Jacksonity......or the Knick thread

[nighthob]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the new CBA makes it so Paul (and for that matter Howard) would have to take at least a $26 million dollar hit no matter what - if either of them signs with any team other than the one who holds his rights prior to free agency. This is a test case, for the new CBA. It is hoped that those millions will keep stars with their current teams, but there is a good chance it won't work. Whether Paul signs with the Knicks or another team Paul will still make huge money. With the potential Knicks deal, for example, he would still average nearly $15 million a year and the supposed $45 million deficit would be at least partially made up for the fact that he would become a free agent one year earlier (meaning over the course of 5 years the difference is more likely to be far less). In NY there would also be substantial revenue to be gained through increased advertising, further cutting down any difference. Its also important to remember that just last year Bosh and James each took $15 million dollars less to sign with Miami - so its not like taking less to win is unprecedented.
I suppose the Hornets might be inclined to roll the dice with Paul - after all, unless they can convince him to consider other options they can't get much back from NY anyway. This would be a big contrast to Howard's circumstances. By all accounts it appears Howard wants to go to LA, and LA is also probably the team with the most to offer in return. Considering this, while it make some sense for New Orleans to keep Paul, it would be fairly shocking if Howard isn't traded..

Paul only has to take a $26 million hit if he leaves the tam that he's playing for to sign with a team that has the cap space to give him a max deal; New York does not have that cap space, thanks to Amar'e & 'Melo grabbing every dime they could.

And, no, the fewer guaranteed years when you're 6' 175, live at the rim and have an existing knee problem isn't a bonus. Because one good injury and that 4/55 contract is all that there is. Guys like Paul have a long history of falling off the cliff somewhere between the ages of 30 and 32, and Paul is already 26. It's a gigantic gamble with next to no upside for Paul when he could simply re-sign with whatever team trades for him and make more than twice the money.

 

[kazuneko]

Paul only has to take a $26 million hit if he leaves the tam that he's playing for to sign with a team that has the cap space to give him a max deal; New York does not have that cap space, thanks to Amar'e & 'Melo grabbing every dime they could.

That's exactly what I said. For NY the difference is $45 million - and an extra year. When you add in the one less year and NY being the nation's biggest market you are looking at a lot less of an actual difference. Paul can parlay that market into millions more in endorsements over the course of the contract.

And, no, the fewer guaranteed years when you're 6' 175, live at the rim and have an existing knee problem isn't a bonus. Because one good injury and that 4/55 contract is all that there is.

This is a nonsensical statement. Of course, one less year is a bonus. Are you saying he would prefer a 5 year $55 million dollar deal over a 4 year $55 million deal? Obviously not. Sure, he could blow his knee out and not be able to play after year two, but that won't change the overall money difference of the two contracts (it'll remain at $45 million)but of course if he doesn't have a career ending injury mid-contract he will end up getting paid by someone for that fifth year - and that amount would need to be added to any comparison of his earnings over that 5-year stretch. So, although you're right it might not be an advantage (if he has a career-ending injury) it is not possible for it to be an economic disadvantage and with luck, that extra year could be worth a substantial amount of money(heck, if he is still a star it could garner him as much as $20 million or more).

 

[thestardawg]

FWIW 5 million dollar lifetime gift tax exemption per individual above and beyond the 13k per person per year exemption. 10 Million if you stack the exemption with your spouse.

But yeah..I don't think Amare and Carmelo are going to play Santa Claus.

 

[nighthob]

This is a nonsensical statement. Of course, one less year is a bonus. Are you saying he would prefer a 5 year $55 million dollar deal over a 4 year $55 million deal?

Those aren't his options. You claimed that the 4/55 was better than the five year deal he could sign with whichever team traded for him because he'd reach free agency sooner. Only players with Paul's size and style of play have a long and storied history of breaking down around the age of 30, and he already has a knee injury. One more knee injury and he wouldn't be a max player when he reached free agency in your fantasy scenario. And there'd be zero chance of a big payday.

 

[kazuneko]

Those aren't his options. You claimed that the 4/55 was better than the five year deal he could sign with whichever team traded for him because he'd reach free agency sooner.

No, I explicitly stated that his best option (in terms of earnings) was signing with the team that holds his rights entering free agency (ie. New Orleans if he isn't traded). I did point out that while the overall guaranteed money difference is a disadvantage to signing with a rival team (as he would lose anywhere from $26 -$45 million in guaranteed money) the fact that a contract with a rival team would end one year earlier than a max deal with his own team means that over the course of the five years that difference might end up far less than that difference in guaranteed money.

