Jackie Bradley, Jr. - Help
- Thread starter ScubaSteveAvery
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Eddie Jurak said:
Neither Butler nor Lewis ever struck out much even when they were ineffective, but neither did they play in such a high-K environment as Bourn or Bradley. Still, they are bad comps in that respect.
Bourn, though, was in the ballpark. His first year, he was at 27.3%; since then, he's managed to keep that in a much more acceptable 17-23% range, which was also his rate in the minors.
Bradley's at 30.8%, and had a similar rate in the minors. Bourn might be a good comp.
The Gray Eagle said:
I agree 100% that it's too early to give up on JBJ and that there's still time for him to figure it out, but with all the guys you mentioned, Lewis, Butler, Bourn... stolen bases were a big part of their offensive value. Bradley has never been caught (in 6 tries) at the major league level, but he doesn't seem to have the blazing speed and/or instincts needed to steal bases effectively. Now, if he does have the natural speed and athleticism the ability to steal bases can be taught, but I don't know if he'll bring in 30 steals a season like some of those other guys.
Bradley displayed great plate discipline in the minors, but it seems like he's having a hard time with hard throwers in the big leagues. That's going to make it difficult for him to judge balls or strikes since he's having to make that determination much quicker.
So what's the solution? Change his swing by starting earlier? Shortening his load?
Just from looking at his highlights it seems like Bradley's hands drift back. As the ball approaches he loads in anticipation of the swing... and then his hands continue drifting slightly back as the ball approaches. It seems to me this is a bad habit that could be fairly easy to correct and help him out a bit. I've got to imagine that this is something the Sox have noticed, but if it's the kind of thing that a player has been doing for 20 years since t-ball it might be a little harder to correct than I thought. Ideally you would want to load once and then from there, any motion made is towards the ball. If Bradley's difficulty comes from catching up to high heat or being able to judge the strike zone on harder pitched balls, maybe simplifying his swing will help.
On the other hand, maybe more exposure will get him used to these speeds and he'll blossom ala Bourn, Butler and to a lesser extent Lewis.
Lewis wasn't the speedster Bourn or Butler were, but he stole 46 bases in '93 and 28+ 4 other times. I guess the interesting question is whether the speed was part of the reason these players developed, or whether their speed was just the reason they were given an opportunity.The Gray Eagle said:
BREF determines "power" or "finesse" pitchers by looking at strikeouts and walks.Al Zarilla said:
Worth noting that "power" pitchers are generally better than "finesse" pitchers by this classification. the league as a whole has a 93 OPS+ against "power" pitchers, a 96 OPS+ against "average power/finesse," and a 106 OPS+ against "finesse."
OK, but aren't pitchers high in strikeouts plus walks also high mph guys? Also, FWIW, there have been a lot of gamethread posts all year saying he can't catch up with fastballs.williams_482 said:
I mentioned in last night's gamethread that even John Kruk was on him pretty hard for swinging for the fences when all that was needed was a single to tie the game. He's overswinging. Whether he did that in the minors, when he did hit, I don't know.
It seems like a good bit of overstatement to say Bradley has no speed or power. He certainly seems capable of 10-12 HRs and smart enough to give you 10-12 steals with a high success rate. The problem begins and ends with the ridiculous strikeout rate to me.Rudy Pemberton said:
Maybe he's too patient?
Rudy Pemberton said:
He had decent power in the minors, to the tune of a .480 SLG.
Al Zarilla said:
Not catching up to fastballs is just as likely to be about pitch recognition as it is to be about velocity. A lot of very good big league hitters can't catch up to Uehara's fastball, and that's not because he throws hard.
If Bradley could pick up on the breaking pitches quicker, he'd buy himself that extra tenth of a second to make better contact on the heat. Perhaps some mechanical improvements could help, but I tend to doubt that's the main issue. Not that I know what is: maybe his plate approach needs an adjustment, maybe it's confidence, maybe it's a lack of familiarity with MLB pitchers.
One thing that might be promising is how many of Bradley's better performances vs. individual pitchers are those he's faced more than once.
