McAdam: “Full Throttle” may mean business as usual

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Even if he's constrained by Henry and Co in the same way Bloom was, Bloom did a poor job of 2023 Roster construction. The "take my ball and go home" approach pivoting from Eovaldi to Jansen was a mistake as was the string of sub replacement level 2B they trotted out there.

There are still several moves to be made, but if Bloom was still in charge, would any one of us be surprised with the current roster being unchanged on opening day? I've been pretty critical of this as being more of the same, but even I have to recognize that judging Breslow solely on half an offseason is dumb.
I don’t think the judgment or criticism is being placed on Breslow nor should it be. GM’s make the calls on scrap heap/diamond in the rough guys. Owners make the call on high 8 to 9 figure deals. All of the negativity should be directed to the ownership level for how this team has fared since ‘18.
 

snowmanny

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Don't forget Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, JD Drew, Josh Beckett, JDMartinez, Rick Porcello, David Price, Diasuke Matsuzaka , Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke and Chris Sale. And also home grown stars like Betts and Bogaerts and Lester.
But not all those guys were top-of-the-market acquisitions. Two of them were.
The Red Sox have had two “top of the market” players who contributed to the four titles? See above. I should have included Lackey too, probably. They threw their financial might around for ages.

And this ownership went out and got other top of the market players like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and -a different market but still the top - Yoan Moncada - who never contributed to a title.

Maybe what they are doing now makes sense in the context of where the team is at right now and who is out there, but it isn’t the same as what they’ve done all along, and it’s not exactly what brought them all those titles. Those titles mostly had big stars and high payrolls in addition to the players you mentioned.
 

chawson

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None of the young guys you list were ever expected to be cornerstones of the team possibly besides Verdugo. The fact that a top 5 player in baseball was traded for 2 of them is a lot of the reason why the team is in this mess as well. Looking back, you could argue that the Mookie trade was the sign that the ownership group was out on long-term big money deals for players outside the organization.

It’s nice that they’ve done well on discounts. But, if you’re out on acquiring premium talent then the ceiling of a team will always be lower.
Sure but this is a different conversation. And there’s no evidence that they’re “out on acquiring premium talent.”

It’s definitely not evident in Cotillo’s ridiculous “scoop” this morning, which suggests more than anything else a kind of fundamental ignorance of operating standards for teams in the CBT era. Next week, maybe he’ll try to prove to us the FO is cheap because they paid Nick Yorke nearly $1M under his recommended slot amount when they drafted him in 2020.

I don't think ownership always shopped for discounts but it feels like they have always erred on the side of conservatism in handing out contracts.

That said, the market for MLB talent seems to have shifted away from them in terms of both evaluation as well as what teams will pay for top production. If this is correct, it would explain why their approach isn't yielding as much fruit. The talent market is far more efficient so you can't outclever people there and their financial constraints are such that they cannot compete with the big market teams for the best players.

This doesn't mean they can't win - if everything breaks right for a season they could absolutely get hot and win it all. They just aren't likely to build a sustainable contender without paying up (and taking risks) for the best players.
I really liked your post a few days ago, about the labor share of revenues in MLB being constantly slipping lower and lower. I agree 100 percent that it’s a problem, and that ownerships, and certainly FSG among them, need to spend more.

I disagree, though, that their talent evaluation has especially slipped (certainly in a few cases). I think the elephant in the room is that they’re seeing fewer FAs choose Boston than in previous years. I’ve been harping on this point since like 2017-18 as it pertains to starting pitching, and I’ve said more than a few times that I believe it’s the missing clue to the Mookie saga.

This has been a known unknown. The Red Sox are definitely not going to pay lip service in any way to the notion that players are declining to play in Boston. (Pick your social/cultural/economic/geographic reason why that is, but the media — a large and uncharitable chunk of it anyway — really has to be right up there for some players.)

