other guys with great OF arms, I suggest a look at Brett Gardner.LuckyBen said:
I think that may have been a longer throw, and maybe even stronger, than the Cespedes throw from the other night. JBJ was at about the 380 mark and threw it to within 5 feet of first base. Cespedes was about at the 300 mark and threw a strike to home. I wish I still had Adobe Premiere so I could calculate it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1P3br_geYFI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1P3br_geYFI
Ellsbury, Crisp and Damon could all make that throw from the same spot. The combined distances of those 3 throws in the air most likely isn't as far as JBJ's throw.
absintheofmalaise said:
Google Earth says about 320 feet from where he caught it (in front of the 1866 portion of the FW Webb sign) to the first base bag.
Anybody know where I can easily acquire pitch-by-pitch data for JBJ? I'm curious about his patience. When he puts the ball in play on the first pitch, he's hitting 364/375/500 (875 OPS) (note that includes 1 HBP). He does that about 10% of the time. The other 90% is split pretty evenly between a first pitch ball and a first pitch strike (looking/swinging/foul, with about 75% of those looking). The only time he's a better hitter is when he gets into a 2-0 count (1050 OPS, 36 PA). As good as he is in that situation, he's even worse after 1-2, and that's happening a lot more often (301 OPS, 68 PA). As far as I can tell, he's not getting more aggressive. He's taken basically the same approach all season.
Excellent. In defense of Ellsbury, though, whenever that point was made about how outfielders play, people weren't buying it for long, and went right back to knocking him when he started in first on a ball over his head. Let's see how it plays out with JBJ. Because no Boras with JBJ?someoneanywhere said:
Have you tried on baseballsavant.com yet? You can search the pitch f/x db using pretty much any criteria that you want.kieckeredinthehead said:
Maybe we can pick up Quintin Berry, after last nights meltdown, to give us some OF depth at the AAA level? Not sure why we didn't offer him a minor league deal in the off season.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-orioles-minor-leaguer-quintin-berry-runs-bases-slides-into-home-after-ejection-20140613,0,2258329.story?track=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-orioles-minor-leaguer-quintin-berry-runs-bases-slides-into-home-after-ejection-20140613,0,2258329.story?track=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Longest baseball throw: Glen Gorbous (Canada) threw a baseball 445 ft. 10 inches on August 1, 195t while playing for for Omaha (he did play in the majors). Here is an article on the history of the longest throw record beginning back in 1858:
http://prestonjg.wordpress.com/2009/12/04/the-history-of-the-record-for-baseballs-longest-thrown-a-tale-that-involves-john-hatfield-honus-wagner-sheldon-lejeune-don-grate-rocky-colavito-and-glen-gorbous-among-others/
http://prestonjg.wordpress.com/2009/12/04/the-history-of-the-record-for-baseballs-longest-thrown-a-tale-that-involves-john-hatfield-honus-wagner-sheldon-lejeune-don-grate-rocky-colavito-and-glen-gorbous-among-others/
The problem with Ellsbury, if I recall correctly, was that he would take the wrong route to the ball but he was often able to make up for that with his speed. Bradley seems to take almost perfect routes once he adjusts to the flight of the ball.
Did Lynn have a cannon arm? I don't know. Jimmy Piersall did, but then, another case of a guy hurting himself in a stunt: In 1954, he was moved to centerfield and was selected to the All-Star team. Despite injuring his arm irreparably that season during a throwing contest against Willie Mays, Piersall became a top fielder who made up for his lack of outstanding speed with exceptional anticipation.MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
http://espn.go.com/classic/biography/s/Piersall_Jim.html
Googling around, I think I found a Stengelese I'd never heard: ""I thought Joe DiMaggio was the greatest defensive outfielder I ever saw," said Stengel, who managed DiMaggio from 1949-51. "But I have to rate Piersall better."
I don't know either. I was six by the time he left the sox. I just can't think of anyone in between and i know he was considered a great fielder.Al Zarilla said:
Ellis Burks? I don't remember him being a thrower.
Evans threw bullets - used to be a prerequisite for playing right in Fenway.
BannedbyNYYFans.com said:
He needed it - my memories have him planted in the shadow of the CF wall. Paul Blair he wasn't...
(to be fair, Armas did lead the league in HRs in 1984 with 43. To be completely fair, he also led the league in Ks that year, and slumped to 11 HRs two years later. Blair wasn't really considered a slugger, but he matched/exceeded 11 HRs four times, and hit 10 twice more)
/hijack
It also seemed like Ellsbury's speed would allow him to eventually get to the right place and he'd fail to catch the damn ball... particularly near the wall.glennhoffmania said:
I can't think of any Red Sox center fielder with an arm like JBJ. My brother says Reggie Smith, but that was slightly before my time.MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
The arm is good and all, but how many chances does a CF get an opportunity to throw someone out? I was trying to look it up, and I couldn't find any data to support any of my thoughts, but isn't get all excited about his arm like getting excited about Adam Dunn and his HRs? Bradley has 6 putouts in 61 games, so lets say he plays 150 gsmes, you are talking about 15 putouts on the season. Dunn in 2012/2013 averaged 37.5 homers, with roughly the same average Bradley has produced. Every one of those homers resulted in at least one run. And this is were my lack of found data I'm coming up short, but how many runs do those 15 putouts save? Certainly not 37.5.
