Well, there's a deal that practically sells itself.I’d take Miggy if Detroit picked up most of the contract and the most they would ask in return is a lotto ticket single A prospect.
Well, there's a deal that practically sells itself.I’d take Miggy if Detroit picked up most of the contract and the most they would ask in return is a lotto ticket single A prospect.
Rebuilding and no one in their right minds will take on even half of that deal. I think he still has something in the tank.Why exactly would Detroit trade Cabrera if they’re picking up most of the tab and getting nothing prospects? I would absolutely take a subsidized Miggy as long as there are no medical concerns. Not buying that he’s entered the Pujols phase of his career just yet.
Of course they wouldn't.Why exactly would Detroit trade Cabrera if they’re picking up most of the tab and getting nothing prospects? I would absolutely take a subsidized Miggy as long as there are no medical concerns. Not buying
that he’s entered the Pujols phase of his career just yet.
Rebuilding doesn't mean looking to give away assets for for nothing. Not outside of Miami at least.Rebuilding and no one in their right minds will take on even half of that deal. I think he still has something in the tank.
Albert Pujols entered the Pujols phase of his career at 33 years old, when his OPS declined from .859 to .767 -- and the year before that, his OPS was .906, so a .139 drop over two seasons.Why exactly would Detroit trade Cabrera if they’re picking up most of the tab and getting nothing prospects? I would absolutely take a subsidized Miggy as long as there are no medical concerns. Not buying that he’s entered the Pujols phase of his career just yet.
Why would Wade Davis sign with the Sox to be a set-up guy unless they overpaid him? And why would the Sox overpay Wade Davis to be a set-up guy?Actually, I'm warming up to bringing Miggy here. He'll be 35 which I feel is okay, for him, if he DHs. Play him like Ortiz in that he plays 1B against NL teams in their ballpark. That means moving Hanley to 1B which is not all that bad. With Stanton in NY it may be a good idea to add someone like Wade Davis to the pen to even out the pens. That leaves the need for a fourth OF and another utility player to cover the IF and handle 2B while Peddy is out. As the Minors are pretty thin and putting together a trade for someone like Hamilton and Peraza from the Reds is unlikely the Sox will have to go FA. I like Austin Jackson for the 4th OF. Not sure we can get Nunez to come back in a part-time role but if so then sign him.
The rotation makes me nerves. Is Price capable of coming back. Which Porcello will be here in 2018. Is Pomeranz really that good. Can ERod make it back. I wonder if Alex Cobb would be interested in coming to Boston. Let ERod recover and rebuild slowly. Cobb would cover the potential for Price opting out and Pomeranz moving on.
Edit: Miggy has 6 years left on his contract worth $184 million - not sure about details of 24/25 vesting option(s).
Definitely agree there would be considerable risk but is Miggy’s next 5 years much riskier than, say, giving 180-200M to JD? I want no part of Miggy’s current contract but if it’s subsidized to, say, 6/120, I probably pull the trigger. Pujols is certainly a cautionary tale but Ortiz is also a counterpoint.Albert Pujols entered the Pujols phase of his career at 33 years old, when his OPS declined from .859 to .767 -- and the year before that, his OPS was .906, so a .139 drop over two seasons.
Cabrera is just exiting his age 34 season, a year in which his OPS fell from .956 to .728 -- a .228 drop.
Pujols is listed as 6'3", 240.
Cabrera is listed as 6'4", 240. He's also had issues with his weight, and with alcohol.
He may or not rebound, but I think there are much safer options about there that can replicate a good portion of his upside. If he comes here and sucks, that contract is a massive, crippling albatross.
Why take a broken down Miggy when we could have had a young star like Stanton for about the same money per year?I’d take Miggy if Detroit picked up most of the contract and the most they would ask in return is a lotto ticket single A prospect. I’d rather take a chance on him than sign JD to the ridiculous contract I know that DD can’t wait to put in front of him.
Definitely agree there would be considerable risk but is Miggy’s next 5 years much riskier than, say, giving 180-200M to JD? I want no part of Miggy’s current contract but if it’s subsidized to, say, 6/120, I probably pull the trigger. Pujols is certainly a cautionary tale but Ortiz is also a counterpoint.