The offensive comp that is starting to scare me--right down to the calls to stop swinging for the fences--is Donnie Sadler.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Sadler didn't have the offensive performance in the minors that Bradley has. Bradley's .842 OPS in AAA last year was higher than anything Sadler had even in his best season which, BTW, came in the Midwest League. Sadler's career minor league OPS was .717. Bradley's so far has been .876.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sadler001don
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bradle000jac
Which is to say, I don't think you need to worry about this.
Over the monster has some reasons for cautious optimism http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/6/3/5773432/jackie-bradley-jr-struggling-adapting-red-sox.
Basically, it seems that Bradley has made some adjustments to hit the inside fastball but is now getting beat with off-speed stuff down and outside the strike zone, and he might be adjusting back to that as well.
Basically, it seems that Bradley has made some adjustments to hit the inside fastball but is now getting beat with off-speed stuff down and outside the strike zone, and he might be adjusting back to that as well.
My useless contribution to this is that I wonder for a guy like Bradley who sees a lot of pitches, if the strike zone isn't called a little differently than he is used to and if he has to recalibrate his batting eye. It seems like he is the hole a lot from called strikes.
I have no issue with the strikeouts vis-a-vis his potential. Different players have different approaches and even in translating minor league statistics strikeouts have never been shown to be a reason that a player would do better or worse once he reached the majors. Regardless, in the minors Bradley struck out in 17% of his PA. This is actually fairly pedestrian and there are many many players that strike out more. Some guy named David Arias was at 21% for his minor league career. He must not have had much of a career, right? Manny Ramirez was 19%. Mike Napoli 26%!!! How did he ever make it with such a disturbing K rate? The fact is that K's look bad and are frustrating but they don't really tell us much about a players future (other than that they will likely continue to strike out).
I have no issue with the strikeouts vis-a-vis his potential. Different players have different approaches and even in translating minor league statistics strikeouts have never been shown to be a reason that a player would do better or worse once he reached the majors. Regardless, in the minors Bradley struck out in 17% of his PA. This is actually fairly pedestrian and there are many many players that strike out more. Some guy named David Arias was at 21% for his minor league career. He must not have had much of a career, right? Manny Ramirez was 19%. Mike Napoli 26%!!! How did he ever make it with such a disturbing K rate? The fact is that K's look bad and are frustrating but they don't really tell us much about a players future (other than that they will likely continue to strike out).
Rasputin said:
Well, that's a relief.
Seriously, I realize Bradley has been a better mlb hitter, and it's not so much that I really think he'll have as abortive a career as Sadler, just that there are similarities that worry me. Both highly ranked prospects (Sadler: #28 at 21, #51 at 22), both guys who walked and K'd a fair amount in the minors, and whose BB/K took a nosedive as they hit the majors. Differences: Sadler had more speed and less power, and the BB/K downturn was more a matter of losing BB rate than gaining K rate. But I guess what brought the comparison to mind was remembering Sadler's big swings (and big misses) and the way everybody was talking about how he needed to focus on contact and turn himself into a BA guy.
smastroyin said:
You can get away with striking out that much if you're ripping the living crap out of the ball when you're not missing. How many guys have had substantial ML careers with a >20% K rate and a <.175 ISO, I wonder? I bet it's a pretty short list.
The question is whether or not his minor league career should be ignored because of strikeout rate, as p91 and others have implied. I'm just saying there is nothing there to say it should be. The player we are seeing in the majors is not the same, but his strikeouts in the minors were not going to forewarn this kind of struggle, and are not an indicator that he will continue to do so.
But here are some players that are close to your criteria.
Bobby Abreu. 18% K/PA. 22% K/AB .161 ISO
Chili Davis. 17% K/PA. 20% K/AB .177 ISO
Tony Phillips. 16% K/PA. 20% K/AB .133 ISO
Jim Winn. 18% K/PA. 21% K/AB. .186 ISO
Juan Samuel. 22% K/PA. 24% K/AB. .161 ISO
Royce Clayton. 17% K/PA. 19% K/AB. .109 ISO
That's just from the top 100 career K leaders. I don't know what the goalpost of "substantial" is but these guys all played 15 years or more. Obviously we want more than Juan Samuel out of JBJ, but if we got that, it wouldn't be too bad either with his defense. Obviously if he were to have Bobby Abreu or Tony Phillips or Chili Davis's career while playing a good CF we would be more than happy.
