Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

[lovegtm]

One thing that I don’t think people really understand is the level to which Tatum warps defenses. I’ve posted the blitz percentage over the years, and Tatum is regularly blitzed right up there with Steph, prime Dame, KD, etc.

I don’t mean this in any disrespectful way to anybody else on the team, because defenses obviously worry about Jaylen/KP too, but stopping Tatum is other teams first, second, and third priority. That Iggy podcast with Evan Turner really got into how extreme it is, using Kerr and Spo as examples.

You mention defense, I read earlier that Tatum is the second best ISO defender in the league this season, per synergy. The Celtics definitely hide him some to preserve energy, but he’s usually their go to perimeter defender in the 4th quarter and crunch time.

Tatum isn’t Jokic, he will never be Jokic. But there’s something to be said for a player who makes every lineup he plays with, elite.

I wanted to take it further, and note that, even when he doesn't have the ball, Tatum is warping defenses. Joe has done a better job of unlocking that than had prior coaches, and Tatum's skill improvements also help there.

Re Jokic: he's not Jokic, but I think you can make a pretty strong case for Tatum being the 2nd-best player in the NBA.

 

[jmcc5400]

I wanted to take it further, and note that, even when he doesn't have the ball, Tatum is warping defenses. Joe has done a better job of unlocking that than had prior coaches, and Tatum's skill improvements also help there.

Re Jokic: he's not Jokic, but I think you can make a pretty strong case for Tatum being the 2nd-best player in the NBA.

He also just willingly takes to coaching. He's so much more mature as a *person* than Luka is, so much more professionally disciplined, I find it laughable the way Tatum is reflexively placed on a tier underneath Luka.

Edit: And that's not to say I don't *like* Luka.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

The Tim Bontemps straw poll is normally a really good indicator for this award and Tatum is 6th right now. It seems like theres one tier of Jokic and SGA, then GIannis and Luka.
Honestly, I think Tatum has a very, very low chance of winning MVP (like less than 1%). Mostly because even though he's the best player on the best team, I think he's being punished by all of the really good players around him which make him less "valuable"

Very late to this, but I listen to tons of NBA podcasts at work and it’s hilarious how everyone on the Celtics gets dinged for the team being good. Tatum is by far the best player on by far the best team, but he’s no MVP because the team is so good. Mazzula has great results, but he was just gifted a great team. Yet somehow White and Porzingis aren’t all stars?

 

[lexrageorge]

Luka and SGA being above Tatum in MVP voting is proof that voters still love their POINTZ.

 

[lovegtm]

Luka and SGA being above Tatum in MVP voting is proof that voters still love their POINTZ.

No no, don't you see, it's not Pointz, it's the fact that they Power Elite Offense, you unsophisticated rube.

 

[benhogan]

Luka and SGA being above Tatum in MVP voting is proof that voters still love their POINTZ.

Luka POINTZ! need an exclamation point

 

[lars10]

Luka and SGA being above Tatum in MVP voting is proof that voters still love their POINTZ.

in the interview after Chicago.. Tatum talks about how he thinks he can be the MVP.. but he also says that he's doing everything he can to help the team win.. he said that part of that is not trying to score 30 points a game. He actively thinks that it's more important for him to work within the offense...which means that he won't score as much.

 

[Auger34]

Luka and SGA being above Tatum in MVP voting is proof that voters still love their POINTZ.

That’s really not the case.

I posted it earlier but I’ll repeat it since the last few posts want to blame it all on pointz or whatever.

He’s not above them because of narrative and talent on the team. It’s going to be incredibly hard for Tatum to win a regular season award when the rest of the team around him is so good. Thats just a fact and it has nothing to do with what people are claiming here.

There are a good amount of things to criticize the media for as it relates to the Celtics. Derrick white not being in the top 100 springs to mind immediately.

IMO, Tatum not being in the top 3 for MVP isn’t one of them

EDIT: and when I say top 3 that means Giannis, SGA and Jokic. I’m not a Luka fan

 

[Euclis20]

I don't think it's unreasonable (or just about points) to have sga above tatum in the mvp ranking. Tatum is a better rebounder and defender while sga is a more efficient playmaker and scorer, but neither guy has an overwhelming edge there. The Celtics are solidly better than okc, but I think it's fair to say Shai has been more important to their regular season success than tatum has to the Celtics thus far. Tatum's biggest advantage is in his playoff experience, which should be irrelevant when discussing the 2024 mvp.

Luka on the other hand...he's a genuine defensive liability, his team is likely in the play in games, and he's got a legit (if potentially ill fitting) co star in kyrie. It's not so much POINTS!!! as it is the media and general public not even attempting to understand the importance of defense. I'm positive that if the mavs were a top 2-3 seed, Luka would be the overwhelming favorite for mvp, or at least co favorite with jokic.

 

[themuddychicken]

The "Tatum has a great team" argument against his MVP case really annoys me when someone then places Luka above him, since they're ignoring that Luka is a big part of the problem in Dallas. Dallas has had talent, but talent either does not work alongside Luka (Porzingis) or isn't able to develop alongside him (Brunson). Players improving the moment they leave Dallas is a meme at this point.

