Luis Arráez and his chase at a .400 Batting Average
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
As you should. It's like @DennyDoyle'sBoil's post in the Psssst thread noting the time to break up a no hitter after it gets posted on SoSH. My FB memories in October have a few days where the Sox were playing and getting no hit for like 3 or 4 innings and my posts are "Hey, did anyone notice that <insert pitcher> has a no hitter going?" I have a 100% success rate in causing the breakup of no hitters.
Another 5-5, back to .400
He won't do it but he's likely to be the closest player this generation to doing it.
He won't do it but he's likely to be the closest player this generation to doing it.
How about 5-5 twice in three days? I need the stat on the last time that happened and who it was.
I might actually need to watch a Marlins game. I usually reserve those viewings for when they’re wearing their teal hat throwbacks, but I may make an exception.
I might actually need to watch a Marlins game. I usually reserve those viewings for when they’re wearing their teal hat throwbacks, but I may make an exception.
He has a .940 OPS, good for 6th in MLB, and he's hit two homers all year. Everyone else in close to him has at least 10.
I was surprised last night when, while rocking a 5 for 5 game, he was lifted for a pinch hitter in the 8th vs a Jays position player pitching. Seems like an obvious time to let him go for the 6th hit? The guy is a menace. I admit I wrote him off "no power" "not much speed" but wow this is fun to watch.
Well, you weren’t wrong. He doesn’t have much power and doesn’t have much speed but those contact skills are the best we’ve seen in a long time. That trade for Minnesota…woof.
It seemed like the Marlins were universally panned for that trade, but Pablo Lopez is giving up a lot of big innings because he can't retire anyone out of the stretch. The Twins also received Jose Salas, a highly regarded infield prospect, in the deal. MLB.com had him ranked as Minnesota's #9 prospect, but he's putting up a .499 OPS in Hi-A ball.
Not for nothing, but Lopez also has about a 1 run difference between his FIP and his ERA (3.49 v. 4.40). His xERA is 3.23. I think it's much more likely that Lopez turns back into a solid pitcher than Arraez finishes the season hitting .400.
Arraez has a career OPS+ of 125 and is just entering his prime so Lopez had better get closer to his peripherals or that’s not a great trade. Definitely time for it to be a relative wash though.
As a Sox fan, I’m just glad he’s not setting the table for an AL team. He’s exactly the kind of hitter the Yankees need in front of Judge, for instance.
I'm no expert on FIP or xERA, but as I said, Lopez is struggling with a known issue of pitching out of the stretch. I suspect a pitcher who's allowing an inordinate number of his baserunners to score is probably going to look better in theoretical statistics than those that measure actual results. It doesn't make sense to throw our hands up and say it must be bad luck or random statistical variance when we already know there's a mechanical or mental issue that accounts for why the models don't match reality. That doesn't mean he won't make adjustments or completely change what he's doing and get better results, but he has a legitimate problem to solve that isn't simply luck.
I'm also pretty sure Arraez doesn't need to hit .400 to be worth a "solid pitcher".
Even if Lopez bounces back, it looks like poor roster construction for the Twins. Their rotation is the team's biggest strength with 3 starters ahead of him pitching at an All-Star level. The reason they're a sub-.500 team is because they have no consistent offense (and no one in their pen to bridge the gap from their starters to their closer).
To be fair, this is at least in part because two of their young-ish starters (Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober) took major steps forward, arguably beyond reasonable expectations.
Yup. Twins are hitting .230 for the season (25th) and have the most strikeouts. Two areas where Arraez would obviously greatly help.
The Twins clearly thought with Polanco, Julian, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, and Correa they were covered in the infield. Without Lopez you are counting on Maeda or going to another rookie in the starting rotation. They also thought that Jorge Lopez, Jax, and Theiber would bridge to Duran in the bullpen. Clearly Arraez would help them but I understand their thinking.
The Twins also extended Lopez after a couple of April starts for eventually #2 starter money, 21mil a year in 2025-27. It's true the Twins are getting some young success right now on the rotation (Joe Ryan notably seems like a bad Rays trade for 2 months
of Nelson Cruz, who did not have an impact in that stretch run in 2021), but in general the Twins seem to more often than not make the wrong decision on their rotation and it's held them back.
https://apnews.com/article/twins-pablo-lopez-new-contract-4b7350cfa6f33289c0c94ce6fae612a1
Further edit: both have just about the same fWAR this year (Arraez 2.1, Lopez 1.9), FWIW.
of Nelson Cruz, who did not have an impact in that stretch run in 2021), but in general the Twins seem to more often than not make the wrong decision on their rotation and it's held them back.
https://apnews.com/article/twins-pablo-lopez-new-contract-4b7350cfa6f33289c0c94ce6fae612a1
Further edit: both have just about the same fWAR this year (Arraez 2.1, Lopez 1.9), FWIW.
Interesting the .400 chase is happening in the first year after banning the shift. But then, Ted didn’t face the shift either. So not like it’s a .400*. If anything, would probably be celebrated as a return to *true* baseball, if it happened.
Teddy did face a shift starting in 1946, 5 years after he hit .406.
https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/july-14-1946-lou-boudreau-debuts-his-shift-against-red-sox-slugger-ted-williams/
Hit a no-doubter today for his third of the year, his only hit of the day.
Finished 1-3, currently at .401.
Finished 1-3, currently at .401.
Went 1-4 yesterday, off today, currently at .399. He faces the Red Sox pitching staff next, so I'm sure he'll be at .404 by the end of the series.
Down to .396 after going 1-5 with an RBI tonight. Sox pitching has a chance to put him under .395 tomorrow
Arraez has at least one hit in every game since June 16th, except for the one Bello held him hitless... and his average is down to .388.
It absolutely blows my mind that anyone was ever able to hit .400.
It absolutely blows my mind that anyone was ever able to hit .400.
For those who have been closest, you don't have to miss by much:
George Brett, 1980: 175 hits in 449 AB for a .390 BA. Make that 180 hits in 449 AB and it's a .401 BA
Ted Williams, 1957: 163 hits in 420 AB. Make that 168 hits and it's an even .400 BA
Left out Tony Gwynn in 1994 because of the strike
Not quite the same thing, but Wade Boggs had a stretch of 162 games from 6/9/1985 to 6/6/1986 where he batted .401. He had 257 hits in 641 at-bats (in 81 home games and 81 away games). Along with 12 HR, 92 RBI, 125 R, 109 Walks, .489 OBP, .541 SLG. He was insanely good. Tony Gwynn sort of did the same thing, he hit .402 in 162 games from 7/27/1993 to 5/13/1995 (but over a longer time period due to the strike).
2 HR last night on a 2 for 5 night. Now has 9 dingers. BA is .349, .12 ahead of Acura who is second in the NL.
He dropped from .380 on August 1 to .350 on September 1 which took this from an historic batting average season to a merely really impressive number.
He dropped from .380 on August 1 to .350 on September 1 which took this from an historic batting average season to a merely really impressive number.
Rogers Hornsby probably had the longest streak of batting .400+ as he averaged .402 from 1921 through 1925, and it was actually a bit longer than that as he ended the 1920 season with 43 hits in 97 at bats.