If for example, Paul entered free agency and signed a max deal with the Celtics, he could earn 4years/$74 million -or $26 million less than 5/$100 million he could have earned if he resigned with the Hornets. That said, if he is still a star after his 4 years with the Cs he could extend his contract and earn as much as $20 million during that fifth year. In that case the difference between the two contracts (over the course of 5 years) would end up only $6 million dollars (not $26 million), or only a little over a million dollars a year. Obviously, that won't happen if his career ends earlier in the contract, and that's why guaranteed money is better than potential earnings. That said, the ability to increase potential earnings through a free agent year (in that fifth year) is still a potential economic benefit that can't be ignored when comparing his options.

 

[kazuneko]

But I agree with you that he may very well take less to go to the Knicks, I just don't see why everyone thinks it's a lock when the Knicks have nothing to trade for Paul and Paul would have to take a $45M discount to join them in free agency. Could it happen? Absolutely, but I don't even think the odds are better than 50-50.

True. Which is why New Orleans might be best off to let him go to free agency and see if he really is up to giving up either $45 or $26 million dollars worth of guaranteed money. Still, that's a high risk move. Whats probably best for everyone is if Paul agrees to be traded to another contender - someone who can actually offer something in return for him. The Cs would have been a great option, though I can't imagine the Celtics will do that rumored deal unless Paul changes his tune about extending. But the idea that Rondo alone wouldn't be enough to get Paul seems silly - - in their current circumstances a return of Rondo is about as good a deal as New Orleans could hope for.

 

[Brickowski]

IMHO Paul will change his tune about extending, since he forfeits the same $26M if he refuses to sign an extension with a team to which he is traded and becomes an unrestricted free agent on 7/1/2012. Maybe Paul would like to play elsewhere, but it really boils down to which team can offer NO the best package, because as the new deal appears to be structured, it is financially irrational for a player like Paul to go into unrestricted free agency.

What Paul can do if traded to a team like the Celtics where he allegedly won't resign is to play chicken right down until the end in hopes of forcing a trade on draft night.

 

[jon abbey]

KBergCBS Ken Berger
Multiple league executives say the Knicks are now in the lead to land Tyson Chandler, jumping in front of the Warriors.

If the deal goes through, the Knicks use amnesty on Chauncey Billups and move Ronny Turiaf to make room for Chandler, sources say.

https://twitter.com/#!/KBergCBS/status/144839022613757952

This would make NY legit, and maybe Steve Nash follows next summer. Please please please actually happen.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

KBergCBS Ken Berger
Multiple league executives say the Knicks are now in the lead to land Tyson Chandler, jumping in front of the Warriors.

If the deal goes through, the Knicks use amnesty on Chauncey Billups and move Ronny Turiaf to make room for Chandler, sources say.

https://twitter.com/#!/KBergCBS/status/144839022613757952

This would make NY legit, and maybe Steve Nash follows next summer. Please please please actually happen.

This would presumably be the Knicks waiving the white flag on Paul next off-season. They are already at 41 million next year and with Chandler would be at $56+ million.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

KBergCBS Ken Berger
Multiple league executives say the Knicks are now in the lead to land Tyson Chandler, jumping in front of the Warriors.

If the deal goes through, the Knicks use amnesty on Chauncey Billups and move Ronny Turiaf to make room for Chandler, sources say.

https://twitter.com/...839022613757952

This would make NY legit, and maybe Steve Nash follows next summer. Please please please actually happen.

Chandler is pretty much exactly what the Knicks need. I, for one, will be glad to see them finally make a proactive move and stop waiting on the Paul pipe dream.

That said, they'll need a PG this year, too. Unless they have a ton of faith in the Tony Douglas, Iman Shumpert duo.

 

[jon abbey]

Jamaal Tinsley might get signed cheaply then to help.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Jamaal Tinsley might get signed cheaply then to help.

Yeah, I saw Alan Hahn mention that.

I wonder if there's any way to acquire Ramon Sessions. He's has a lot of ties to the D'Antonis and is in a Cavs backcourt with Irving, Baron Davis, and Daniel Gibson.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Well, this is interesting:

https://twitter.com/#!/ESPNSteinLine/status/144852313922748416

 

[jon abbey]

Broussard says that too:

Chris_Broussard Chris Broussard
Don't think NYK out of CP3 Hunt if it gets Ty Chandler. Ty & CP r close friends. Most likely, Amare would hit trade market.