Meanwhile, they’re waiting for a core to develop, and it almost has. Have they guessed right on all accounts? Absolutely not. Should they have made Mookie turn down 12/$450M? I don’t know! I have also been spectacularly wrong. I wanted us to sign, at certain points, Schwarber, E-Rod, Stroman, Springer, Ozuna (yikes), and Correa over the last four years. I don’t think any of those guys would have added more than a win or two over the team we’ve got now, and would have resulted in higher payrolls (which I don’t care about; draft picks I do) and, crucially, less opportunity for certain young players to develop. I think it is way, way better for us to know what we know about Crawford right now than to have paid Marcus Stroman 2/$50 for the extra couple wins. (Plus however many million more than the Cubs’ offer it would have taken to get Stroman — by many accounts a Kyrie Irving-type persona — if either party wanted him in Boston).
 

jbupstate

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Even if he's constrained by Henry and Co in the same way Bloom was, Bloom did a poor job of 2023 Roster construction. The "take my ball and go home" approach pivoting from Eovaldi to Jansen was a mistake as was the string of sub replacement level 2B they trotted out there.

There are still several moves to be made, but if Bloom was still in charge, would any one of us be surprised with the current roster being unchanged on opening day? I've been pretty critical of this as being more of the same, but even I have to recognize that judging Breslow solely on half an offseason is dumb.
The Sox bullpen in 2022 was a huge problem and some investment was required. If I recall, the available 2B last offseason were terrible.
 

simplicio

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Agreed, and I believe the general tenor of the board with the Kenley signing was thank God they're fixing the bullpen problem.
 

Rovin Romine

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All of the negativity should be directed to the ownership level for how this team has fared since ‘18.
The FSG stood on the shoah of the haboah. And I saw a non-compehetivah club arise out of the Fenway. It had ten free agents and seven arb players, with ten league average pitchers, and on each head a thou-are-not-fucking-Pedro. The non-compehetivah club I saw resembled a Tamper Bay, but had a manager like those of an Astro and a GM like that of a Yalie. The FSG gave the non-compehetivah club its powah and its post-seasons and great authority. One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, put thereon by the RIGHTEOUS FAN, but the fatal wound had been healed by the power of spin. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the non-compehetivah club. People worshiped the FSG because it had given authority to the non-compehetivah club, and they also worshiped the non-compehetivah club and asked, “Who is like the non-compehetivah club? Who can win a series against it? Even though Alex Corah is a cheating shitbag who can't manage a bullpen?”

The non-compehetivah club was given a press conference to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for one hundred-and sixty-two games. It opened its mouth to blaspheme the Great Mookie Betts, whose ass the faithful live to tongue, and to slander his name and his dwelling place and those who live in Los Angles. It was given power to wage war against the Dodger Blues and to games them and win more ringz. And it was given authority over every tribe, people, language and nation, even Maine. All inhabitants of the Sox Nation will worship the non-compehetivah club—all whose names have not been written in the Shag-nasty book of eternal child-like whining, the pissant who has kvetched from the creation of the club, or at least since October 29, 2018.
 
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Sausage in Section 17

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The FSG stood on the shoah of the haboah. And I saw a non-compehetivah club arise out of the Fenway. It had ten free agents and seven arb players, with ten league average pitchers, and on each head a thou-are-not-fucking-Pedro. The non-compehetivah club I saw resembled a Tamper Bay, but had a manager like those of an Astro and a GM like that of a Yalie. The FSG gave the non-compehetivah club its powah and its post-seasons and great authority. One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, put thereon by the RIGHTEOUS FAN, but the fatal wound had been healed by the power of spin. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the non-compehetivah club. People worshiped the FSG because it had given authority to the non-compehetivah club, and they also worshiped the non-compehetivah club and asked, “Who is like the non-compehetivah club? Who can win a series against it? Even though Alex Corah is a cheating shitbag who can't manage a bullpen?”

The non-compehetivah club was given a press conference to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for one hundred-and sixty-two games. It opened its mouth to blaspheme the Great Mookie Betts, whose ass the faithful live to tongue, and to slander his name and his dwelling place and those who live in Los Angles. It was given power to wage war against the Dodger Blues and to games them and win more ringz. And it was given authority over every tribe, people, language and nation, even Maine. All inhabitants of the Sox Nation will worship the non-compehetivah club—all whose names have not been written in the Shag-nasty book of eternal child-like whining, the pissant who has kvetched from the creation of the club, or at least since October 29, 2018.
75919
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Sure but this is a different conversation. And there’s no evidence that they’re “out on acquiring premium talent.”