Please note that I am not guaranteeing his success. Many many more players fail than succeed. But if you want to develop talent you can't just cycle through people because your fans are frustrated watching someone K.
But here are some players that are close to your criteria.
Bobby Abreu. 18% K/PA. 22% K/AB .161 ISO
Chili Davis. 17% K/PA. 20% K/AB .177 ISO
Tony Phillips. 16% K/PA. 20% K/AB .133 ISO
Jim Winn. 18% K/PA. 21% K/AB. .186 ISO
Juan Samuel. 22% K/PA. 24% K/AB. .161 ISO
Royce Clayton. 17% K/PA. 19% K/AB. .109 ISO
That's just from the top 100 career K leaders. I don't know what the goalpost of "substantial" is but these guys all played 15 years or more. Obviously we want more than Juan Samuel out of JBJ, but if we got that, it wouldn't be too bad either with his defense. Obviously if he were to have Bobby Abreu or Tony Phillips or Chili Davis's career while playing a good CF we would be more than happy.
Please note that I am not guaranteeing his success. Many many more players fail than succeed. But if you want to develop talent you can't just cycle through people because your fans are frustrated watching someone K.
The only question that interests me regarding Bradley is how they can maximize his long-term productivity. They should send him to AAA only because they think he will benefit, not because they think they can win one or two more games at the major league level this year. If sending him down is going to mess him up, those one or two games aren't worth it.
Quick search of 93 players who post 1947 OPS+d a full season at between 55 and 72 (Bradley is now at 62), in their first or second year in the league at age 23 to 25 reveals mostly guys who indeed could not ever hit MLB pitching, but also includes the following who turned it around at least to some extent: Dee Gordon, Juan Uribe, Brady Anderson, Rick Aurlia, Glenn Beckert, Terry Pendleton, BJ Surhoff, Steven Drew (!) and Bill Robinson. It's way too early to be giving up on JBJ. Too much riding on him and a severe lack of alternatives. Leave him alone, play him almost every day unless you think he needs a day off to catch his breath and check back in come Labor Day.
It just gets back to the same problem the Sox have year-in, year-out with young players: the pressure to win a championship, the stress from the fanbase, and the team's ability to replace homegrown talent creates tension against the time needed for players to make adjustments, learn at the major league level, and develop into their full potential.
Unless you're Xander Bogaerts -- a truly elite talent -- it takes time to work out kinks and flaws, and it's very hard to do that in Boston. It's an ironic drawback of the team's exceptional player development system.
Unless you're Xander Bogaerts -- a truly elite talent -- it takes time to work out kinks and flaws, and it's very hard to do that in Boston. It's an ironic drawback of the team's exceptional player development system.
Savin Hillbilly said:
A recent former Red Sox comes to mind immediately, turns out to be close but no cigar. Mike Cameron: 7884 PA, 1901 K, .249 BA, .444 SLG. .020 off on your ISO line, but in the ballpark. It's a good comp to illustrate a last sentence missing from the quoted above: The Short List is definitely probably made of up guys who play Gold Glove-caliber defense at a priority position, like Cameron and JBJ.
JimBoSox9 said:
I just checked this, and it's actually a fairly long list the way I framed it, because my criteria were a bit too loose. Bring the K rate up to 22% and the ISO down to .170, and eliminate catchers, and it looks like this (career PA >3000):
Jose Hernandez
B.J. Upton
Wes Helms
Chase Headley
Gary Pettis
Donn Clendenon
Paradigm said:
This, a million times this. Alex Gordon is my current favorite example. 95 OPS+ through his first 1600 MLB PAs, 123 OPS+ in the last 2400 PAs. What major career-changing evolution happened right near that split? He turned 27. A guy with a track record like JBJ, there's just naught to do but hold on to your butts and count to fifteen hundred. Even then, you're looking at trendlines over the last quarter of the sample more than you're looking at the aggregate. A guy like Middlebrooks, more questionable bat and patience at all levels, still needs something in the 500-1000 range to draw a believable conclusion that the holes in their swing will cripple them. Sometimes, like Lowrie or WMB, circumstances conspire to string those thousand together in sub-optimal ways. The CBA Structure isn't real awesome for these late bloomers either. Stack that on top of all the big-market pressures you listed, and the necessary patience can seem impossible sometimes.
