No need to decide yet. It would be prudent to let the market develop to a degree, see who the alternatives are, what they cost, and THEN see how much sense another year of JT @ 15M makes. Of course we could miss the boat, but I'd think there might be other ways to fill his shoes, when all we really need is to replace his offense. I'm more interested to see if Chaim might have some $ to spend and could make a play for someone younger, but I'll admit I haven't studied next years free agents yet.
I think I've said this before. If I were Bloom, I'd tell Turner to decline his player option (making his 2023 deal worth $15M with the buy out factored in) then offer a new 1+option deal for $15M with another $5M buyout of a $15M player option. That guarantees Turner $20M next season with the same soft commitment to another year that they gave him last winter.
Why didn't they just sign him to 1/15 last winter instead of the 1+option? That extra commitment to a second season is psychological. Maybe it makes Turner feel warm and fuzzy enough to stay instead of going somewhere else for 1/21? There might also be luxury tax implications to doing the option instead of putting all the salary in a one-year deal.
Good points. Raises the question: if Turner takes the $7M buyout and then signs for $15M (+$5M 2025 player option) is the $7M still charged to 2024 for payroll purposes? In that case JT’s salary would be $22M in 2024.
No choice involved. If it's a buy-out, it's tacked on to the previous year. That's the way it works for all contracts. He's effectively on a 1/$15M this year unless he takes the option, then it's 2/$21.75M.
That's the rub. The team has three guys out in the field who could be DH's and too many outfielders. I just don't think they have room for Turner.
While it might have played out that way, it was unknown at the time of the signing. My supposition, held by many others, was that they went hard after Yoshida because of his connection to Yamamoto. I expect they'll want to see Yoshida for a second season, after all the cultural and league adjustments have been made, and to see whether they get Yamamoto before thinking about moving Yoshida.
I think he's much more likely to agree to a new # higher than $6.7m prior to hitting free agency than just taking the $6.7m in N
Yeah, this is where I'm at. With what may be his final year, I'd have to think prioritizing being on a team where the post season is a high probability would be a priority. I've really liked seeing him in Boston, and he seems to like it here too, but if I were him I'd probably really want to get a feel for how committed the Sox are to field a competitive team next season before I came back. Spending the twilight of you career on a .500ish, 4th/5th place team may not be that appealing.
Duran wasn't on the opening day roster, Abreu was considered a long-shot to be a regular prior to this year, and Rafaela had a Dalbecian K rate.
Why do you think the Dodgers would sign him for next season after not signing him for this season?
That leads me to ask why did he leave the Dodgers in the first place? Was it to see other sights or did they sort of push him out because they had no role for him? It's not like he had a bad year last year (121 OPS+, this year he's at 122). If they moved on from 38 year old JT, do they want 39 year old JT?
Agree with all of this except this stuff about Rafaela having a Dalbecian K rate. He might have sloppy plate discipline, but the most he's ever struck out was 24% of the time in A+ ball, which is high but not that high.
Point taken. Shall we say swing tendencies that seemed certain to result in a Dalbecian K rate at the ML level?
Google "Rafaela Worcester swing" for articles on the Sox addressing his plate discipline vis-a-vis his chances of being promoted to the majors.
Yeah, I'm aware of his plate discipline issues, sorry if it appears I'm being obtuse. He's just a hacker, and it's going to produce strikeouts. But I also think he makes enough hard contact that he'll probably be a 25% K guy - not the 30-35% K rate guy Dalbec or Franchy is. Ymmv
The Dodgers declined his option. They probably thought they could get similar value from JD at $10 million as Turner at $16 mil. They weren't completely wrong.
I think the question of whether or not a 39-year-old Turner is a better defender on the corners is the big one for this discussion. Based on this years numbers, Turner was a better defender than Casas, and probably better than Raffy, but Turner had so few games at 3rd it is hard to really know. This year when Turner played 1B, it was usually against LH pitchers, and Casas sat while Yoshi slid over to DH. If Turner were to remain on the squad, does having him take 30 starts each at 1B and 3B, with Casas and Raffy DHing for the most part on those days, make enough of a difference on defense? Having Turner DH another 80 games would limit him to 140, and open up 22 games for Yoshi to DH, along with any games Casas or Raffy sit for rest.
Or no gains in defense at all. I’m not sure Turner is a defensive upgrade over either Devers or Casas. Perhaps someone with a better understanding of defensive metrics can chime in here, but Turner’s ‘23 fielding stats are going to be skewed by SSS.
That's only true if you don't care about how bad the Sox fielding has been at 1b, 3b and LF. YTF's point was that resigning Turner prevents the Sox from DHing one of those lead gloved fielders.
That’s a cool look on a Mass day that feels like the Boys of Summer could be playing…