Just a thought. Our pen is a tad weak against the Yankees and adding someone like Wade would even things out a tad. Yeah, he'ed be over paid which may make it amendable to be setup man. Trying to figure out how to deal with the addition of Stanton to the Lineup. I feel the Yankees have a better pen so evening things out there would help compete. Our rotation is presently better but as mentioned I am concerned about it. Not sure if the Yankees will go after a FA starter which could further tilt things in their favor.Why would Wade Davis sign with the Sox to be a set-up guy unless they overpaid him? And why would the Sox overpay Wade Davis to be a set-up guy?
Jim Thome hit 42, 35, 34 homers in his 36-38 seasons.Ortiz really isn’t a counterpoint. At least, IMO. I think he is the lone exception to performance vs age. Especially in terms of aging power hitters. I mean I think it was 2009? when people wanted Ortiz benched when he had the worst season of his career. And even Ortiz said that he was only able to rebound because a fellow teammate helped him fix his swing.
I mean see: Prince fielder, A-Gon. Very few power hitters have hit like Ortiz at Ortiz’s age.
So i think it’s a little pie in the Skyish if we think MIGGY will age as well as Ortiz.
I'd much rather have Martinez for 6 years than Miggy, even for 10 million a year less. The chances that you get nothing out of Cabrera are far higher given the difference in their ages.Definitely agree there would be considerable risk but is Miggy’s next 5 years much riskier than, say, giving 180-200M to JD? I want no part of Miggy’s current contract but if it’s subsidized to, say, 6/120, I probably pull the trigger. Pujols is certainly a cautionary tale but Ortiz is also a counterpoint.
Papi is not the lone exception. Frank Thomas had 2 good years at age 38 and 39 and had .950 OPS in his age 35 season and .925 in age 38. His age 36/37 seasons were lost to injury, which is certainly part of the argument since these aging guys are at an elevated risk of injury.Ortiz really isn’t a counterpoint. At least, IMO. I think he is the lone exception to performance vs age. Especially in terms of aging power hitters. I mean I think it was 2008? when people wanted Ortiz benched when he had the worst season of his career. And even Ortiz said that he was only able to rebound because a fellow teammate helped him fix his swing.
I mean see: Prince fielder, A-Gon. Very few power hitters have hit like Ortiz at Ortiz’s age.
So i think it’s a little pie in the Skyish if we think MIGGY will age as well as Ortiz.
Edit: it was 2008
That’s certainly fair. But what if it takes 7-8 years to land Martinez? Does that change the equation?I'd much rather have Martinez for 6 years than Miggy, even for 10 million a year less. The chances that you get nothing out of Cabrera are far higher given the difference in their ages.
If Martinez is willing to DH and we don't need to break up the Bees then I could accept that. It still moves Hanley to 1B which would be acceptable. I think Miggy's got 2 -3 years of solid performance left before he begins his decline. Martinez, in theory, could be better longer. Martinez cost money were Miggy would cost both money (possibly less) and prospects/players. Martinez could be cheaper and better in the long run.I'd much rather have Martinez for 6 years than Miggy, even for 10 million a year less. The chances that you get nothing out of Cabrera are far higher given the difference in their ages.
Papi is not the lone exception. Frank Thomas had 2 good years at age 38 and 39 and had .950 OPS in his age 35 season and .925 in age 38. His age 36/37 seasons were lost to injury, which is certainly part of the argument since these aging guys are at an elevated risk of injury.
Even Boras hasn't asked for 8 years. The initial rumor was 7 yrs/210 and I'm not seeing teams jumping in at that price.That’s certainly fair. But what if it takes 7-8 years to land Martinez? Does that change the equation?
Agreed completely but it all depends on the economics for me. The Sox literally threw $95M down the drain on Sandoval and they’ve been able to survive. Clearly, there are some big bills coming with Mookie, Sale, X, JBJ, etc. but this is a team that is built to win now and I’d be willing to bet that age 35-37 Miggy is an impact hitter. Age 38-40 Cabrera likely won’t be but he won’t be completely useless either unless there are physical issues. Edgar Martinez is another example of a guy still being productive in his late 30s and I could see Cabrera having similar years.Ok. Not lone exception, Ortizis one of the few exceptions. If you trade for MIGGY you are taking the risk that he ages as well
As Ortiz. And thats far from a sure thing (as well as an Elevated risk of injuries like you said)
I hope DD uses height and weight to make all roster decisions going forward. Who says we don’t have an analytics department?Albert Pujols entered the Pujols phase of his career at 33 years old, when his OPS declined from .859 to .767 -- and the year before that, his OPS was .906, so a .139 drop over two seasons.
