Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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SAS called Tatum the leading candidate for MVP this morning:
View: https://youtu.be/b5qv3czDnTM?si=l7qDZe_GN8c8-W3m&t=210
Tatum's case is pretty basic: He's by far the best player on what's been by far the best team. I don't think his numbers are enough to get him their (neither in volume nor in efficiency), but when the biggest voice in NBA media says this leading into the ASB, it means something. If Boston beats Denver, OKC and Milwaukee in the 2nd half of the year (with Tatum playing well), he's got a puncher's chance.
View: https://youtu.be/b5qv3czDnTM?si=l7qDZe_GN8c8-W3m&t=210
Tatum's case is pretty basic: He's by far the best player on what's been by far the best team. I don't think his numbers are enough to get him their (neither in volume nor in efficiency), but when the biggest voice in NBA media says this leading into the ASB, it means something. If Boston beats Denver, OKC and Milwaukee in the 2nd half of the year (with Tatum playing well), he's got a puncher's chance.
It’s weird that in this conversation Tatum is seen as downgraded for his (ankle sprained) Game 7 vs Miami, and Embiid is noted to have “moments” such as scoring 70, but apparently Tatum scoring a game 7 record 51 points to eliminate Embiid has been wiped from the NBAverse collective memory. Tatum’s game seems like more of a meaningful “moment” than a contrived 70 against a .200 win team in January.
Kinda want him to win the postseason MVP more than the regular season award. Betting you feel the same.
For a lot of casual viewers (and some in the media who should know better), if you haven't won a title, you're all on the same level and everyone just remembers your last game, and/or the farthest you've gotten. Game 7 vs Miami and the finals against GS are what most people think about when discussing Tatum's playoff performance, as if they are remotely equivalent to the total failure that has been Embiid in the spring.
Anyone taking Embiid's regular season exploits as proof that he's the league MVP is an unserious person.
After watching Jokic's playoff run last year, it's pretty hard for me to think of anyone else as being the MVP, until proven otherwise. He's in that zone where people forget how amazing he is because he's so consistent. I don't think even Giannis, SGA, Luka are even that close, and Tatum definitely isn't. (And Tatum has been awesome this year; definitely the best of his career.)
The Tim Bontemps straw poll is normally a really good indicator for this award and Tatum is 6th right now. It seems like theres one tier of Jokic and SGA, then GIannis and Luka.
Honestly, I think Tatum has a very, very low chance of winning MVP (like less than 1%). Mostly because even though he's the best player on the best team, I think he's being punished by all of the really good players around him which make him less "valuable"
It's really not close - all just grist for the pretty boring February conversation mill. I do think Tatum is a little underrated in this conversation as between the rest of the field. As transcendent as Luka's offensive game is, I would take what Tatum brings to the table on both ends. Shai is amazing, but Tatum's size gives him more defensive versatility. Giannis remains great, but seems to have declined slightly.
Yup, but how often does the consensus best player in the league win MVP? Lebron was the undisputed best player in the league for a solid decade (09-18), during which he missed an average of just 5 games per year and his teams won an average of 57 games...yet he only won 4 MVPs. Narrative is a funny thing, but if Tatum plays at an A+ level post ASB (not impossible, he's consistently been better after the break throughout his career), the Celtics run away with things, a few things could break wrong with the others and who knows.
If nothing else, this solidifies Tatum as 1st team all-NBA again, which was hardly a lock before Embiid went down with the new voting rules (no more positions). That feels important too.
I don’t think Tatum has a shot at MVP, and I don’t think he should win over Jokic or SGA. But his ability to make any lineup or combination of players, play at elite levels? That’s as valuable as it gets, and there’s less than a handful of guys in the league who can do it.
Tatum on, Jaylen off: +16.1
Tatum on, Jaylen/White/KP off: +15.1
Tatum on, Jaylen/White/Holiday off: +11.9
Tatum on, Jaylen/KP/Holiday off: +26.3
Tatum/PP/Hauser/Al on: +22.2
Etc etc
Tatum on, Jaylen off: +16.1
Tatum on, Jaylen/White/KP off: +15.1
Tatum on, Jaylen/White/Holiday off: +11.9
Tatum on, Jaylen/KP/Holiday off: +26.3
Tatum/PP/Hauser/Al on: +22.2
Etc etc
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Recalling this exchange with @BigSoxFan back in October:
Tatum's stats last two seasons:
2022-23: 21.1 FGA, .466 FG%, .350 3ptFG%, 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 118 oRating
2023-24: 19.5 FGA, .475 FG%, .363 3ptFG%, 27.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 121 oRating
So not quite the numbers BSF suggested, but in many ways Tatum is playing better basketball this year than he did last year, even if his scoring is down (thus making some people think he isn't playing as well). Obviously adding Porzingis has given the Celtics another huge scoring option. And this year's Celtics team is much better than last year's. Tatum is a huge reason for that.
