He's saying that, for example, if you are a team that controls Jose Molina, you can fleece another team that focuses too much on pitch framing. Because you know Molina's true value, and the statistically-hubratic team overrates him.
Buchholz in 2013 had a .558 OPS allowed in 61 innings throwing to Salty...but a .529 OPS allowed in 41 innings throwing to Ross. As noted, the Red Sox BENCHED Salty in the World Series.Plympton91 said:Buccholz had the best season of his career throwing to Salty, and the Red Sox won a Division title and AL Championship with him as a starting catcher less than 18 months ago. His bat clearly out weighted any defensive shortcomings. Now, that offense was driven by a high BABIP, but If were still living in the era of diminished offense, then his 2014, was perfectly fine for an offensive catcher.
I hardly think he's washed up offensively based on 50 plate appearances this April. He's got to be a bigger asset than Leon, regardless of a stat that says Jose Molina is close to the most valuable catcher in baseball
crystalline said:He's saying that, for example, if you are a team that controls Jose Molina, you can fleece another team that focuses too much on pitch framing. Because you know Molina's true value, and the statistically-hubratic team overrates him.
Toe Nash said:Buchholz in 2013 had a .558 OPS allowed in 61 innings throwing to Salty...but a .529 OPS allowed in 41 innings throwing to Ross. As noted, the Red Sox BENCHED Salty in the World Series.
The thing about the pitch framing metrics is that it's not some crazy new thing. Pitchers have felt more "comfortable" throwing to different catchers for a long time. Now we just have a better idea of one of the reasons why.
I mean, Greg Maddux knew a thing or two about pitching and he had a personal catcher instead of throwing to Javy Lopez. He probably wasn't counting up how many extra strike calls he got with Eddie Perez but it was something he felt intuitively. Now we have some data that backs up that intuive feeling that a lot of pitchers have had.
Toe Nash said:I mean, Greg Maddux knew a thing or two about pitching and he had a personal catcher instead of throwing to Javy Lopez. He probably wasn't counting up how many extra strike calls he got with Eddie Perez but it was something he felt intuitively. Now we have some data that backs up that intuive feeling that a lot of pitchers have had.
BroodsSexton said:
understand the limits of statistical analysis in forming that valuation?
Of course Salty's 2 for 29 this year. I don't think he's done, but he wasn't exactly playing well either. 15 errors last year too.Plympton91 said:
That's exactly what I was getting at. In particular, understand the limits of the statistical metric some in this thread are now claiming is the be all and end all of catcher value because of some outlier result for Jose Molina 2 years ago.
And, also, might be symptomatic of any team that prefers Sandy freakin' Leon and his sub-Kevin-Cash-level projected offense to Jerrod Saltalamacchia.
This is cute, since you're arguing against yourself. If we go back to the point of this thread, there's a lot of other things that we don't have hard data on re: Salty that could be additional reasons why the Red Sox benched him in the World Series and why Jon Lester didn't throw to him. You're saying that because we know his pitch framing is bad we're putting too much emphasis on that, but given that he has never had a reputation as a good defensive catcher and the Marlins have no decided to eat millions of dollars rather than keep him on the team, I'd suspect it's just that he sucks at a lot of things, framing being one of them.Plympton91 said:
Maybe, but that assumes what Maddux liked was Eddie Perez's pitch framing, when it also could have been that he and Perez were more likely to agree about what pitch to throw, or that Perez's ability to block pitches in the dirt made him more aggressive when throwing his breaking pitches, or maybe even that Perez had a better sense of humor that helped control pressure situations. Your post is a classic illustration of the lamppost fallacy -- we can measure pitch framing and Perez was a good pitch framer so of course that was why Maddux preferred throwing to him. Of course. Has to be.
Kevin Jewkilis said:The flip side to Salty's offense is his shockingly bad defense. Last year, his poor pitch framing cost the Marlins about 20 runs. That's before you introduce other elements of catcher defense, where Salty has also been below average. Salty was born a generation too late for his skill set. As teams learn more about catcher defense and pitch framing, the potential for flashy offensive stats is no longer enough.
jon abbey said:He's supposed to be one of the worst catchers at pitch framing also, that's not helping his case.
Plympton91 said:
That's exactly what I was getting at. In particular, understand the limits of the statistical metric some in this thread are now claiming is the be all and end all of catcher value because of some outlier result for Jose Molina 2 years ago.
And, also, might be symptomatic of any team that prefers Sandy freakin' Leon and his sub-Kevin-Cash-level projected offense to Jerrod Saltalamacchia.
Plympton91 said:
That's exactly what I was getting at. In particular, understand the limits of the statistical metric some in this thread are now claiming is the be all and end all of catcher value because of some outlier result for Jose Molina 2 years ago.
And, also, might be symptomatic of any team that prefers Sandy freakin' Leon and his sub-Kevin-Cash-level projected offense to Jerrod Saltalamacchia.
Toe Nash said:This is cute, since you're arguing against yourself. If we go back to the point of this thread, there's a lot of other things that we don't have hard data on re: Salty that could be additional reasons why the Red Sox benched him in the World Series and why Jon Lester didn't throw to him. You're saying that because we know his pitch framing is bad we're putting too much emphasis on that, but given that he has never had a reputation as a good defensive catcher and the Marlins have no decided to eat millions of dollars rather than keep him on the team, I'd suspect it's just that he sucks at a lot of things, framing being one of them.
BroodsSexton said:OK--just so we're clear, the bolded statement isn't true, right? Because what sits above your quote are the only two previous references to framing in this thread, and they do exactly the opposite of what you've asserted, i.e., they suggest framing is just one factor to be considered along with others.
