Two questions before a response:
1) Are you referring to Werner's comments where they are announcing that they are going to compete?
2) Do you really think the internal expectation of ownership was that they werent going to compete in 2022 and 2023? Ownership's behavior strongly indicates otherwise (e.g., Bloom being fired, a number of short term deals being signed, not being under the tax in 2022, spending 200M+ on a team generally). Otherwise I'm not sure I understand what's different now. They have been planning on competing since the beginning of 2021.
I think ownership has changed to some degree, but also the market has changed substantially (I think this is part of OCD's point)and they havent adjusted or arent willing to adjust to the new normal on player valuations and contract structures. They've been pretty consistent over their entire ownership that they do not like to hand out long term big money deals. Henry spoke long ago about not liking long deals that take players late into expected decline (and hell they waived Manny early on in their ownership to try to get out from the prior ownership's one large commitment). Unfortunately the free agent landscape is completely different than it was five plus years ago and certainly way different than what it was when they signed Price in late 2015. How many years does a 30 year old Price get in today's market? 9?
The four to seven year deals that they used to give out dont get them into the conversation with top talent so they'd rather chart a different course, which results in a meaningfully different strategy and comparative spend to any other big market spend who are much more willing to engage on long term big money deals. If people dont like recent history, the Sox in Henry's ownership have only handed out two deals for longer than 7 years (Pedroia, Devers); with one of those deals being incredibly team friendly at the time of signing (Pedroia). They have never gone longer than seven on a free agent (and only have three 7 year deals, including Gonzalez who was on the roster already). This is just a different approach then the other big market teams and ultimately will mean that they will spend less as its hard to push $250M+ (assuming Henry would even want to, I personally have my doubts he does) when you arent stacking long term big money deals together.
They've typically had one of these long term deals on the books at a time (Manny --> Pedroia --> Devers). For a long time, this wasnt really an issue because the number of deals in the market that were going more than say eight years was the absolute fringe of the market (for example David Price was an elite signing at the time and was only 7 years). I look at that history and see an ownership group that is happy to spend money on four to six year deals and potentially seven on the right player, but very uncomfortable with anything exceeding that. I think this is also an issue for pre-arb players as the deals that for example the Braves are handing out are often 7-10 year structures. When the Red Sox were signing similar deals back in the Theo era (Lester, Buchholz, 1st Pedroia deal) it was always in the 4-6 year range excluding club options (i.e., only the guaranteed years).
Perhaps the Devers deal is a sign they are willing to consider other longer term deals, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they dont get comfortable with those terms, they are really going to have to make hay on player development and the fickle mid market (which historically has had worse outcomes and lower EV) or they will continue to be all over place in whether they contend or not. Basically operate like a perhaps above average mid market team.
Listen, we have been round and round on this so many times. I understand that you are seriously doubtful that the Red Sox will sign players to long term deals anymore. I understand that you believe they will operate like an above-average mid-market team.
And you most certainly understand that I disagree with those sentiments. You know that I believe that the Red Sox see themselves as being in a contention window this season in a way that they did not going back to 2020, and will therefore do what they have always done when in a contention window, which is to say sign good free agents and/or trade for good players and extend them.
To your question number 1: I am basing my assumption that they will compete this year on the fact that they fired Chaim Bloom, as well as on Werner's comments, as well as on comments from Kennedy and Breslow that financial limitations will not be an issue, as well as on the series of moves they have so far made this off-season that seem to suggest bigger moves are still to come.
To your question number 2: I have said many many times in thread after thread that from 2020 on, which is to say coinciding with Bloom's hire, the Red Sox employed a stealth or hybrid rebuild that involved fielding high-variance rosters at the major league level. When things went right, as in 2021, those teams could compete. When things went wrong, as in 2022 and 2023, those teams could be bad. I do not believe that the expectations of ownership were that the Sox "weren't going to compete" in 2022 and 2023. I believe that their expectations were that, as with 2021, the team had some percentage chance of competing, while also having some percentage chance of crashing and burning. In other words, high variance. I also believe that ownership expected the minor league system to continue to improve in those seasons. In other words, hybrid compete/rebuild. Lastly, I believe that a second consecutive last-place finish blew up in ownership's face, and that Bloom was fired as a sacrificial lamb to the fan base.
You disagree with these things. I know that. I accept it. I have said to you and to many others that now that the Sox have decided to emerge from the rebuild they are committing to fielding a competitive club in 2024. And I have said that if we get to opening day and they do not have a roster that is built to compete for a playoff spot, then I will reevaluate my opinions. I just find it absurd that some here are loading up every thread with comments about how cheap the Sox are and how there's no plan. Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers does not mean that the Sox don't care about winning anymore. Let's see how things are looking on opening day.