What I find most disconcerting is that it’s clear the FO really has no cohesive strategy.
If the desire is to see the younger guys get meaningful playing time, then why did we sign Yoshida a year ago? Why were we even pursuing those FAs that Kennedy said we just didn’t “match up” with financially this offseason?
Was filling in gaps with older players the strategy as recently as 1 month ago, and now that’s been ditched? Seems like that’s the case.
I think something happened after the full throttle comments. Possibly some financial pitfall for Henry and/or FSG. Or they just very badly misjudged the market.
I don't know, I think if you remove the bluster, the offseason might be shaping up to be a fairly typical one, and right in line with what a lot of posters expected back in September/October.
Here’s how I see it: The Sox wanted a #1-2 starter and a #3-4 starter. They were in on YY for a six-week window; he went elsewhere. They've also been in on one of Montgomery or Snell (almost surely the former) the whole time, knowing that Boras would draw things out. No guarantees, but there are enough national reporters (Passan, Feinsand, Heyman) to establish that they're in.
Meanwhile, they bid on Lugo, modestly, to fill a slot that eventually went to Giolito. That’s the #3-4 guy they were looking for, and they got one, though Giolito has some recuperable upside.
Rather than swing a stopgap deal for Drury or Polanco or Edman, they traded Chris Sale — an ace, a spare part, a symbol of previous era’s frustrations — for a promising young 2B. Good move.
They’ve also been searching for a RHB the whole time, and it’s looking like they’ve read the DH market nicely. Sensing fan restlessness, some reporters seized on the fact that we didn’t “line up” on Téoscar's ask, but it looks a lot more clear now that his 3/$60-80M (rumored) asking price is really high relative to other substandard OAA outfielder/DH types who are signing now and still available. (Hoskins signed as a first baseman.) Pederson just went to ARI for 1/$9.5 with a mutual option. Now there's Soler, Turner, J.D. Martinez, Belt, Duvall, Meadows, Vogelbach, Hicks, Winker, Pham, Choi, Cooper and Gary Sánchez who all need spots, and there's a pretty robust group of similar hitters potentially available for trade (Josh Bell, Polanco again, Ty France if the Guardians trade for Naylor, Morel, India, Drury, Dylan Carlson, Vargas, Conforto, probably others). We'll probably get one of the right-handed ones of those, and for far less than the $60-80M rumored for Téoscar. (Remember, Breslow said in November that Yoshida being the full-time DH is unideal, so we're just looking for a 120 wRC+ DH who can cover some extra positions.)
That brings us to the #1-2 starter. I’m not saying we’re sure to sign Montgomery, but it really does look possible, doesn't it? Are the Rangers going to pump another $125-150 million into that all-world rotation that currently includes “
eight solid starters” (deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Mahle, Gray, Heaney, Dunning, Bradford, White)? Remember that they’re one of two teams who could sign Kershaw, and the other one just added three aces. Would they rather sign Montgomery at 5/$135~ or sign Kershaw at 1/$15~ and just roll with Cody Bradford for 10-12 starts until he’s healthy? Plus, they’re currently over the CBT and have to figure out their TV deal.
Who else? Do the Yankees drop $125-150 million to upgrade Schmidt/Warren/Beeter/Hampton to Montgomery? The Cardinals have a rotation of five FAs totaling $80 million in 2024 AAV. The Cubs? Angels? Giants? They'd all seem to me much more likely to sign one of Boras’s other clients.
Of course I’m not sure, but I do lean that we end up with Montgomery now, and I didn’t a month ago. If we do, it’ll really look like Breslow stuck to the plan and rode out the Boras clock, while everyone breathlessly reported that
the impression around the league was that we were a small-market team.