Andres Torres was just signed to a minor league deal. Probably not related and just roster filler, but who knows?
What would be really interesting is a list of guys who have started their career struggling at the plate the way JBJ has done and see how many of them went on to improve.
Lars The Wanderer said:
It's funny - I was just looking over a list of minor league free agents and came across Torres. It may be that this says more about Sizemore than it does about Bradley. If they cut Sizemore, they need more CF depth, and a guy like Torres might be useful as a 5th outfielder who can play CF, since the only other plausible alternative would be Corey Brown.
EDIT - just noticed that Torres has favorable splits vs. LHP (.737 OPS vs. .680 against RHP), which could make him a possible complement to JBJ in CF.
Gordon was rushed to the majors after just one AA season. JBJ was rushed to the majors last year after just 61 AA games and fell on his face. This year he's been up again all year despite just 80 AAA of solid (not excellent) performance and his MLB struggles last year. Maybe teams wouldn't have to be so patient with these guys at the major league level if they were a little more patient with them in the minors.JimBoSox9 said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
Here are some of JBJ's component stats so far:
BB rate: 9.1%
K rate: 30.2%
ISO: .110
BABIP: .284
Let's look at rookies between the ages of 22 and 25 with 300+ PA who were close to those numbers either way: say 8-10% BB, 27-33% K, .090-.130 ISO, .270-.300 BABIP.
Believe it or not, since 1947, there is exactly one player other than JBJ who fits the age, PA and rookie status markers and whose component stats were all in the above range: Michael Saunders.
Saunders is a great comp: hyped rookie who hit very well (though not quite as well as JBJ) in the minors, with fairly similar power, PD and BABIP numbers--then hit the majors with a deafening thud. The biggest difference is that Saunders had much higher K rates in the minors than JBJ, so his MLB K rates were not as much of a shock. But otherwise, they're pretty similar.
The good news is that Saunders' track has been positive overall: after a godawful short stint in his first year (42 wRC+), he improved somewhat in his second year (89), but got optioned back to the minors in his third year, providing horrific MLB offense (19) in 179 PA's worth of callups. But since then, he's been OK--not great, but OK, with seasons of 108, 98, and (so far in 2014) 107.
If JBJ can match that offensive arc, with his defense, I'll take it.
The comps here are very interesting, but isn't there another place to look for signs about what we can expect for his future development? I mean his own minor league stats. Guys who hit the way he did in AA and AA at the same age -- what happens to them? What he has done so far in the majors is not in line with what his minor league stats suggest he will do. Let's give him more time.
I posted in another thread that a good comp based on minor league numbers is former WS prospect Brian Anderson.
Another comp based on minor league numbers is Steve Lyons.
Another comp based on minor league numbers is Steve Lyons.
Based on JBJ's AAA stats, Ron Shandler gives his MLE's as a .254 BA, 9% walk rate, and 75% "contact rate," which is (ab-k) / ab. Shandler says 75% is the edge of respectability. JBJ's contact rate this season is at 65%, so way below the acceptable threshold. A year ago Shandler calculated a similar set of MLE's based on his AA stats.
Eventually we might say that he just isn't going to live up to his potential, but not now.
Eventually we might say that he just isn't going to live up to his potential, but not now.
There have been a lot of posts questioning JBJ's approach/recommending he look for better pitches earlier. Is this an institutional problem? IOW, is this typical of prospects who come up through the Sox system? ESPN dropped a stat on AJP last night that he had one of, if not the "highest swing rates" in MLB. He is incredibly aggressive. AJ is clearly new to this team and does not approach his at bats like a stereotypical BoSock.
Based on recent history, isn't it safe to assume that Pawtucket and Portland (and lower minor teams) are preaching the approach that we are discussing here? If I am a Boston prospect (batter), I imagine I would be trying to base my batting approach just like my "big brothers" are doing it in the Bigs.
