12.3
[Red card if] denying the opposing team a goal or an obvious goal-scoring opportunity by a handball offence (except a goalkeeper within their penalty area).
No wiggle room as soon as it stops it from being a goal scoring opportunity it's a red card. Intentional unintentional does not matter.
I'm not an expert on the rules by any means, but I think this skips a step. Per the quoted language, it first needs to be a "handball offense" not just any "handball." And the
rules only makes a handball into a handball offense if it meets certain criteria, and explicitly says that not every touch of the ball with the hand/arm is an "offense."
HANDLING THE BALL
For the purposes of determining handball offences, the upper boundary of the arm is in line with the bottom of the armpit. Not every touch of a player’s hand/arm with the ball is an offence.
It is an offence if a player:
- deliberately touches the ball with their hand/arm, for example moving the hand/arm towards the ball
- touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised
- scores in the opponents' goal:
- directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper
- immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental
You can argue either of the first two bullet points apply (his arm was moving forward, which is explicitly identified as an example of deliberately touching the ball in the first bullet, and his arm was out from the body a bit), but I do think it's not an automimic red once the ball hits an arm that blocks a GSO, there's a still the initial analysis if the handball qualifies as an offense.