Tatum's stats last two seasons:
2022-23: 21.1 FGA, .466 FG%, .350 3ptFG%, 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 118 oRating
2023-24: 19.5 FGA, .475 FG%, .363 3ptFG%, 27.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 121 oRating
So not quite the numbers BSF suggested, but in many ways Tatum is playing better basketball this year than he did last year, even if his scoring is down (thus making some people think he isn't playing as well). Obviously adding Porzingis has given the Celtics another huge scoring option. And this year's Celtics team is much better than last year's. Tatum is a huge reason for that.
I think the opposite. The window for him winning the MVP is, what, the next 5-7 years? And in that time, he'll have to compete against a group of ascended superstars - Jokic, Embiid, Luka, Giannis - and guys ready to ascend - Wemby, SGA. Then there's the guys who could take a giant leap like Edwards, Morant, and Chet. And that says nothing about guys who, however unlikely, could catch lightning in a bottle for a season (Curry, Booker, Zion, AD, etc)
I think it'll take a lot of things to break right in order for Tatum to sneak an MVP away from the guys on that list. He's a fantastic player, but people just don't seem to view him as a guy that's the best in the league.
I think he’s getting better, and that helps. He is on a great team and that helps; a title would help more. I am dubious of Giannis winning another. I am dubious of Luka being on a good enough team in the next few years to get rewarded. I am dubious of Embiid’s health. I think the voters might tire of giving it to Jokic. I agree that Wemby and SGA are a problem, especially SGA if OKC keeps rising.
I agree his perception is not quite that of an MVP, but perceptions can change fast. And I have a certain faith that will happen.
I agree his perception is not quite that of an MVP, but perceptions can change fast. And I have a certain faith that will happen.
Get a ring and all of a sudden that regular season MVP award becomes a lot more attainable.
Unfortunately, Embiid broke the Jokic streak last year. If Jokic had won last year, there'd be a strong movement this year for him not to win 4 in a row.
His path is to win a Title first to give him that bump into the top tier of the voters minds….and then carry that momentum into the next season as the one in the group who has yet to win one. So uhhhhh, next season?
Unfortunately, Embiid broke the Jokic streak last year. If Jokic had won last year, there'd be a strong movement this year for him not to win 4 in a row.
Am I one of the few here who sees Kyrie’s presence opening up Luka’s overall game? Without having to carry all of the offensive burden his defensive effort has been greater this year than ever before.
His usage in Kyrie games is a fraction of what it is in non-Kyrie games/minutes. Luka defers to Kyrie all the time.
Tatum, get the man on permanent retainer for all season. This is like the 4th or 5th year this has happened.
Yeah, it’s kind of weird that the same thing continuously happens and no one on the Celtics staff can fix it but Hanlon can
Yup, I don't pretend to know the reasons, but JT would be the MVP every year if someone just shelled out the money to lock down the Tatum Whisperer. (I joke, but kinda not.)
Agreed
Can't they hire Hanlan's #2 and do a pow-wow on Zoom when the pocket elevates?
or just fly Hanlan into Boston every 2 weeks & double his rate
Hanlan is a specialist, an actual shooting coach. That is far different than x and o, game strategy & management, player communicating, etc.
If this $5BN enterprise doesn't have a 2nd-row shooting coach somebody needs to hire one
Can I suggest someone from Pure Sweat who understands Tatum's shooting pocket can elevate
Jeez I have somebody telling me in one thread that the players could give a crap about playing 20 minutes of basketball for half a million dollars, BUT we can't have a full-time shooting coach for a quarter of that...
They have 6 player enhancement coaches. How is one of them not a designated shooting coach?
I don’t think you guys understand how few elite shooting coaches there are in the world. I can pretty much assure than none of our 6 coaches who drill our players are in that small group.
It’s a small group but I think what everyone in here is saying is…..how the fuck have we not hired one of this small group? Especially when we have an in with the leader of the Pure Sweat group?
Two questions then:
- How much does he make?
- Why can’t he diagnose problems from tape and FaceTime Tatum or something?
It’s very likely that Hanlan wouldn’t forego the business he built to sign with one team. The financial match doesn’t appear to be there. Other private coaches have said as much….I know McClangahan spoke of how it wouldn’t make sense to take such a pay cut to work for someone else when you can control your own business and who you work with while making more.
He doesn’t run a charity. I’m sure he was aware of the issue and scheduled the sessions to work on it. Guy has to get paid.
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I once heard shooting is the easiest skill to learn at the NBA level
All kidding aside, Hanlan knows Tatum's shot inside/out and he's the only one that can diagnose his shot.