But it's the second paragraph that confirms for me there's no real method to your complaint, because you're comparing apples and oranges, i.e., the defense of Sandy Leon (his presumptive comparative advantage) to the offense of Saltalamacchia (though as SJH points out, even that isn't a given). Unless you have some way of actually comparing the relative benefit of defense vs. offense to the team, you're just a grumpy old man. Ahh well, this was a nice diversion.
joe dokes said:
Salt wasn't available when they got Leon. And as a FA making millions for sitting at home, his agent may have already given the signal that he's not signing to be a backup. Or the Sox -- scouts, FO, Farrell -- predicted this *exact* career path. Devolving from a below average catcher whose hitting might give him value to an even worse defensive catcher who cant hit.
Max Power said:Molina's terrible pitch framing must be the reason the Cardinals lost those six games this year. He must feel awful about it.
There's something wrong w/ BP's model though. On StatCorner, Molina is the 19th ranked catcher by cumulative RAA, and adds +.54 calls a game. Last season he added +.18 calls a game. BP's model is more complicated but I'm not necessarily certain that it's better - there are definitely a lot of things that don't get past even a slight bit of scrutiny. There are a lot of catchers that have dropped off a cliff in terms of pitch framing according to BP - Lucroy, Conger, Hanigan, Mccann, Gomes, etc. I think Hanigan (as someone I actually watched) is informative here - BP's model has him being a worse framer than Leon, who is already really bad (while StatCorner's more simple model has Hanigan as above average and Leon still as abysmal). When you look at the stats of the pitching staff when pitching to Hanigan (4.34 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 3.69 BB/9) vs. pitching to Leon (6.38 ERA, 7.86 K/9, 4.2 BB/9), BP should ask if Hanigan really has been worse than Leon...Rudy Pemberton said:Speaking of pitch framing...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yadier-molina-forgot-how-to-frame-a-pitch/
Plympton91 said:
I believe at least in the second quote, the "other factor" being considered was his 2-29 season opening slump.
And by "some way of actually comparing the relative benefit of defense vs. offense" you mean one that requires a spreadsheet right? 45 years of playing and watching baseball and a Ph.D. in applied statistics providing lots of training in spotting bullshit masquerading as statistical analysis only qualify you for grumpy old man status, right.
That would be reasonable, and it must be the case that the Red Sox feel that way or they'd be pursuing him, right? But, that just gets back to the discussion killing conclusion of "Don't question the front office, they have more resources than you do." O.k., then, let's shut down the Board, or make a rule that only praise of the front office is allowed.
That's true. Here's a breakdown of games between common pitchers caught:Rudy Pemberton said:They haven't caught the same pitchers, though. A higher % of the innings that Leon has caught has gone to Wade Miley, who is extremely wild. Is Miley "harder to frame" perhaps? I don't know, but he might be. They've also had different umpires calling their games, right?
Sprowl said:
The Red Sox may be punting this season already. None of the starters look ace-worthy yet, and there's no point in trading for a #1 pitcher if all the other starters are #4 or #5. If Vazquez' defense was all that it appeared to be in 2014, we should expect below-average framing results while Swihart gains experience. Swihart, Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo and Bradley collectively are likely to be much better in 2016 than 2015, yet they'll be playing quite a lot in 2015. There's no point in giving Swihart's at-bats to toasted Salty.
Sprowl said:....
The Red Sox may be punting this season already. None of the starters look ace-worthy yet, and there's no point in trading for a #1 pitcher if all the other starters are #4 or #5. If Vazquez' defense was all that it appeared to be in 2014, we should expect below-average framing results while Swihart gains experience. Swihart, Betts, Bogaerts, Castillo and Bradley collectively are likely to be much better in 2016 than 2015, yet they'll be playing quite a lot in 2015. There's no point in giving Swihart's at-bats to toasted Salty.
Based on that data...guess who is number one in the ML? Francisco Cervelli. Yeah, THAT fucking guy.Rudy Pemberton said:Speaking of pitch framing...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yadier-molina-forgot-how-to-frame-a-pitch/
Harry Hooper said:
Well, there is if you want to delay the free agent clock on Swihart (and maybe Bogaerts too).
mauidano said:Based on that data...guess who is number one in the ML? Francisco Cervelli. Yeah, THAT fucking guy.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819124
Plympton91 said:
That's exactly what I was getting at. In particular, understand the limits of the statistical metric some in this thread are now claiming is the be all and end all of catcher value because of some outlier result for Jose Molina 2 years ago.
And, also, might be symptomatic of any team that prefers Sandy freakin' Leon and his sub-Kevin-Cash-level projected offense to Jerrod Saltalamacchia.
TomRicardo said:
Swihart can't get a full year of service this year regardless if he is up or not going forward.
Harry Hooper said:
Yeah, but there's next year too. More problematic to delay him going north if he's already done months in MLB.
Really nailed it with this I think. "The thing about pitch framing is that a stolen strike or a lost strike can have a cascading effect on an at bat, an inning or even a game"Snodgrass'Muff said:
The thing about pitch framing is that a stolen strike or a lost strike can have a cascading effect on an at bat, an inning or even a game. It's never going to possible to fully quantify the impact of good or bad pitch framers any more than it will be possible to precisely quantify the impact of a defender with good or bad range over whatever sample you want to look at. There is no such thing as a perfect statistic and so every statistic you reference should be used while keeping the appropriate context in mind.
The idea that anyone is using pitch framing and nothing else to determine catcher value is silly. Framing is new and shiny and exciting, so people talk about it a lot, but I'd be surprised if Plympton could find a single example of anyone, anywhere on this site or in the Red Sox front office who fit this straw man argument: