This is where the Celtics improved roster construction has really unlocked Tatum's game. The Celtics have 4 guys who are either very dangerous in space or elite shooters or both (Brown, White, Smart, PP, maayyybbeee can include Grant here). This lets the Celtics choose who to set the small/small or like-sized screens with, and in turn forces the choice of blitz or let Tatum attack a weaker defender. The Celtics nearly always have 2-3 of these other guys on the floor.
It's interesting that we all have pined for more shooting (still do), but a lot of the Celtics offensive success is having good scorers/decision makers attacking defenses that Tatum has scrambled just by running a simple screen.
As you noted, NBA coaches don't seem comfortable
at all when Tatum draws a weaker defender, hence the blitzing. Even guys like Luka aren't this much of an emergency when they get a weaker guy on the perimeter, which probably accounts partially for the increased attention and better impact offensive metrics for Tatum (he does much better in Darko on offense than Luka this year, which shocked me).
What changes about this in the playoffs? What are the counters?
- Blitzing. Just doesn't work at this point, since Tatum has seen it so much and is so tall.
- Tell the primary defender to just stick with Tatum no matter what. Tatum has gotten really, really good at taking the advantage the screen gives him and then attacking to force other defenders to help, at which point he's able to easily read what the help opens up.
- Be really good at switching anything. The only team in the league that really has the personnel to do this is the team that Tatum currently plays for, although Miami, Milwaukee and Toronto (unlikely matchup) can do it in certain lineups.
- Switch the screen to eliminate the initial advantage, and then shade help towards the weaker defender now on Tatum. That's probably what we'd see a lot of against Milwaukee, but it's tough, because Tatum is getting good at setting up teammates for drives when their defender is shading to the nail or into the paint.
I don't mean to say Tatum is unstoppable; he'll have bad games, and he'll need to be able to destroy switches that are only moderate advantages. But I'm not sure that that's different from any other offensive superstar outside of Durant; there are ways to slow them all down in a playoff setting.
We only have one playoff series with Tatum as The Guy--the Brooklyn series last year. He was really good in that, and that was with an atrocious supporting cast. Given that, and the clear improvements he's made sense, I'm not sure why he's not seen as a primary offensive engine. I suspect the reason is TS% + assist numbers.