No shot? We are currently tied for first, everyone else’s pitchers need their arms to continue working, and projections suggest the Sox will be in earshot of the WC.
Lucas Giolito has an elbow issue.
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"Figure out the best way to deploy them"... as someone hits an absolute moon shot off Whitlock. LOL
In your opinion, what does cutting one's losses look like? Guys who might have filled the back end of the pen in place of Martin and/or Jansen are likely to be needed in the rotation. No idea what the status of Duran's foot injury is, but if it's serious that may cause some brake pumping if O'Neill is seen as someone who might be moved. Pivetta? Someone has to pitch for this team. That's not to say any of these guys can't or won't be moved, but I think it might not be so easy.
The trickle-down effect from what, 180 projected innings-eating to 0 might be huge, I think doomsday is more appropriate than not in this instance.
There is talent in this pitching group but it is likely a lot of relievers after Bello, Crawford, PIvetta (and Pivetta is still a question mark to me). The innings coverage is once again dire.
Are they literally going to have nobody pitching those 180 innings, and just concede infinite runs to the other team?
Teams find 1.0 WAR guys off the scrap heap all the time. No doubt this is a setback. But I'm still going to wait and see how things play out.
There's always a chance, I didn't say there wasn't. But I'd also rate it currently as extremely unlikely, to the point where I think it would be a flat out terrible move to give up something like Mayer + Bleis + Zanatello + Monegro for 2 years of Cease when at least one of those years is very likely to be non-competitive.
Most likely the innings go to a veteran retread with, what, +0.5 WAR upside at the very most? And very much bigger downside, like 2019 Chacin.
It's more about players being forced back into roles they're not as good at.
Ah, sorry, you did say "likely". I'm more bullish than you on this year and probably on Cease, but we'll see.
Well we absolutely demolished Pepiot, who is the Rays #4 starter, so I guess they are doomed too?
I agree that while the chances this year and next are not zero, they are not high enough to make a future-wins-for-current-wins trade like this worthwhile.
It’s likely we’ll have 2, or 3, AAAA-level pitchers cover those 180 innings. Fingers crossed they’re collectively as good as a likely mediocre Giolito.
They could (and should) at the minimum, sign two guys like Ryu and Lorenzen / Clevinger and add some depth. I’m not as fearful of blocking Whitlock and Houck as some are; there will be plenty of innings to go around- there anyways is. I struggle to recall a Red Sox team with too much pitching- and if that happens, it’s a pretty darn good problem.
It really just comes down to the internal assessment. If Houck's third time through is fixable and Whitlock is healthy, and so the team concludes they're viable ML starters, let them start. They can try to shore up the pitching roster on the back end with the bullpen.
If the team determines they're not going to be viable starters, then your "could and should at the minimum" comes into play.
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Ryu plays for the Hanwha Eagles and Clevinger has a DV history.
Lorenzen would be fine. We could use the innings.
I'm still not giving up on Montgomery.
Bah.
Put me in the extend Pivetta, don't trade him camp. Underneath the super-duper Breslow Bailey pixie dust, somebody has to pitch in the first, and hopefully keep pitching until the 6th.
And paper thin teams are always at the mercy on the injury demons. Sox are on the brink of bringing back the worst fielding 2b combo I've ever watched, while whistling past the fact that the new guy is sidelined with a second springtime ouchie.
I'm getting flashbacks to the Pats o-line last year. Makes me crazy to even think about a calendar year of this crap.
Hope none of these guys see a Celtic in person until they're on duckboats...
Put me in the extend Pivetta, don't trade him camp. Underneath the super-duper Breslow Bailey pixie dust, somebody has to pitch in the first, and hopefully keep pitching until the 6th.
And paper thin teams are always at the mercy on the injury demons. Sox are on the brink of bringing back the worst fielding 2b combo I've ever watched, while whistling past the fact that the new guy is sidelined with a second springtime ouchie.
I'm getting flashbacks to the Pats o-line last year. Makes me crazy to even think about a calendar year of this crap.
Hope none of these guys see a Celtic in person until they're on duckboats...
Complete agreement. Rebuilds happen and for a lot of reasons this one is stall-y. I didn’t think that Bloom was the worst but his inaction during the trade deadlines was indefensible. You can’t get a Cease, but you can get ten lottery tickets who could be Cease when the window opens up. The window is pretty close if all goes well, it’s really just pitching that is a major concern and that’s figuring out a way to get 3-4 positive impact guys on rookie controlled contracts and then having the firepower to nab an ace, though financial flexibility or cost controlled assets on the other side of the ball.
If the Sox do suck this year the deadline needs to be getting rid of anyone over 27 and not stapled down long term.
The bad part is the college class this year looks kinda shitty. Not a Skenes/Langford/Crews projected to be out there.
If they are willing to spend, a big one-year pillow deal for Montgomery makes more sense now.
But the bigger question there, even above their appetite to spend, is whether Montgomery is willing to take such a deal.