NY needs to be careful there, pissing off Amare without actually being able to move him since his contract is uninsured.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Broussard says that too:

Chris_Broussard Chris Broussard
Don't think NYK out of CP3 Hunt if it gets Ty Chandler. Ty & CP r close friends. Most likely, Amare would hit trade market.

NY needs to be careful there, pissing off Amare without actually being able to move him since his contract is uninsured.

Yeah, I agree. It seems like a long shot to me, so maybe Broussard et al are just throwing shit against the wall.

 

[Mike in CT]

Perhaps the Knicks want to see if Houston would rather have Amare than Gasol or Bynum.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Suddenly I'm rooting for the Knicks to do something awesome. Anything but the goddamn Lakers.

 

[Statman]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Just spoke to Andy Miller, agent for Chauncey Billups, who describes his client as "irate" over possibility of Knicks using amnesty on him.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

He's likely trying to scare the cap room teams away from making a claim so he can then make two salaries this season.

 

[dolomite133]

So they waive Billups to sign Chandler, right? So who would play point for them this year? From what I could tell there weren't a lot of good free agent point guards available.

 

[Statman]

He's likely trying to scare the cap room teams away from making a claim so he can then make two salaries this season.

Billups can't earn more than his contract rate even if the amnesty provision is used on him. Any team bidding for his services has to submit a blind bid for Billups and the team with the highest bid gets him with NYK picking up the difference.

So if a team like Miami is the winning bidder with a $3M bid for Billups, then NYK pays the remaining $11.1M Billups.

 

[Brickowski]

So they waive Billups to sign Chandler, right? So who would play point for them this year? From what I could tell there weren't a lot of good free agent point guards available.

Barea, TJ Ford, Bibby, Watson, Telfair. All unrestricted. Barea would be a really good addition for the Knicks. I'm astounded that the Mavs don't seem interested in bringing him back.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Who knows? They have Douglas, Shumpert and Rautins on the roster, but my guess is they'd bring in a vet. Baron Davis is about to be amnestied, according to reports. If he makes it through waivers, he's already making a paycheck from Cleveland, maybe he'd take the vet minimum? I don't know if the rules prohibit this, but the same could potentially happen with Billups? But you're right, really not many people out there.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Barea, TJ Ford, Bibby, Watson, Telfair. All unrestricted. Barea would be a really good addition for the Knicks. I'm astounded that the Mavs don't seem interested in bringing him back.

Ford agreed to sign in San Antonio, Telfair agreed in Phoenix. Barea is too costly, I assume. Bibby and Watson are options though.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Billups can't earn more than his contract rate even if the amnesty provision is used on him. Any team bidding for his services has to submit a blind bid for Billups and the team with the highest bid gets him with NYK picking up the difference.

So if a team like Miami is the winning bidder with a $3M bid for Billups, then NYK pays the remaining $11.1M Billups.

But if no team bids on him, he is an unrestricted free agent and receives the 14 mil from the Knicks in addition to the contract he signs for.

 

[mandro ramtinez]

Miami can't bid on Billups because they aren't under the cap. I guess they could sign him if nobody bids on him.

 

[Statman]

Miami can't bid on Billups because they aren't under the cap. I guess they could sign him if nobody bids on him.

There is absolutely no way Billups gets through the waiver process. He has no shot at going to LA or MIA, hence his bitching and moaning about being amnestied.

 

[Brickowski]

There is absolutely no way Billups gets through the waiver process. He has no shot at going to LA or MIA, hence his bitching and moaning about being amnestied.

Chauncey will love playing in Sacramento. And this is the reward that Chauncey gets for being one of the named plaintiffs in the anti-trust suit against the league? Thank you, Billy Hunter!

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Paul going to the lakers for gasol and odom. Gasol then to Houston for Martin/scola

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

NM...

 

[kazuneko]

KBergCBS Ken Berger
Multiple league executives say the Knicks are now in the lead to land Tyson Chandler, jumping in front of the Warriors.

If the deal goes through, the Knicks use amnesty on Chauncey Billups and move Ronny Turiaf to make room for Chandler, sources say.

https://twitter.com/#!/KBergCBS/status/144839022613757952

This would make NY legit, and maybe Steve Nash follows next summer. Please please please actually happen.

Its an interesting move because it completely eliminates them from any chance of getting Paul..but maybe that's smart - Paul probably wasn't going to sign with NY, anyway - $45 million less in guaranteed money is asking a lot. But if the rumored deal happens and Chandler signs with the Knicks for $15 million+ they will be up against the cap for many years to come. Any chance of signing Nash would depend on him either a.) going into a an age-induced tailspin prior to reaching free agency or b.) Nash taking a tiny fraction of what other team's could offer to play in the big apple..

 

[jon abbey]

Nash loves NYC (he already has a place here), there's the D'Antoni/Amare connection (assuming D'Antoni is still around), and he'll be 38 and probably not in especially high demand. Also, his defensive liabilities, much like Melo/Amare, should be covered up somewhat by Chandler's presence in the back. It's a perfect fit.

 

[kazuneko]

Nash loves NYC (he already has a place here), there's the D'Antoni/Amare connection (assuming D'Antoni is still around), and he'll be 38 and probably not in especially high demand. Also, his defensive liabilities, much like Melo/Amare, should be covered up somewhat by Chandler's presence in the back. It's a perfect fit.

Sure, as long as Nash is feeling extremely charitable...
He could make many times what NY could offer him somewhere else.
But its possible - he's made enough money in his career that he could afford the charity.

 

[jon abbey]

Again, he's going to be 38 and is a sieve on D, so I'm not sure you're right, but yeah, we'll see.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

WojYahooNBA For teams considering claim on Chauncey Billups, he tells Y!: “A leader can be as disruptive as he can be productive..This is about me now.”

Billups wants freedom to choose team. Warns those who’d claim him: You’ll regret it. “I’m tired of being the glue guy.”

This league is disgusting right now.

 

[lostjumper]

This league is disgusting right now.

Yup. I'm pretty much done with NBA basketball. I found out how fun hockey was to watch last year and haven't looked back. The CBA was supposed to fix this, and instead we have a bunch of players attempting to choose where they want to play. Whether its LeBron, Carmelo, Billups, Paul, the whole thing just disgusts me at this point.

 

[NYCSox]

This league is disgusting right now.

Right now it seems like the majority of the top players (with some notable exceptions such as Durant) have become self-important douchebags.

 

[Dogman]

So they waive Billups to sign Chandler, right? So who would play point for them this year? From what I could tell there weren't a lot of good free agent point guards available.

Bibby to NY at vet min

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Reports from last night continue this morning that the Knicks are exploring sign and trade possibilities for Jamal Crawford.

The Chandler deal made a lot of sense, but let's be honest, the machinations of it were ridiculous, and the Knicks handled it terribly. The media's mostly ignored it, because adding Chandler is the big story, but they picked up Billups' option last season, just to amnesty him a couple of months later, essentially lighting 14 million dollars on fire, and forcing them to send Turiaf and picks to Washington for nothing. With a little bit of foresight, they could have declined Billups' option, declined Turiaf's option, and just signed Chandler outright. I guess the lusting after Chris Paul made it difficult to focus on that option, but it wouldn't have been the smart play all along.

And now, we have them after Crawford, and I can't see how or why that would make them better. If you start him, you're surrounding Chandler with 3 awful defenders, and one good one (I'm assuming Douglas is the starting PG, I'll vomit if they start Bibby). And if they sign Crawford with the idea in mind that he's the main scorer for the second unit, that's better, but still an expensive option that I'm afraid is going to cost one of either Douglas, Shumpert, or Fields in a sign and trade. If it gets done for Walker, sure, I guess you have to do it. But if they send away one of the prior mentioned 3 players for Crawford it'll be a mistake. As crazy as this sounds, if they're looking for second unit scoring, I'd rather them take a flier on somebody like Adam Morrison at the vet minimum than spend 8 million dollars a year for Jamal Crawford.

But maybe I'm missing something on Crawford?

 

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

I think the issue here is that the market for Crawford has come to them in such a way that they can't pass up the value. They are talking about getting him in the 2/10 range. How can you pass that up for him?

I can't see how you deal Douglas though--unless there's yet another move for a point coming?

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I think the issue here is that the market for Crawford has come to them in such a way that they can't pass up the value. They are talking about getting him in the 2/10 range. How can you pass that up for him?

I can't see how you deal Douglas though--unless there's yet another move for a point coming?