Cabrera is just exiting his age 34 season, a year in which his OPS fell from .956 to .728 -- a .228 drop.
Pujols is listed as 6'3", 240.
Cabrera is listed as 6'4", 240. He's also had issues with his weight, and with alcohol.
He may or not rebound, but I think there are much safer options about there that can replicate a good portion of his upside. If he comes here and sucks, that contract is a massive, crippling albatross.
You left out David Robertson in the pen. He is probably ahead of WarrenJust a thought. Our pen is a tad weak against the Yankees and adding someone like Wade would even things out a tad. Yeah, he'ed be over paid which may make it amendable to be setup man. Trying to figure out how to deal with the addition of Stanton to the Lineup. I feel the Yankees have a better pen so evening things out there would help compete. Our rotation is presently better but as mentioned I am concerned about it. Not sure if the Yankees will go after a FA starter which could further tilt things in their favor.
Edit: Trying to keep the OF together as is.
I think like everyone else on the board I'm trying to wrap my head around a lineup that has Stanton, Judge and Sanchez in it with a pen made up of Betances, Chapman, Green and Warren.
And Kahnle, those were the main two setup guys by the end of the season, with Betances a question mark and Green and Warren more multi-inning guys.You left out David Robertson in the pen. He is probably ahead of Warren
I think you can guarantee that the Yankees will get a Cole-type pitcher over the next week. They have depth around the diamond and throughout the system, they can meet almost any need a team has with young upside players. Clint Frazier is the obvious main chip, but that actually doesn't make the Yankees a great matchup for the Pirates because the one place they are stacked is in the outfield.Have the Yankees acquired Machado and Garrett Cole yet? I figure by this time next week that will have happened.
The Sox need to spend money up to the $237 million threshold to get another bullpen ace and a cleanup hitter, or they need to become sellers and do it right this time.
Not that I'm aware of. Pretty certain they have Jacoby Ellsbury though. The Yankees signing him had the sky falling all around you.Have the Yankees acquired Machado and Garrett Cole yet? I figure by this time next week that will have happened.
SF already tipped their hand to Boras in their pursuit of Stanton. Do you really think they go from willing to shell out $250m and that rumored package to flinching over having to pay out more then $150m to secure the guy who will happily take their money in JD Martinez?I think we need to pump the breaks on our Martinez valuations. Boras asked for $210, which means he wants $150. I think it will be hard to pull that off as the third worst defensive player in baseball, so bad in left that WAR likes him better as a DH.
MLBTR predicted $135. I’d guess they’re closer.
FWIW, Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle said that SF's actual offer was very different from what was being reported, you can check out his timeline for more if you want:SF already tipped their hand to Boras in their pursuit of Stanton. Do you really think they go from willing to shell out $250m and that rumored package to flinching over having to pay out more then $150m to secure the guy who will happily take their money in JD Martinez?
I've seen all that. Regardless what the specifics actually were I still think the cat is out of the bag on SF's willingness/desire to spend aggressively big this winter, and they obviously want a big bat.FWIW, Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle said that SF's actual offer was very different from what was being reported, you can check out his timeline for more if you want:
Henry SchulmanVerified account @hankschulman
Industry source: Panik, Beede, Shaw, Ramos were NOT in the deal with #marlins #sfgiants
I was thinking this route as well. Votto or bust.Let the MFY have their flashy new marketing toy. Get Dombrowski on the next plane to Cincinnati and convince the better National League player to waive his no-trade clause.
While the Yankees have more money than us, in the end, their GM proved to be a lot more successful at building that team than ours did.The Yankees are back where they belong, as public enemy No. 1.
And we cannot give a pass to Hanley as we add talent to compete. From 2015- 2017 his Boston career has him as 105 OPS+ and 1.2 WAR.
Time and past time to move on from him.
What gets me is we keep hearing from the media how the Red Sox don't want to part with anything from their vaunted farm system. Last I looked only Chavis and Groome are worth anything.While the Yankees have more money than us, in the end, their GM proved to be a lot more successful at building that team than ours did.
The last three big FAs we signed have been fairl disastrous. 30 mil a year for a 3war pitcher is a bad contract, Porcello at 20 mil is a bad contract, and Pablo and Hanley have been disasters. We really need Benintendi and Devers to be stars for us to compete with that Yankees team.