It’s definitely not evident in Cotillo’s ridiculous “scoop” this morning, which suggests more than anything else a kind of fundamental ignorance of operating standards for teams in the CBT era. Next week, maybe he’ll try to prove to us the FO is cheap because they paid Nick Yorke nearly $1M under his recommended slot amount when they drafted him in 2020.



I really liked your post a few days ago, about the labor share of revenues in MLB being constantly slipping lower and lower. I agree 100 percent that it’s a problem, and that ownerships, and certainly FSG among them, need to spend more.

I disagree, though, that their talent evaluation has especially slipped (certainly in a few cases). I think the elephant in the room is that they’re seeing fewer FAs choose Boston than in previous years. I’ve been harping on this point since like 2017-18 as it pertains to starting pitching, and I’ve said more than a few times that I believe it’s the missing clue to the Mookie saga.

This has been a known unknown. The Red Sox are definitely not going to pay lip service in any way to the notion that players are declining to play in Boston. (Pick your social/cultural/economic/geographic reason why that is, but the media — a large and uncharitable chunk of it anyway — really has to be right up there for some players.)

Meanwhile, they’re waiting for a core to develop, and it almost has. Have they guessed right on all accounts? Absolutely not. Should they have made Mookie turn down 12/$450M? I don’t know! I have also been spectacularly wrong. I wanted us to sign, at certain points, Schwarber, E-Rod, Stroman, Springer, Ozuna (yikes), and Correa over the last four years. I don’t think any of those guys would have added more than a win or two over the team we’ve got now, and would have resulted in higher payrolls (which I don’t care about; draft picks I do) and, crucially, less opportunity for certain young players to develop. I think it is way, way better for us to know what we know about Crawford right now than to have paid Marcus Stroman 2/$50 for the extra couple wins. (Plus however many million more than the Cubs’ offer it would have taken to get Stroman — by many accounts a Kyrie Irving-type persona — if either party wanted him in Boston).
Happy new year.

First, just for sake of clarity, it was another poster who highlighted the labor share of revenues stat if that is what you are referring to - though I also am fine with players getting as much as possible.

Also, regarding the team's inability to attract FA, they can simply bridge the gap with money. If you have to pay a Boston premium, so be it. That includes keeping key players they develop - even if they want full market value (think Casas to avoid re-litigating the past).

Of course it isn't my money and they are rational economic actors. Its easy to see why they choose not to get in an arms race with teams who have have owners who can more easily take on the risks of these contacts.
 

EyeBob

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Without actual numbers for a YY offer being leaked, this pursuit looks a lot more like their negotiations with X, where they are looking to come to deal that is structured around it being team friendly, otherwise they're going to be outbid.

As I posted in one of the other threads, it may be that YY was always going to go back to the Dodgers and give them a chance to match, but it also looks like he was motivated to get the biggest deal for a SP:
  1. The Mets had the biggest offer, topping Cole's total.
  2. The Yankees had a higher AAV, but not enough to top Cole's deal.
  3. (It seems) the Dodgers weren't offering a deal at these levels before YY's market got set, they could sit back and have to just match the offers
  4. I think it seems pretty clear, that after their meeting in L.A. they weren't seen as a serious contender by YY's camp, and didn't warrant a visit, even if it was only to drum up a larger offer to take back to the Dodgers.
My guess is that for the Sox to be real players they would've had to come in at somewhere around $370M - topping Cole's deal even if he opts out (and then has it guaranteed with another year per the option structure). Going to $370M/ 10 years would've been really aggressive, but topped Cole in both total value and AAV. Maybe the Dodgers would still have topped that, but it would've made that much more difficult... Maybe they try a take it or leave it offer, or maybe everyone knew he was going to give L.A. the chance to match anyway and the Sox bowed out, ultimately we'll have to wait to see if any terms leak...

Regardless, I think it's safe to say the Sox were just competitive enough to get some media hits, but not much else.
Well said. My view as well. Make the Dodgers match a massive deal or make YY leave a lot of dinero on the table to go where he wanted to go (the Dodgers). I doubt the Sox did that, which is fine, but that would be the only way to get YY.
 