I didn't realize the market was that low for him. If that's true, you're right, you can't pass it up.

edit: The post says Douglas has been discussed as being part of it. If that's the case, I don't really get this. I love Shumpert's potential, but it seems extremely unlikely that he's ready to contribute as a PG right off the bat. The Knicks seem to think that Mike Bibby is going to be playing meaningful minutes for them, and that scares me. The only other thing I can think is that maybe they're very confident that an amnestied Baron Davis doesn't get claimed?

 

[Stu Nahan]

Reports have it being for Balkman, Walker and Douglas. They have to make the money work. Douglas is a good defender so giving him away for Crawford doesn't make sense, but that's what they are exploring.

 

[jon abbey]

The Chandler deal made a lot of sense, but let's be honest, the machinations of it were ridiculous, and the Knicks handled it terribly. The media's mostly ignored it, because adding Chandler is the big story, but they picked up Billups' option last season, just to amnesty him a couple of months later, essentially lighting 14 million dollars on fire, and forcing them to send Turiaf and picks to Washington for nothing. With a little bit of foresight, they could have declined Billups' option, declined Turiaf's option, and just signed Chandler outright.

Just for the record, the reason this is mistaken was that Billups had a $4M buyout that would have counted against the cap if they hadn't picked up the option. If they didn't pick up Billups' option, they couldn't have gotten Chandler.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Just for the record, the reason this is mistaken was that Billups had a $4M buyout that would have counted against the cap if they hadn't picked up the option. If they didn't pick up Billups' option, they couldn't have gotten Chandler.

Oh, interesting. Was unaware of that. That's what I get for assuming Simmons knows what he's talking about.

 

[jon abbey]

They're not as thin in the backcourt right now as people seem to think: Douglas/Fields starting, Walker, Shumpert and Bibby behind them. That's not good, but it's also livable with for now. Where they are really thin is backup front court players, which unless I'm forgetting someone, currently consist of Jerome Jordan, Jared Jeffries, and Harrelson. The guy they need more than another guard is Shawne Williams.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Hearing that it's not Douglas in the deal for Crawford, which leaves Shumpert, Fields, or Walker. Walker is unlikely, and it would be a shame to lose Shumpert or Fields. If it's really as cheap a deal as 2/10 though, I think you probably pull the trigger.

 

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

They're not as thin in the backcourt right now as people seem to think: Douglas/Fields starting, Walker, Shumpert and Bibby behind them. That's not good, but it's also livable with for now. Where they are really thin is backup front court players, which unless I'm forgetting someone, currently consist of Jerome Jordan, Jared Jeffries, and Harrelson. The guy they need more than another guard is Shawne Williams.

This is absolutely spot-on. Not only depth, but they need a pure 3 point shooter--all the better from the corners-- to stretch the defense and allow Melo and Amare to work inside. Also, Williams showed an ability to guard up a bit.

As for Crawford, reports are that Douglas won't be in the deal. I'm not sure they CAN trade Shumpert right now, can they, since they just signed him? So that would leave just Balkman/Walker/Fields as guys who can be dealt...

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

You guys (Knicks fans) know this already but here is a reason Crawford can be had on the cheap. The guy is proof of dark matter. He has never met a shot he didn't like and the problem is that he takes a lot of them.

 

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

You guys (Knicks fans) know this already but here is a reason Crawford can be had on the cheap. The guy is proof of dark matter. He has never met a shot he didn't like and the problem is that he takes a lot of them.

Unquestionably so. But as long as they are looking at him as second-unit offense, that's not a bad thing. Running out Bibby-Crawford-Williams (hopefully)-Fields/Shumpert-Jeffies requires someone who can/will take their own shot.

And then he probably makes a crunch time five of Douglas-Crawford-Melo-Amare-Chandler. That unit runs through Melo, so he'll have to know better than to jack up his own shot.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Unquestionably so. But as long as they are looking at him as second-unit offense, that's not a bad thing. Running out Bibby-Crawford-Williams (hopefully)-Fields/Shumpert-Jeffies requires someone who can/will take their own shot.

And then he probably makes a crunch time five of Douglas-Crawford-Melo-Amare-Chandler. That unit runs through Melo, so he'll have to know better than to jack up his own shot.

Just reading now that the Knicks are only offering Crawford their 2.5 million dollar exception. Definitely a bargain for a guy that'll bring you 17 a night, but it probably makes the deal less likely than initially thought.