Would Luka be able to play alongside Brown the way Tatum does? I don't think we should just assume that he could. Meanwhile, I feel very confident saying that White would not have improved alongside Luka the same way he has improved on Tatum's team, where he has been given an impressive amount of leeway as a third guy. We already know that Luka can't play with Porzingis. And we know that he couldn't accept a reduced role on offense in order to play better defense in the way that both Tatum and Brown have done.

Luka is a great player, but I don't think it's too high a bar to expect an MVP to play well with others. And I'm not asking for Luka to elevate teammates the way LeBron does, it'd be a great start for him to simply not make everyone around him worse.

 

[lovegtm]

I don't think it's unreasonable (or just about points) to have sga above tatum in the mvp ranking. Tatum is a better rebounder and defender while sga is a more efficient playmaker and scorer, but neither guy has an overwhelming edge there. The Celtics are solidly better than okc, but I think it's fair to say Shai has been more important to their regular season success than tatum has to the Celtics thus far. Tatum's biggest advantage is in his playoff experience, which should be irrelevant when discussing the 2024 mvp.

Luka on the other hand...he's a genuine defensive liability, his team is likely in the play in games, and he's got a legit (if potentially ill fitting) co star in kyrie. It's not so much POINTS!!! as it is the media and general public not even attempting to understand the importance of defense. I'm positive that if the mavs were a top 2-3 seed, Luka would be the overwhelming favorite for mvp, or at least co favorite with jokic.

With Luka, I agree but would go farther than "people don't understand defense."

I'd argue they don't understand offense, and conflate heliocentric+TS%+assists with "must be amazing", and ignore the difficulty Luka poses to building a great offense, because he doesn't maximize the value of other scorers playing with him.

Not to pick on people here, and I don't even remember who it was, but someone said "Luka is a top-10 offense by himself."

Nope, he's a #15 offense by himself, and can scrape into the top 10 if you give him an elite scorer like Brunson or Kyrie. Even then, he's way off the heights that Tatum-led teams consistently hit.

 

[SteveF]

Well, Luka isn't guarding Isaiah Hartenstein to turn off the water on Brunson PnRs, that's for fucking sure.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

With Luka, I agree but would go farther than "people don't understand defense."

I'd argue they don't understand offense, and conflate heliocentric+TS%+assists with "must be amazing", and ignore the difficulty Luka poses to building a great offense, because he doesn't maximize the value of other scorers playing with him.

Not to pick on people here, and I don't even remember who it was, but someone said "Luka is a top-10 offense by himself."

Nope, he's a #15 offense by himself, and can scrape into the top 10 if you give him an elite scorer like Brunson or Kyrie. Even then, he's way off the heights that Tatum-led teams consistently hit.

Also, worth considering difference between regular season and playoffs with Luka. To me, being higher on Luka than many here AND also someone who feels Tatum is clearly a better player right now (and quite likely always will be) what is intriguing about Luka isn't the regular season version, on which I agree wtih lovegtm above. Luka bogs down his team over course of a season, has yet to really be a great team offensive player, is mediocre and inconsistent defensively, and seems to consistently have issues with teammnates at a low level.

And...the single most valuable NBA skill since about 1980 has been the ability to score efficiently at volume against the best defenses in the 4th quarter. For all the other things he did, that was Jordan's greatest skill. It was the ability to do that which moved Magic up to the MVP discussion. It's what made Shaq dominant in playoffs even as he got fatter and took more games/plays off. It's what makes Curry and LBJ the scariest guys around today. On that specific capability, Luka's demonstrated peak is higher than any other player today, imo (forward looking). He has shown he can be a spectacular, one-of-couple-best-in-the-game offensive fulcrum in the playoffs. That's something unique and impactful and that Tatum likely will never be. I know people will dispute that, and Luka has really only shown that in one season---but it's there, and it does matter in the big picture at least for me.

Now, for that skill to generate championships you need to pair it with a lot of others - and you all have highlighted (and I agree with) the many gaps Luka has on those other things. I am increasingly of the view he will be a great player who never solves the rest---a different-profile version of Dominique Wilkins, who wins but never really is dominant when it counts because he plays a certain way. But the reason to talk about what Luke can do solo is that apex ability in the single most important capability an NBA player can have.

What I love about Tatum's game is he's at the level below that as a scorer - but still spectacular - and has built everything around that capability you want, from defense (still improving) to consistency, passing (also still improving), flexibility around role, and leadership. He has a little growing up to do still around calls and occasional hero-ball, but the package is impressive and improving....even if the shot-creation skills is not quite at Luka's level, the rest are mostly at a different level than Luka is likely to ever develop.

 

[bigq]

And...the single most valuable NBA skill since about 1980 has been the ability to score efficiently at volume against the best defenses in the 4th quarter.

Just curious how one would look this up?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Just curious how one would look this up?

It's subjective, essentially. I think there's been research about (as I recall) which characteristics correlate best with playoff success; on that, I do think there's been much more recent research that suggests an overall shift from defense to offense over the past dozen or so years. I picked the beginning of the Bird/Magic era in part because that's the beginning of what I'd consider modern basketball (with the Steph Warrriors representing the start of the current pace and space evolution) and also because I think it fits player-wise to show the shift from earlier eras where, in point of fact, the team with the best defense (often the Celtics, but also the 70s Knicks and others) tended to win out.