Making a long-term compromise (whether a too-big/risky contract to Snell, or trading real assets for near-term help) is a bad response to this news and I neither want nor beleive they will do so
But the bigger question there, even above their appetite to spend, is whether Montgomery is willing to take such a deal.
Making a long-term compromise (whether a too-big/risky contract to Snell, or trading real assets for near-term help) is a bad response to this news and I neither want nor beleive they will do so
Sign Montgomery, look for some veteran guys or AAAA guys who might have some upside if you squint at them right, and see how it plays out. The bigger issue is the teams unwillingness to do what it takes to be and remain competitive year after year.
With Giolito likely to miss the season, and Hendriks to start the season on the DL- the only FA signed to a major league contract with a chance to make the opening day roster is…..Cooper Criswell.
View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1765046879929106604?s=46
This is actually kind of wild. And may be why Henry is hesitant to spend big $$$ on FA pitching
I'm not so bummed out on the Giolito injury as some here I guess - if I remember nobody was expecting much from Crawford last year and he ended up as a real contributor.
This is revisionist history. Sale had thrown 200 innings four times before signing that contract and had never missed significant time with a serious injury. You know how many 200 innings Giolito has? Zero. And he’s already had one Tommy John.
Sale tried it in 2019 when his elbow first barked. It didnt work for him, but it did work for Tanaka, Price and others.
Those projections have 22 teams with between 76-86 wins. 11 teams won between 76-86 games last season. Feel like everything gravitates towards average with these projections. Seems to often be very little difference among players.
(A’s are the most improved team in baseball, Dodgers among the least, according to these projections.)
(A’s are the most improved team in baseball, Dodgers among the least, according to these projections.)
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So you think it was a good idea to extend Sale? There were red flags all over the place by then. And 200 inning starters are going extinct, there were all of five last year, and eight in '22. Regardless, there was no need to gamble on his ability to return to that sort of elite form a year earlier than they had to, and they have been paying the price ever since.
The trade for Sale was great, but extending Sale was a much bigger blunder than signing Giolito, however that ultimately shakes out.
Ya think? What really kills me is that they use the 184.5 mil number and focus on Giolito's 18 million $$ contribution in the headline while the real killers were and are the Sale and Price deals, accounting for 166.5 mil down the drain.
Speaking of Price, free bobblehead w/Astro available in JP: https://boston.craigslist.org/gbs/zip/d/jamaica-plain-david-price-bobblehead/7723744750.html
They aren’t signing Montgomery. If they had any intention of signing Montgomery you figure they would have done it year day or today. They got Giolito’s news today. They should have said nothing. Tell Giolito to go home for 48 hours and say nothing about your elbow. Find the guy who did the X-ray/MRI and send him to Siberia just to be protective. If anyone asks where Giolito is, he has a stomach bug.
Then call Boras, who won’t know you are desperate. You have probably had multiple conversations with him around length and numbers. Play around with it, and sign him.
Now if you sign him, it is going to hurt. Really badly.
Then call Boras, who won’t know you are desperate. You have probably had multiple conversations with him around length and numbers. Play around with it, and sign him.
Now if you sign him, it is going to hurt. Really badly.
This is such a bummer I don't even know what to think anymore, and I do think if the Sox have been in on Montgomery, that this would drive their price up.
That said, I don't think it stops them from being in on Montgomery, or from looking for a good trade for a younger starting pitcher. They've got a lot of young, cost-controlled players -- Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Mayer and co (esp if Mayer bounces back and Teel/Anthony have good starts to their seasons) could all be very enticing to other teams. I still think it's as likely that the team tries to improve the roster through such a trade than it is that they shell out 150 million for a pitcher in his 30's, but we'll see. Still possible they do both.
I know a lot of people are mad at the organization for not spending money, or for spending money on a guy who's only gone on to get hurt, but if anything Giolito is a reminder to all that every pitcher is a very quietly ticking time bomb. People forget that Sale pitched around 200 innings a year pretty consistently for the first half of his career before the wheels fell off. That's why you don't want to pay out the wazoo for Montgomery or someone like him.
I'm still more bullish on this pitching staff than most. I think there's a very real possibility that with an improved defense, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck and Bello all shine, but we'll see.
That said, I don't think it stops them from being in on Montgomery, or from looking for a good trade for a younger starting pitcher. They've got a lot of young, cost-controlled players -- Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Mayer and co (esp if Mayer bounces back and Teel/Anthony have good starts to their seasons) could all be very enticing to other teams. I still think it's as likely that the team tries to improve the roster through such a trade than it is that they shell out 150 million for a pitcher in his 30's, but we'll see. Still possible they do both.
I know a lot of people are mad at the organization for not spending money, or for spending money on a guy who's only gone on to get hurt, but if anything Giolito is a reminder to all that every pitcher is a very quietly ticking time bomb. People forget that Sale pitched around 200 innings a year pretty consistently for the first half of his career before the wheels fell off. That's why you don't want to pay out the wazoo for Montgomery or someone like him.
I'm still more bullish on this pitching staff than most. I think there's a very real possibility that with an improved defense, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck and Bello all shine, but we'll see.