KingChre

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Well said. My view as well. Make the Dodgers match a massive deal or make YY leave a lot of dinero on the table to go where he wanted to go (the Dodgers). I doubt the Sox did that, which is fine, but that would be the only way to get YY.
This is one of these times where I really wish I had posted earlier so I don't come off like Captain Hindsight, but I think it was obvious from the get go this was the only realistic chance they had to acquire YY.

If the front office actually thought they were going to be a realistic contender for Yamamoto by offering a team friendly deal when the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets were publicly intrigued by the player as well, then they need to readjust their own view of the current status of the organization. In particular as a free agent destination.
 

Rovin Romine

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If the front office actually thought they were going to be a realistic contender for Yamamoto by offering a team friendly deal when the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets were publicly intrigued by the player as well, then they need to readjust their own view of the current status of the organization. In particular as a free agent destination.
You think they offered YY a "team friendly deal?"
 

OCD SS

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As mentioned in my post that these are responding to, I think they met with YY and got a sense of the offers and determined the deal was going to be more than they wanted to give a pitcher. Maybe they were hoping to leverage Masa to make Boston an appealing destination, I dunno.

the relevant part for this thread is that the reason he didn’t come to Boston is because at that point the Sox were not serious bidders. This is the offseason the Sox have payroll flexibility, and there was elite talent to spend that on, and they were not in the running.

I think at this point everyone should put their “keeping the powder dry” for Soto, or Bieber, or Sasaki, of whomever posts away. The Sox should be considered out on those guys until this ownership group proves otherwise.
 

joe dokes

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Given the reports that they have to shed salary to sign a targeted free agent and stay under the threshold, I would say that all signs point toward them offering what would have been a team friendly deal.
What about the "reports" that had them offering 300M? (or maybe that fits within the definition of "team-friendly"?)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Given the reports that they have to shed salary to sign a targeted free agent and stay under the threshold, I would say that all signs point toward them offering what would have been a team friendly deal.
If the salary shedding/staying under the threshold rumor is true (which I don't believe is), either they never would have been in on YY considering where the market for him was clearly headed OR they changed tack after missing out on him because he was the only player they were willing to go over the threshold for. Either way, I don't believe for a second that whatever offer they may have made to wasn't 100% intended to be competitive and serious. Doesn't mean it ultimately was competitive, but when you have the spending titans of the game involved, the Sox are going to come up short every time. History demonstrates that irrefutably.
 

BeantownIdaho

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What about the "reports" that had them offering 300M? (or maybe that fits within the definition of "team-friendly"?)
It was also reported that those "300 mil offers" were incorrect. The newest "reports" seem to support that idea if they are trying to stay under the threshold and shed salary to be able to sign someone.
 

sezwho

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Given the reports that they have to shed salary to sign a targeted free agent and stay under the threshold, I would say that all signs point toward them offering what would have been a team friendly deal.
I’m still not sure this has risen to the level of ‘report’ yet.


As mentioned in my post that these are responding to, I think they met with YY and got a sense of the offers and determined the deal was going to be more than they wanted to give a pitcher. Maybe they were hoping to leverage Masa to make Boston an appealing destination, I dunno.

the relevant part for this thread is that the reason he didn’t come to Boston is because at that point the Sox were not serious bidders. This is the offseason the Sox have payroll flexibility, and there was elite talent to spend that on, and they were not in the running.

I think at this point everyone should put their “keeping the powder dry” for Soto, or Bieber, or Sasaki, of whomever posts away. The Sox should be considered out on those guys until this ownership group proves otherwise.
Merloni had an interesting observation on the latest Carrabis podcast, which was essentially if they had an offer to be proud of we would have heard it a la recent Yankees, Toronto, Mets offer leaks.

I don’t think the big money days will be here again any time soon, but I do trust Breslow to lean into pitching development and acquisition in a way that will produce winners even at a ~ 225 level if necessary.

Don’t like to dwell on it too much, but the combo of out of towners, lyrical band box looky-loos, random dropins, and the eternally grateful may mean a return to the top of market is never necessary again. Have to sell a lot of extra tickets to pay 40million of YY plus the tax.
 

Rovin Romine

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By team friendly meaning a lot lower then they needed to be to be considered seriously by Yamamoto, then yes.
1) That's not what "team friendly" means.

