Let's Predict the 2023 Red Sox Season
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
If he replicated last year - 10-10, 4.34, 31 starts. Man, we'd still be in this thing.
The Sox are 70-66, with 26 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 96 wins and an equally improbable floor of 70 wins. A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 83 wins. Hot-seat predictors:
@LogansDad 95
***
@Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
@LogansDad 95
***
@Merkle's Boner 70
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Weekend update:
After a dismal 3-7 stretch, the Sox are 72-69, now 6 games out of the WC.
With 21 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 93 wins and an equally improbable floor of 72 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 82-3 wins.
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
After a dismal 3-7 stretch, the Sox are 72-69, now 6 games out of the WC.
With 21 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 93 wins and an equally improbable floor of 72 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 82-3 wins.
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Every time they have one of these slides they go on a winning streak. I can’t see them making the playoffs, but I can still see them breaking .500
Seconded.
I only gave up on a 90 win season yesterday...
There is definitely a place for optimists. When they win 100 games next year, he's going to look like a prophet.
I was a bit optimistic predicting 87 wins. Now going 9-11 just to finish at .500 seems to be a reach.
On Aug 20, when they swept the NYYs, they were 66-58, 8 games over .500.
Since then they've gone 6-12, to fall back to 2 games over .500, and essentially kill their WC chances.
Sox would only be 3 games out in the AL Central, and would be tied for third in the NL Central!
I get what you're saying here about their playoff chances being much better in another division, but.....
Meh. They’d be a different franchise if they were in those divisions, with different resources and a different approach to team building.
Until they just line up the AL 1 to 15, balance the schedule and let it rip, these comparisons don’t hold water.
They’d also start their games 1-3 hours later and it would be harder for most fans to attend home games.
Because I have a moment, post double-header:
The Sox are 73-72, 7 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 11.
With 17 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 90 wins and an equally improbable floor of 73 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 82 wins. Current favorites are in green.
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
The Sox are 73-72, 7 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 11.
With 17 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 90 wins and an equally improbable floor of 73 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 82 wins. Current favorites are in green.
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Last edited:
Because I have a moment, post double-header:
The Sox are 74-73, 7.5 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 9.
With 15 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 89 wins and an equally improbable floor of 74 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 81 wins. Current favorites are in green.
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
The Sox are 74-73, 7.5 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 9.
With 15 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 89 wins and an equally improbable floor of 74 wins.
A .500 campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 81 wins. Current favorites are in green.
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Last edited:
Can’t help but notice the “current favorites” range keeps going down. Thinking 79 might be in play soon…
It's where a .500 campaign takes them. They may or may not do that, but it seemed a reasonable thing to base a visual maker on.
I can see a garbage road trip here, and only 5 home games left (albeit 3 vs the tire fire White Sox). Orioles might need to try in the last series of the season, they are only one game up on the Rays now.
79-83 would be a 5-10 finish from here. It's definitely in play.
79-83 would be a 5-10 finish from here. It's definitely in play.
Well, there's the whole issue of resting/shutting players down for both us and other teams, so that can make the final games pretty swingy. But that depends on (for example) what's going on with Baltimore for the last 4 games of the year.
While the Sox don't have a lot of arms, I don't know if there's any reason to sit Bello, Houck, Sale, or Pivetta in the next weeks. If there is, the team will crash and burn.
I'd guess 3-12 is about the worst they'd do, and 9-6 the best.
So 77 to 83 wins?
They've done that a few times this year and bounced back each time to bring it back to/over .500.
In fact it's been pretty remarkable how consistent they've been month to month. 13 or 15 wins each month.
Mar/April 15-14
May 13-13
June 13-15
July 15-8
August 13-15
September 5-8
8-7 or 10-5 the rest of the way would fit the pattern.
Things get weird the last 2 weeks of the year. Yeah they might go 8-7 or 10-5. They might also go 3-12. All outcomes possible.
May as well do the update then.
The Sox are 74-74, 7.5 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 8.
With 14 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 88 wins and an equally improbable floor of 74 wins.
A .500ish campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 81 wins. Current favorites for that are in green.
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Last edited:
How many teams can potentially pass the Sox over the next few weeks?
Asking for the poor Sox fans that wasted the last 4 years following a mediocre team that should have tanked harder.
Asking for the poor Sox fans that wasted the last 4 years following a mediocre team that should have tanked harder.
Most likely, none. They are four games ahead of Cleveland and San Diego, five up on Pittsburgh. Looks like they will be no worse than the 18th best record.
Inconsequential at this point. With the draft lottery, the difference between being the 14th worst team and the 11th worst team isn't enough to guarantee anything. They could tank the last two weeks and still end up with the same draft position they'd have if they played it straight.
The 2024 Draft is a lottery so nothing is fixed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Major_League_Baseball_draft
Tankathon has a good page for the standings. https://www.tankathon.com/mlb
Maybe we go lower than Cleveland or San Diego. . .but the next team down is Washington, and there's a 9 game gap. Right now we're looking at (most likely) the #13 pick. If we tanked hard. . .we might get the #12 pick, but could end up with #13 still.
Yes, the lottery is for the first six picks, but the Sox are eligible for that lottery if they miss the playoffs. Tanking won't significantly impact their odds of getting a top 6 pick. And there's not a whole lot of difference between picking 12th and picking 15th in terms of player quality or bonus money allocations.
No. But pick movement is more limited the further out you are from the worst 6. See the link upthread.
End of the Jays series in which they were swept.
The Sox are 74-76, 8.5 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 5.
With 12 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 86 wins and an equally improbable floor of 74 wins.
A .500ish campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 80 wins. Current favorites for that are in green.
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
The Sox are 74-76, 8.5 games out of the WC, with an elimination number of 5.
With 12 games left, they have improbable ceiling of 86 wins and an equally improbable floor of 74 wins.
A .500ish campaign for the remainder puts them somewhere close to 80 wins. Current favorites for that are in green.
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
Damn, I had hopes of them starting a streak today and winning out the rest of the way.
It's been a frustrating season for sure, but some definite pluses to look forward to.
I think even if they do match my 83-win prediction I’d lose because I also predicted “good vibes,” and we seem pretty far from that at the moment
Yeesh. If ownership promotes that guy to the FO, would be like the old corporate trick of rewarding incompetence.