Michael Sam is going to be drafted for his football ability, and because some team believes Sam's usefulness as a pass-rusher can help it win. How useful he can be is a question, because the sample size of really good play from him is small, and there are questions about his versatility. But he has the potential to help a team, and I've had him as a likely early third-day pick for a while. I still think that's a likely landing spot.
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• If you see a wide range in perception of Sam's draft stock, from mid-rounder to free agent -- that's totally normal. Just because I say he's a fourth- or fifth-round talent on my board doesn't mean that's gospel. Some could have him with a third-round grade, some a seventh. But grades don't happen until teams know how he fits. If a range seems huge, that's because it probably is, especially before the combine. Teams are still all over the map on many players.
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As for the player:
On ability, I see Sam as a guy likely to go in the fourth or fifth round. What he can do is pressure the QB, using good quickness to try to beat defenders off the edge (though he doesn't bend terribly well to turn the corner) and a high motor to finish plays and come up with sacks or tackles for loss maybe some others wouldn't get. He is not a refined pass-rusher at this point, but he's a capable one with some upside.
Where Sam's potential is a concern is he's undersized to project at 4-3 defensive end, and won't hold up in the run game in particular. However, we also haven't seen him play in reverse, or really drop back into coverage as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Can he learn that? Absolutely. But he'll go later in the draft because he's more of a situational pass-rusher now, a likelier bet to give you 20 snaps a game early in his career than 60. Some of his struggles at the Senior Bowl were just because he was doing things he hadn't been asked to do at Missouri. Those struggles are common, but they affect draft stock. I think Sam will test pretty well in Indy, running the 40-yard dash in about 4.7 seconds, with good upper body strength. What he'll need to prove is he can move well and play in space.
Comps are always difficult, but I was asked about some players who could have been seen in a similar light in terms of football skill set coming into the draft. Here are a few who succeeded in the NFL:
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Justin Houston was a better prospect than Sam. He went in Round 3.
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Cliff Avril was a better prospect than Sam. He went late in Round 3.
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Elvis Dumervil was a slightly better prospect than Sam. He went in Round 4.
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Robert Mathis was a comparable prospect on my board, and he went in Round 5.
I see Sam as a draft fit closer to where Dumervil or Mathis went. I really do believe his stock will be built mostly around what he can become as a football player. Evaluators and coaches are hired and fired based on their ability to field a team and win games, and ultimately that starts with getting the best players.