2) Occam's Razor says they made a serious bid. Not that this was some kind of elaborate deception to troll "fans" who already hate the club. Fans who are so clever to have seen through such.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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so.... they need it to be a team friendly deal.
I did NOT say that. I said that they're not going to outbid the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers if they're all going after the same player because they never have before. That doesn't mean they're unwilling to pay retail price for a free agent at all. Team friendly, to me, suggests a contract that is below retail price and intentionally so (like the Braves have with Ozzie Albies or Ronald Acuna). Being outbid by itself doesn't mean the offer was "team friendly" in the least.
 

joe dokes

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It was also reported that those "300 mil offers" were incorrect. The newest "reports" seem to support that idea if they are trying to stay under the threshold and shed salary to be able to sign someone.
Wasn't the shedding "report" one tweet? (I don't pay close attention to the socials on sports).
 

chawson

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Dude, GTFO with this. There’s not just one way to message board. You’re not above or a better fan than anyone else here. Stop being a condescending fucking asshole all the time. Not every dissenting view has to be deemed some mouth breathing, EEI calling perspective and I’m truly sick of it.
You being unable to understand something doesn't mean I'm being condescending.

Happy new year.

First, just for sake of clarity, it was another poster who highlighted the labor share of revenues stat if that is what you are referring to - though I also am fine with players getting as much as possible.

Also, regarding the team's inability to attract FA, they can simply bridge the gap with money. If you have to pay a Boston premium, so be it. That includes keeping key players they develop - even if they want full market value (think Casas to avoid re-litigating the past).

Of course it isn't my money and they are rational economic actors. Its easy to see why they choose not to get in an arms race with teams who have have owners who can more easily take on the risks of these contacts.
Happy new year. I meant your post here (in the salary cap thread) though you’re right someone else linked the research on declining labor share of revenues.

I don’t think it’s always possible to bridge the gap with money. There’s a divide on this and it comes up time to time — some believe that money’s the deciding factor no matter what. I don’t.

And I think it's a factor in attracting free agents that the media and fans have turned on, varyingly, virtually all players who have signed long-term deals here. Nomar, Price, Sale, Manny, Beckett, Eovaldi, Daisuke, Hanley, Sandoval, Lackey, Castillo, Foulke, Drew. Some of those guys surely were guilty of poor play, but not all of them.

David Price's 118 ERA- over the four years he was here (his age 30-33 seasons) was better than Jordan Montgomery's 117 ERA+ over his last four (his age 27-30 seasons, more in his prime). Yet the majority of the fan base wanted Price gone, and are going to howl once Montgomery signs elsewhere.

We're seeing it with the frustration with Yamamoto. A lot of posters want to believe that Henry's cheap because Yamamoto signed elsewhere. As if it's not totally reasonable for a Japanese star to prefer the West Coast! By all indications, the Sox genuinely were in on him and assured him the money would be there if he made his decision. They didn't lead with an offer (so as to give other teams a chance to match it). There were reports that he was going to decide the fit, and "the money would follow," which I took to mean contract terms and formal offer.
 
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YTF

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Given the reports that they have to shed salary to sign a targeted free agent and stay under the threshold, I would say that all signs point toward them offering what would have been a team friendly deal.
You don't know the source or context of those "reports", nor do I. So let me ask you this, if the Sox are indeed looking to "shed salary" could it be possible that is with the eye toward making multiple moves rather than just one? Might that $10M in savings after the Sale trade have been enough to get them at the level that they can bring in the player(s) that they are now targeting and still stay under the threshold? Do they need to move another player to get to where they want to be? My answer is that we don't know, which is kind of my point.
 
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chrisfont9

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The FSG stood on the shoah of the haboah. And I saw a non-compehetivah club arise out of the Fenway. It had ten free agents and seven arb players, with ten league average pitchers, and on each head a thou-are-not-fucking-Pedro. The non-compehetivah club I saw resembled a Tamper Bay, but had a manager like those of an Astro and a GM like that of a Yalie. The FSG gave the non-compehetivah club its powah and its post-seasons and great authority. One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, put thereon by the RIGHTEOUS FAN, but the fatal wound had been healed by the power of spin. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the non-compehetivah club. People worshiped the FSG because it had given authority to the non-compehetivah club, and they also worshiped the non-compehetivah club and asked, “Who is like the non-compehetivah club? Who can win a series against it? Even though Alex Corah is a cheating shitbag who can't manage a bullpen?”