I'd step back from the player names and ask this: isn't the ability to score late what we all think about first when we talk about critical playoff moments? I think it is and has been, rightly, for a long time. That doesn't diminish reality it takes other things to get there. But I'd be a little surprised if there weren't general agreement on that.

 

[bigq]

It's subjective, essentially. I think there's been research about (as I recall) which characteristics correlate best with playoff success; on that, I do think there's been much more recent research that suggests an overall shift from defense to offense over the past dozen or so years. I picked the beginning of the Bird/Magic era in part because that's the beginning of what I'd consider modern basketball (with the Steph Warrriors representing the start of the current pace and space evolution) and also because I think it fits player-wise to show the shift from earlier eras where, in point of fact, the team with the best defense (often the Celtics, but also the 70s Knicks and others) tended to win out.

I'd step back from the player names and ask this: isn't the ability to score late what we all think about first when we talk about critical playoff moments? I think it is and has been, rightly, for a long time. That doesn't diminish reality it takes other things to get there. But I'd be a little surprised if there weren't general agreement on that.

There is certainly subjectivity at play but isn't there data available to quantify what we are talking about?

I agree that ability to generate points when it is late in a close game is important. Clutch scoring is a useful if imperfect proxy for that. I hadn't previously thought of looking at that by year for individual players based on strength of opposing defense. I think your suggestion of looking at playoff performance is a good way to approximate that.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

There is certainly subjectivity at play but isn't there data available to quantify what we are talking about?

I agree that ability to generate points when it is late in a close game is important. Clutch scoring is a useful if imperfect proxy for that. I hadn't previously thought of looking at that by year for individual players based on strength of opposing defense. I think your suggestion of looking at playoff performance is a good way to approximate that.

I don't have the quant skills to do the math, honestly. Nor likely the time/resources (e.g. databases). And I could be wrong - but that's been my subjective view and how I read many others as well. If it's a good discussion---we could break it out and see what others feel

 

[lovegtm]

I don't have the quant skills to do the math, honestly. Nor likely the time/resources (e.g. databases). And I could be wrong - but that's been my subjective view and how I read many others as well. If it's a good discussion---we could break it out and see what others feel

I agree with you that it's a super valuable skill. I don't know that I'd say doing it in the 4th quarter in particular is the thing: it's more being able to create high-value offense against locked-in defenses in general.

Jokic is the best at it imo--he can generate very high-percentage offense for himself, and his passing has crazy equity even against loaded-up defenses. We've seen this play out in 4 straight rounds en route to a title now, as opposed to Luka's shorter runs, so I'd put Nikola at a tier significantly above.

While it's the most valuable skill, it's not the only skill, and you still have to play basketball in the playoffs. Guys like Jordan and LeBron and Steph and Kawhi are great because they bring so much else in addition to that skill. Luka really struggles with everything that's not that, and so I just can't get to rating him as high as you'd think, even in the playoffs.

 

[Auger34]

So, my feelings for Tatum are complicated.

I think he’s underrated by the national media. If we are doing a fantasy draft where we are all starting our own franchises, I think he’s top 3 (and I feel pretty strongly about that). He’s a complete player with no weaknesses. I mean, the only thing he’s just “good” at are the step back 3’s.

But I read the posts on this board and I can’t help but feel that he’s overrated by most posters here, and in a pretty dismissive way of anyone who disagrees at that. I consume a lot of NBA media, have friends who are very into the NBA and I can’t blame anyone who doesn’t have him top 3 RIGHT NOW (I’m not going into MVP voting because that has to do with narrative) I definitely don’t agree but I don’t think it means anyone who thinks that is some sort of idiotic moron (which is how I read people here when they bring up POINTZ or whatever).

IMO, IFHEALTHY, this team HAS to make the finals. If they don’t, then I have to knock him down a notch. If he’s the level of player that posters here VERY strongly think then that’s what he has to do. No ifs ands or buts. No excuses, no “well look at this stat about this”. It may not be fair but that’s just how it is

 

[lars10]

So, my feelings for Tatum are complicated.

I think he’s underrated by the national media. If we are doing a fantasy draft where we are all starting our own franchises, I think he’s top 3 (and I feel pretty strongly about that). He’s a complete player with no weaknesses. I mean, the only thing he’s just “good” at are the step back 3’s.

But I read the posts on this board and I can’t help but feel that he’s overrated by most posters here, and in a pretty dismissive way of anyone who disagrees at that. I consume a lot of NBA media, have friends who are very into the NBA and I can’t blame anyone who doesn’t have him top 3 RIGHT NOW (I’m not going into MVP voting because that has to do with narrative) I definitely don’t agree but I don’t think it means anyone who thinks that is some sort of idiotic moron (which is how I read people here when they bring up POINTZ or whatever).