I don't claim to know what is being taught down on their farm, but after watching Pawtucket play Durham twice last week, I would say that the majority of the PawSox batters were looking to take pitches and work counts.
Based on recent history, isn't it safe to assume that Pawtucket and Portland (and lower minor teams) are preaching the approach that we are discussing here? If I am a Boston prospect (batter), I imagine I would be trying to base my batting approach just like my "big brothers" are doing it in the Bigs.
I don't claim to know what is being taught down on their farm, but after watching Pawtucket play Durham twice last week, I would say that the majority of the PawSox batters were looking to take pitches and work counts.
When Theo was a new GM, the Sox gave every minor league hitter a copy of Ted Williams' book. I don't know if they still do, but I hope so.
Ted's Rule #1: Get A Good Pitch To Hit.
Ted's Rule #1: Get A Good Pitch To Hit.
HriniakPosterChild said:
He also called the home run the most important hit in baseball and instructed hitters to have a slightly upward swing. I don't think the boys have taken that to heart.
HriniakPosterChild said:
I never understood the whole taking your top hand off at the end of your swing. A lot of players release that hand in their follow-through but IMO you should wait until the very end of your swing. Seems like a way to get the most power, but it worked for Frank Thomas and countless others so Hriniak was right about one thing. Letting players find what works for them.
BosRedSox5 said:
I was referencing the whole "slight upward swing" issue that made Williams want to puke whenever he saw Dwight Evans swing a bat. (God only knows what he wanted to do when he saw Rich Gedman swing one.) Toward the end of his life, Williams came around on the top hand release.
I do have to say, tonight sure highlighted how his defense, arm, and baserunning can generate a significantly positive contribution to overall WAR. That catch was excellent, and the throw was amazing. But, you can't survive in the majors, either individually or as a team, carrying a 580 OPS for 650 plate appearances.
I've watched a lot of baseball and I don't think I've ever seen a play like the one he made tonight. Extraordinary.
Who's the last centerfield the Sox have had that can throw like this? Fred Lynn?
It doesn't come into play that often, but after a decade of Damon, Coco and Ellsbury, it's a revelation.
It doesn't come into play that often, but after a decade of Damon, Coco and Ellsbury, it's a revelation.
Except he came in on the ball at first and shouldn't have doubled off Aviles if Aviles had read the ball better? Nice recovery, but what am I missing?
He's a great defensive player but I'm not sure this is the best example.
Edit: Oh, the throw? OK, nice throw for sure.
He's a great defensive player but I'm not sure this is the best example.
Edit: Oh, the throw? OK, nice throw for sure.
The throw was extremely impressive. As noted he did come in two steps before going back to chase the ball down. He's to be commended to recovering so well, and I assume that the false starts will fade away with further experience.
As for blaming this on Aviles, well sure. But Damon/Coco/Dreamboat don't and can't make that throw. Runner mistakes happen all the time, look at Napoli last night. Being able to take advantage of them is another thing entirely.
As for blaming this on Aviles, well sure. But Damon/Coco/Dreamboat don't and can't make that throw. Runner mistakes happen all the time, look at Napoli last night. Being able to take advantage of them is another thing entirely.
Nice throw? Hell, it was two steps off of first!
Maybe SC Top 10 . . . as the 10th best play of the day
Maybe SC Top 10 . . . as the 10th best play of the day
Lose Remerswaal said:
I'm sure you jest, but making a throw from deep left-center to first base on one hop, even if it was a step or two wide of the bag, is something no Red Sox CF has been able to do in a long long time. Damon and Ellsbury would have three-hopped a throw to second from where Bradley was...maybe.
Funny quote on NESN after the game: "I'm proud of my arm. I work on it, doing a lot of long toss. I'm willing to throw with the best of them." I think he wanted to say I can throw with the best of them but a bit modest.
He has 6 assists, tied for the MLB lead for center fielders with A.J. Pollock of the D-backs. Cespedes has 9, all from left field. Puig only has 4, but maybe they don't run much on him any more.
He has 6 assists, tied for the MLB lead for center fielders with A.J. Pollock of the D-backs. Cespedes has 9, all from left field. Puig only has 4, but maybe they don't run much on him any more.