The non-compehetivah club was given a press conference to utter proud words and blasphemies and to exercise its authority for one hundred-and sixty-two games. It opened its mouth to blaspheme the Great Mookie Betts, whose ass the faithful live to tongue, and to slander his name and his dwelling place and those who live in Los Angles. It was given power to wage war against the Dodger Blues and to games them and win more ringz. And it was given authority over every tribe, people, language and nation, even Maine. All inhabitants of the Sox Nation will worship the non-compehetivah club—all whose names have not been written in the Shag-nasty book of eternal child-like whining, the pissant who has kvetched from the creation of the club, or at least since October 29, 2018.
Melvillian. Chapeau.
 

chrisfont9

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If the salary shedding/staying under the threshold rumor is true (which I don't believe is), either they never would have been in on YY considering where the market for him was clearly headed OR they changed tack after missing out on him because he was the only player they were willing to go over the threshold for. Either way, I don't believe for a second that whatever offer they may have made to wasn't 100% intended to be competitive and serious. Doesn't mean it ultimately was competitive, but when you have the spending titans of the game involved, the Sox are going to come up short every time. History demonstrates that irrefutably.
Where I'm at too. There's a sweet spot where they will probably go after guys at the top, but it's not as indiscriminate as we might assume. But at least in the SP market none of the other teams are still flinging money around like we might have expected in the wake of the Yamamoto deal. All signs point to agents saying "the YY market is the new market now!" and the teams saying "oh hell no it isn't!" It's been over a week and none of the other supposed finalists or would-be finalists have gone and scooped up Montgomery, Snell or anyone else -- except the Sox signing Giolito at a pre-YY price.
 

simplicio

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David Price's 118 ERA- over the four years he was here (his age 30-33 seasons) was better than Jordan Montgomery's 117 ERA+ over his last four (his age 27-30 seasons, more in his prime). Yet the majority of the fan base wanted Price gone, and are going to howl once Montgomery signs elsewhere.
A little outside the scope of your point here, but what we got in Price was the breakdown of a body that had just thrown too much. The dude pitched an insane number of innings in his 20s, and we got a couple of those, but also two where his time was cut very short by mounting injuries.

One of the reasons I worry less about Montgomery aging is he only has 755 MLB innings on his arm through age 30. Price at the same point had 1671 and then started the injuries at age 31. Sale had 1629 and his troubles had already begun.
 

teddywingman

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I think it's possible that the random success of the 2021 team tricked the owners into thinking it was repeatable, or more easily so.

4 World Series championships and all, but I fucking hate these guys.
 

Quatchie

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I'd love them to shed Story, but recognize that creates another hole but I took some of these reports as shedding salary to mean Jansen based on speculation he is going to be dealt.
 

Rovin Romine

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A little outside the scope of your point here, but what we got in Price was the breakdown of a body that had just thrown too much. The dude pitched an insane number of innings in his 20s, and we got a couple of those, but also two where his time was cut very short by mounting injuries.

One of the reasons I worry less about Montgomery aging is he only has 755 MLB innings on his arm through age 30. Price at the same point had 1671 and then started the injuries at age 31. Sale had 1629 and his troubles had already begun.
To add a bit of nuance to that Montgomery's already had TJ surgery, and he's just thrown 218 innings (including the post season) this past year.

His recent two years have been good, he might be in the clear, but I'm not sure he gets a pass for already being injured.
 

OCD SS

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2) Occam's Razor says they made a serious bid. Not that this was some kind of elaborate deception to troll "fans" who already hate the club. Fans who are so clever to have seen through such.
I disagree: Occam's Razor says that they met in L.A. and discussed parameters of a deal, and then they were not serious, so there was no trip to Boston.

I don't think this had anything to do with "trolling fans who hate the club." I think the team benefits from the perception that they will spend money at the top of the market and will be competitive. After all they've finished last 2 seasons in a row and have season tickets to sell. I think it's safe to say that having a good off-season, or even just an exciting one that generates hope for the coming season does help with revenues.