Hagen Smith of Arkansas isn’t Paul Skenes but he’s pretty close. He struck out 17 in 6 innings vs Oregon State recently.
In some respects the Sox found their new CBO guy in Breslow, but he might be a AAAA exec. With Chicago he was not the CBO guy, or the GM. He was the GM of Pitchers. He has a good baseball background, but he is cutting his teeth on signing the elite FA's. In effect he was hired to build the 2025 team with the experience he learned from the 2024 season.
He has done an admirable job so far in building the depth of starting pitching in AA and AAA. Bullpen acquisitions were also really good. Boston management will arm itself for stocking MLB talent for 2025 and 2026. With the chatter about the "budget" and the one year contracts, 2025 seems to be the focus for a lot of people. A big contract signing this week could surprise people, but there is probably some perimeter building still to be done.
He has done an admirable job so far in building the depth of starting pitching in AA and AAA. Bullpen acquisitions were also really good. Boston management will arm itself for stocking MLB talent for 2025 and 2026. With the chatter about the "budget" and the one year contracts, 2025 seems to be the focus for a lot of people. A big contract signing this week could surprise people, but there is probably some perimeter building still to be done.
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The assumption that this drives up Montgomery's price only works if they're in on Montgomery at all costs against stiff competition. If Montgomery still hasn't signed anywhere because Boras is asking too much, it doesn't really increase his leverage to ask for even more.
If anything, it seems more likely to take the Sox away from him toward a Lorenzen type and just try to limp through a punted season.
If anything, it seems more likely to take the Sox away from him toward a Lorenzen type and just try to limp through a punted season.
They finished 79-84 last year.
Do you think they’re a better team this year? If so, how much better?
While that's true, they were also at the lower edge of contention for most of the year before an epic September collapse. (They literally played the worst baseball in the major leagues for the last month.)
To pick a date, on Aug 21, they had the #7 winning percentage in the AL at .532. If they finished with that, I doubt people would be predicting a 100 loss team this year.
That said, the collapse was real as key players were out or injured or fatigued or returned to be ineffective: Story, Casas, Duran, Yoshida, Turner. There's no reason that couldn't happen again, but is it likely to?
Overall, I think it's going to come down more to health than talent, given the roster depth (or lack of it.) But I don't see any set-in-stone reason why 79 wins should be a "true talent level" starting point.
The big area for potential improvement is SS and 2B, which were huge anchors last year. B-ref had them at -3.4 WAR, combined. If those spots can each be just 0.8, that's a 5 win swing right there. I’m hoping for more than that. Grissom's injury isn't a great start, but it's not expected to be long term.
Most models see this as a .500 team, which seems right-ish to me. The Giolito injury moves that down a bit of course, but it can be overcome if enough other things break right.
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Right now they're almost certainly a little worse.Neither do I. So, do you think they’re better or worse this year?
Signing Montgomery is one of the few things that could change the situation, but that's probably not happening.
Giolito was supposed to be the staff innings eater, and it's a staff that desperately needed that.
Besides sucking, this is an interesting outcome to me in that it supports a general unwillingness to extend contracts to older pitchers. But it also supports the idea that you want/need a lot of pitching depth because you can't reliably expect pitchers to be healthy. This has been the case with a lot of higher profile pitching acquisitions, it's not solely a Red Sox problem.
The models have most teams gravitating towards the mushy middle, though. FG projects 75% of teams to win between 76-86 games. They’ve got the A’s winning 72 games (+22), and the Dodgers 7 wins worse than last year. The entire ALE separated by 8 games? It’s comforting, I guess, but not sure how much stock to put into a model that sees relatively little variability in performance.
As far as last season goes, the team crashed and burned because they didn’t have any depth and most of their pitchers hit a wall. Hopefully that doesn’t happen this year, but I am not sure how much has changed.
As far as last season goes, the team crashed and burned because they didn’t have any depth and most of their pitchers hit a wall. Hopefully that doesn’t happen this year, but I am not sure how much has changed.
You should get yourself over to the prediction thread and make a pick. . .Neither do I. So, do you think they’re better or worse this year?
If I were to guess today, I'd say there are a lot of unknowns, but from an expected outcome perspective, I'd pick better. Mostly because I think the 2024 starting staff has a much better chance to be finalized and hit the ground running than they did in 2023, with the rash of appalling Kluber starts, ineffective Pivetta, etc.
From a talent level it's a bit harder to say, given the younger players, Bailey coming in, etc. I'd also pick better though. Or at least a push. Even with the loss of Giolitto.
My main concern is the thinness of talent (lack of depth) in light of health, especially on the pitching end.
Every model that's doing its job will always have results like this. Some players and teams will exceed expectations, some will fall short. Acuna has the highest WAR forecast at 7.5 - they are not forecasting that the league leader will be at 7.5. Highest HR is Judge at 48, Avg. Arraez .316, OBP Soto .421, SLG Alvarez .592. Some players will surely exceed these amounts, but for each player and team they're showing the
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