IMO, IFHEALTHY, this team HAS to make the finals. If they don’t, then I have to knock him down a notch. If he’s the level of player that posters here VERY strongly think then that’s what he has to do. No ifs ands or buts. No excuses, no “well look at this stat about this”. It may not be fair but that’s just how it is

By overrated do you mean people think he's one or two? He's the best player on the best team.. but Jokic is better.. these kind of arguments though are always so difficult really.. because Tatum is being asked to do something very different than Jokic is.. or Embiid or Giannis. His assists this year though seem to be something he's been working on.. and to have a star that is often looking for the best shot even though it's not always his own is a great thing to have.. his teammates and coach have voiced that what he's doing this year is underrated and under appreciated.

If the C's win this year Tatum will have his first championship at 26 ahead of the pace of other NBA greats for their first.. let's hope they get one this year.

 

[lovegtm]

So, my feelings for Tatum are complicated.

I think he’s underrated by the national media. If we are doing a fantasy draft where we are all starting our own franchises, I think he’s top 3 (and I feel pretty strongly about that). He’s a complete player with no weaknesses. I mean, the only thing he’s just “good” at are the step back 3’s.

But I read the posts on this board and I can’t help but feel that he’s overrated by most posters here, and in a pretty dismissive way of anyone who disagrees at that. I consume a lot of NBA media, have friends who are very into the NBA and I can’t blame anyone who doesn’t have him top 3 RIGHT NOW (I’m not going into MVP voting because that has to do with narrative) I definitely don’t agree but I don’t think it means anyone who thinks that is some sort of idiotic moron (which is how I read people here when they bring up POINTZ or whatever).

IMO, IFHEALTHY, this team HAS to make the finals. If they don’t, then I have to knock him down a notch. If he’s the level of player that posters here VERY strongly think then that’s what he has to do. No ifs ands or buts. No excuses, no “well look at this stat about this”. It may not be fair but that’s just how it is

I agree that if they miss the Finals healthy, that reflects very poorly on Tatum.

On the other hand, he's made the Finals un-healthy and barely missed the Finals un-healthy in the last 2 years. And instead of giving him credit for that, people are acting like one-dimensional players like Luka, who have achieved far, far, far less in their careers are obviously better because of Pointz.

It's the same thing with SGA: it's like even though he is the same age as Tatum, because he's had massively less success in his career, he's somehow younger or more promising. Also Pointz.

People are mostly reacting against that. I'm pretty clear that I think Jokic is a much better player, and I think healthy Kawhi and Steph are probably better as well. This is more about younger guys who (imo) are worse players getting credit for Pointz and less prior success.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I don’t think Tatum is having a top 4 season, so I don’t think he should win MVP lol. But more important than that, Jokic and maybe Steph are the only people I’d rather have in a playoff series. His ability to manipulate defenses with or without the ball is insane, like @lovegtm has been saying. The Knicks game last night was a great example, he was third on the team in usage, but it was because the Knicks were throwing the kitchen sink at him. So the Celtics just took advantage of that by using him off ball, and the rim was wide open for everyone else.

His last 14 games have been peak Tatum. 28/9/6 on a 63% TS, almost a 3:1 AST/TO. His game has become incredibly cerebral, and he’s just unstoppable at the rim lol.

 

[snowmanny]

IMO, IFHEALTHY, this team HAS to make the finals. If they don’t, then I have to knock him down a notch. If he’s the level of player that posters here VERY strongly think then that’s what he has to do. No ifs ands or buts. No excuses, no “well look at this stat about this”. It may not be fair but that’s just how it is

The only exception I will extend would be if they lost to Milwaukee with Tatum playing well but Giannis going off. He's currently a notch below Giannis so no change there. It would say something about the team though.

 

[Auger34]

I agree that if they miss the Finals healthy, that reflects very poorly on Tatum.

On the other hand, he's made the Finals un-healthy and barely missed the Finals un-healthy in the last 2 years. And instead of giving him credit for that, people are acting like one-dimensional players like Luka, who have achieved far, far, far less in their careers are obviously better because of Pointz.

It's the same thing with SGA: it's like even though he is the same age as Tatum, because he's had massively less success in his career, he's somehow younger or more promising. Also Pointz.

People are mostly reacting against that. I'm pretty clear that I think Jokic is a much better player, and I think healthy Kawhi and Steph are probably better as well. This is more about younger guys who (imo) are worse players getting credit for Pointz and less prior success.

I’m not arguing about Luka. I’ve made my feelings clear about Luka. I was the first on the corner of Luka making his teammates worse on this board.

The 2-3 players above Tatum are SGA-Giannis and Jokic. The SGA thing isn’t that complicated and, as a very smart poster, I am surprised it’s not clear to you. He’s the undisputed leader of a young team that’s over performing. He’s having a fantastic season as well. It’s not mouth breathers looking at the points column. There are many reasons to think that SGA is better than Tatum this year

I don’t like Giannis personally. I think watching him is like watching a bull in a china shop who gets all of the calls. But, he’s a fucking great player. He’s a better bet to get a bucket than Tatum. He’s a better defender than Tatum. He’s a much worse shooter but overall, I think he’s better than Tatum by a little bit.

Jokic isn’t even a discussion.