I mean look at what he has done with Brad Beal's 3pt stroke over the years
The Hanlen Tatum skills training started when JT was 13. It is unique among all the relationships between players and outside skills trainers because Hanlen was part of the creation of JT as a player. This situation where the shooting pocket wasn’t perfect, it was probably off by like an inch, something that maybe isn’t noticed on video (I’m sure Hanlen watches games and evaluates JT video in season, although he does have a more expansive client list and might now have as much time for JT).
Bi-weekly visits by Hanlen would be nice. As would triage visits whenever JT strings together a couple of bad games.
Bi-weekly visits by Hanlen would be nice. As would triage visits whenever JT strings together a couple of bad games.
Yep, this is the reasonable ask. Any stretch of two consecutive off days, we should see if he can swing by for one of them, if only to shoot the shit with JT. Between / prior to playoff rounds, too. The guy isn't going to sit around waiting for his few-times-a-year where he can make a difference to Tatum, forgoing all his other business... but we should also be his #1 customer by volume. This is about as close to actual sorcery as you get in sports.
Right. There must be some happy medium between "oh yeah I fix you once a season, gl outside of that!" and "I give up my whole business to be with you."
I didn't mean to imply that he would work exclusively with Tatum or the Celtics but maybe even the opposite; I wonder what he bills because I wonder what it's worth—seems like it could be a lot.
Like, obviously things can't granular in the way baseball can, but the teams evaluate what players are worth when considering contracts and trades. (Duh.) So, if it could be quantified, what's Tatum improving his off the dribble 3P% by 8.5% worth? Or what would it be worth over the course of a season? Especially with downstream effects on how opposing defenses have to play the Celtics? The context, of course, is Celtics projected payroll pre-trade deadline was, what? $184MM? A shade under $200MM for next season is easier math, so if the team is 0.05% better, is that worth $100K? And that's not subject to the tax either.
I'm sure that's not how the math actually works, but as a quick and dirty, damn, I'm curious what Pure Sweat bills.
I can't put a dollar value on it, but it's the difference between Tatum being ranked somewhere in the lower half of the top 10 (and Boston being a slight title favorite, or even with Denver) and Tatum being ranked 3rd overall (and Boston being an overwhelming title favorite, absent injury).
If the Celtics win it all this year, they should totally send Hanlen a gift basket. And a nice one too, like with the fruitcake and stuff. Maybe a Toblerone?
I know of a similar skills trainer who was making well over $1m annually running his own business. I’d imagine Hanlan is in that ballpark so 2x or 3x that to have work for an employer to make it worth their time I’m guessing.
@RorschachsMask is all over this, but one thing I don't think Tatum gets nearly enough credit for is his gravity. He causes lots of problems in the Celtics' screen actions because teams don't want to lose track of him, and that in turn creates open guys, switches, bad double-teams, etc.
You don't have to squint that hard to see the power forward version of what Steph brought to the peak Warriors, and the PPG and assist numbers are really similar too.
For guys who are ranked above him in the MVP race, like Luka, SGA and Giannis: could they really even bring that type of value if they wanted to? It would be a big adjustment, at the very least.
Fwiw I think Jokic does have that gravity in his own way, while also being completely ridiculous on-ball, and it's why Jokic is in his own stratosphere for me wrt value.
Put another way: if you swapped Tatum in on Dallas or OKC, would they be better or worse? I think they'd clearly be better, and a big part of that would be Tatum further unlocking guys like Jalen Williams and Kyrie, while also being versatile on defense.
You don't have to squint that hard to see the power forward version of what Steph brought to the peak Warriors, and the PPG and assist numbers are really similar too.
For guys who are ranked above him in the MVP race, like Luka, SGA and Giannis: could they really even bring that type of value if they wanted to? It would be a big adjustment, at the very least.
Fwiw I think Jokic does have that gravity in his own way, while also being completely ridiculous on-ball, and it's why Jokic is in his own stratosphere for me wrt value.
Put another way: if you swapped Tatum in on Dallas or OKC, would they be better or worse? I think they'd clearly be better, and a big part of that would be Tatum further unlocking guys like Jalen Williams and Kyrie, while also being versatile on defense.
One thing that I don’t think people really understand is the level to which Tatum warps defenses. I’ve posted the blitz percentage over the years, and Tatum is regularly blitzed right up there with Steph, prime Dame, KD, etc.
I don’t mean this in any disrespectful way to anybody else on the team, because defenses obviously worry about Jaylen/KP too, but stopping Tatum is other teams first, second, and third priority. That Iggy podcast with Evan Turner really got into how extreme it is, using Kerr and Spo as examples.
You mention defense, I read earlier that Tatum is the second best ISO defender in the league this season, per synergy. The Celtics definitely hide him some to preserve energy, but he’s usually their go to perimeter defender in the 4th quarter and crunch time.
Tatum isn’t Jokic, he will never be Jokic. But there’s something to be said for a player who makes every lineup he plays with, elite.