Where are we hearing that from? The Sox currently have a bottom third farm system, not a vaunted one. I think it was more that we were hearing that the Sox didn't have the prospects to make a deal, and then Stanton backed Miami into a corner and in the end it didn't take much in prospects to get him.What gets me is we keep hearing from the media how the Red Sox don't want to part with anything from their vaunted farm system.
No one is claiming the Red Sox are afraid or reticent to trade prospects anymore, and certainly no one is claiming that the farm system is "vaunted". Since he's arrived, Dombrowski has done a pretty good job trading quite a few prospects from what was a top 5 system and is now closer to a bottom 5 system.What gets me is we keep hearing from the media how the Red Sox don't want to part with anything from their vaunted farm system. Last I looked only Chavis and Groome are worth anything.
I would have traded Chavis and Groome in a heartbeat for Stanton.
Also I agree with you the Yankees GM did a better job than ours did as the Yankees right now have a better farm system than the Red Sox.
The farm system sucks to put it politely. Nothing vaunted about it anymore. The Yankees gave up a good infielder who was an all star last year as part of the deal. Better return than i thought the Marlins would get on top of the two prospects who aren’t great but decent. Both would probably be in the Sox top 10 to be honest.Where are we hearing that from? The Sox currently have a bottom third farm system, not a vaunted one. I think it was more that we were hearing that the Sox didn't have the prospects to make a deal, and then Stanton backed Miami into a corner and in the end it didn't take much in prospects to get him.
Being st best the fourth best team in the league with no farm system...I think you have to think your window is closed and you start to figure out who you want to build around in 2020. I’m not sure there’s a pitcher on the staff you want in 2020 for the price/duration you’d need to pay to keep them at that point. On the field you have vaz, Betts,Devers and Benny. That’s probably it.Have the Yankees acquired Machado and Garrett Cole yet? I figure by this time next week that will have happened.
The Sox need to spend money up to the $237 million threshold to get another bullpen ace and a cleanup hitter, or they need to become sellers and do it right this time.
I don't think it is clear that Stanton would not waive his NTC, there were definitely conflicting reports on this. The Sox could have definitely matched the Yankees, as X would have been just as valuable maybe more valuable than Castro. In addition, they could have thrown in other players to make it work. Either way the Yankees got an excellent deal for Stanton and will get money back when he doesn't opt out. Maybe Jeter did not want to deal with the Sox unless they overpaid, maybe the Sox we're reluctant to take on the contract, maybe he was not going to waive the NTC. My guess is Stanton to the Yankees was not expected and had it been the Sox would have been more active then what they appeared to be.No one is claiming the Red Sox are afraid or reticent to trade prospects anymore, and certainly no one is claiming that the farm system is "vaunted". Since he's arrived, Dombrowski has done a pretty good job trading quite a few prospects from what was a top 5 system and is now closer to a bottom 5 system.
The Red Sox did not acquire Stanton for one very big reason: his no-trade clause. If he's not going to come anyway, it doesn't matter what kind of prospects they have or how much money they're willing to spend.
It's interesting. Votto has been pretty adamant about not waiving, although there have been tantalizing hints here and there that this is not quite a line in the sand, as in this article from a year ago:I was thinking this route as well. Votto or bust.
If I'm reading that right, he's saying that he doesn't want to leave the Reds, but if it reaches the point where management is being open about wanting to move him, and he's being made to look like a bad guy for blocking a rebuild, that could change quickly."I've never been the guy who has forced people's hands," he said. "I've worked really hard to not look [bad] in my career and I've worked really hard to be a loyal worker, and I'd like to keep that going. Until I feel like I'm being shuffled out, you saw [that] last year with Brandon [Phillips], you saw it in Philadelphia with Chase Utley. Until I start feeling like the broom is on my heels, I'll be a really nice guy. If I feel the broom on my heels, I'll be a bit of [a jerk]. I'm not going to be a nice guy."
Why did want to go the Yankees over the Red Sox than?No one is claiming the Red Sox are afraid or reticent to trade prospects anymore, and certainly no one is claiming that the farm system is "vaunted". Since he's arrived, Dombrowski has done a pretty good job trading quite a few prospects from what was a top 5 system and is now closer to a bottom 5 system.