As everyone has said, his arm is not that of Damon or Ells, but wouldn't every person on this board take either one of them and their noodle arms over Bradley? I am not questioning his arm, it is one of the best in baseball, but it almost feels like the discussion has turned to his arm because we have nothing else good to say about him at this point in time
As everyone has said, his arm is not that of Damon or Ells, but wouldn't every person on this board take either one of them and their noodle arms over Bradley? I am not questioning his arm, it is one of the best in baseball, but it almost feels like the discussion has turned to his arm because we have nothing else good to say about him at this point in time
Too early to dismiss JBJ's bat, but the noodle arm's of the past led to unabated 1st to 3rd advances and does anyone have a tally of the noodle arm gun outs at the plate?The Mort Report said:
MuzzyField said:
And that is were my lack of data comes into play. There also is no measure(I believe) for an OFers arm stopping a runner from taking a base. I could be completely wrong with my assessment, and yes it is probably too early when it comes to Bradley's bat, but a guy batting .300 over 600 PA with a noodle arm versus a .250 hitter with a big arm will be on base 30 more times (outside of walks, etc), and can we say that arm vs noodle saves 30 runners?
The "ARM" component of UZR and DRS includes baserunner kills as well as runners who did or did not attempt to advance. UZR says his arm has been wirth +1.4 runs to this point (which may or may not include his play last night, I don't know how often that gets updated) while DRS believes he has been roughly average in that respect (zero runs).
EDIT:
For some context, the best CF arm ratings in 2013 according to UZR were Leonys Martin (+6.9), Adam Jones (+6.0) and Carlos Gomez (+5.3). The worst were Jon Jay, Coco Crisp, and Jacoby at -5.7, -5.4, and -4.2 respectively.
Overall, a center fielder's arm is a pretty small part of their value, but it is definitely useful.
EDIT:
For some context, the best CF arm ratings in 2013 according to UZR were Leonys Martin (+6.9), Adam Jones (+6.0) and Carlos Gomez (+5.3). The worst were Jon Jay, Coco Crisp, and Jacoby at -5.7, -5.4, and -4.2 respectively.
Overall, a center fielder's arm is a pretty small part of their value, but it is definitely useful.
This. There is significant value in having a CF who not only gets to everything but has an arm that opposing players and coaches will hesitate to challenge. I don't think that we're grasping at straws here as much as admiring a phase of the game that JBJ is pretty damn good at.MuzzyField said:
williams_482 said:
Thanks for looking that up. So, the best arms are about 10-15 runs better over a full season than the worst arms.
So, what's that translate to in OPB / SLG? Is it like having a 10 point increase in OBP and a 15 point increase in SLG? Or is it twice/half that?
Run prevention/defense is even more critical given the decline in runs scored, so far, in 2014.
For further context, JBJ's 1.4 ARM rating this year is second best in all of baseball for center fielders (Leonys Martin of Texas has a ridiculous 6.1).
On the other front, JBJ is now batting .255/.333/.373 in 58 PA over his last 15 games. It's kind of a measure of how disappointing a season he's had so far that I find that line encouraging, but, well, there ya have it. That seems like about the level of offense which, if he could sustain it, would be enough to make him a plus player overall with the excellent defense. (It's similar to Gomes' season line of .234/.333/.383, which amounts to a 98 OPS+.)
The fly in the ointment is that this, um, gaudy two-week line is driven mostly by a .375 BABIP. He's striking out more than ever over this stretch (31%), and walking less (7%). But at least he's shown that he can be something other than a black hole for a non-trivial stretch of at-bats.
The fly in the ointment is that this, um, gaudy two-week line is driven mostly by a .375 BABIP. He's striking out more than ever over this stretch (31%), and walking less (7%). But at least he's shown that he can be something other than a black hole for a non-trivial stretch of at-bats.
One of the problems with JBJ's season has obviously been slumps. He has put together 7 game streaks where he has looked more than competent. His big issue is that he has put 15-18 game slumps in between them, and the slumps are horrific to the tune of OPS below 250.
However, he was on a little hot streak before the last terrible road trip, and he immediately slumped on the road trip, but he broke out of it again after 5 games. In the last 15 games he has a 706 OPS but with 5 games at 876, 5 games 379, 5 games 859. The Sox can probably live with this on/off cycle as long as the offs stay short. And then you also hope that as he matures the offs become less deep and the streaks become longer. But, it's hard to take this place seriously when you guys salivate over prospects then want them jettisoned as soon as they struggle in the majors.