This is just agree to disagree territory. You and @RorschachsMask are smart posters but none of what you say or one game stats you cite are going to change my mind. I watched that Knicks game and there’s literally 0% chance either of you are going to tell me that Tatum was actually the best player on the floor and enabled everyone else by going 7-15, 2-8 from 3, with the most turnovers on the team by a mile (4 to 1).


And to get on my own soapbox here, Tatum has always been the infallible son of the Celtics since he was drafted. (I have no interest in arguing this either). I am a Duke fan and I’ve thought it’s been over the top since Day 1.
After the Warrior finals, The National media turned on Tatu, and to be clear this turning was no worse or different than what they do to anyone else. But Celtics fans took it personal and that increased the Tatum worship. I mean dig up the posts during that finals and after. The amount of excuses for Tatum was fucking wild. If you just read certain posters on here you would think Tatum had to get limbs amputated after that series. Or that he was Willis Reed during the games, so hurt he should clearly not be playing. People aren’t reacting to POINTZ or anything that you can pin down like that. They’re reacting to their teams favorite player getting less respect than he should and conflating it with something easy to cite to not just admit that .

And, to be fair, the fact that the refs don’t give #0 the respect he deserves adds to it


EDIT: this isn’t scientific at all but it’s a good litmus test for me on my opinions. If I listen to Zach Lowe, et al and text with my friends and my reaction is “I don’t think they’re giving Tatum enough credit” while simultaneously reading this board and going “man…I think the Tatum love is pretty overboard” I feel pretty comfortable with my position


EDIT 2: the fact that he’s made it that far unhealthy speaks to the quality ofy the team not Tatum being incredibly good while injured

 

[lovegtm]

You seem to have a lot of feelings about Jayson Tatum, and it's hard to discuss him when you're not just talking with me, but 10 other posters whose opinions you are conflating with mine.

I think there are players who are better than him in the league, but also worse ones who are rated higher because of narrative ("exciting young team", SGA) and, yes, Pointz (Luka).

I think he played poorly in the Finals and that injury was some, but not all of that.

I think they win game 7 last year if he can walk.

I think if you look at the teams he's had over the years they've been good but not amazing, and he's consistently taken those teams much farther than most of his peers have taken similar ones, with the exception of Jimmy Butler.

I think he does things that make his 7-16, 2-8 games more valuable than they would be for a similar game from Giannis, Luka, or SGA, even if he could be better in those games.

 

[Auger34]

You seem to have a lot of feelings about Jayson Tatum, and it's hard to discuss him when you're not just talking with me, but 10 other posters whose opinions you are conflating with mine.

I think there are players who are better than him in the league, but also worse ones who are rated higher because of narrative ("exciting young team", SGA) and, yes, Pointz (Luka).

I think he played poorly in the Finals and that injury was some, but not all of that.

I think they win game 7 last year if he can walk.

I think if you look at the teams he's had over the years they've been good but not amazing, and he's consistently taken those teams much farther than most of his peers have taken similar ones, with the exception of Jimmy Butler.

I think he does things that make his 7-16, 2-8 games more valuable than they would be for a similar game from Giannis, Luka, or SGA, even if he could be better in those games.

All of that is incredibly fair. With that being said, you’re conflating me with others when you mention Luka.

Second to last paragraph, I really don’t think so. I mean Giannis took the Celtics to 7 with no Middleton. Do you really think the Celtics lose that series if Giannis is on the team instead of Tatum?
If you do, then we completely disagree there. And I am NOT a fan of Giannis at all. I think he’s kind of a shitheel who gets away with his act in the media due to his story…but the guy is a fucking great player

Your last paragraph, maybe? I mean, that’s such a deep dive that neither of us cold possibly know the answer to that.

 

[ManicCompression]

The value of Tatum seems to be that he can have those bad shooting games and still find ways to impact the game (while also stepping aside enough to let his costars like Brown, Porzingis, Jrue, and White shine).

He's probably the most well-rounded player in the game right now, but he's not the best at any one thing. SGA is probably the best driver in the game, Jokic the best offensive player, Luka the best scorer, Giannis the best battering ram, Steph the bet shooter, etc. Some of these guys are more skilled than Tatum, others more athletic, but what he lacks in excellence he makes up for by not really having a weakness.

I don't know what his NBA "ranking" should be or whatever, or if he'll ever have the right narrative to win the MVP, but just like Jokic and Steph and Giannis, he's capable of being on the best player on a championship team if he's surrounded by the right pieces. None of those guys had a ring until they had the right mix of teammates to augment them, and hopefully they finally have the right mix around Tatum. Keep in mind that he's the same age as Steph when he first one, Giannis when he first won, and younger than Jokic. If he won a title in the years leading up to this, that would've been an historic accomplishment.

 

[benhogan]

I guess I've been a Tatum Enabler. Many on this board, myself included, have praised JT (along with KP & White this season) while criticizing Jaylen Brown, which probably irks @Auger34

As far as the MVP race, Jokic is the best player in the NBA by a healthy amount, no argument there. He deserves it, probably deserved it last year. BUT the NBA Media (voters) are desperate to add other MVPs.