The Red Sox did not acquire Stanton for one very big reason: his no-trade clause. If he's not going to come anyway, it doesn't matter what kind of prospects they have or how much money they're willing to spend.
The Sox don't have the prospects to pull Votto unless they trade players that they need.It's interesting. Votto has been pretty adamant about not waiving, although there have been tantalizing hints here and there that this is not quite a line in the sand, as in this article from a year ago:
If I'm reading that right, he's saying that he doesn't want to leave the Reds, but if it reaches the point where management is being open about wanting to move him, and he's being made to look like a bad guy for blocking a rebuild, that could change quickly.
I also wonder if the fact that the team just had its third straight sub-70-win season could affect his thinking at all.
Anyway, I'd be a good deal less leery of that contract than Cabrera's, but I'm still not sure why either is preferable to Martinez. Yes, Votto is still much the better player of the two, but that gap will narrow and perhaps even disappear soon. The difference between paying for age 30-35 and 34-39 seems pretty major. Not to mention that while we might get Cabrera for lotto tickets, I think Cincinnati will expect at least a little real talent for Votto, whose contract is actually a bargain in AAV, if not in length.
OTOH, if you want to talk about LHH made for Fenway, Votto is quintessential:
Yeah, he'd lose a few HR to the deepest part of RF, but he'd gain more on the other side, plus a slew of doubles. Fenway could bump Votto's already-elite offense enough to mask at least a couple of years of decline.
If Votto is available, I'd prefer acquiring him over every other option that's been on the table. By a mile. I don't think he's currently available, though, as I think he's serious about staying in Cincy. Maybe we get a "Thanksgiving at the Schilling's" early Christmas trip out of Dombrowski, though. We can hope.I was thinking this route as well. Votto or bust.
Seriously? They just won the division... for the second season in a row. The same team that did that is coming back almost entirely (none of the major pieces have been lost). The offense was down all around last year and is a good bet to improve, even if I think the home run totals aren't where we'll see that. They'll have a full season out of Price. They'll have Smith back all year in the pen. They will add a power bat (just not sure who yet).Being st best the fourth best team in the league with no farm system...I think you have to think your window is closed and you start to figure out who you want to build around in 2020. I’m not sure there’s a pitcher on the staff you want in 2020 for the price/duration you’d need to pay to keep them at that point. On the field you have vaz, Betts,Devers and Benny. That’s probably it.
It's likely that the Red Sox have a shorter competitive window and an obvious rebuild looming in a few years where the Yankees do not. But we knew that before the Stanton trade, so I'm not sure how that's all of the sudden a big deal.Why did want to go the Yankees over the Red Sox than?
That should be a major concern in the future as why a star player didn't want to come to the Red Sox over the Yankees.
For some reason Stanton felt the Yankees were a team he would waive his no-trade for,while the Red Sox he wouldn't.
That to me is concerning.
Rumors are that Theo is focused on Benintendi, which is a non-starter for me.If we were to sign J.D. Martinez and trade for Schwarber that would be quite a bolstering....would JBJ be of interest to Chicago in any trade for Schwarber? I'm not talking 1-for-1, but as part of an expanded deal on both sides if need be.
I’ve advocated for these 2 moves since the offseason started. Schwarber gets a 1B glove in this scenario.If we were to sign J.D. Martinez and trade for Schwarber that would be quite a bolstering....would JBJ be of interest to Chicago in any trade for Schwarber? I'm not talking 1-for-1, but as part of an expanded deal on both sides if need be.
The farm system sucks to put it politely. Nothing vaunted about it anymore. The Yankees gave up a good infielder who was an all star last year as part of the deal. Better return than i thought the Marlins would get on top of the two prospects who aren’t great but decent. Both would probably be in the Sox top 10 to be honest.
When the Marlins flip Castro we’ll see the complete prospect haul. I imagine it would be solid.
The system is currently awful in terms of rankings, but yeah, there is plenty of reason to hope that the seeds of a good system are already in place. Sherff is my favorite pitcher in the system. It doesn't hurt that he's a really fun follow on twitter, but he's got nearly as big a ceiling as Groome, IMO.Don't want to derail the thread too much, but while there's some truth to the argument that the system sucks, I think that argument lacks a little nuance.
The system sucks in terms of impact talent and tradable assets. It's probably also deeper than it has been in the past 2-3 years.
...snip