We've seen this sort of off-season with stupid signings blow up in our faces the way everyone more or less expected - singing Panda & Hanley say "hi." But as we look at how the Ownership and the FO is going to construct the team I do think it makes sense to parse out the moves they've made so we can chart a path for the future, since they're certainly not going to tell us.
 

simplicio

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Story's defense at short this fall, stretched out to a full season, would have been the best in baseball at any position by DRS, OAA and RAA, and top 3 by UZR.
I'd love them to shed Story, but recognize that creates another hole but I took some of these reports as shedding salary to mean Jansen based on speculation he is going to be dealt.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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You being unable to understand something doesn't mean I'm being condescending.



Happy new year. I meant your post here (in the salary cap thread) though you’re right someone else linked the research on declining labor share of revenues.

I don’t think it’s always possible to bridge the gap with money. There’s a divide on this and it comes up time to time — some believe that money’s the deciding factor no matter what. I don’t.

And I think it's a factor in attracting free agents that the media and fans have turned on, varyingly, virtually all players who have signed long-term deals here. Nomar, Price, Sale, Manny, Beckett, Eovaldi, Daisuke, Hanley, Sandoval, Lackey, Castillo, Foulke, Drew. Some of those guys surely were guilty of poor play, but not all of them.

David Price's 118 ERA- over the four years he was here (his age 30-33 seasons) was better than Jordan Montgomery's 117 ERA+ over his last four (his age 27-30 seasons, more in his prime). Yet the majority of the fan base wanted Price gone, and are going to howl once Montgomery signs elsewhere.

We're seeing it with the frustration with Yamamoto. A lot of posters want to believe that Henry's cheap because Yamamoto signed elsewhere. As if it's not totally reasonable for a Japanese star to prefer the West Coast! By all indications, the Sox genuinely were in on him and assured him the money would be there if he made his decision. They didn't lead with an offer (so as to give other teams a chance to match it). There were reports that he was going to decide the fit, and "the money would follow," which I took to mean contract terms and formal offer.
Money bridges gaps in almost all cases in my experience. If Boston isn't as attractive as LA or NYC, you find the amount that makes it doable. Employers do this all the time for sought after candidates.

Maybe everyone doesn't have a price but most do. FSG isn't interested in paying it apparently.
 
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chawson

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A little outside the scope of your point here, but what we got in Price was the breakdown of a body that had just thrown too much. The dude pitched an insane number of innings in his 20s, and we got a couple of those, but also two where his time was cut very short by mounting injuries.

One of the reasons I worry less about Montgomery aging is he only has 755 MLB innings on his arm through age 30. Price at the same point had 1671 and then started the injuries at age 31. Sale had 1629 and his troubles had already begun.
Outside the scope of the point I was making but it’s a good point too — though partly to do with Price being promoted at such a young age and throwing fewer MiLB innings.

The whole comparison adds complexity to an already difficult process of evaluating FA starters. When does durability (a good thing!) cross the line into attrition and overuse? I think the bigger-framed dudes tend to hold up better (Price and Montgomery both apply), but it’s no sure thing (Price, Bumgarner, Porcello, others).
 

Rovin Romine

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I disagree: Occam's Razor says that they met in L.A. and discussed parameters of a deal, and then they were not serious, so there was no trip to Boston.

I don't think this had anything to do with "trolling fans who hate the club." I think the team benefits from the perception that they will spend money at the top of the market and will be competitive. After all they've finished last 2 seasons in a row and have season tickets to sell. I think it's safe to say that having a good off-season, or even just an exciting one that generates hope for the coming season does help with revenues.

We've seen this sort of off-season with stupid signings blow up in our faces the way everyone more or less expected - singing Panda & Hanley say "hi." But as we look at how the Ownership and the FO is going to construct the team I do think it makes sense to parse out the moves they've made so we can chart a path for the future, since they're certainly not going to tell us.
There were multiple reports they made a second offer and were in the final mix of interested teams. Would they have bothered to keep going if they were not serious after the initial LA meeting? Or would they have pivoted as other teams did and singed a mid-tier starter prior to the YY signing as insurance?