For Tatum to eventually be an MVP winner he'll have to win a Championship & get his 3pt shooting to 40%. AND the only way JT gets to that level is to hunt slightly more C&S 3s, which means more passing, relocating, & moving without the ball. When initiating the offense he needs to think/act more like Steph & less like Harden.

Tatum has highly skilled offensive teammates around him, so the must-go solo/dribble coma/excessive PU3s is not only inefficient basketball but optically looks bad. PLUS it gives the number-crunching voters a legitimate reason to not vote for him.

The can't win playoff games is a mind-numbingly dumb take since he's won plenty of playoff games. Anyways that will vanquish after he wins a CHiP. The media narrative will be his past playoffs were all a lead-up to him finally maturing into a Champion.

He'll get the Best Player on the Best Team votes, without counting numbers, like a few players have done in the past. He'll just have to be a little more efficient (maybe KPs efficiency awakening will rub off)

 

[lovegtm]

...
Second to last paragraph, I really don’t think so. I mean Giannis took the Celtics to 7 with no Middleton. Do you really think the Celtics lose that series if Giannis is on the team instead of Tatum?
If you do, then we completely disagree there. And I am NOT a fan of Giannis at all. I think he’s kind of a shitheel who gets away with his act in the media due to his story…but the guy is a fucking great player
...

Yeah, I have been thinking about these types of questions a lot. My current answer is:

2017-2023: I drastically overrated Jayson Tatum's teammates because he made them look a lot better. This showed up in on/off, and in the eye tests. For example, that 2019-20 team that lost to Miami was kind of not great, in hindsight. Jaylen wasn't making people around him better in the way he does now, Kemba was awful, and Smart was a great defender who was pretty flawed offensively. Was the 2022 supporting cast, (with an injured TL and DWhite and Jaylen who weren't as good then) that much better than Milwaukee's without Middleton? I think they were better, but the gap is overstated imo.

2023-2024: TBD. Tatum fits incredibly well with his teammates, and clearly accentuates them in a way I think is probably very valuable. At the same time, the on/offs and eye tests show that Brad's strategy of "Acquire All The Good Players" has been very effective, and the overall non-Tatum team quality is much higher. This also includes Jaylen and DWhite being significantly improved players this year afaict.

I don't live or die based on how Jayson Tatum is perceived, and I've been pretty quick to give a lot of the credit for this year to the overall talent and the DWhite/Jaylen level-ups. I just try to be fair, and I'm starting to think I swung too far from giving credit to Tatum in the early part of this season, and also for past seasons.

 

[bakahump]

Whats up with Tatums Wrist? Been this way for a couple years.....but every so often he will be rubbing it during the game.

Is it remnants of the wrist injury a couple years ago?

Obviously its not bothering him too much. But it does always worry me a bit.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Whats up with Tatums Wrist? Been this way for a couple years.....but every so often he will be rubbing it during the game.

Is it remnants of the wrist injury a couple years ago?

Obviously its not bothering him too much. But it does always worry me a bit.

It’s his other wrist this year, oddly enough. Was always the left, this year he has tape on the right.

I’m far from an expert, but this seems more like a nuisance than an actual problem.

 

[benhogan]

Whats up with Tatums Wrist? Been this way for a couple years.....but every so often he will be rubbing it during the game.

Is it remnants of the wrist injury a couple years ago?

Obviously its not bothering him too much. But it does always worry me a bit.

The combination of slamming the ball (wrist against rim) +
falling/supporting himself when he hits the floor does a number on the wrists

 

[Kliq]

I've been out of the loop over the last several days due to a ski trip. I was listening to Simmons and Russillo this afternoon and they mentioned that Jokic, Giannis, Embiid and Luka are the obvious top four players in the league, and then discussed Curry and SGA in that class as well.

I've wanted to say something about Tatum and the disrespect he is getting in these kinds of conversations, and it was good to come back into this thread and read the conversation that you all are having, because I feel the same way.

SGA is a very good player who is having an outstanding season and deserves to be in the MVP conversation, I suppose, but how he is automatically leap-frogged Tatum in terms of overall value as an NBA player has been frustrating. Tatum taking the collar for lack of postseason success is mind-boggling when you see players like Embiid (a serial underperformer) and SGA (virtually no playoff resume at all) being tossed around this kind of conversation.

To me, Tatum is having the best season of his career, and I think a lot of people that watch the Celtics closely will agree. He has evolved as a player since last year, seamlessly integrating with better offensive pieces and orchestrating the offense in a variety of ways. Some of you mention this, but it's a weird thing where Tatum is getting dinged for having such good teammates, but a major reason Tatum has such good teammates is that Tatum has enabled his teammates to reach their potential. Look at Porzingis when he played with Luka, or how clunky the Giannis/Lillard pairing has been at times this season. It's not an automatic thing that great players will gel together and get the most out of one another.

This season, Tatum has reminded me a lot of LeBron. His ability to move the ball, help get other teammates involved in the offense, and pick his spots when his team needs him the most, has been the biggest evolution he has made. He is such a better passer than he was even last year, and he's gotten great at reading double-teams, knowing where the help is coming from, and getting the ball quickly to the open man to attack that decision.