However, he was on a little hot streak before the last terrible road trip, and he immediately slumped on the road trip, but he broke out of it again after 5 games. In the last 15 games he has a 706 OPS but with 5 games at 876, 5 games 379, 5 games 859. The Sox can probably live with this on/off cycle as long as the offs stay short. And then you also hope that as he matures the offs become less deep and the streaks become longer. But, it's hard to take this place seriously when you guys salivate over prospects then want them jettisoned as soon as they struggle in the majors.
That's a very good question. The only thing I could find online was a ball-parked correlation between OPS and runs created, where someone in the Oriole forum was using 50 points of OPS equating to 10 runs created. That feels about right to me, but maybe one of the stat gurus in here has something more definitive.Plympton91 said:
It's not a good question. There is almost no point in trying to equate defensive metrics with some offensive measures. Not only is it a fool's errand, but it creates this stupid thing where you try and create equivalence of players through just their offense. If you want to look at the whole player value then learn how to do that, don't force square pegs into round holes just to use terms you are comfortable with. At least WAR attempts to normalize these things by bringing everything to run equivalence.
Is the demeaning tone really necessary? The guy asked a very reasonable question - what does the value of JBJ's arm translate to in terms of OPS? I'm sure there's limitations and imperfections in such an approach, all of which could be disclaimed upfront by anyone inclined to offer a helpful response. But it doesn't seem like a stretch to equate runs prevented on defense to runs created on offense, especially when runs created does have a correlation to OPS.smastroyin said:
MuzzyField said:
I don't think that necessarily follows. It depends on what is driving the decline in runs scored.
If the decline in runs scored is being driven by an increase in the strikeout rate, for instance, then defense would be less critical, would it not?
Likewise, if the decline in runs scored were being driven by increased use of shifts and defensive positioning as a result of video and computer analysis, then physical defensive ability would be less critical, since on any given play you'd be more likely to be standing exactly where the ball was hit.
If the decline in runs scored was being driven by teams placing more emphasis on defense and less on offense, then the new market inefficiency that should be exploited is some form of offensive talent -- perhaps, given the effectiveness of shifts, it is hitters who make consistent contact and can and are willing to use the whole field, like Brock Holt and when he's right, Daniel Nava, plus David Ortiz when he feels like it (and Jacoby Ellsbury).
In order to derive an equivalent value of OPS you have to back out of runs created. In order to do that, you then have make a guess as to the ratio of OBP and SLG that creates the same runs and of course if you know all of that you already have all of the information you need to compare the players.
But the whole point is if you already have the runs information you don't need to torture everything and make assumptions. You can just say that Jackie Bradley's arm makes him the equivalent of another player who is 6 runs better offensively assuming everything else balances out. And since it normally doesn't balance out, by the way, once you are at this point you may as well consider baserunning and total defensive package.
But the whole point is if you already have the runs information you don't need to torture everything and make assumptions. You can just say that Jackie Bradley's arm makes him the equivalent of another player who is 6 runs better offensively assuming everything else balances out. And since it normally doesn't balance out, by the way, once you are at this point you may as well consider baserunning and total defensive package.
Jimmy Piersall was the best CFer I ever saw.Al Zarilla said:
He played as shallow as Paul Blair and never had a ball hit over his head that didn't reach the CF wall. The howitzer that was his right arm went "pop" during that throwing contest with Willie Mays. It was a bit above average after that.
In a season featuring a great deal of regression in comparison to 2013, it's nice that opposing teams have to be a little less auto-aggressive on balls hit to CF. Other than maybe Miguel Cabrera, has anyone been held at third on a single to center in the previous decade?
Cool, someone else that saw Piersall play (I assume you're not going off some old Red Sox film or books). That one camera they used for TV back then, up high and behind the plate, well, it gave us all it could. We didn't get down to Fenway too often from NH. Piersall did play so shallow, but didn't get burned by balls over his head, as you say. Another old fave of mine that unfortunately also didn't last a long time with the Sox was Jackie Jensen, MVP 1958. I used to have a neighbor that was at Cal with him, and she said Jackie would sit on the steps at his fraternity house and all the girls would walk by gazing at him and his blonde locks. Ted, of course, was #1 with me.Mike F said:
Sorry for rambling way off topic, but I will continue to chip in with my expert opinion on our modern day CFer, JBJ!
smastroyin said:
Isn't trying to figure out insane ways to value players the job of this forum? Are we not all here to pull out just a little bit of hair every day?
The reason I originally brought up his arm is not all skills bring equal value to the table. I know Ells and Damon where better on the bases, but I was curious, all things being equal(which I know they never are), how does an arm asset stack up directly to a hit asset. Player A and player B are the same in all areas but arm and hitting ability and player A hits .250, player B .300. How good does player A's arm have to be to make up the BA difference? Since I could find no stats, I posed the question to see if anyone had insight
On another point, I also believe "value" is relevant to the team. Last year's offense could mask his bat much better than this year's. I think Bradley would have had more value to the 2013 squad than 2014.