I don't think it benefits the club at all to "be seen" by the fans as being wiling to spend money, and I don't think the average fan will recall whether they were in or out on Ohtani and YY. Even here, we're seeing fact-free posting on the subject. However, I think it benefits them re: free agents and their agent-representatives. But that's something of a closed circle.

We agree re: the importance to the fan base for actually having a good off-season, plus the idiocy of the two prior signings you referenced (Panda far more so than Hanley.)

Money bridges gaps in almost all cases in my experience. If Boston isn't as attractive as LA or NYC, you find the amount that makes it doable. Employers do this all the time for sought after candidates.

Maybe everyone doesn't have a price but most do. FSG isn't interested in paying it apparently.
You've had a lot of experience choosing between multiple generational-wealth deals in your 20s?
 

BringBackMo

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the relevant part for this thread is that the reason he didn’t come to Boston is because at that point the Sox were not serious bidders. This is the offseason the Sox have payroll flexibility, and there was elite talent to spend that on, and they were not in the running.

I think at this point everyone should put their “keeping the powder dry” for Soto, or Bieber, or Sasaki, of whomever posts away. The Sox should be considered out on those guys until this ownership group proves otherwise.
Why didn’t Yamamoto go to the Yankees or the Mets? Is it because they weren’t serious bidders? Is it possible to be a serious bidder and still not win the bidding?

Whether the Red Sox should be considered a serious destination for any of the other players you listed is directly related to the level of interest that the Yankees and the New Yankees (aka the Dodgers) have in them. As has been pointed out many times lately, the Red Sox have essentially never come away with the prize when competing with the Yankees for a free agent. That includes the many decades of Red Sox ownership prior to the Henry group, and it includes the two decades and four titles of the Henry ownership group. This phenomenon is not limited to the Red Sox, of course. It includes the rest of baseball.
 

Harry Hooper

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Why didn’t Yamamoto go to the Yankees or the Mets? Is it because they weren’t serious bidders? Is it possible to be a serious bidder and still not win the bidding?

Whether the Red Sox should be considered a serious destination for any of the other players you listed is directly related to the level of interest that the Yankees and the New Yankees (aka the Dodgers) have in them. As has been pointed out many times lately, the Red Sox have essentially never come away with the prize when competing with the Yankees for a free agent. That includes the many decades of Red Sox ownership prior to the Henry group, and it includes the two decades and four titles of the Henry ownership group. This phenomenon is not limited to the Red Sox, of course. It includes the rest of baseball.

From 2006:
The Yankees, who, along with the Rangers, have acknowledged that they bid on Matsuzaka, had no reaction to the news media speculation that they might have been outbid for Matsuzaka.

"No one knows," general manager Brian Cashman said.

But Yankees manager Joe Torre was influenced by the media reports. When Torre was asked about Matsuzaka before his Safe at Home Foundation's charity event yesterday, he spoke as if the Yankees had lost out on Matsuzaka.

"We've put in a bid ourselves and we've come up short, evidently," Torre said. "He was obviously of great interest to us."
LINK

{Yes, under the old posting process Matsuzaka had to play for the team with the winning bid or stay in Japan.}
 

Rovin Romine

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BringBackMo

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That was NOT an auction. Back then, everyone submitted one bid and the team with the highest bid won, and then had rights to negotiate a contract with the player. That is not a free agent. Can you provide an example of an actual free agent?
 

BeantownIdaho

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I’m still not sure this has risen to the level of ‘report’ yet.
“According to a baseball source, the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to,” Cotillo wrote. seems like a report to me. What is your definition of a report?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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From 2006:


LINK

{Yes, under the old posting process Matsuzaka had to play for the team with the winning bid or stay in Japan.}
Apples and oranges. It's easy to win a blind bid by splashing the pot unexpectedly. You really think that if the Yankees knew the Sox were bidding $51M just for his rights, they wouldn't have bid $52M?
 

BringBackMo

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Kinda sorta: http://www.espn.com/page2/tvlistings/show38transcript.html

Not that it invalidates your point about YY. At some point a player with multiple competing financial offers might just choose the city/area of the country they like best.
OK, that was a really long article and hard to follow. My understanding is that the Yankees were not in on Manny, so the Sox weren't competing with them for him. If this article says otherwise then I stand corrected.