Tatum is averaging 27 ppg, and I think he could easily, EASILY average 32+ ppg if he wanted too. All he would need to do is be a little more selfish. But his team wouldn't be nearly as a good and the fact that Tatum understands that already at this stage of his career is pretty remarkable and shouldn't be taken for granted. A lot of players never figure that out.

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/WSpooney/status/1762287570493325711

 

[jmcc5400]

His ability to move the ball, help get other teammates involved in the offense, and pick his spots when his team needs him the most, has been the biggest evolution he has made. He is such a better passer than he was even last year, and he's gotten great at reading double-teams, knowing where the help is coming from, and getting the ball quickly to the open man to attack that decision.

This isn't really quantifiable, but the guy I have the most confidence in defensively when a stop is needed is Tatum, notwithstanding the presence of deserved all-defensive team members like Jrue and White on the team. We saw it the OKC game when he locked up Shai. On Saturday night, he bothered Brunson quite a bit when he switched on to him. When he locks in on defense he can be downright Pippenesque. Also loved his anticipation that Hart would try to kick to the corner on his coast to coast, which led to an easy steal.

 

[benhogan]

This isn't really quantifiable, but the guy I have the most confidence in defensively when a stop is needed is Tatum, notwithstanding the presence of deserved all-defensive team members like Jrue and White on the team. We saw it the OKC game when he locked up Shai. On Saturday night, he bothered Brunson quite a bit when he switched on to him. When he locks in on defense he can be downright Pippenesque. Also loved his anticipation that Hart would try to kick to the corner on his coast to coast, which led to an easy steal.

+1. Agreed.

I've always felt that in the half-court (when locked in) he's the best on-ball, perimeter defender in the NBA. He just can't operate like that during the regular season. BUT hope CJM puts him on the opposing alpha guard in the playoffs.

 

[Auger34]

I've been out of the loop over the last several days due to a ski trip. I was listening to Simmons and Russillo this afternoon and they mentioned that Jokic, Giannis, Embiid and Luka are the obvious top four players in the league, and then discussed Curry and SGA in that class as well.

Russillo started this by saying that those 4 were completely obvious and asked if he would put Curry or SGA next. Simmons said that he would have SGA ahead of Luka….

It’s fucking crazy that a supposed NBA expert who watches most of the games (which is what they both think of themselves as) would have Luka and Embiid as top 5 “locks”.

Embiid is always either injured or out of shape or both….and his playoff resume is pathetic.
Luka has a magical ability to drag down his co-stars and defends like a drunk stumbling out of a bar

 

[Euclis20]

This isn't really quantifiable, but the guy I have the most confidence in defensively when a stop is needed is Tatum, notwithstanding the presence of deserved all-defensive team members like Jrue and White on the team. We saw it the OKC game when he locked up Shai. On Saturday night, he bothered Brunson quite a bit when he switched on to him. When he locks in on defense he can be downright Pippenesque. Also loved his anticipation that Hart would try to kick to the corner on his coast to coast, which led to an easy steal.

The Celtics were putting him on Hartenstein in the 2nd half to try to stifle the pick and roll with Brunson, and it worked perfectly. The only other player in the MVP race that could be used like that would be Giannis, but for whatever reason the Bucks have always been hesitant to take Giannis out of his usual role (if they had lost that series, the Bucks refusing to match him up directly with Durant in that epic ECSF a few years ago would've been an anchor around his legacy). It will be unappreciated until they win a title.

 

[lovegtm]

The Celtics were putting him on Hartenstein in the 2nd half to try to stifle the pick and roll with Brunson, and it worked perfectly. The only other player in the MVP race that could be used like that would be Giannis, but for whatever reason the Bucks have always been hesitant to take Giannis out of his usual role (if they had lost that series, the Bucks refusing to match him up directly with Durant in that epic ECSF a few years ago would've been an anchor around his legacy). It will be unappreciated until they win a title.

People want to automatically put Giannis ahead of Tatum defensively, and he probably is, but one reason the Bucks are hesitant to take Giannis out of his usual role is that he's a lot better as a roamer than he is guarding smaller guys and quick wings, from what I've seen.

Tatum probably is behind Giannis in overall defensive value, but he's a good bit better at that particular skill afaict.

 

[Kliq]

This isn't really quantifiable, but the guy I have the most confidence in defensively when a stop is needed is Tatum, notwithstanding the presence of deserved all-defensive team members like Jrue and White on the team. We saw it the OKC game when he locked up Shai. On Saturday night, he bothered Brunson quite a bit when he switched on to him. When he locks in on defense he can be downright Pippenesque. Also loved his anticipation that Hart would try to kick to the corner on his coast to coast, which led to an easy steal.

Yes, another LeBron quality as well.

 

[snowmanny]

Russillo started this by saying that those 4 were completely obvious and asked if he would put Curry or SGA next. Simmons said that he would have SGA ahead of Luka….

It’s fucking crazy that a supposed NBA expert who watches most of the games (which is what they both think of themselves as) would have Luka and Embiid as top 5 “locks”.

Embiid is always either injured or out of shape or both….and his playoff resume is pathetic.
Luka has a magical ability to drag down his co-stars and defends like a drunk stumbling out of a bar

I would definitely take Jokic and Giannis over Tatum for the 2024-25 season. I would definitely not take Curry or Embiid. I probably would not take the other two.

 

[Cornboy14]

SGA is a very good player who is having an outstanding season and deserves to be in the MVP conversation, I suppose, but how he is automatically leap-frogged Tatum in terms of overall value as an NBA player has been frustrating.

I love Tatum, but SGA has deservedly jumped him. I don’t think it’s particularly close. 55% field goal percentage from a guard who doesn’t turn the ball over, gets to the line, and plays great defense. I don’t see a good argument to put Tatum above him, unless you really value past playoff performance.

 

[PJ Martinez]

I love Tatum, but SGA has deservedly jumped him. I don’t think it’s particularly close. 55% field goal percentage from a guard who doesn’t turn the ball over, gets to the line, and plays great defense. I don’t see a good argument to put Tatum above him, unless you really value past playoff performance.

Does he play great defense? He's getting a lot of steals, but I've heard mixed things from smart commentators (and don't watch enough Thunder games to have an opinion myself).

He's putting up incredible numbers offensively, of course, and the team's defensive rating is very good. I suspect if the MVP vote happened today he and Jokic would probably finish 1-2 in some order.

 

[Kliq]

I love Tatum, but SGA has deservedly jumped him. I don’t think it’s particularly close. 55% field goal percentage from a guard who doesn’t turn the ball over, gets to the line, and plays great defense. I don’t see a good argument to put Tatum above him, unless you really value past playoff performance.

SGA's post-season resume is non-existent. Maybe he has a killer run this year, but its hard for me to rate him higher as an overall player when we've never really seen him in a major game.

 

[nighthob]

I’m not arguing about Luka. I’ve made my feelings clear about Luka. I was the first on the corner of Luka making his teammates worse on this board.

No offense, but since his rookie year I’ve been saying that Luka is like Allen Iverson, I love watching him play offense… for someone else. Because if he were playing for one of my teams I’d want to kill him.

 

[lars10]

People want to automatically put Giannis ahead of Tatum defensively, and he probably is, but one reason the Bucks are hesitant to take Giannis out of his usual role is that he's a lot better as a roamer than he is guarding smaller guys and quick wings, from what I've seen.

Tatum probably is behind Giannis in overall defensive value, but he's a good bit better at that particular skill afaict.

Imagine if Tatum was given the same whistle as Giannis.. on either end of the floor. Giannis is getting 11 FTs a game.. you basically can’t touch him. Meanwhile guys like Hart or whatever Heat player are allowed to basically do whatever they want to Tatum, with zero calls, and he still scores. Tatum is getting 6.8 FTs per game.. it’s a pretty absurd difference. I get that Giannis drives more, but if you watch the games, you can see why Tatum gets frustrated.. he’s just not treated like the star that he is.

 

[RorschachsMask]

SGA has clearly had a better season than Tatum, statistically speaking. But I need to see him as the guy in the playoffs before I rank him ahead, because that’s where your weaknesses really get amplified. He’s never seen consistent coverage like the Heat, Warriors, Raps, etc have thrown at Tatum in the postseason.

 

[Montana Fan]

SGA has clearly had a better season than Tatum, statistically speaking. But I need to see him as the guy in the playoffs before I rank him ahead, because that’s where your weaknesses really get amplified. He’s never seen consistent coverage like the Heat, Warriors, Raps, etc have thrown at Tatum in the postseason.

RM, thoughts on regular season awards versus postseason? Since there is no post season MOP award, I’d rather JT win the Finals MVP than regular season MVP. I care so much less about the regular season MVP award than I used to. Embid winning it is example 1. Great regular season numbers, zero postseason success. Congrats JoJo.

Tatum being unanimously viewed as postseason MOP would change everything.

 

[RorschachsMask]

RM, thoughts on regular season awards versus postseason? Since there is no post season MOP award, I’d rather JT win the Finals MVP than regular season MVP. I care so much less about the regular season MVP award than I used to. Embid winning it is example 1. Great regular season numbers, zero postseason success. Congrats JoJo.

Tatum being unanimously viewed as postseason MOP would change everything.

I could not care any less about him winning MVP lol. First team all nba for the third straight year will make a statement, as it’s pretty rare.

I fully expect him to have a monster playoffs, this whole regular season has been everyone figuring out their fit off of Tatum, and the playoff is where that will really show. ECF/Finals MVP over regular season, all day.

 

[lovegtm]

I could not care any less about him winning MVP lol. First team all nba for the third straight year will make a statement, as it’s pretty rare.

I fully expect him to have a monster playoffs, this whole regular season has been everyone figuring out their fit off of Tatum, and the playoff is where that will really show. ECF/Finals MVP over regular season, all day.

Yeah, I think most people here are talking about playoffs, not regular season, when we discuss player rankings and preferences.

The regular season is a fun extended practice session where the opponent tries pretty hard. I love that the Celtics have been treating it like that this year, as opposed to Thib'ing it.